Bowls Im betting...

vanzack

vanzack

Pretty much a regular
Hey guys, Im not too big on writeups, but will post my bowl plays as we go and give a couple of one liner reasons....

All games between 1 and 4 units...

1. Wake -3 (3 units) - right off the bat will be one of my big ones for the bowl season - rematch of a game that Wake lost 24-17 but had 6 turnovers at home. 3 weeks to prepare for the triple option makes all the difference, including the fact that they played it already which adds a week of preparation. Wake has the size and speed advantage all over the field - swank and skinner are totally healthy - wake rolls here.

2. Fresno -2.5 (1 unit), just a lean here, had fresno at -4 so I will bite at -2.5.

3. Memphis +12.5 (1 unit) - also really just a lean - I had this one at -9 even with a 75% HFA for USF.

4. AZ -3 (waiting on line possibly -2.5 - 2 units) - like AZ here, feel the motivation is right and this team will not be disappointed in this spot. BYU lack of quality on their schedule, and lack of a quality win (maybe the UCLA rout), put me on a pumped up AZ team. I like their offensive balance and I think BYU will have a hard time keeping AZ offense off the field.

5. Troy -4 (1.5 units) - Troy better in almost all aspects here - battle tested - played the big boys - will not be a letdown for them.

This gets us through the W/E.... Will update the rest of the games later...

:cheers:
 
good to see you Van.

I know you're a strong proponent of flat-betting. I assume you move to a tiered form of betting on the bowl games so that you can have action on every game?

Good luck this bowl season.
 
Joining you on Wake. Bowl games are different from regular seson. I look for a reason to play a team , and one reason is in those rare cases where teams met earlier in the season, lean toward the team that lost.
I haven't gotten to the others yet, but suspect you have the right side on Fresno.
GL
 
horses said:
good to see you Van.

I know you're a strong proponent of flat-betting. I assume you move to a tiered form of betting on the bowl games so that you can have action on every game?

Good luck this bowl season.
Click to expand...


Basically exactly right....

I end up betting most of the games, and 1 unit games are not games I would normally bet...

:cheers:
 
Joe Public said:
Welcome back, Van.
Click to expand...

Thanks man - Ive been around - always lurking sometimes posting.

I go in cycles, there are times that I cant resist the action of being the smartest guy in the room at covers (not bragging, actually that is calling myself somewhat of a moron) - but it gets old so fast. When i need some brain power this is the place, and when I need to practice my cynicism and WWE writing skills - I go over there. But honestly, it is so brutal there now, the average gambling IQ there is sub retarded bordering on a vegetative state - and it is often like trying to teach physics to Beetlejuice - and like I said my persistence is more a reflection on my own character flaws than the actual attraction of talking to hundreds of morons at once.

I hope to win more bowl games than last year - which was exactly 0 (I pushed one) - and gave up after going 0-7-1 in the first 8.

GL

:cheers:
 
Nice .......

All over wake as well for many of same reasons.. look forward to the rest of your plays.

gl this bowl season , Van
 
GL to you. I'm also on Fresno, Ari, and looking at Troy. I think Troy is the better team as well. Against you on Wake. I think the game is closer than people think and I like taking the points when that's the case. GL:shake:
 
GL. You and I by-and-large agree on those games, although I think maybe I like the OVER in Fresno/C State better than either side.
 
Good luck this bowl season, van. good to see you around...:cheers:

Agree with wake wholeheartedly (and im going to that game)..... the triple option really loses its deceptiveness its second time around.
scouting reports and reviewing the tapes of all the offensive looks navy brought in the first matchup will have wake ready for it the second time.
and you are right in that in the first game turnovers did wake in, and an embarassing loss @ home as 16 point favs gotta think they will get their revenge here on the team that handed them their first loss of the season...

only thing that worries me is their reliance on swank which i think has contributed to their struggles to convert in the red zone...this team does not like touchdowns. had a big bet in that FSU game when it seemed like they were in the red zone the whole 2nd half but could not find the end zone. luckilly their defense won it for them as they held FSU to 3 and were throwing so many different looks at ponder and richardson that they had them both confused and forced 7 turnovers..

also will be on both AZ and Troy.
Memphis seems to be a forum favorite so I may take the points w/ them as well....
Fresno - no opinion, coin flip and want no part of that game.
 
