Bowling for Schrute Bucks

S

Schrute

Assistant __ ___ Regional Mod
Gonna copy the format of the Clown

Record so far
0-0

Arizona vs New Mexico -0.10 units
Plays for this game: UNM TT O28; J Pressley O76.5 Rush Yards

BYU vs Utah -0.10 units
Plays for this game: Utah -2.5 and Under 53.5

Ohio vs Appalachian St -1.19 units
Plays for this game: App St -7 -119

SJSU vs GA St -1.00 units
Plays for this game: Georgia St +150

Arkansas St vs La Tech -0.10 units
Plays for this game: Under 67, La Tech -1

Western KY vs South Florida +1.00 units
Plays for this game: Q. Flowers Pass + Rush O250.5

Akron vs Utah St -0.10 units
Plays for this game: Under 49; Devante Mays U70.5 Rushing yards

Toledo vs Temple -1.65 units
Plays for this game: Temple TT O26.5 x1.5

Boise vs Northern Illinois +1.00 units
Plays for this game: Boise -8.5

GA Southern vs Bowling Green +1.77 units
Plays for this game: GSU +177

MTSU vs Western Michigan -1.10 units
Plays for this game: Under 65

Cincinnati vs SDSU +1.60 units
Plays for this game: SDSU TT O30; Longest TD O54.5 0.66-0.60

UCONN vs Marshall +0.90 units
Plays for this game: A. Newsome O102.5 Rush/Rec Yards; Under 44; Under 49.5 0.55-0.50; Marshall TT U24; UCONN +280 LIVE 0.50-1.40

Miami vs Washington St +1.00 units
Plays for this game: Washington St -2.5; Yearby O85.5 Rush Yards; Dom Williams O88.5 Rec Yards +115; Miami/WashSt 1H Pt > 2H Pt 0.55-0.50; Miami/Wazzou Longest TD U60.5 0.66-0.60; Under 62

Southern Miss vs Washington +5.00 units
Plays for this game: Washington -8.5; M. Gaskins O124.5 Rush Yards; Gaskins O124 Rush Yards; Washington TT O29.5; Washington 2H -3.5

Indiana vs Duke +6.94 units
Plays for this game: Duke TT O34.5; Sudfeld O290 Pass Yards -125; Sirk O60.5 Rush Yards; Goes to OT 0.20-2.72; Duke Scores 12 Pts First in 1st Qtr +300 0.33-1.00; O37.5 2H +105; Duke +4.5 LIVE 0.55-0.50

Tulsa vs Virginia Tech +0.50 units
Plays for this game: Brewer O247.5 Pass Yards; Tulsa TT O23.5; Tulsa +440 0.50-2.20; VT -20.5 LIVE +100

Nebraska vs UCLA -2.25 units
Plays for this game: Washington/UCLA -115; UCLA TT O33.5; T Armstrong TD/INT O3.5 +110; T. Newby U44.5 Rush Yards; J. Rosen O274.5 Pass Yards; Duarte O62.5 Rec Yards

Pittsburgh vs Navy +1.00 units
Plays for this game: Navy -2.5

CMU vs Minnesota -1.00 units
Plays for this game: CMU +205

Air Force vs California -1.10 units
Plays for this game: AFA TT O32; AFA +210; Karson Roberts O76.5 Rush Yards

Baylor vs UNC +2.00 units
Plays for this game: UNC TT O36; Q Davis O45.5 Rec Yards

Nevada vs Colorado St +1.00 units
Plays for this game: Under 56

Texas Tech vs LSU +2.00 units
Plays for this game: LSU -7; Brandon Harris O200 Pass Yards

Memphis vs Auburn -1.00 units
Plays for this game: Memphis +155

NC State vs Mississippi St +1.00 units
Plays for this game: Over 60.5

Louisville vs Texas A&M +0.90 units
Plays for this game: TAMU +140; Hubenak O226.5 Pass yards; Ville/TAMU longest TD O44.5; TAMU TT O23.5; U57.5 LIVE

Wisconsin vs USC -2.20 units
Plays for this game: Over 50.5; Ogunbowale O65.5 Rush Yards

