Bowl Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
My goal was to get something posted a lot earlier than this, but it just didn't work out. The season ended up right up there with a coin flip, as I was leaking oil by the end of the year. I think the final percentage was something like 52.80%, which is barely good enough to be in the black. Not great, but I think it was Sevenpointroaddog that pointed out that a lot of these so called "pro" bettors give out plays in various formats and they all struggle to get over 50%, so I have company I guess. There's plenty of cappers on this forum that do a hell of a lot better than that.

Last year i had a good bowl season. I went back and checked, and I went 13-6 on the posted plays here. I was a little bit more conservative then and it served me well. Not sure I'll be able to hold off on plays that well, but It'll be in the back of my mind. As always I have thoughts on pretty much every game, so my plan is to write all of them up at least to some extent, but I'll clearly number each play that I myself am betting with some gusto to differentiate them. I'll use this first page to keep track of the "official plays". Games start early tomorrow so lets get to it.

Miami(OH) +7 WIN
New Mexico State -3.5 LOSS
Boise +6 LOSS
Cal +3.5 LOSS
UTSA -12 WIN-Fortunate they covered anyway after Harris late scratch
UCF -4.5 LOSS
NIU +3 WIN
Air Force +1.5 WIN
Utah State -1.5 LOSS
Northwestern +7 WIN
UNLV +13 PUSH
West Virginia -6.5 WIN
Oklahoma State ML (-128) WIN
SMU -10 LOSS
NC State +2.5 LOSS
Oregon State +6 LOSS
Memphis +10.5 WIN
Missouri +6 WIN
Penn State -4.5 LOSS
Maryland +6.5 WIN
Georgia -20 WIN
Wyoming -3.5 LOSS
LSU -9.5 LOSS
Iowa +6 LOSS
Alabama +2.5 LOSS
Washington +4 WIN

Bowl Total: 12-13-1


Myrtle Beach Bowl: Georgia Southern is a 2.5 point favorite shaded to 3 in this one. If this game was played a few weeks ago I would be all over Ohio. but they have been decimated my transfer portal losses and a couple injuries, especially on offense. Despite the presence of QB Kurtis Rourke, who has been a solid QB for the Bobs for a few years, this Ohio offense didn't do much all year even with all their guys. Now both of their running backs (Bangura and Allison) who accounted for virtually all of their RB carries as well as Rourke and starting receiver Miles Cross who led the team in receiving TDs and missed leading the team in receiving yards by one yard are in the portal. Backup QB CJ Harris got hurt earlier in the year and is out for the season so their be using 3rd stringer Parker Navarro. Having said all of that, I won't be laying with Georgia Southern, and I still kind of want to take the points, but 2.5 to 3 isn't enough here with the unknowns. Georgia Southern's defense is terrible, so there's a chance any QB with a pulse would be able to move the ball on them and Navarro can run, so there's a chance they could throw some tricky packages at a defense that seems to get tricked a lot. Also, Ohio's defense should be ready to go pretty much intact, and they were solid all year. Georgia Southern has been productive at times offensively, but their rate stats aren't that great, and there's a lot of dink and dunk in QB Davis Brin's game which Ohio should be able to deal with. Clay Helton has also had all kinds of problems in bowls from an ATS perspective. Ultimately the unknowns of who suits up for the Ohio offense keeps me off this, but if forced I would take the points.
 
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New Orleans Bowl: Jacksonville State is a 3.5 favorite against La La, but this is another one I can't really justify a play on. I like Jax State and I think they'll be fired up because they won an exception to play in the bowl, but when I line these two up, I get a dead heat. Their units line up almost identically across the board. If the offense can run it, the defense generally stops the run. If the defense can't stop the pass, the opposing offense doesn't throw it well, etc. La La is just a couple hours away so they should have some fans there. but Jacksonville < Alabama isn't all that far away either. Rich Rod has done a nice job, but he's been bad in bowls. I also think the Sun Belt has been a vastly superior league to CUSA, so we have a SOS edge for La La as well. Doesn't seem like a lot of opt outs for either side here, My brain is kind of nudging me to the Cajuns, but I don't really want to fade this Jacksonville State team that has played hard and been resourceful all year, so I'm sitting this one out.
 
1. Cure Bowl: Miami (OH) +7(-120) v Appalachian State: (Saturday 12/16) This one will be the first "numbered play" of the bowl season. I've really liked Miami all year, and I think this one shapes up to be a nice spot for them. I've also been able to ride Appy State at times this year, but they are a much better dog than they are a favorite, and I think when you line these two teams up, Miami looks like the slightly better team. Backing MAC squads has been a shaky proposition over the past few years, but I think this Miami squad merits the play. Starting QB Brett Gabbert has been out for awhile, but the Redhawks have made do with backup Aveion Smith, much like they did last year when Gabbert got hurt then. Miami will be without Smith because he has entered the transfer portal, meaning 3rd stringer Henry Hesson(!!) will get the start. Smith has navigated things well this year, but they certainly haven't won anything strictly because of him. He only completed 50% of his passes and had a 2/2 ratio in 96 total attempts. He didn't run it all that effectively either, averaging only 3 yards a carry with 1 rushing TD. Make no mistake, this Miami team is capable of winning(they've won 10 games this year already) because of their terrific defense and a special teams unit that is probably the bet in the country, bar none. Their kicker has missed one field goal all year and they've been adept at playing field position to keep opponents from having short fields. Offensively, they Redhawks rely on Rashad Amos and the running game. It hasn't been explosive, but Amos pounds away for about 5 yards per carry. Appy State has been gashed on the ground all year, (119th in yards per carry against) so I think Miami will have success there. Defensively, the Redhawks are good everywhere. They stop the run, they're 13th in yards per pass attempt against, they're 9th on 3rd down and they put plenty of pressure on the QB. Appy State QB Joey Aguilar has had his moments, but he's a bit of a loose cannon, having piled up 28 turnover worthy plays throughout the season, second most in the country among qualified QBs. Miami has struggled to protect the QB this year, but if they can avoid major problems there, I think they can have success against this mediocre at best Appy defense, even with a new QB. I also trust Miami coach Chuck Martin, who is undefeated ATS in bowls(4-0) and it looks like this team will have solid motivation, having been on a roll and looking to equal the record that Ben Roethisberger's squad managed twenty or so years ago. Other than Smith, there really aren't any damaging losses for the Redhawks, while leading rusher Nate Noel and a couple of rotation receivers are in the portal for the Mountaineers. Only Miami(FL) and Cincinnati topped 400 yards all year on this Miami defense. I suspect they'll keep that train moving in this game, and as a result, taking 7 points makes a lot of sense with the team I have pegged as the slightly better squad.
 