I am loving your card VAN. I will probably be adding Wake and AZ soon. I agree that AZ is definitely the more motivated team in that matchup with BYU.
 
vanzack said:
Thanks man - Ive been around - always lurking sometimes posting.

I go in cycles, there are times that I cant resist the action of being the smartest guy in the room at covers (not bragging, actually that is calling myself somewhat of a moron) - but it gets old so fast. When i need some brain power this is the place, and when I need to practice my cynicism and WWE writing skills - I go over there. But honestly, it is so brutal there now, the average gambling IQ there is sub retarded bordering on a vegetative state - and it is often like trying to teach physics to Beetlejuice - and like I said my persistence is more a reflection on my own character flaws than the actual attraction of talking to hundreds of morons at once.

I hope to win more bowl games than last year - which was exactly 0 (I pushed one) - and gave up after going 0-7-1 in the first 8.

GL

:cheers:
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:36_11_6:

Funny stuff van!

I stopped posting there over a year ago. Just couldn't deal with all the BS anymore. I'm glad RJ & BAR pointed me in this direction. I love how most posters here ask why you make certain plays, or post their reasons for disagreeing, rather than simply calling your play stupid (if they're going the other way).

With CTG, it's definitely quality over quantity. I'd rather have a thread with 10 quality cappers than 100 idiots.
 
For what it's worth .. i am a moron and if you post over here more i can make a few hundred posts to make up the difference on the moron count ...........
 
5 up and 3.5 down so far - and with 4 out of the first 5 bowl games going down to the last 2 minutes I guess I will take that....

Wake -3 (3 units) win
Fresno -2.5 (1 unit) loss
Memphis +12.5 (1 unit) loss
AZ -3 (2 units) win
Troy -4 (1.5 units) loss

Boise +3 (2 units) vs TCU. I see this as a very even matchup, and will take the 3 in a game I have Boise as a slight fav in. Both defenses are as advertised, conference schedule favors TCU but Boise win at Oregon in a game that was not as close as the final score is important here. Im not buying that boise will be down for this game, I think the motivation on both sides will be high and both teams will be jacked up. Special teams very similar, with a slight offensive edge to boise. TCU without one of their best defensive players in Henson.

ND -1.5 vs Hawaii (1 unit). Slight lean here to ND. Had them as -3.

CMU -6.5 vs FAU (2 units). At first I was bigger on CMU, but after digging in to some stats have downgraded it. CMU defense is just so bad and FAU can score, I just cant put too much on a team that ranks in the bottom 10% in NCAAF in almost every category of defense. One interesting thing to watch in this game, FAU punting game is one of the worst in the country, and CMU is the best punt return team in the NCAAF, the only issue is that CMU has to actually make FAU punt to take advantage of this. High scoring win here for CMU, hopefully they dont let FAU sneak in and keep it close.

Weekend games up soon.....
 
All I ask is that there are a few games coming up that do not go down to the last play and cause me to nearly have a heart attack.

BTW - I thought FOR SURE that Boise was going to let TCU score down by 1.

I knew I was going to get fucked there.

If Boises coach didnt do it, who is ever going to do it? I wonder if they even thought about it? It was absolutely 100% the right thing to do.....
 
vanzack said:
BTW - I thought FOR SURE that Boise was going to let TCU score down by 1.

I knew I was going to get fucked there.

If Boises coach didnt do it, who is ever going to do it? I wonder if they even thought about it? It was absolutely 100% the right thing to do.....
Click to expand...

Agree, but just curious, do you recall any coach doing it?

To degenerate gamblers this is second nature. To college FB coaches the last thing they ever think of is a situation in which they give up a deliberate score.. But I guarantee there is a ball-less grad asst at his side that is thinking the same thing we are, probably bought the hook, and just can't bring himself to make the suggestion to the big man.