Houston vs Florida St +1.00 units
Plays for this game: Over 55.5

Michigan St vs Alabama -1.10 units
Plays for this game: Cook O240 Pass Yards

Clemson vs Oklahoma -3.80 units and i don't give a fuck
Plays for this game: A. Scott O72.5 Rec Yards; J. Leggett O39.5 Rec Yards; Clemson scores 6 Pts First in 1stQuarter +150; D. Neal O37.5 Rec Yards; J. Leggett to score first TD +1400 0.50-7.00; Clemson TT O30

Tennessee vs Northwestern -1.00 units
Plays for this game: NW +16/U55.5

Florida vs Michigan +1.00 units
Plays for this game: Michigan -4

Notre Dame vs Ohio St +-0.00 units
Plays for this game: Over 57; Notre Dame +210

Iowa vs Stanford +1.17 units
Plays for this game: Michigan/Stanford +117; Iowa TT O23.5; K Hogan O208.5 Pass Yards

Ole Miss vs Oklahoma St -0.10 units
Plays for this game: Jaylen Walton O75.5 Rush Yards; Under 70.5 LIVE

Penn St vs UGA +2.00 units
Plays for this game: Ole Miss/UGA -110; Penn St TT U18.5

Kansas St vs Arkansas -1.10 units
Plays for this game: KSU +17.5 LIVE

TCU vs Oregon +3.10 units
Plays for this game: V Adams U21.5 Completions +110; Oregon TT O40.5; TCU 2H PK

West Virginia vs Arizona St +4.30 units
Plays for this game: WVU/ASU Longest TD O60.5; Bercovici TD/INT O3.5 +140; DJ Foster O70.5 Rush+Rec Yards; ASU/WVU Live O64.5; ASU/WVU 2H O34; WVU PK LIVE

Clemson vs Alabama
Plays for this game:
 
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Going to try to write up a lot of the games. Let's start with the first one

Arizona -10 vs New Mexico (64)
SOS: Zona 50 and NM 101
Coaching Changes: none
Motivation: Large advantage for NM here playing in their home state
Past Bowl Performances: UNM first bowl since 2007. Zona 2-1 under RichRod including a 1 point win in the 2012 New Mexico bowl where they should have had more motivation than they do this year
Matchups: Zona is run/pass even and averages 5.8ypp against better defenses than UNM has to offer. UNM gives up 6.1 ypp so Zona should be able to move the ball with ease as UNM is #105 in opponent yards per play. New Mexico runs the ball 72% of the time, averages 5.6ypp and Zona gives up 5.9ypp. Zona rush defense is #84 in yards per rushing attempt giving up 4.7 yards per rush so New Mexico could move the ball. Zona averages 80.3 ppg and New Mexico averages 65.1. Arizona has lost 4 of their past 5 games and their coach shopped his name around like a mad man. UNM has won 3 of their last 4 coming in including wins against Boise, Utah St and Air Force (all bowl teams). I think UNM will score pretty easily here and may invest in their team total
Leans: New Mexico TT O27 (if available that's what it would be right now given spread and total)
Plays: none yet
 
BYU +2.5 vs Utah (53.5)
SOS: Utah 23 and BYU 55
Coaching Changes: Bronco is gone to UVA. He is coaching the bowl game but you have to wonder how these kids will respond to him leaving
Motivation: Rivalry game so the motivation should be there. BYU has kind of assumed the little brother role with Utah joining the PAC 12 (my opinion). Do these kids feel deserted by Bronco leaving for UVA and could it significantly affect them in preparation and performance? I think it's a strong possibility. This isn't a Richt or Beamer situation where they will care greatly about sending him out a winner. Again that's just opinion so if any BYU fans feel differently please let me know. Bronco has hired 6 BYU assistants to join him at UVA as well
Past Bowl Performances:Utah 2-0 under Wittingham (2014 and 2011). BYU 2-2 under Bronco but have lost the last 2 and haven't covered either of them.
Matchups: Utah runs 60% of the time while BYU passes 56% of the time. Utah is 60th in yards per pass attempt while BYU is 38th in yards per rushing attempt. Utah is 34th in ypp while BYU is 29th. Utah is 63rd in plays per game while BYU is 69th.
Leans: Under 53.5 and Utah -2.5 as the last two games and the last 4/5 between these two have gone under the posted number. BYU can score but the games against top defenses have gone under this number this season. Neither team has an incredible pace and they both have solid defenses. Think there is a bit more of a motivational and focus edge here for Utah and I think the number should be at least 3.5
Plays: Utah -2.5 and Under 53.5
 