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2. New Mexico Bowl: New Mexico State -3.5 v Fresno State: (Saturday 12/16) This is a pretty expensive line, but I really can't pass up a chance to ride with Jerry Kill and the Aggies here, as they have proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that motivation is the last thing you need to worry about with them. handicapping motivation is difficult, but this looks to be one of the biggest motivational mismatches of the bowl season. NMSU is delighted to be in their home state for this bowl, and when you consider where Fresno was only a little more than a month ago(8-1 and in the driver's seat for a MWC title game berth) where they are now can only be seen as a total failure and a major disappointment. In addition to that, HC Jeff Tedord won't be around for medical reasons, so they have to use a patchwork coaching staff to match wits with Jerry Kill. Defensively, Fresno has really fallen off a cliff, especially in stopping the run as the Bulldogs have given up 884 yards rushing in their last 3 games. That's music to the ears of the Aggies as they rank 4th in country in yards per carry and they'll be more than happy to run the power game right down Fresno's throat, much like they did at Auburn a couple weeks ago. QB Diego Pavia, who has done a little bit of everything for the Aggies this year is healthy according to Kill and he should be ready to go. Offensively for Fresno, it looks like Mikey Keene is going to play, but he has been hurt all year and he hasn't been all that effective. They can't run the ball, and if Keene gets hurt, backup Logan Fife has said sayonara and is in the transfer portal so they'll have no depth there. Ultimately, we have an excited new Mexico State team who has proven their mettle against a coach-less Fresno team who probably couldn't care less about playing NMSU down in New Mexico. Neither team has been damaged all that much by defections, I just think we have a major edge in motivation for a solid NMSU team in this one.
 
3. LA Bowl: Boise State +6(-118) v UCLA: I think this is another case of a very motivated team going up against a team that might not care much. It's obvious that Boise got on a roll immediately after they got rid of head coach Andy Avalos and replaced him with Spencer Danielson. They blew out Utah State on the road and then took care of Air Force and UNLV in the Mountain West title game. The team practically stormed the AD's office to make sure Danielson was hired full time, and they got their wish. Now their fans get to travel to LA and they get another shot at a Pac 12 squad after having been humiliated in their opener against Washington. As for their season, they went 8-5, but they had some terrible luck. 2 of their losses were borderline jokes, as they gave up an 80 yard blocked FG for a 10 point swing in a game they eventually lose by 3 against Memphis, and they gave up a Hail mary on the last play in regulation against Colorado State. UCF also nailed a FG at the gun to beat them by 2, so they really were a whisker away from being 11-2. Offensively, they've been very good all year, especially in the running game. RB Ashton Jeanty could make a case as the best RB in the country this yar, both by the eye test as well as his numbers. He averaged 6 yards per carry and scored 14 TDs with 1200+ yards rushing. His running buddy George Holani is also back on the scene after being injured for a good chunk of the season and they've run roughshod over everyone since he's been back. Defensively they've struggled and their numbers haven't been good, but they've improved immensely in the past month or so, giving up only 314 yards per game in their last 6. Also, this UCLA offense hasn't been much to write home about, ranking 83rd in overall yards per play. Boise will be without QB Taylen Green who transferred to Arkansas and their other QB most of the year Maddux Madsen is out for the year with injury. They'll be down to a 3rd stringer, but they will be looking to run it, and with UCLA having some major defections via opt outs and the transfer portal, this UCLA defense doesn't figure to look like the unit that ranked highly in most categories this year Pac 12 DPOY Laiatu Latu is not playing and their top guy in the secondary John Humphrey is in the portal as well. They also lost DC Danton Lynn to USC, so they'll be without him, a guy who made a major impact on that defense this year. UCLA will probably go with Chase Garbers, but they are not explosive, and there's been no sign of RB Carson Steele at practice since the regular season ended, so it's likely they'll be without him. The game is in LA but I don't think that really helps UCLA. They got crushed in their finale against Cal, it probably would have been good to get out of town after that. Also, Boise travels well so there's a chance they'll be the less supported team in their home town. Inspired team vs uninspired team, and I think Boise matches up well with UCLA as currently constructed. I'll definitely take the 6 because Boise will not back down in this one.
 
Think I’ll be on boise also, don’t have nearly as much to say bout as you right now but +6 seems like clearly right side to me.
 
Still mulling Cal/Texas Tech, but I am leaning pretty heavily to Cal in that one. My hesitation is that it really seems like a classic prisoner of the moment with Texas Tech having been disemboweled the last time we saw them and Cal blowing out UCLA on the road the last time they took the field. I watched that Texas Tech/ Texas game while holding a Tech ticket and was disgusted by the effort Tech gave in that one so I know I'm biased . Still hashing that one out.
 
Br@ssknux said:
Still mulling Cal/Texas Tech, but I am leaning pretty heavily to Cal in that one. My hesitation is that it really seems like a classic prisoner of the moment with Texas Tech having been disemboweled the last time we saw them and Cal blowing out UCLA on the road the last time they took the field. I watched that Texas Tech/ Texas game while holding a Tech ticket and was disgusted by the effort Tech gave in that one so I know I'm biased . Still hashing that one out.
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I like cal a lot and even more so love Ott to go well over 106.5 rushing! I don’t think you being a prisoner of the moment, cal has proven they can put up numbers on a team like tech who has gotten gashed by lessor backs than Ott, red raiders outside the top 100 getting off the field on 3rd downs so that just gonna lead to more and more Ott rushes and cal running a lot of plays vs this suspect d.
 