Bottom line is- we watch a different game than they do. Reality is- our game is more precise than theirs.

:cheers:
 
tee*dub said:
Agree, but just curious, do you recall any coach doing it?

To degenerate gamblers this is second nature. To college FB coaches the last thing they ever think of is a situation in which they give up a deliberate score.. But I guarantee there is a ball-less grad asst at his side that is thinking the same thing we are, probably bought the hook, and just can't bring himself to make the suggestion to the big man.

Bottom line is- we watch a different game than they do. Reality is- our game is more precise than theirs.

:cheers:
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I havent seen this exact scenario done in NCAAF.

There were 2 times tonight that it could have been done....

1. 2.06 left, Boise has 3 timeouts, TCU at the 50.

2. 1.47 left, Boise just threw the INT, TCU has it at the Boise 37 and Boise still had 1 timeout.

With 2.06 left it is maybe questionable, but with 1.47 left it is an ABSOLUTE NO BRAINER. Instead, they dont do it, and get the ball back with 6 seconds. You have 2 choices, get the ball back with 6 seconds down by 1, or go down by 8 and have about 1.40 and 1 timeout. That is a no brainer.
 
vanzack said:
I havent seen this exact scenario done in NCAAF.

There were 2 times tonight that it could have been done....

1. 2.06 left, Boise has 3 timeouts, TCU at the 50.

2. 1.47 left, Boise just threw the INT, TCU has it at the Boise 37 and Boise still had 1 timeout.

With 2.06 left it is maybe questionable, but with 1.47 left it is an ABSOLUTE NO BRAINER. Instead, they dont do it, and get the ball back with 6 seconds. You have 2 choices, get the ball back with 6 seconds down by 1, or go down by 8 and have about 1.40 and 1 timeout. That is a no brainer.
Click to expand...

You are assuming that the opposing runner won't pull a westbrook and down it at the 1... Thats a stretch I know but no more a stretch than your original suggestion.. Neither will ever happen in CFB. :popcorn:
 
tee*dub said:
You are assuming that the opposing runner won't pull a westbrook and down it at the 1... Thats a stretch I know but no more a stretch than your original suggestion.. Neither will ever happen in CFB. :popcorn:
Click to expand...

I am assuming this, and watching that game there was NO WAY before the first Boise timeout that he would have gone down. After the first maybe - BUT YOU ARE LOSING NOTHING BY TRYING.

Yes, he might sit down. So what? You have given your only shot to win. And BTW - do the math on him sitting down inside of the 10 yard line. With 2.06 left, and boise had 3 timeouts, if he sits down at the 5, do the math - TCU would be forced to either kick a FG or score a TD or give the ball back with more time than they did. Either way, it is better for Boise.

But my point is that even if he sits down you have lost NOTHING by trying.

:cheers:
 
i really thought when that WR slipped on that 3rd down slant that Boise State was gonna pull a miracle pick and return it, but after that 1st quarter everything seemed to bounce TCU's way.

...still pissed about that loss but i think i'm gonna make some small plays (like on ND for instance). I don't think i'd normally play ND, but i think it has value, yet i'm not interested in laying a full unit on the Irish playing on the road.

good luck van, good to see you
 
vanzack said:
I am assuming this, and watching that game there was NO WAY before the first Boise timeout that he would have gone down. After the first maybe - BUT YOU ARE LOSING NOTHING BY TRYING.

Yes, he might sit down. So what? You have given your only shot to win. And BTW - do the math on him sitting down inside of the 10 yard line. With 2.06 left, and boise had 3 timeouts, if he sits down at the 5, do the math - TCU would be forced to either kick a FG or score a TD or give the ball back with more time than they did. Either way, it is better for Boise.

But my point is that even if he sits down you have lost NOTHING by trying.