Ohio +8.5 vs Appalachian St (54)
SOS: Ohio 93 and App St 97
Coaching Changes: None
Motivation: Slight edge to App St given that this is their first ever bowl game and I anticipate their fans will travel quite well to Montgomery
Past Bowl Performances: Ohio is 2-5 in bowl games under Solich with 3 losses by more than 14 points
Matchups: App St runs it 67% of the time and Ohio runs it 56% of the time. App St has significantly better offensive and defensive ypp with fairly equal schedules. App St is actually 14th in opponent ypp while Ohio is 87th so that's quite a discrepancy. Ohio is 100th in rushing ypp and App St is good at running the ball and likes to do it a lot. Ohio is 31 in pace and App is 105 so the pace should overall be pretty average. Ohio is 5-6 against this total this year while App is 5-6 also.
Leans: App St -8.5 and will use in some ML parlays as well
Plays: none yet
 
SJSU -3.5 vs Georgia St (56)
SOS: SJSU 90 and GA St 108
Coaching Changes: none
Motivation: Slight edge to GA St given its their first bowl game ever. Game is a lot closer to Atlanta than San Jose as well but neither school will bring enough fans to make a difference
Past Bowl Performances: SJSU won their last bowl game in 2012 and it is the first ever bowl game for GA St
Matchups: GA St passes it 55% of the time while SJSU runs it 53% of the time. GA St has a better yards per play both offensively and defensively against a weaker schedule. GA St comes in winning their last 4 games to get bowl eligible including a huge win at GA Southern. SJSU is 1-3 in their last 4 and only have 5 wins with one of them coming against FCS New Hampshire. GSU has gone under this number in their last 3 games while SJSU has gone over this number in their last 3 games
Leans: Played GA St +150
Plays: Georgia St +150
 
Arkansas St +2 vs Louisiana Tech (67)
SOS: Arky St 92 and La Tech 87
Coaching Changes: none
Motivation: slight edge to LT because they're playing in home state
Past Bowl Performances: LT beat the shit out of Illinois last year and that's Holtz' only bowl game here. Arky St 1-1 in bowl games under Anderson losing a shootout last year
Matchups: Arky St runs it 61% and LT passes 54%. LT has about a yard advantage in offensive ypp and the teams are equal in defensive ypp. LT is actually 13th in oppenents yards per rush attempt which could be significant here given Arky St propensity to run the football. Arky St 28th in pace and LT is 75th so probably a pretty decent pace here. However with Arky St running the football and LT having a solid rush defense, the clock could move a bit more than anticipated. Arky St is 6-1 to the over against this total in their last 7. However LT is 2-7 to the under against this total in their last 9. Arky St did go under this number against every bowl team they played this year sans Georgia St.
Leans: LT -2, Played U67
Plays: Under 67
 
Western KY -3 vs South Florida (65)
SOS: WKY 78 and So Fla 65
Coaching Changes: none
Motivation: none significant IMO but slight advantage to So Florida given the game is so much closer to campus
Past Bowl Performances: WKY 1-0 in bowl games under Brohm with the worst moose ever. This will be Taggart's first bowl game
Matchups: So Florida runs 66% while WKY passes 55%. WKY with a 1.1 ypp advantage offensively and a 0.3 ypp disadvantage defensively. WKY is 57th against the rush and they will get a heavy dose of it here. WKY is 10-3 to the over against this number while So Florida is 3-8 to the over. WKY 64th in plays per game while So Florida is 96th. WKY covered this number against every non power 5 opponent this year. However So Florida has blown out Temple and Cinci in two of their last 3 games. Team totals should be WKY 34 and SoFlorida 31. WKY scored more than 34 against every team other than Vandy and LSU while Maryland was the only team to score more than 34 against So Florida. So Florida has scored more than 31 in their last 3 games and in 5 of their last 8. WKY has given up more than 31 points to LSU, Indiana and La Tech. Something has to give here
Leans: nothing at this point. I'll likely add something degen for small or find a player prop
Plays: None yet
 