Br@ssknux said:
1. Cure Bowl: Miami (OH) +7(-120) v Appalachian State: (Saturday 12/16) This one will be the first "numbered play" of the bowl season. I've really liked Miami all year, and I think this one shapes up to be a nice spot for them. I've also been able to ride Appy State at times this year, but they are a much better dog than they are a favorite, and I think when you line these two teams up, Miami looks like the slightly better team. Backing MAC squads has been a shaky proposition over the past few years, but I think this Miami squad merits the play. Starting QB Brett Gabbert has been out for awhile, but the Redhawks have made do with backup Aveion Smith, much like they did last year when Gabbert got hurt then. Miami will be without Smith because he has entered the transfer portal, meaning 3rd stringer Henry Hesson(!!) will get the start. Smith has navigated things well this year, but they certainly haven't won anything strictly because of him. He only completed 50% of his passes and had a 2/2 ratio in 96 total attempts. He didn't run it all that effectively either, averaging only 3 yards a carry with 1 rushing TD. Make no mistake, this Miami team is capable of winning(they've won 10 games this year already) because of their terrific defense and a special teams unit that is probably the bet in the country, bar none. Their kicker has missed one field goal all year and they've been adept at playing field position to keep opponents from having short fields. Offensively, they Redhawks rely on Rashad Amos and the running game. It hasn't been explosive, but Amos pounds away for about 5 yards per carry. Appy State has been gashed on the ground all year, (119th in yards per carry against) so I think Miami will have success there. Defensively, the Redhawks are good everywhere. They stop the run, they're 13th in yards per pass attempt against, they're 9th on 3rd down and they put plenty of pressure on the QB. Appy State QB Joey Aguilar has had his moments, but he's a bit of a loose cannon, having piled up 28 turnover worthy plays throughout the season, second most in the country among qualified QBs. Miami has struggled to protect the QB this year, but if they can avoid major problems there, I think they can have success against this mediocre at best Appy defense, even with a new QB. I also trust Miami coach Chuck Martin, who is undefeated ATS in bowls(4-0) and it looks like this team will have solid motivation, having been on a roll and looking to equal the record that Ben Roethisberger's squad managed twenty or so years ago. Other than Smith, there really aren't any damaging losses for the Redhawks, while leading rusher Nate Noel and a couple of rotation receivers are in the portal for the Mountaineers. Only Miami(FL) and Cincinnati topped 400 yards all year on this Miami defense. I suspect they'll keep that train moving in this game, and as a result, taking 7 points makes a lot of sense with the team I have pegged as the slightly better squad.
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solid write-up. QB play will be the key in this game. Gonna play Amos rushing prop for sure.
 
4. Independence Bowl: Cal +3.5 v Texas Tech: Despite the fact that there could be some "prisoner of the moment" going on here, I like Cal enough to take the points in this one. When I first watched him a couple times last year when he was thrust into the lineup after some injuries, I liked what I saw in TT QB Behren Morton. In subsequent writeups, I've kind of forced the idea on myself that he's a difference maker back there. but now that we have a pretty good sample size, he really isn't. He fought through some injuries this year so you'd think you'd have to cut him some slack, but he only averaged 6 yards per attempt for the year. He was declared healthy before Texas, which tricked me into taking the points with Tech, and he managed barely 2 yards per attempt, and frankly, that looked like it was he was capable of. Passing defense is the weakness of Cal's stop unit, but based on Morton's performance plus the fact that there are two starting receivers for Tech in the portal, it makes me think Tech might have a hard time exploiting that weakness. Also, their best OL, Monroe Mills, their LT will not play after having surgery. Tajh Brooks can run, but Cal has been good against the run this year, ranking in the 30's in yards per carry against, and they played some good run offenses on their schedule. Tech on the flip side is bad against the run and Jaydn Ott had no problem piling up yards all year, and I think he'll have success in this one. When I line these two teams up unit v unit, I think Cal is better, and I frankly like their QB Fernando Mendoza better than Morton despite his being a true freshman. I'm a little concerned that OC Jake Spavital is gone as well as several of their offensive staff, but I think they'll have continued success with Ott, which should simplify things. At worst if these teams are pretty equal, I have more than a FG, and I think Cal has been the better team. Tech has found ways to lose to Wyoming, BYU by 2 scores and West Virginia when they outgained them by plenty, I think they are capable of finding way to lose to Cal too.
 
Well, it was a rough start, 1-3. New Mexico State was clearly the wrong side. The other two losses, I can't say that I can be too disappointed about either one. I would not have anticipated that Jaydn Ott would have -1 yards on only 6 second half carries for Cal, and Behren Morton looked about a billion times better than he did when I watched him during the year(he of the 6 yards per attempt profile).

As for Boise, I realize that it's slim pickings when you get down to 3rd string QBs, but don't they have any intramural kids playing flag football on the Boise campus that can be more effective than that ballerina they had playing QB last night? He looked like he was more interested in exploring interpretive dance than actually playing football. If they had any kind of running threat at the position they probably would have been able to keep scoring and avoid giving UCLA the short fields, but I digress.

Tough night all around. On to the next.
 
Famous Toastery Bowl.: There's actually a lot to like about ODU. I've had great luck with them this year as they've cashed me a couple tickets, but they've always been in the dog role, which isn't the case here. WKU is up to +5 due to opt outs, and it's now been confirmed that Austin Davis will not play at QB for the Hilltoppers. They also will be missing several other key players, especially on the offensive line and the defense. WKU's top WR Malachi Corley is going to play however, and he's a pro. Coach Tyson Helton's kid is likely to get the start, and he's 8-8 for 82 yards on the year in garbage time. I'd probably have WKU about a 4 point favorite on a neutral, and now it's moved to ODU +5.5. That's too much for me here, especially since ODU doesn't typically function in the favorites role. Gun to head I'd say ODU wins the game, but 5.5 is too much for me, so I'm gonna pass.
 
