Bowling for Schrute Bucks
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Indiana -2.5 vs Duke (71.5)
SOS: Indiana 61 and Duke 62
Coaching Changes: Duke loses OC Scottie Montgomery to become ECU Head Coach
Injuries: Duke #2 tackler Cash out; IU leading rusher Howard ? and 3 contributors at DB appear to be out
Motivation: Even as Duke should be motivated to win one but Indiana should be pretty pumped to be playing in one
Past Bowl Performances: Duke has lost bowl games each of the past 3 seasons with the last 2 being by 5 points and totals of 82, 100, 69. Indiana's first bowl game since 2007
Matchups: Duke is 18th in pace while Indiana is 12th so there should be some plays here. Indiana runs 56% while Duke passes 52% of the time. Indiana averages 0.7 more ypp on offense but gives up 0.8 more ypp on defense. Indiana is 75 against the pass while Duke is 103 so there should be some yards in the air here. Duke is 14th against the run while Indiana is 96th so Duke may be able to force the Hoosiers to toss it more than they normally like to which again leads me to look at the over. Indiana has gone over this total in 5 of their past 6 games. Duke has gone over the number in 3 of their past 6 games. Team totals should be Indiana 37 and Duke 35. Indiana has gone over 37 points in 5/11 games this year while Duke has given up more than 37 in 3/11 this year. Indiana has given up more than 35 points 5 times this year and opposing teams have hit 35 twice. Duke has scored more than 35 points in only 3/11 games this year.
Leans: played Duke TT; Over 71 (weather pending); Might add some props
Plays: Duke TT O34.5
SOS: Indiana 61 and Duke 62
Coaching Changes: Duke loses OC Scottie Montgomery to become ECU Head Coach
Injuries: Duke #2 tackler Cash out; IU leading rusher Howard ? and 3 contributors at DB appear to be out
Motivation: Even as Duke should be motivated to win one but Indiana should be pretty pumped to be playing in one
Past Bowl Performances: Duke has lost bowl games each of the past 3 seasons with the last 2 being by 5 points and totals of 82, 100, 69. Indiana's first bowl game since 2007
Matchups: Duke is 18th in pace while Indiana is 12th so there should be some plays here. Indiana runs 56% while Duke passes 52% of the time. Indiana averages 0.7 more ypp on offense but gives up 0.8 more ypp on defense. Indiana is 75 against the pass while Duke is 103 so there should be some yards in the air here. Duke is 14th against the run while Indiana is 96th so Duke may be able to force the Hoosiers to toss it more than they normally like to which again leads me to look at the over. Indiana has gone over this total in 5 of their past 6 games. Duke has gone over the number in 3 of their past 6 games. Team totals should be Indiana 37 and Duke 35. Indiana has gone over 37 points in 5/11 games this year while Duke has given up more than 37 in 3/11 this year. Indiana has given up more than 35 points 5 times this year and opposing teams have hit 35 twice. Duke has scored more than 35 points in only 3/11 games this year.
Leans: played Duke TT; Over 71 (weather pending); Might add some props
Plays: Duke TT O34.5
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Tulsa +14 vs Virginia Tech (61.5)
SOS: VT 36 and Tulsa 87
Coaching Changes: Last game for Beamer, No changes at Tulsa
Injuries: none significant
Motivation: Hokies will be plenty motivated but you have to think Tulsa will be ready to go as well against a P5 opponent
Past Bowl Performances: Beamer is 10-12 in bowl games; Tulsa has won 4 of past 5 bowl games but this is Montgomery's first
Matchups: Vastly different SOS here which is an advantage to VT. Tulsa is first in pace of play while VT is 54th. VT runs 56% of the time while Tulsa runs 54%. Tulsa averages 1.1 more ypp on offense and gives up 1.0 more ypp on defense but again that is against a far weaker schedule. VT is 82nd against the rush while Tulsa is 109 so both teams have hope to move it on the ground. VT is 37 against the pass while Tulsa is 108. Brewer is set to go for VT which is big for them as they really don't have anything else at QB. VT has only covered 14 three times this year...easily against Purdue, by 1 point against NCSU and by 2 points against BC. Tulsa failed to cover 14 points against Navy and Memphis and they pushed this number against Oklahoma and Houston...you could argue all four of those teams are better than the Hokies. Regarding the total, VT went over the number 4 times this year but 3 of those times were in September and one was against an AAC member in ECU. Tulsa has gone over this number fairly easily in their past 6 games. Team totals are VT 37.5 and Tulsa 24. The Hokies only hit 38 or more against Duke and Purdue while Tulsa allowed 6/12 opponents to go over the number. VT gave up more than 24 points 5 times this year and had the number pushed once. Teams they held under this number were UVA, GT, BC, NCSU and Pitt...not exactly offensive juggernauts though NCSU and Pitt did have some decent games. Navy and ECU were the only teams to hold Tulsa to under 24 points.