Akron +6.5 vs Utah St (49)
SOS: Akron 102 and Utah St 73
Coaching Changes: none
Motivation: Utah St playing closer to home while this is Akron's 2nd bowl game ever
Past Bowl Performances: Akron's first bowl under Terry. Utah St 2-0 under Wells with 2 unders
Matchups: USU runs 55% and Akron runs 58%. USU averages 0.6 more ypp offensively while defensively it is a wash. Akron is #3 against the rush while USU is #32 so hard to imagine either team having much success on the ground here. Akron 91st in pace while USU is 99th. Lot of things pointing towards an under. However USU has only gone under this total 3 times this season but Akron has gone under the total 6 times while playing in the MAC. Team totals should be USU 28 and Akron 21.5. BGSU and Oklahoma were the only teams to put up more than 28 against Akron while USU failed to score more than 28 points 7 times this season, though they did hit the exact number twice. Akron failed to break 21.5 points 7 times this year while USU held opponents under this total 3 times this year. USU played many offenses far superior to what Akron will offer. Akron has zero quality wins while USU has beaten Colo St, Nevada and Boise.
Leans: Nothing on side, Played U49. Will likely have USU in ML parlays and teasers
Plays: Under 49
 
Toledo +1.5 vs Temple (51)
SOS: Toledo 75 and Temple 67
Coaching Changes: Temple extended Rhule while Toledo lost HC Campbell to Iowa St. Toledo promoted Matt Candle which was a move with heavy player support
Motivation: No significant advantage IMO. You could possibly argue Toledo will play with passion for their new HC who is very popular with the players
Past Bowl Performances: First bowl game for both Head Coaches
Matchups: Both teams run the ball 54% of the time. Toledo averages 0.6 more ypp offensively and gives up 0.3 more ypp defensively. Toledo is 10th against the run while Temple is 30th so again a game where it may be hard to get much going on the ground. Toledo has either gone over or pushed this total in their last 6 games while Temple has only gone over this total 4 times all season. Toledo is 35th in pace while Temple is 97th. Both teams are 2-2 in their past 4 games so neither team is coming in particularly hot. Team Totals should be Temple 26 and Toledo 25. Arkansas and Ball St are the only teams to hold Toledo under 25 points and they haven't been held under that number since October 3rd. Cinci, SMU and South Florida are the only 3 teams to break that number against the Temple defense. In 4 of their past 5 games Toledo has given up more than 26 points while Temple has scored more than 26 a total of 8 times this season.
Leans: Over 51
Plays: Nothing yet
 
Boise -8 vs Northern Illinois (54.5)
SOS: Boise 74 and NIU 80
Coaching Changes: none
Motivation: Two teams used to playing in bowls with disappointing seasons. Slight edge to NIU as they're "playing up" while Boise is "playing down"
Past Bowl Performances: Carey is 0-2 in bowl games at NIU while Harsin is 1-0 with a Fiesta bowl win
Matchups: Boise passes 52% while NIU runs 61% of the time. Boise averages 0.5 ypp more offensively while things are a wash defensively. NIU loves to run and Boise is 19th against the run in terms of ypc. Boise is 6th in pace while NIU is 25th so there should be pace. Boise has only gone under this total 3 times this season while NIU is 6-6 against this total. This along with the pace makes me lean slightly to the over but the Boise rush defense is a bit of a concern. Team totals should be Boise 31.5 and NIU 23. Boise has been held under that number 4 times this year while NIU has held opponents under 31.5 points a total of 10 times this year. NIU has gone over 23 points 7 times this year but were held under the number in their last two. Boise has held opponents under that number 5 times this year and pushed the number once. However they haven't held an opponent under 23 points since October 24 against Wyoming.
Leans: slight lean to Boise -8 and might use in ML parlays. Slight lean to over
Plays: Nothing yet
 
Amazing what can be accomplished with the wife and kids out of town. Good luck this bowl season Dwight. Maybe our teams will see each other in Arizona
 
Schrute said:
Arkansas St +2 vs Louisiana Tech (67)
SOS: Arky St 92 and La Tech 87
Coaching Changes: none
Motivation: slight edge to LT because they're playing in home state
Past Bowl Performances: LT beat the shit out of Illinois last year and that's Holtz' only bowl game here. Arky St 1-1 in bowl games under Anderson losing a shootout last year
Matchups: Arky St runs it 61% and LT passes 54%. LT has about a yard advantage in offensive ypp and the teams are equal in defensive ypp. LT is actually 13th in oppenents yards per rush attempt which could be significant here given Arky St propensity to run the football. Arky St 28th in pace and LT is 75th so probably a pretty decent pace here. However with Arky St running the football and LT having a solid rush defense, the clock could move a bit more than anticipated. Arky St is 6-1 to the over against this total in their last 7. However LT is 2-7 to the under against this total in their last 9. Arky St did go under this number against every bowl team they played this year sans Georgia St.
Leans: LT -2, Played U67
Plays: Under 67
Click to expand...