5. Frisco Bowl: UTSA -12 v Marshall: I'm typically not a big fan of laying bog points in bowl games, but the more I look at Marshall in this one, I cannot find a reason to play them other than just a blind assumption that 12 points is too many in a bowl. 12 wasn't anywhere close to too many when they played strong squads down the stretch, especially when Cole Pennington was playing QB. Pennington is of course the son of Thundering herd legend and former Randy Moss running mate Chad Pennington, but Cole unfortunately doesn't appear to have the ability to hold his father's jock, even for a few seconds. He's gonna be the guy in this game because Cam Fancher, who also is not good is transferring and won't play. Pennington is averaging 6.8 yards per attempt and has a 0/6 ratio in limited action. In Marshall's last three road games, which took place against Coastal, South Alabama and Appy State, Marshall was outscored by a combined 93-15. UTSA is at least at the level of those teams, and likely a step ahead and this will be a de facto road game for Marshall because they'll be playing the RoadRunners in Frisco, Texas. Marshall will need to run the ball to be effective, but they ranked 93rd in yards per attempt, so I don't see that happening against a pretty solid run defense in UTSA (32nd). This will be Frank Harris's last game as a RoadRunner and Jeff Traylor didn't jump ship, so I'd suspect UTSA will be motivated. Marshall limped down the stretch, and they were dominated against non-pushover defenses. I'm not sure UTSA will liht the scoreboard on fire, and they'll be without their best defensive player, but I think they'll score enough to run away from a Marshall offense that has very little bite, especially in the passing game under Pennington. I can see a 34-10 type game here, and the 10 might be pushing it.
 
I dunno thst I agree bout Pennington, I dunno that I disagree either, lol. I don’t feel like he has been on the field enough for us to know, has he? my main belief is I’m somewhat surprised the kid who started for Marshall most the year is actually getting NIL offers from power 5 schools! Is he really better than Pennington kid or just a year ahead of him? I’d bet the latter and now Pennington has gotten a bunch of hopefully good practices in! One thing I do kinda disagree about is I think Pennington taking over this offense will give them a way bigger motivational edge than they woulda had with the kid transferring. Not saying they will hold a edge over utsa in that regard as I agree Frank Harris playing his last game of his 15 year career should hold a great deal of meaning! Actually think it makes for a spirited game on both sides and possibly a little better Marshall offense than the one who struggled to score 10 in the games you mentioned.



I’m assuming Marshall top bsvk Ali is gonna play? I’ve heard a few different things, I see posted prop numbers for him which id say makes it bout 75% likely he plays. I think him sitting would be a bigger problem than the qb change. The problem here unless one of us has incredible access to those bowl practices imo we are totally guessing on the difference between the kid hitting the portal and Pennington, that sucks! Assuming Ali plays Marshall does have a few things going for them, most importantly might be the fact they been one the best red zone defenses in the country only allowing td’s on 72% opponents chances. I believe utsa will most def move the ball between the 20s but if Marshall d can hold up in the red zone then also get a solid effort from their rb on offense all a sudden this game moves quickly and 2tds a lot to cover kicking fgs. Conversely utsa defense gives up tds damn near always when teams are able to get into the red zone against them, regardless how we view Pennington v the transfer I think it safe to say Pennington can’t possibly be worse than the 75% red zone success the other kid had! And while I don’t disagree about where you consider utsa stacking up vs the teams We Are struggled to get to 10 against I will say utsa red zone d appears to be considerably worse than those schools. Honestly just his last name makes me think Pennington enough a gamer he will score tds at a higher clip than the transfer if given the chance against a very bad red zone d.

Im not super interested in a side, I think I’d lean to the points and the under as it feels like a game you could very well walk away having laid the -12 and thinking “how the hell did we not cover when we out gained them by 200 freaking yards!”, nothing more annoying than that!

What I’m really trying to figure out is can We Are make this a competitive enough game that Frank Harris playing his last game of his 15 year college career is still throwing passes in the 4th qrtr?!? His passing totals are all freaking over the place, in 8 conf games he failed to throw for 209 yards in half of them, but the other 4 he threw for 300+ in 3 of them and 260 in another! And here his number sits at 237.5, I think it fair to say they gonna be way off on this number, it just figuring out which direction is really tricky!! FanDuel has sone alt numbers that if I trusted Marshall a lick I would consider playing him up to 300+ passing cause I think Marshall d can limit the utsa run game. Anyways sorry i have a prop thread my juices just started flowing better after reading your writeup @Br@ssknux!! I hope I’m wrong bout the spread and utsa covers for you, or better yet I hope I’m mostly right but then Harris throws a few 4th qrtr tds to cap his career in style and win the game 34-14!!
 
I’m o no UTSA as well, was with you on Cal, New Mexico St but was on UCLA large. I’m on Syracuse tomorrow at -2 now. NFL has been my strong point of late going

Week 14 NFL
101-NE +6-18 $
110-Chicago +3’ -24 [1.1.]$
112-New Orleans -5 [1.1]$
116-Cincinnati-2’-15 [1.1]$
113-Tampa Bay +2 [.55]$
120-San Fran -11 [1.1]$
132-NY Giants +7-14 [.55]$
106-Under Clev 31 [.55] [Loss]
115-Over Indy 44 [1.1]$
117-Over Houston 33 [.55]$

NFL Week 15
Las Vegas -3 [1.1]$
Detroit -5 [1.1]$
Miami -9’ [1.1]$
Miami-7 [.5]$
Colts-1’-13 [1.1]$
Min +3’-14 [.55]$
328-Seattle +4 [.88]$
313-Ov TB 41 -20 [1.1]$
331-Ov KC 39 [.55]$

Exotics 4-2 as well, these are all documented on Telegram so it’s taken away from college Prep.
 