Leans: weather looks like rain and storms so will wait to lock anything in but leans are Tulsa +14.5 (if I can find it) and Tulsa TT O24
Plays: none yet
SOS: VT 36 and Tulsa 87
Coaching Changes: Last game for Beamer, No changes at Tulsa
Injuries: none significant
Motivation: Hokies will be plenty motivated but you have to think Tulsa will be ready to go as well against a P5 opponent
Past Bowl Performances: Beamer is 10-12 in bowl games; Tulsa has won 4 of past 5 bowl games but this is Montgomery's first
Matchups: Vastly different SOS here which is an advantage to VT. Tulsa is first in pace of play while VT is 54th. VT runs 56% of the time while Tulsa runs 54%. Tulsa averages 1.1 more ypp on offense and gives up 1.0 more ypp on defense but again that is against a far weaker schedule. VT is 82nd against the rush while Tulsa is 109 so both teams have hope to move it on the ground. VT is 37 against the pass while Tulsa is 108. Brewer is set to go for VT which is big for them as they really don't have anything else at QB. VT has only covered 14 three times this year...easily against Purdue, by 1 point against NCSU and by 2 points against BC. Tulsa failed to cover 14 points against Navy and Memphis and they pushed this number against Oklahoma and Houston...you could argue all four of those teams are better than the Hokies. Regarding the total, VT went over the number 4 times this year but 3 of those times were in September and one was against an AAC member in ECU. Tulsa has gone over this number fairly easily in their past 6 games. Team totals are VT 37.5 and Tulsa 24. The Hokies only hit 38 or more against Duke and Purdue while Tulsa allowed 6/12 opponents to go over the number. VT gave up more than 24 points 5 times this year and had the number pushed once. Teams they held under this number were UVA, GT, BC, NCSU and Pitt...not exactly offensive juggernauts though NCSU and Pitt did have some decent games. Navy and ECU were the only teams to hold Tulsa to under 24 points.
Leans: weather looks like rain and storms so will wait to lock anything in but leans are Tulsa +14.5 (if I can find it) and Tulsa TT O24
Plays: none yet
Nebraska +6.5 vs UCLA (61)
SOS: UCLA 26 and Nebraska 51
Coaching Changes: none but Riley on hot seat into next year
Injuries: Nebby down 2 moderate contributors in CB Rose and WR Moore; No new significant injuries for UCLA
Motivation: HFA here for UCLA but Nebby should be ready to play with everyone talking shit about them being undeserving (which they are)
Past Bowl Performances: Nebby 1st bowl under Riley; Mora lost his first bowl but has won the last 2 and gone over this total in 2/3
Matchups: UCLA is 29th in pace while Nebraska is 58th so the pace should be pretty quick here. UCLA averages 0.1 more ypp offensively and gives up 1.1 less ypp defensively against a tougher schedule. UCLA passes 52% while Nebraska passes 51% so they have fairly similar footprints. UCLA has the 15th best pass defense while Nebraska comes in at 74th and with UCLA having a more dangerous QB I see it as a pretty big advantage to the Bruins here. Nebraska is 30th against the run while UCLA comes in at 64th so it would behoove the Huskers to try to get thinks going on the ground early here. Given the stats, the SOS difference and the HFA I do initially lean UCLA here. Considering them ATS and in a ML parlay or tease. Total is 61 with Nebby TT 27.5 and UCLA TT 33.5. UCLA has gone under this number in 3/4 with the other one being a push. However in the 4 games prior to that they went over in 3/4 with the other being a push. UCLA and this total seems to be largely determined by the quality of the opponents offense. Nebraska comes in at 5-6 against this total. In conference play UCLA only held 3 teams under 27.5 while Nebraska went over 27.5 a total of 7 times against Power 5 squads. UCLA went over 33.5 points in 6/11 against P5 teams while Nebraska only allowed 3/10 teams to go over 33.5 points. However Nebraska didn't exactly face a load of offenses as potent as what UCLA will bring to the table.