You ever have one of those games where you think you know what you're going to bet and then you dig deeper and then you can't bet it and it legit pisses you off? No? Well, that's me with the over in this game. Had every intention of betting it but the numbers more support and under, IMO. I don't know that I'll get involved at all, LT to me is the play on paper but Ark St is playing such good football right now while LT has put together two of their worst of the season. Classic avoid game for me but it's bowl season so will find a way to get something on it - I'm interested in some angles on some LT player props. Thanks for write ups
 
Yes I totally agree with the analysis there CK. Before I started looking at stats I wouldn't have fathomed I would have been on the under but the matchups point that way
 
Ark St is so fundamentally wrong. Fast paced zone option, but Knighton refuses to give the ball away. He is the Allen Iverson of college football. Wide open receivers, and he runs with the ball. Stop him and you shut down the Red Wolves.
 
GA Southern +7.5 vs Bowling Green (66)
SOS: GSU 89 and BGSU 71
Coaching Changes: GSU coach Fritz off to Tulane and won't coach bowl game; Babers off to Cuse and won't coach bowl game but current BGSU staff will as Jenks stays with Texas Tech
Motivation: Both teams in interesting states of mind having lost their head coaches. GSU first bowl game ever and you have to think their fans make the drive to Mobile. BGSU as MAC champs don't exactly get a shot at a big school they probably wanted so I can see them being disinterested
Past Bowl Performances: GSU first bowl game; BGSU 4th straight and they're 1-2 with all games going under the current total
Matchups: GSU runs 84% while BGSU passes 54% and this will be quite the contrast in styles. BGSU averages 0.3 more ypp while the defenses are similar but BGSU did play a better SOS. BGSU is 44th against the run and GSU is 18th so small trend to under. Both teams have basically lost their offensive coordinators with Lewis going to Cuse with Babers. I can't find if Lewis is coaching in the bowl game as the only article I found said "the staff" would be coaching the bowl game. However Lewis' twitter is all about Cuse recruiting so I don't think so and he certainly can't be focused. GA Southern is 83rd against the pass so you have to think BGSU will be able to toss it around if they game plan. BGSU is 3rd in pace while GSU is 122nd so quite a contrast there. BGSU is 6-5 to the over against this total against group of 5 teams while GSU is 7-3 to the under. The key to this game is going to be figuring out the motivation. Either team could absolutely no show which is a shame because this could have been an excellent game to watch (it still might be).
Leans: none yet, will have to research more closer to gameday
Plays: none yet
 
MTSU +3 vs WMU (63)
SOS: MTSU 84 and WMU 69
Coaching Changes: none, Fleck getting major extension
Motivation: no significant advantage but WMU lost 2/3 while MTSU has won 4 straight
Past Bowl Performances: MTSU 1-3 under Stockstill and WMU 0-1 under Fleck with loss last year
Matchups: I'll start out by saying these are two teams who got to a bowl game with each having just 1 win over winning teams. WMU runs 54% while MTSU passes 52%. WMU averages 0.5 ypp more offensively but counters that by giving up 1.1 more ypp defensively though they did play a stronger schedule against stronger offenses. WMU is 81st against the pass in a pass happy conference while MTSU is 42nd against the run. WMU is 4-4 against this total against Group of 5 teams while MTSU is 5-3 to the under. MTSU is 5-0 to the under in their past 5 while going over against FIU, WKY (of course) and Charlotte where they put up 73 on their own. MTSU is 26th in pace while WMU is 57th so maybe slightly above average here. Stockstill is 3-1 to this total in bowl games while WMU bowl game went slightly under this number last year. Team totals should be WMU 33 and MTSU 30. WMU actually held some pretty decent offenses under 30 this year
Leans: MTSU +130 (value lean only, don't love the play), Under 63, MTSU TT U30
Plays: none yet
 