2daBank said:
I dunno thst I agree bout Pennington, I dunno that I disagree either, lol. I don’t feel like he has been on the field enough for us to know, has he? my main belief is I’m somewhat surprised the kid who started for Marshall most the year is actually getting NIL offers from power 5 schools! Is he really better than Pennington kid or just a year ahead of him? I’d bet the latter and now Pennington has gotten a bunch of hopefully good practices in! One thing I do kinda disagree about is I think Pennington taking over this offense will give them a way bigger motivational edge than they woulda had with the kid transferring. Not saying they will hold a edge over utsa in that regard as I agree Frank Harris playing his last game of his 15 year career should hold a great deal of meaning! Actually think it makes for a spirited game on both sides and possibly a little better Marshall offense than the one who struggled to score 10 in the games you mentioned.



I’m assuming Marshall top bsvk Ali is gonna play? I’ve heard a few different things, I see posted prop numbers for him which id say makes it bout 75% likely he plays. I think him sitting would be a bigger problem than the qb change. The problem here unless one of us has incredible access to those bowl practices imo we are totally guessing on the difference between the kid hitting the portal and Pennington, that sucks! Assuming Ali plays Marshall does have a few things going for them, most importantly might be the fact they been one the best red zone defenses in the country only allowing td’s on 72% opponents chances. I believe utsa will most def move the ball between the 20s but if Marshall d can hold up in the red zone then also get a solid effort from their rb on offense all a sudden this game moves quickly and 2tds a lot to cover kicking fgs. Conversely utsa defense gives up tds damn near always when teams are able to get into the red zone against them, regardless how we view Pennington v the transfer I think it safe to say Pennington can’t possibly be worse than the 75% red zone success the other kid had! And while I don’t disagree about where you consider utsa stacking up vs the teams We Are struggled to get to 10 against I will say utsa red zone d appears to be considerably worse than those schools. Honestly just his last name makes me think Pennington enough a gamer he will score tds at a higher clip than the transfer if given the chance against a very bad red zone d.

Im not super interested in a side, I think I’d lean to the points and the under as it feels like a game you could very well walk away having laid the -12 and thinking “how the hell did we not cover when we out gained them by 200 freaking yards!”, nothing more annoying than that!

What I’m really trying to figure out is can We Are make this a competitive enough game that Frank Harris playing his last game of his 15 year college career is still throwing passes in the 4th qrtr?!? His passing totals are all freaking over the place, in 8 conf games he failed to throw for 209 yards in half of them, but the other 4 he threw for 300+ in 3 of them and 260 in another! And here his number sits at 237.5, I think it fair to say they gonna be way off on this number, it just figuring out which direction is really tricky!! FanDuel has sone alt numbers that if I trusted Marshall a lick I would consider playing him up to 300+ passing cause I think Marshall d can limit the utsa run game. Anyways sorry i have a prop thread my juices just started flowing better after reading your writeup @Br@ssknux!! I hope I’m wrong bout the spread and utsa covers for you, or better yet I hope I’m mostly right but then Harris throws a few 4th qrtr tds to cap his career in style and win the game 34-14!!
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Good points, Bank, it's not an absolute science as I have proven time and time again as many times as I'm wrong on here. To answer a couple questions, Ali is kind of a mystery. There's rumblings that he might be a late scratch, but I'm working under the assumption he's gonna play. In those road losses I was talking about, he played in all of them, and he was pretty effective in every one.

Ga State: 19/103
Coastal: 12/52
Appy: 11/68
S.ALAB: 16/55

Ultimately, despite him being effective, Marshall was still non-competitive in those games because they weren't balanced. I think you bring up a good point about Pennington and motivation because he is certainly a feel good story for everyone there and there's lots of hope that he can be a leader, but I think they also have to overcome the disappointment of underachieving this year, and if they don't get off to a good start, it could be tough for them to get back in the game based on how they've looked on offense all year. Last thing on motivation: HC Chares Huff was kind of a media darling last year, especially after they knocked off ND in South bend. He was on a lot of short lists, but he's fallen out of favor based on this year's results. I heard that he was REALLY interested in cashing in and was super active last year trying to get a job. I've also heard he's back channeling and would take a major DC job if the right one came along(saw him rumored for Penn State). Not sure he's 100% bought in there. Again, that's just what I've heard, but HC is super important to motivation.
 
Gordon gekko said:
I’m o no UTSA as well, was with you on Cal, New Mexico St but was on UCLA large. I’m on Syracuse tomorrow at -2 now. NFL has been my strong point of late going

Week 14 NFL
101-NE +6-18 $
110-Chicago +3’ -24 [1.1.]$
112-New Orleans -5 [1.1]$
116-Cincinnati-2’-15 [1.1]$
113-Tampa Bay +2 [.55]$
120-San Fran -11 [1.1]$
132-NY Giants +7-14 [.55]$
106-Under Clev 31 [.55] [Loss]
115-Over Indy 44 [1.1]$
117-Over Houston 33 [.55]$

NFL Week 15
Las Vegas -3 [1.1]$
Detroit -5 [1.1]$
Miami -9’ [1.1]$
Miami-7 [.5]$
Colts-1’-13 [1.1]$
Min +3’-14 [.55]$
328-Seattle +4 [.88]$
313-Ov TB 41 -20 [1.1]$
331-Ov KC 39 [.55]$

Exotics 4-2 as well, these are all documented on Telegram so it’s taken away from college Prep.
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Almost gotta have a good feel on nfl right now, this year has to be the worst bowl season of my life, not cause any one thing but all the things that have slowly been eating away at the bowl season we grew up with as we move to a 12 team playoff. This the 1st year in my life when you said you were on cuse 2marro I seriously had to look and see who they playing! For the last 15 years I would have at least a paragraph of notes on the games, leans, or already made plays. Just wasn’t any point to look this year, last year I did far less but I at least played confidence pools and had a good idea who was playing! Now day of games I might take a peak, shit has went from something I counted on making money at to basically feeling like lotto scratch off! Lol
 
Br@ssknux said:
Good points, Bank, it's not an absolute science as I have proven time and time again as many times as I'm wrong on here. To answer a couple questions, Ali is kind of a mystery. There's rumblings that he might be a late scratch, but I'm working under the assumption he's gonna play. In those road losses I was talking about, he played in all of them, and he was pretty effective in every one.

