Dodgers Will Force Braves to Walk Trail of Tears
The Braves begin a four-game set in Atlanta against the Dodgers on Thursday at 7:35 ET on the MLB Network. Key trends and match-up detail point to an LA victory.
Dodgers at Braves
MLB Pick: Dodgers 1H
LA’s Rich Hill (3-4, 4.26 ERA) is a career second-half pitcher. After the All-Star Break, his career ERA is 3.59 and career FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) 3.58. Conversely, his ERA and FIP are both well over 4.00 in the first half. Hill relies primarily on a fastball-curveball combo. Both pitches make up 97% of his arsenal. He achieves many strikeouts without much velocity. Instead, he trusts spin rate, changing the batter’s eye level, the velocity differential of his pitches, and their intense movement. These elements create the same effect of strong velocity: making batters struggle to adjust to and keep up with his pitches.
Compared with 650 pitchers, HIll’s fastball ranks in the top 50 in spin rate. Spin makes a fastball look like it’s rising so that batters tend to swing underneath it and hit a fly ball or whiff. Hill’s curveball is his most famous pitch. It ranks 16th in spin rate out of 378 pitchers. It’s his favorite pitch to throw with two strikes and the one that has the highest strikeout rate. His fastball and curve play well off each other. He tends to elevate the former and keep the latter down in the zone so that the batter has to adjust his eye level. But he’s not afraid to surprise batters even more by placing his curve in the middle or upper parts of the zone. Furthermore, their 15 mph velocity differential entices batters to swing ahead of his curveballs and fall behind his fastballs. Lastly, the strong horizontal and vertical movement of both pitches makes them elusive.
When Hill is on his game, he has these different elements working for him. Besides the fact that he is at his best in the second half of seasons, the Braves are 2-5 in their last seven home games. Also, Hill tends to do better against left-handed batters. They’re hitting .214 and slugging .268 against him, managing only three extra-base hits in 70 total batters faced. Hill matches up well against the Braves, whose best two hitters are left-handed. Lastly, based on the metric SLG-xSLG, which compares a team’s actual slugging rate with what it should be based on quality of contact, the Braves are the second-most overachieving team against lefties and the second-most against HIll’s top two pitches, the fastball and curve from lefties, so they are statistically due to regress.
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Atlanta’s Anibal Sanchez (5-2, 2.76 ERA) has been pitching worse than it appears on the surface. His FIP is 3.88. He’s been benefitting from a BABIP (batting average of balls in play) .57 lower than his career average and by stranding baserunners at an unsustainably high 82.8% rate.
Sanchez relies on a fastball-cutter-change combo. He throws all three pitches with between 20% and 30% frequency. His fastball is his most vulnerable pitch, which is problematic because it’s his favorite pitch with a 0-0 or even count. Opponents are slugging .674 against it. Even though opponents are metrically underachieving against his change-up, I think it will continue to do well because he is locating it more frequently in the lowest row of the zone. But his cutter is nothing special in terms of location, velocity, or movement, compared with his career averages. Opponents are strongly underachieving against it based on quality of contact and his opposing slugging rate against this pitch will rise.
The Dodgers hit Sanchez well. In 75 career at-bats, they’re batting .387 and slugging .693. Watch for Manny Machado, who is 6-for-12 with a double and two homers against him. The Dodgers rank ninth in slugging against Sanchez’ top three pitches, the fastball, cutter, and change-up from righties, and are metrically strongly underachieving. Since they woke up from their April and May slump, they’re 7-1 in their last eight road openers.
The Braves begin a four-game set in Atlanta against the Dodgers on Thursday at 7:35 ET on the MLB Network. Key trends and match-up detail point to an LA victory.
Dodgers at Braves
MLB Pick: Dodgers 1H
LA’s Rich Hill (3-4, 4.26 ERA) is a career second-half pitcher. After the All-Star Break, his career ERA is 3.59 and career FIP (like ERA, but factors out luck) 3.58. Conversely, his ERA and FIP are both well over 4.00 in the first half. Hill relies primarily on a fastball-curveball combo. Both pitches make up 97% of his arsenal. He achieves many strikeouts without much velocity. Instead, he trusts spin rate, changing the batter’s eye level, the velocity differential of his pitches, and their intense movement. These elements create the same effect of strong velocity: making batters struggle to adjust to and keep up with his pitches.
Compared with 650 pitchers, HIll’s fastball ranks in the top 50 in spin rate. Spin makes a fastball look like it’s rising so that batters tend to swing underneath it and hit a fly ball or whiff. Hill’s curveball is his most famous pitch. It ranks 16th in spin rate out of 378 pitchers. It’s his favorite pitch to throw with two strikes and the one that has the highest strikeout rate. His fastball and curve play well off each other. He tends to elevate the former and keep the latter down in the zone so that the batter has to adjust his eye level. But he’s not afraid to surprise batters even more by placing his curve in the middle or upper parts of the zone. Furthermore, their 15 mph velocity differential entices batters to swing ahead of his curveballs and fall behind his fastballs. Lastly, the strong horizontal and vertical movement of both pitches makes them elusive.
When Hill is on his game, he has these different elements working for him. Besides the fact that he is at his best in the second half of seasons, the Braves are 2-5 in their last seven home games. Also, Hill tends to do better against left-handed batters. They’re hitting .214 and slugging .268 against him, managing only three extra-base hits in 70 total batters faced. Hill matches up well against the Braves, whose best two hitters are left-handed. Lastly, based on the metric SLG-xSLG, which compares a team’s actual slugging rate with what it should be based on quality of contact, the Braves are the second-most overachieving team against lefties and the second-most against HIll’s top two pitches, the fastball and curve from lefties, so they are statistically due to regress.
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Atlanta’s Anibal Sanchez (5-2, 2.76 ERA) has been pitching worse than it appears on the surface. His FIP is 3.88. He’s been benefitting from a BABIP (batting average of balls in play) .57 lower than his career average and by stranding baserunners at an unsustainably high 82.8% rate.
Sanchez relies on a fastball-cutter-change combo. He throws all three pitches with between 20% and 30% frequency. His fastball is his most vulnerable pitch, which is problematic because it’s his favorite pitch with a 0-0 or even count. Opponents are slugging .674 against it. Even though opponents are metrically underachieving against his change-up, I think it will continue to do well because he is locating it more frequently in the lowest row of the zone. But his cutter is nothing special in terms of location, velocity, or movement, compared with his career averages. Opponents are strongly underachieving against it based on quality of contact and his opposing slugging rate against this pitch will rise.
The Dodgers hit Sanchez well. In 75 career at-bats, they’re batting .387 and slugging .693. Watch for Manny Machado, who is 6-for-12 with a double and two homers against him. The Dodgers rank ninth in slugging against Sanchez’ top three pitches, the fastball, cutter, and change-up from righties, and are metrically strongly underachieving. Since they woke up from their April and May slump, they’re 7-1 in their last eight road openers.
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