Cincinnati -1.5 vs SDSU (57)
SOS: Cinci 70 and SDSU 88
Coaching Changes: none
Motivation: eh no significant advantage, maybe I could see SDSU slightly more motivated but can't convince myself
Past Bowl Performances: Cinci 0-2 under Tubs with 3 score losses to ACC teams; SDSU 1-3 under Long with 2 tight losses, a blowout loss and a blowout win
Matchups: SDSU runs 72% and Cinci passes 54%. Cinci averages 0.9 more ypp while giving up 1.3 more ypp defensively. Cinci is 111th against the rush and SDSU will pound the rock here. SDSU is 8th against the run but 47th against the pass and Cinci will likely be more than happy to oblige by tossing it around. Cinci is 5th in pace while SDSU is 104th so contrasting styles. SDSU has gone over the total only 4 times this year while Cinci has gone over the number 8 times this year so basically a push there. However Cinci's offensive strength is the SDSU defensive weakness and SDSU offensive strength is the Cinci defense's weakness. That points to a game that may go over. Team totals should be Cinci 29 and SDSU 28. SDSU has only been held under 28 once since 10/3 and that was by Air Force. Cinci only held 4 FBS teams under 28 points
Leans: SDSU TT O28, Game O57
Plays: none yet, will definitely play SDSU TT over when available
 
UCONN +4 vs Marshall (44)
SOS: UCONN 83 and Marshall 95
Coaching Changes: none
Motivation: Diaco is a nut so maybe a slight advantage for UCONN given that a bowl was unexpected but no crazy advantage IMO
Past Bowl Performances: Marshall 4-0 in bowl games under Doc; First bowl game for Diaco but he's 1-0 in manufactured rivalry games so maybe he creates a trophy here
Matchups: UCONN runs 54% of the time and Marshall is even on run-pass. Marshall averages 0.5 ypp more on offense and gives up 0.5 ypp less on defense while facing a tougher schedule. Marshall is 51 against the run while UCONN is 77. The UCONN upset of Houston is the only win over a bowl team for either squad here. UCONN is 4-7 to this under while Marshall is 6-4 to the over. UCONN pace is 111 while Marshall is 47. Team totals here should be Marshall 24 and UCONN 20. Marshall hasn't been held under 24 points since Sept 7 while UCONN has actually given up more than 24 against 5 teams. UCONN has only gone over 20 points three times this year against FCS teams while Marshall has held 7 opponents under 20 points
Leans: Marshall -4, UCONN TT U20
Plays: None yet
 
Well worth the time to read, mr S. And kudos for a nice job on the research. :cheers3: Best of fortune
 
Hope you and Kyle don't mind, but I am going to borrow your first page format for my thread
 
Miami +2.5 vs Washington St (63)
SOS: Miami 30 and Wash St 45
Coaching: Richt won't be coaching bowl game and D'onofrio doesn't know if he will be retained. Players prolly don't give a shit about this one
Motivation: Ohhhh, HUGE advantage Wash St here IMO
Past Bowl Performances: Miami 0 for last 5 while Wazzou is 0-1 under Leach in a crazy ass game
Matchups: Miami passes 52% of the time while Wazzou tosses it 74% of the time. They average the same ypp on offense but Wazzou gives up 0.3 ypp less on defense which is amazing. Wash St is 101 against the run while Miami is 122 so there could be some yards there if Leach will take them. Wash St and Miami have fairly similar pass defenses. Not getting too much into the side here b/c I love the Wazzou angle. Regarding the total of 63 and likely team totals of Wazzou 33 and Miami 30. As Wazzou defense has improved they have gone under this total in their last 5. Miami HC is their DC and they've only gone over this total once since Sept 19. Miami only gave up more than 33 points 3 times this season and two were against UNC and Clemson, both pretty well balanced teams. Wash St gave up more than 30 points 6 times this year and while I question the Canes motivation they have solid athletes on offense and a good QB in Kaaya. However they've only gotten more than 30 points once since Sept 19.
Leans: Under 66
Plays: Washington St -2.5
 