Ga State: 19/103
Coastal: 12/52
Appy: 11/68
S.ALAB: 16/55

Ultimately, despite him being effective, Marshall was still non-competitive in those games because they weren't balanced. I think you bring up a good point about Pennington and motivation because he is certainly a feel good story for everyone there and there's lots of hope that he can be a leader, but I think they also have to overcome the disappointment of underachieving this year, and if they don't get off to a good start, it could be tough for them to get back in the game based on how they've looked on offense all year. Last thing on motivation: HC Chares Huff was kind of a media darling last year, especially after they knocked off ND in South bend. He was on a lot of short lists, but he's fallen out of favor based on this year's results. I heard that he was REALLY interested in cashing in and was super active last year trying to get a job. I've also heard he's back channeling and would take a major DC job if the right one came along(saw him rumored for Penn State). Not sure he's 100% bought in there. Again, that's just what I've heard, but HC is super important to motivation.
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I think Harris last game in a decade of utsa football absolutely gives you at minimum as much motivation, very possibly more. Maybe it just me but as I mentioned several times this bowl season these are damn near no better than a fuvkin scratch off!! I’m sure we will get a few I find legit edges in, they just not here yet and I’ve spent no time looking ahead cause why? I know Gtech/ucf interest me Friday but I still havnt looked enough at any the numbers or capped it to know if and where value may be! I just know there some favorable matchups in that game I believe can actually be capped opposed to guessing on what the Fuvk Pennington is gonna bring!! Even Harris who should be a breeze to cap at this point has had one the most oddly inconsistent seasons from a statistical standpoint! This Mfer has 4 conf games he threw for under 200 yards, then 3 he went well over 300 with a 400+ thrown in!!! My whole thing here is can Marshall do one of 2 things I believe would keep game close and Harris throwing. They can either continue to be a very strong red zone d and hold utsa to fgs. In which case Harris should rack up ysrfs between the 20s, or Pennington can actually be a spark and simply punch in the 1-2 chances I assume most any offense outta be able to get thru 3 qrtrs!! I like his chances of increasing We Are red zone efficiency but I have no clue if he capable of making the throws and plays between the 20s to get those chances!! Lol.

Whether I love the direction we heading at least next year be much less guess work overall. I managed to pull out something like 27-8 last season w mostly props before the playoffs, forget exactly but it was all in a thread, felt like that was end of a era as even the games I missed were mostly not result of poor capping but rather me trying to guess which player would replace a transfer guy and watching it be a different kid who of course easily smashed his number! Not all that relevant im just high and rambling, lol.

This year I’m hoping I can keep the success but I know to do so I’m gonna be making half the plays which sucks, especially cause I started off with a bang going something like 0-4 Saturday on mostly non-sense! Lmao. The new me has been curled up like a cobra trying to wait for ones that don’t feel like scratch off tickets, I’m just losing my patients!! lol. The only appeal for me trying to figure Harris out is I believe oddsmakers had the same problem as me making his line, imo there is little chance they close with this number, he either comes up 40+ yards short or he clears it by 60+, im sure not a ideal feeling for them either!!! Im kinda trying to use your thoughts on side to come up w Harris number. The best picture I have of you covering and it workin out that Harris creams his passing prop is utsa going into the 4th up 20-14 and Harris throws 2 4th qrtr tds to seal his career in style!! Worst case for my Harris angle and you covering would be Pennington being awful, Marshall d holding up in red zone but utsa giving Harris and co short fields, we get to the 4th of a massively boring game utsa is up 26-6 and nobody throws another pass on his way to 184 total yards. Lol. Could be I should just wait another day or 2! Although in scenario 2 I do like Devin McCuin ov 40 rec yards a bit. Feel like they might be a bit high on utsa lead wr Cepheus at 80ish yards and should absolutely be Marshall d main focus.
 
Anyways thanks for helping me talk it out bro. I know you don’t do props but I feel like getting a good discussion on the game helps for any possible plays, plus nailing props down often helps a great deal in having the score correct!
 
I used to do pretty well on props back 12-15 years ago and it was almost exclusively playing unders. If I thought a guy could go over, I passed. Books have caught up since then and there's so much more offense that that particular strategy isn't sound anymore, but shit. it worked like a charm back in the day.
 
Br@ssknux said:
I used to do pretty well on props back 12-15 years ago and it was almost exclusively playing unders. If I thought a guy could go over, I passed. Books have caught up since then and there's so much more offense that that particular strategy isn't sound anymore, but shit. it worked like a charm back in the day.
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That’s hilarious, all my life I been like 80% under w totals, often passed if I liked over. I still prefer under totals. Since I started props 2-3 years ago I can’t hit a under to save my life! If I don’t like over I pass! Lol. I know they tend to shade things over but im patient enough I can wait for overs I feel have value. This been a gradual move, started wit nfl props mostly just cause nfl never been a sport I plan on making money anyways, I’ve had good years, had bad years, had so so years but imo nfl sides by far the hardest to consistently win at. Started playing props and doing very well. Next thing ya know I was playing ncaa and no surprise doing even better with more games, more mistakes by books, and I just like ncaa more., wasn’t long till baseball which has always been the sport I have no doubt I’m making money coming into every season, 0, zilch, It not like football where im sitting around watching but i love capping and betting it, it’s a lot of work but again I love capping it way more than actually watching the games, unless I need a good nap!! Lol. Anyways I quickly started finding holes in pitcher props and busting their heads at a crazy clip , all still overs tho, never unders!!! Any time I even think bout a under it goes over within 5 min!!! I’ve had to kinda maneuver my way around, after mostly strikeout props they started getting sharper w those and I started playing way more total out props and had to be far more selective w over k’s. End of last season I even began to start branching into hitter props which I never thought would happen as capping pitchers my thing, I guess you could say in a round about way when I’m betting pitcher props over it mostly saying I like the under pitcher runs allowed!!

This year I’m staring to dabble into ncaa hoops props, think I might hsve finally found a sport where I can hit under props!! Very very small sample but no lie, the 4-5 unders I’ve hit in ncaa hoops is more under winners than I’ve had in years of all the others combined!! Lol. So freaking weird!!