:cheers:
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i know you love this "let the other team score" strategy during certain end-of-game scenarios. and the 2 examples listed above qualify, under this school of thought (not to insult you in any way, but as you know, you are neither the first, nor the last, person to suggest this. it is not a novel strategy).

however. i truly believe that a well-coached team (and that mostly refers to OCs and position coaches) would destroy that strategy. especially moreso now with the recent pub that westbrook got for sitting down on the 5yd line in that iggles-cowboys NFL game.

if the defense tried to "let them score" the skill players should be coached to sit down. and not necessarily inside the 5yd line either. from my VERY limited experience with having friends at a D1aa school (so it isn't big leagues, of course, but it was before the whole stupid FBS/FCS designation), they were told this by their coaches in certain situations. again, this is limited, anecdotal evidence at an institution where these guys were truly student-athletes. and they didn't qualify for the 1aa playoffs, if you understand what i am saying.

now, with the flashier schools, these players may not necessarily listen to their coaches, of course. which is why i think it would work at some schools and not at others. the IQ and/or discipline and/or flashiness of a team and it's skill players in particular would determine this. would these TCU players do this? unclear.

but the point is this. you TRY to STOP tcu with 2 minutes left and 3 TOs left at midfield. NO BRAINER here. if you get a 3/out then you only have to go 30-60 yds for a game-winning FG, with the college-rule clock. you lose NOTHING by trying this. you potentially lose EVERYTHING by giving them a 1st down and hoping that they take the bait and score.

just my 2 cents here. i am occasionally humored by your posts and in general enjoy your contributions to this and other forums...
:shake:
 
GWarner27 said:
i really thought when that WR slipped on that 3rd down slant that Boise State was gonna pull a miracle pick and return it, but after that 1st quarter everything seemed to bounce TCU's way.

...still pissed about that loss but i think i'm gonna make some small plays (like on ND for instance). I don't think i'd normally play ND, but i think it has value, yet i'm not interested in laying a full unit on the Irish playing on the road.

good luck van, good to see you
Click to expand...


ponderous play call there btw. ..... even if he catches the ball he will likely be held short of the first down. the incompletion stopped the clock.
 
7 up, 3.5 down so far....

1. Wake -3 (3 units) win
2. Fresno -2.5 (1 unit) loss
3. Memphis +12.5 (1 unit) loss
4. AZ -3 (2 units) win
5. Troy -4 (1.5 units) loss
6. Boise +3.5 (2 units) win

Pending:
7. ND -1.5 (1 unit)
8. CMU -6.5 (2 units)

Games through Sunday:

9. WVU ML -115 (2 units) - Key to this game will be WV ability to run the ball, and I think they will be able to do it enough to score in the 20's which will be enough. UNC just doesnt have the offense to put up big numbers on a very solid D like WVU - I like the fact that UNC is balanced and I normally dont like betting on a one dimensional offense in bowl games like WVU - but UNC being in the 80's in the nation in both running and passing is the key here. Special teams advantage to WVU too - better kicker and much better punting team - WVU net punting 3rd in the nation and UNC towards the bottom. WVU wins 24-14.

10. FSU -5.5 (3 units) - Fade #1 of the big ten here.... FSU should run this team out of the stadium. FSU will be the fastest defense Wisky has seen this yr, and the pedestrian FSU offense will score enough to win comfortably. FSU advantage all over the ball, including special teams. Wisconsin will have to run, and when they cant or if they fall behind and have to throw - FSU will be blitzing and pressuring wisky to the point that they wont know what to do. FSU 28-10.

11. Miami vs Cal - no opinion here at all - cant pull the trigger on UM with Harris at QB - and cant give 8 either.... No play.

12. Louisiana Tech PK (3 units) - another big one here - this matches LT running game against a subpar NIll rushing defense. LT runs and runs and runs - and they are good at it - and I just see them having plenty of success. On the other side, NI will probably look to throw - and after watching their QB Harnish many times this year - I just dont think they will be able to do it consistently even against the putrid secondary of LT. LT can defense the run, and that is what NI would want to do first - but I think they will be forced to prove they can move the ball through the air and I will take my chances they wont be able to do it. Special teams advantage to LT here too....

