Breeder's Cup 2018 at Churchill Downs

Gandolf

Gandolf

Leader of the Van Buren Boys
Finally, the Breeder's Cup has extricated itself from boutique shops and Santa Anita for a return to the twin spires at Churchill Downs. The last 2 times we were at Churchill in 2010-11 were two of the more memorable Cups, with Goldikova in her prime, Zenyatta getting nosed out by Blame, Drosselmeyer springing the Classic upset and great horses such as Royal Delta, Uncle Mo, Caleb's Posse, My Miss Aurelia and Stephanie's Kitten winning their races.

Full fields of 14 abound throughout the two day card, which has now been split into Juveniles Day on Friday and the older horses all competing on Saturday. Other than two time Arc winner Enable there are not a lot of superstar horses in the card's, which means the betting options figure to be outstanding on both days.

Final field and post positions get drawn tonight, but there are advance pps available at the Down the Stretch website.
 
Not a lot of hype surrounding this years Breeders Cup. There no real superstar horse that is gonna draw the eyes of Joe Public on Saturday. But there is one super filly coming across the pond in Enable. She is probably gonna be the focus for network coverage as she tries to become the first Arc winner to win the Breeders Cup Turf.

No real standouts in the Classic this year. There's no American Pharaoh or California Chrome or Arrogate. Justify is off to stud duty, so you have a wide open race. You have the morning line favorite in, Accelerate, who's beaten up on a really mediocre Handicap division this year. In the spring it was said this was the best group of 3 year olds in a long time, but here we are in November, and Catholic Boy and McKinzie are probably the best chances for the 3yo. McKinzie is intriguing as he was Bafferts top 3yo before he was sidelined by an injury. Then Justify came along and McKinzie was forgotten about. Still think he's up against it trying older for the first time and only one race since March.

If any of you played Thunder Snow in last years Derby, or Mendelssohn in this years Derby, guess what? You have that opportunity to do so again. They are both back at CD for the first time since both of their flops on the slop.

I've been slacking when it comes to following the main races in the summer and fall so far, so I'm gonna be playing catch up. Right now my main play is Limousine Liberal in the Sprint. Probably was in better form last year, but they are going to his home track this time where he has 8 starts with 6 wins and 1 second and had a dreadful trip last time in a 5 horse field, trying to run down a loose, Promises Fulfilled. Hopefully he gets a better trip on Saturday.

It will be a good two days of racing, despite lacking the star power of past editions.
 
Looks like Money Mike Smith and Bob Baffert are teamed up three times on Saturday, on favorite Marley's Freedom in the Filly & Mare Sprint (with a great pace setup), on 2nd choice Abel Tasman in the Distaff, and on wiseguy 6/1 shot McKinzie. Gotta think that pair will be showing up in the winner's circle at least once. Will be playing some prices around those horses.
 
Good amount of rain expected in Louisville today, should certainly impact the weekend turf races which will see a softer turf which for the most part will help aid the European horses. Disco Partner, the probable favorite in the Turf Sprint might be most impacted by this as he really does not appreciate ground with give in it.

A couple of favorites drawing poor posts should help get some prices home, Bellafina in the Juvenile Fillies, Anthony Van Dyke in the Juvenile Turf, Marley's Freedom in the Filly and Mare Sprint, Catalina Cruiser in the Dirt Mile, Monomoy Girl in the Distaff and Accelerate in the Classic
 
I'm not a great turf handicapper and will leave those races to the rest of you. I'll focus on the 2yo dirt races for Friday.

Race 7) Juvenile Fillies
#8 Sippican Harbor (12-1 ml) Looks like plenty of speed in here. Hoping for a pace meltdown to set up for this one.

Race 9) Juvenile
#11 Code Of Honor (5-1 ml) Hoping this guy is the forgotten horse in here as everyone will be focusing on Conplexity and Game Winner for Baffert and Chad Brown. This guy was no match for Complexity in the one-turn Champagne at Belmont last out. Code of Honor stumbled at the start losing a few lengths. Hoping Complexity won't get such an easy lead in here and Code of Honor can turn the tables.

I'm going to single these in the pick 4 starting in the 6th race and use a bunch in race 6 and 8.
 
Finishing off that late Pick 4 Friday:

Race 6) Juvenile Fillies Turf - Newspaperofrecord (2-1 ml) is considered the most like winner on Friday. The filly is being talked of in Lady Eli terms. Possible price horses include Euro shippers Just Wonderful (6-1) and The Mackem Bullet.

Race 8) Juvenile Turf - Anthony Van Dyck (4-1 ml) fits this race nicely with the anticipated soft turf. Same story with Line of Duty and at a better price (10-1). An intriguing price play is Benny, who won his turf debut at 6 furlongs going from last to first in stunning fashion and now tries 2 turns.
 
Code of Honor scratched out of the Juvy. Stage is set for Gamewinner vs Complexity, maybe a little Dueling tossed in.
 
With Code of Honor out, I can't see anyone outside of the top 2. Back to the drawing board.
 
Looking at it, Dueling makes sense. I certainly can't go for anything out of the Futurity at Keeneland and there's 4 of them in here. If Duelng wins, then the rest of this 2yo crop is in trouble, because Hollendorfer has a few better in his barn sitting this one out.
 
First BC race fixing to run. No idea how the turf course is gonna play. Should have plenty of give to it. Dirt course is drying out and the way Improbable got over it, this surface will be a non issue today.
 
Opening quarter for the Turf Sprint. 23.19. Wow. Slow. Final time 105 and change. Very slow.
 
Jaimer Spencer rode the 5 to win in the Natalma but ends up on the 14 here. Hmm? Although Buick doesn't hurt the 5.
 
Thanks, Aplous. Got lucky. didn't know if the 14 was gonna get up or not. Judging by Irad, you don't want to be on the rail.
 
Think Bellafina is the best in here. Worried there is too much speed in here. Taking a shot with the 8 Sippican Harbor $50 win/place
 
Agree Bellafina is deserved favorite and doesn't need the lead. Sippican Harbor should get the pace setup to make a race of it late
 
I said Improbable was the best performance we'd see today. That didn't age well. She is a monster.
 
Dead wrong there. Thought someone would hook Jaywalk, but she's too fast and good.
 
Of everyone running these two days, I felt the 14 here was most compromised by post position. Think he's much best, but I can't go for that post.

Small play on #5 Line of Duty.
 
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