Last night I freaking loved a under on Monday night, despite knowing better I went for it:, Walker under 47.5 rush yards., believe he doubled it!! Won’t happen again!! Lol
 
2daBank said:
That’s hilarious, all my life I been like 80% under w totals, often passed if I liked over. I still prefer under totals. Since I started props 2-3 years ago I can’t hit a under to save my life! If I don’t like over I pass! Lol. I know they tend to shade things over but im patient enough I can wait for overs I feel have value. This been a gradual move, started wit nfl props mostly just cause nfl never been a sport I plan on making money anyways, I’ve had good years, had bad years, had so so years but imo nfl sides by far the hardest to consistently win at. Started playing props and doing very well. Next thing ya know I was playing ncaa and no surprise doing even better with more games, more mistakes by books, and I just like ncaa more., wasn’t long till baseball which has always been the sport I have no doubt I’m making money coming into every season, 0, zilch, It not like football where im sitting around watching but i love capping and betting it, it’s a lot of work but again I love capping it way more than actually watching the games, unless I need a good nap!! Lol. Anyways I quickly started finding holes in pitcher props and busting their heads at a crazy clip , all still overs tho, never unders!!! Any time I even think bout a under it goes over within 5 min!!! I’ve had to kinda maneuver my way around, after mostly strikeout props they started getting sharper w those and I started playing way more total out props and had to be far more selective w over k’s. End of last season I even began to start branching into hitter props which I never thought would happen as capping pitchers my thing, I guess you could say in a round about way when I’m betting pitcher props over it mostly saying I like the under pitcher runs allowed!!

This year I’m staring to dabble into ncaa hoops props, think I might hsve finally found a sport where I can hit under props!! Very very small sample but no lie, the 4-5 unders I’ve hit in ncaa hoops is more under winners than I’ve had in years of all the others combined!! Lol. So freaking weird!!

Last night I freaking loved a under on Monday night, despite knowing better I went for it:, Walker under 47.5 rush yards., believe he doubled it!! Won’t happen again!! Lol
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It's like me with totals.
 
2daBank said:
Almost gotta have a good feel on nfl right now, this year has to be the worst bowl season of my life, not cause any one thing but all the things that have slowly been eating away at the bowl season we grew up with as we move to a 12 team playoff. This the 1st year in my life when you said you were on cuse 2marro I seriously had to look and see who they playing! For the last 15 years I would have at least a paragraph of notes on the games, leans, or already made plays. Just wasn’t any point to look this year, last year I did far less but I at least played confidence pools and had a good idea who was playing! Now day of games I might take a peak, shit has went from something I counted on making money at to basically feeling like lotto scratch off! Lol
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I have the least amount of confidence this year in bowl games as transfer portal really has destroyed the team game, it’s more of depth knowledge which is not my strong point, I’m trying to basically play what teams have the most snaps going into the game. Rule out Draft prospects, transfers, injuries, Head Coach mysteries, Coordinator mysteries, it’s a real difficult game to cap. NFL has been a two week record for me, 12-0 this week and 2 losses the week before, just hitting model w trends, injuries and game plan all together. Nice when it works, when it doesn’t feels like I don’t know anything, lol
 
What a fucking joke.. Hurt in the Tulane game a month ago, LOL, and no mention that he'll be out until a couple hours before the game. Bad time to be running around. You have to be refreshing Twitter 24/7 to keep up with this shit. What a joke. I read a story last night that said Harris and some other guy are going to be holding back tears as they play their last game.
 
"Let's give McCown an easy throw to boost his confidence". So he throws it to the 400 pound TE wearing #9 who hands it to the Marshall defender on the 5 yard line. Nice.

Good night.
 
Br@ssknux said:
What a fucking joke.. Hurt in the Tulane game a month ago, LOL, and no mention that he'll be out until a couple hours before the game. Bad time to be running around. You have to be refreshing Twitter 24/7 to keep up with this shit. What a joke. I read a story last night that said Harris and some other guy are going to be holding back tears as they play their last game.
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Yeah, that Harris thing was weird all around. Just another cautionary tale during these meaningless bowls.

UTSA was comatose in the 1Q and Marshall started talking crap on the field after going up early. Did that wake up UTSA? Who knows. But it didn't hurt to get UTSA interested in the game.

Marshall was so bad, especially without Ali going on a picnic in the 2H, that it probably wasn't going to matter.
 
Frank Costanza said:
Yeah, that Harris thing was weird all around. Just another cautionary tale during these meaningless bowls.

UTSA was comatose in the 1Q and Marshall started talking crap on the field after going up early. Did that wake up UTSA? Who knows. But it didn't hurt to get UTSA interested in the game.

Marshall was so bad, especially without Ali going on a picnic in the 2H, that it probably wasn't going to matter.
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I noticed that too. I think you’re right on.
 
Boca Raton Bowl: Not playing this one. We have no idea who’s going to be playing QB for Syracuse, it might be the TE running wildcat but the way things have been going, that doesn’t mean they won’t score. 3rd string QBs have been covering left and right, and this USF defense is capable of giving up truckloads of points to everyone. I do kind of like USF’s offense though, it’s been sneaky good in some games but totally unpredictable. No clue on this one, so I’m not going to even try.
 
Br@ssknux said:
Boca Raton Bowl: Not playing this one. We have no idea who’s going to be playing QB for Syracuse, it might be the TE running wildcat but the way things have been going, that doesn’t mean they won’t score. 3rd string QBs have been covering left and right, and this USF defense is capable of giving up truckloads of points to everyone. I do kind of like USF’s offense though, it’s been sneaky good in some games but totally unpredictable. No clue on this one, so I’m not going to even try.
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sounds like a play to the over. Who doesn't like a good over?!
 