That takes us through the W/E - GL all.
 
i'm thinking of changing my bowl confidence pick to La Tech after hearing so many good things about them. I was under the impression Taylor Bennett was still starting and he is the worst player of all time
 
always enjoy reading your reasoning even if I disagree with the pick...GL the rest of the week...
 
13 up, 5.5 down so far...

1. Wake -3 (3 units) win
2. Fresno -2.5 (1 unit) loss
3. Memphis +12.5 (1 unit) loss
4. AZ -3 (2 units) win
5. Troy -4 (1.5 units) loss
6. Boise +3.5 (2 units) win
7. ND -1.5 (1 unit) win
8. CMU -6.5 (2 units) loss
9. WVU ML -115 (2 units) win
10. FSU -5.5 (3 units) win

Pending:

12. Louisiana Tech PK (3 units)

Will post this weeks games later today.

GL all.
 
13 up, 5.5 down so far...

1. Wake -3 (3 units) win
2. Fresno -2.5 (1 unit) loss
3. Memphis +12.5 (1 unit) loss
4. AZ -3 (2 units) win
5. Troy -4 (1.5 units) loss
6. Boise +3.5 (2 units) win
7. ND -1.5 (1 unit) win
8. CMU -6.5 (2 units) loss
9. WVU ML -115 (2 units) win
10. FSU -5.5 (3 units) win

Pending:
11. Louisiana Tech PK (3 units)

Games this week:
Sorry, dont have time for writeups.....
12. Rutgers -6.5 (will wait until close to gametime for a lower line) (1.5 units) -
13. Missouri / NW - no play - cant get a read on this one
14. Maryland +2 (2 units)
15. W Mich +2 (1 unit)
16. Oregon +3 (1 unit)
17. Houston -3.5 (2 units)
18. Pitt +2.5 (3 units)
19. Vandy +3.5 (1 unit)
20. Kansas -8.5 (1 unit)
21. LSU +4.5 (1 unit)


Will update the rest soon....
 
vanzack said:
7 up, 3.5 down so far....

1. Wake -3 (3 units) win
2. Fresno -2.5 (1 unit) loss
3. Memphis +12.5 (1 unit) loss
4. AZ -3 (2 units) win
5. Troy -4 (1.5 units) loss
6. Boise +3.5 (2 units) win

Pending:
7. ND -1.5 (1 unit)
8. CMU -6.5 (2 units)

Games through Sunday:

9. WVU ML -115 (2 units) - Key to this game will be WV ability to run the ball, and I think they will be able to do it enough to score in the 20's which will be enough. UNC just doesnt have the offense to put up big numbers on a very solid D like WVU - I like the fact that UNC is balanced and I normally dont like betting on a one dimensional offense in bowl games like WVU - but UNC being in the 80's in the nation in both running and passing is the key here. Special teams advantage to WVU too - better kicker and much better punting team - WVU net punting 3rd in the nation and UNC towards the bottom. WVU wins 24-14.

10. FSU -5.5 (3 units) - Fade #1 of the big ten here.... FSU should run this team out of the stadium. FSU will be the fastest defense Wisky has seen this yr, and the pedestrian FSU offense will score enough to win comfortably. FSU advantage all over the ball, including special teams. Wisconsin will have to run, and when they cant or if they fall behind and have to throw - FSU will be blitzing and pressuring wisky to the point that they wont know what to do. FSU 28-10.

11. Miami vs Cal - no opinion here at all - cant pull the trigger on UM with Harris at QB - and cant give 8 either.... No play.

12. Louisiana Tech PK (3 units) - another big one here - this matches LT running game against a subpar NIll rushing defense. LT runs and runs and runs - and they are good at it - and I just see them having plenty of success. On the other side, NI will probably look to throw - and after watching their QB Harnish many times this year - I just dont think they will be able to do it consistently even against the putrid secondary of LT. LT can defense the run, and that is what NI would want to do first - but I think they will be forced to prove they can move the ball through the air and I will take my chances they wont be able to do it. Special teams advantage to LT here too....

That takes us through the W/E - GL all.
Click to expand...



:smiley_acbe:
 
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