Washington -8.5 vs Southern Miss (56.5)
SOS: Washington 19 and Southern Miss 86
Coaching Changes: none
Motivation: both teams exceeded expectations and should be ready to go. Slight advantage to SoMiss for playing up but does not exceed the SOS advantage of Washington by any means
Past Bowl Performances: first bowl game under current coach
Matchups: Washington runs 52% while So Miss passes 52%. So Miss averages 1.4 more ypp while Washington gives up 0.4 less ypp on defense but this is easily explained by the SOS differential IMO. So Miss has the 23rd pass defense while Washington comes in at 30th so both teams might struggle a bit tossing it around. Washington 27th in rush defense while So Miss is 56th against vastly different schedules. I think Washington will succeed in running the ball if they show up appropriately. Washington has easily covered this number against inferior opponents this year (49 Sac st, 14 Utah St, 46 Arizona, 45 Oregon St, 35 Wazzou). Against bowl teams this year SoMiss didn't cover this number against Miss St, Marshall and WKY while they did cover it against LT and Nebraska. Let's discuss the total of 56.5 and likely team totals of Washington 32.5 and SoMiss 24. Washington has easily sailed this team total against inferior competition this year as evidenced by their blowouts above. So Miss has allowed opponents to go over that number 4 times this year but all were quality opponents except Texas St. Teams that went over 24 against Washington were Cal, Oregon, Stanford, Utah and ASU with Utah being the only team to go over 30. So Miss was only held under 24 against Miss St and Marshall.
Leans: Washington -8, Washington TT O32.5
Plays: none yet
 
Ole coach no d is as good as gone and he knows it. My concern is Miami d against cougs O. Miami hasn't seen the air raid at all in recent seasons and could pose a big problem. Miami struggles to generate any pass rush w the front 4 which may not be a problem with their quick passing attack. Miami LBs really have struggled in coverage this year, see Virginia and Nebraska games. They should have an athletic advantage in the secondary and the group has a bunch of ints this year, but they are the most undisciplined group on D and completely shut out the system when things go wrong. The players HATE coach d system too.
Miami can also be run on as the numbers indicate.

I would disagree about the motivation. In years past, this bowl game would look like all the others they have played in cold weather climate in an easy season bowl. But there is a ton of excitement in the program generated by richt hire, so motivation should be higher. Also something to consider, oc coley has been campaigning to stay even if he's not the play caller. I would like to think he comes out w a leave it all on the field type of game plan.

Miami has the ability to match scores I believe even though numbers may not bare it out. 3rd down efficiency has been the death knell of the offense. This has happened more in the games against better defenses(what a concept). Haven't looked a ton at wazzou d or their numbers yet; but I imagine they aren't one of the better the canes have played this year. Canes need to protect Kaaya which has been an issue all year and convert 3rd downs better

This feels like it could be a shootout, whoever makes the most stops wins type of game. I am higher on the canes motivation angle than most.
Coach Scott seems to have rallied the team, when it could have fallen apart and they seem to have played hard for him.
 
Also going to both the Miami and Boca Raton Bowl.

Fired up for the WKY S Florida matchup. Have watched WKY live a couple of times when they have come down and played fau and think this could be one of the best bowl games of the early season.

Not as excited for the boca bowl which has the smell of poop wafting from the bowels of fau stadium. Temple feels like let down city. Toledo lost its coach. Both teams may treat this as a vacation in the 80 degree weather.
 
Schrute said:
J Pressley O76.5 Rush Yards
Click to expand...

Got this too. Heard one of the advanced stats guys, maybe it was Bill C weigh in on this guy and he likened him to Adam Dunn. It's either strikeout or home run. He tracks stats and % of runs that gain at least 5 yards. This guy is like 114th nationally in a metric similar to that meaning he is pretty ineffective and poor average but he hits a home run or two every game where he rips off 30+ yarders and in turn has nice ypc. I've never seen him live so looking forward to that. I predict he scores a 60+ yard TD today!
 
You seeing any props on the tater bowl?

D Mays UNDER 70.5 rushing
H Sharp OVER 6 catches

Either of those appealing to you?
 
Really like the Mays one esp with Chuckie eating up some carries. Most of Mays over games came when Keeton wasn't playing QB

No opinion on any of the others

Devante Mays U70.5 Rushing yards
 
Schrute said:
Really like the Mays one esp with Chuckie eating up some carries. Most of Mays over games came when Keeton wasn't playing QB

No opinion on any of the others

Devante Mays U70.5 Rushing yards
Click to expand...

Will join you there, hoping Akron rush D holds true to form. Thanks
 
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