6. Gasparilla Bowl: UCF -4.5 v Georgia Tech: The Yellowjackets were good to me this year, but although I think they'll score in this one, I really don't see how they can compete defensively against this UCF offense that appears to have all of their playmakers available. The best I can tell, there aren't a lot of meaningful opt outs on either side of this one. The best edge rusher Georgia Tech has(Kyle Kennard) isn't going to play and UCF's best cover guy Corey Thornton is also in the portal. Both are big losses so the defenses that looked to be behind the 8 ball coming in will be even worse off. UCF was extremely balanced all year on a per play basis, ranking 6th in overall yards per play, 3rd in rushing yards per carry and 11th in yards per pass attempt. Top receivers Javon Baker and Kobe Hudson are both playing, and they both averaged more than 20 yards per catch and combined for 13 TDs. However, the run game is Malzahn's bread and butter and this is going to be a mismatch in that department. Tech ranks 127th in yards per rush attempt against. EVERYBODY ran the ball at will on GT this year as 8 of their opponents topped 200 yards rushing and a couple more were over 175. QB John Rhys Plumlee will be at what appear to be full strength in this one and he'll have RJ Harvey with him, the 1200 yard RB that announced today that he'll be back next year. Their backup RB Johnny Richardson also averaged almost 7 yards per carry, so there won't be any let up when Harvey gets a rest. UCF looks to be about the worst possible matchup for this Ga tech defense with as well as they run the ball. The same can be said for GT who are a bit of a poor man's version of the UCF offense. Haynes King runs it well and OC Buster Faulkner was tricking people most of the year, but UCF has shown some ability to stop the run, most recently when they held Ollie Gordon to almost nothing when Okie State got blown out 45-3 in the bounce house. GT is more one dimensional than UCF, and I show a slight edge for the UCF defense when it comes to the passing game. Not the case on the other side of the ball as GT is 88th in yards per pass attempt allowed. Malzahn commented that UVF plans to contend for the Big 12 title and playoff berth next year, and the road starts with this game. The lack of significant opt outs bodes well for UCF's motivation, and although GT should be fired up to play in their first bowl in awhile, I think they'll have a hard time keeping up once this game settles in.
 
Saturday--Birmingham Bowl: When I looked at this one on paper, I actually had Troy with an edge(although there was a pretty big SOS difference in Duke's favor) and that was before half of Duke's squad jumped in the transfer portal and HC Mike Elko left for A&M, depriving the Blue Devils of his solid game planning acumen. There are some very damaging departures for Duke, including RB Jordan Waters, 2nd leading receiver Jalon Calhoun, starting LT Graham Barton, 5 major contributors on defense and of course QB Riley Leonard who is off to Notre Dame. Troy is missing their top LB Jayden McDonald(another Jayden...what percentage of college athletes are named some version of Jalen/Jalon for Jayden/Jaden? 75%??) but that's about it although their head coach Jon Sumrall took the Tulane job so they'll be under an interim before ND OC Gerard Butler takes over. Having sad all that, I just can't lay 7 with Troy here. Despite Leonard being out for Duke, their backup, Grayson Loftis has been in there for awhile and settled in their last couple of games. They still have Jordan Moore at WR and Jacquez Moore at RB and the Sun Belt hasn't exactly been lighting the world on fire. Give Duke the added motivation of being a significant dog to a SunBelt team and I think this game will probably be close. Despite the advantages on paper, I would not lay this with Troy.
 
Br@ssknux said:
6. Gasparilla Bowl: UCF -4.5 v Georgia Tech: The Yellowjackets were good to me this year, but although I think they'll score in this one, I really don't see how they can compete defensively against this UCF offense that appears to have all of their playmakers available. The best I can tell, there aren't a lot of meaningful opt outs on either side of this one. The best edge rusher Georgia Tech has(Kyle Kennard) isn't going to play and UCF's best cover guy Corey Thornton is also in the portal. Both are big losses so the defenses that looked to be behind the 8 ball coming in will be even worse off. UCF was extremely balanced all year on a per play basis, ranking 6th in overall yards per play, 3rd in rushing yards per carry and 11th in yards per pass attempt. Top receivers Javon Baker and Kobe Hudson are both playing, and they both averaged more than 20 yards per catch and combined for 13 TDs. However, the run game is Malzahn's bread and butter and this is going to be a mismatch in that department. Tech ranks 127th in yards per rush attempt against. EVERYBODY ran the ball at will on GT this year as 8 of their opponents topped 200 yards rushing and a couple more were over 175. QB John Rhys Plumlee will be at what appear to be full strength in this one and he'll have RJ Harvey with him, the 1200 yard RB that announced today that he'll be back next year. Their backup RB Johnny Richardson also averaged almost 7 yards per carry, so there won't be any let up when Harvey gets a rest. UCF looks to be about the worst possible matchup for this Ga tech defense with as well as they run the ball. The same can be said for GT who are a bit of a poor man's version of the UCF offense. Haynes King runs it well and OC Buster Faulkner was tricking people most of the year, but UCF has shown some ability to stop the run, most recently when they held Ollie Gordon to almost nothing when Okie State got blown out 45-3 in the bounce house. GT is more one dimensional than UCF, and I show a slight edge for the UCF defense when it comes to the passing game. Not the case on the other side of the ball as GT is 88th in yards per pass attempt allowed. Malzahn commented that UVF plans to contend for the Big 12 title and playoff berth next year, and the road starts with this game. The lack of significant opt outs bodes well for UCF's motivation, and although GT should be fired up to play in their first bowl in awhile, I think they'll have a hard time keeping up once this game settles in.
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This 1st bowl game of the year that screams over props across the board! I just hope we can get to kickoff without a bunch of guys sitting.
 
I'm not sure GT would have won a game in the big 12 this season. Like UCF a lot!
 
KJ said:
Yet would have finished top 4 in the ACC.

Can't do this all day though, need to focus on soccer and not out thinking myself!
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Lmao. Not a chance and I’ve said a bunch the acc was way down. The big 12 was watered down trash tho, so much so a awful okie state team made the champ game: that screams how awful big 12 was. I know I need to look at hoops but cmon w this crazy talk.
 
honestly I think it tough to say what ucf season coulda been anywhere cause Plumlee was out a lot but the teams they played certainly wernt better than who Gtech played
 
i don’t even think it arguable king will be the 2nd best qb ucf has seen all year and their best corner opted out
 
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