Leans: Over 61, UCLA -6.5, UCLA ML in parlay, Nebraska TT Over
Plays: none yet
SOS: UCLA 26 and Nebraska 51
Coaching Changes: none but Riley on hot seat into next year
Injuries: Nebby down 2 moderate contributors in CB Rose and WR Moore; No new significant injuries for UCLA
Motivation: HFA here for UCLA but Nebby should be ready to play with everyone talking shit about them being undeserving (which they are)
Past Bowl Performances: Nebby 1st bowl under Riley; Mora lost his first bowl but has won the last 2 and gone over this total in 2/3
Matchups: UCLA is 29th in pace while Nebraska is 58th so the pace should be pretty quick here. UCLA averages 0.1 more ypp offensively and gives up 1.1 less ypp defensively against a tougher schedule. UCLA passes 52% while Nebraska passes 51% so they have fairly similar footprints. UCLA has the 15th best pass defense while Nebraska comes in at 74th and with UCLA having a more dangerous QB I see it as a pretty big advantage to the Bruins here. Nebraska is 30th against the run while UCLA comes in at 64th so it would behoove the Huskers to try to get thinks going on the ground early here. Given the stats, the SOS difference and the HFA I do initially lean UCLA here. Considering them ATS and in a ML parlay or tease. Total is 61 with Nebby TT 27.5 and UCLA TT 33.5. UCLA has gone under this number in 3/4 with the other one being a push. However in the 4 games prior to that they went over in 3/4 with the other being a push. UCLA and this total seems to be largely determined by the quality of the opponents offense. Nebraska comes in at 5-6 against this total. In conference play UCLA only held 3 teams under 27.5 while Nebraska went over 27.5 a total of 7 times against Power 5 squads. UCLA went over 33.5 points in 6/11 against P5 teams while Nebraska only allowed 3/10 teams to go over 33.5 points. However Nebraska didn't exactly face a load of offenses as potent as what UCLA will bring to the table.
Leans: Over 61, UCLA -6.5, UCLA ML in parlay, Nebraska TT Over
Plays: none yet
Brandon Harris O200 Pass Yards
Thought here is that Les will probably let Harris throw it a lot at the TTU secondary is awful so with them already having to stack the box they could give up some big ones on play action. I could see a similar stat line as WKY where he had 11 completions for 280ish
Thought here is that Les will probably let Harris throw it a lot at the TTU secondary is awful so with them already having to stack the box they could give up some big ones on play action. I could see a similar stat line as WKY where he had 11 completions for 280ish
Thanks Lars
TAMU TT O23.5
Ville/TAMU longest TD O44.5
These teams have playmakers. TAMU gonna play motivated and cohesive with the cancer gone but they're still susceptible to giving up a big one on the back end imo. Just logged in to look at this and would have guessed 55ish
TAMU TT O23.5
Ville/TAMU longest TD O44.5
These teams have playmakers. TAMU gonna play motivated and cohesive with the cancer gone but they're still susceptible to giving up a big one on the back end imo. Just logged in to look at this and would have guessed 55ish
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