Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
Yeah. I feel the same way. We're going to be on the same side on pretty much the rest of the bowl slate though. :shake:
Bowl write ups and hopefully feedback
- Thread starter Br@ssknux
- Start date
Yeah. I feel the same way. We're going to be on the same side on pretty much the rest of the bowl slate though. :shake:
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
As for tomorrow, in the first game of the day, I originally leaned to Auburn -7 but I'm a little afraid that Wisconsin will come out like gangbusters after the disaster they had in the Big ten title game, and Auburn's defense is vulnerable to giving up big chunks of yardage. Major schedule edge for Auburn though, and I think Wisconsin is going to have a hell of a time stopping that Auburn offense. Kind of a tossup for me.
15. Michigan State +3(-120) v Baylor: This is another case of a couple of teams that are evenly matched. Both teams are very balanced, with good offenses and very competent defenses. Their schedules are pretty similar only because Michigan State had a relatively soft Big Ten schedule. Surprisingly, MSU was a better ypp offense than Baylor, and MSU ran the ball significantly better than Baylor did this year. MSU actually has the edge on both sides of the ball in the passing game, especially when they're on offense as Baylor ranked only 77th against the pass. I think Tony Lippett will have a big day. At times, we've seen Baylor's offense get gummed up when teams take away their slants, and MSU did a great job against the pass this year, ranking 5th in passer rating against. They also pressure the QB well, and like all QBs, Petty isn't the same guy when he faces pressure. Sizable special teams edge for MSU too.
16. Minnesota +4.5 v Missouri: This is another case in which the teams are very evenly matched. Missouri's defense is legitimately solid and probably is a couple notches above Minnesota's, but Minnesota's defense will have the edge against the Tiger offense as well. Maty Mauk at times appears completely incapable of completing a forward pass, and Minnesota's defense is adept against the pass, ranking 34th. Minnesota is a team that never quits, is well coached and finds ways to get themselves in position to win. Their special teams are good, the rarely lose the field position battle, and even though Jerry Kill doesn't have a great bowl record, there's no doubting his coaching chops. They've also not made a Florida NYD bowl appearance in ages, maybe ever, so they will be sky high for this one. The fact that you get more than a FG with such a live dog puts me on the Minnesota side, even though I fully realize that the Gophers are going to have a very tall order in trying to move the ball on that Mizzou defense.
17. Florida State +8 v Oregon: In my opinion, this is an auto play. I can see why Oregon is favored when looking at the numbers, and it's true that FSU has not really played well all year, but we are talking about a team that has not lost in more than 2 years. They win, and this will be a case in which Oregon is going to face athletes on par with them, if not more talented. Oregon's defense is decent, but has had episodes in which they've given up gobs of yards, and they'll be without their All American corner. I'm sure that they have capable backups, but when you are trying to stop Rashad Greene, you need all hands on deck. I also think FSU is going to abandon the power running game and go full bore with Dalvin Cook who I think is one of the most explosive players in the country. There's no doubt that Mariota is a stud, and that Oregon's offense is almost impossible to stop, but more than a TD with a team that has proven they do not lose, and hasn't been dogged since September of 2011 is too much to pass up.
18. Ohio State +9 v Alabama: I am still not convinced that this Alabama team is up to par with the championship level Alabama teams we've seen in the past. They've handled the pretenders, but had difficulty when facing solid squads. Say what you will about Ohio State, they are a very balanced team. Just about every unit is among the best in the country, and on paper they match up just fine with the Tide. They also have an overwhelming advantage in special teams and Alabama struggles with read option offenses. I also have the utmost respect for Urban Meyer, especially when he's dogged. We've gone over this before, but since his days at Utah, he is now 14-2 ATS as a dog, and is now 4-0 outright as a dog since he's been at Ohio State. We've all seen the Big Ten/Northern team v Alabama thing before, but I think under Meyer, things will be different this time.
15. Michigan State +3(-120) v Baylor: This is another case of a couple of teams that are evenly matched. Both teams are very balanced, with good offenses and very competent defenses. Their schedules are pretty similar only because Michigan State had a relatively soft Big Ten schedule. Surprisingly, MSU was a better ypp offense than Baylor, and MSU ran the ball significantly better than Baylor did this year. MSU actually has the edge on both sides of the ball in the passing game, especially when they're on offense as Baylor ranked only 77th against the pass. I think Tony Lippett will have a big day. At times, we've seen Baylor's offense get gummed up when teams take away their slants, and MSU did a great job against the pass this year, ranking 5th in passer rating against. They also pressure the QB well, and like all QBs, Petty isn't the same guy when he faces pressure. Sizable special teams edge for MSU too.
16. Minnesota +4.5 v Missouri: This is another case in which the teams are very evenly matched. Missouri's defense is legitimately solid and probably is a couple notches above Minnesota's, but Minnesota's defense will have the edge against the Tiger offense as well. Maty Mauk at times appears completely incapable of completing a forward pass, and Minnesota's defense is adept against the pass, ranking 34th. Minnesota is a team that never quits, is well coached and finds ways to get themselves in position to win. Their special teams are good, the rarely lose the field position battle, and even though Jerry Kill doesn't have a great bowl record, there's no doubting his coaching chops. They've also not made a Florida NYD bowl appearance in ages, maybe ever, so they will be sky high for this one. The fact that you get more than a FG with such a live dog puts me on the Minnesota side, even though I fully realize that the Gophers are going to have a very tall order in trying to move the ball on that Mizzou defense.
17. Florida State +8 v Oregon: In my opinion, this is an auto play. I can see why Oregon is favored when looking at the numbers, and it's true that FSU has not really played well all year, but we are talking about a team that has not lost in more than 2 years. They win, and this will be a case in which Oregon is going to face athletes on par with them, if not more talented. Oregon's defense is decent, but has had episodes in which they've given up gobs of yards, and they'll be without their All American corner. I'm sure that they have capable backups, but when you are trying to stop Rashad Greene, you need all hands on deck. I also think FSU is going to abandon the power running game and go full bore with Dalvin Cook who I think is one of the most explosive players in the country. There's no doubt that Mariota is a stud, and that Oregon's offense is almost impossible to stop, but more than a TD with a team that has proven they do not lose, and hasn't been dogged since September of 2011 is too much to pass up.
18. Ohio State +9 v Alabama: I am still not convinced that this Alabama team is up to par with the championship level Alabama teams we've seen in the past. They've handled the pretenders, but had difficulty when facing solid squads. Say what you will about Ohio State, they are a very balanced team. Just about every unit is among the best in the country, and on paper they match up just fine with the Tide. They also have an overwhelming advantage in special teams and Alabama struggles with read option offenses. I also have the utmost respect for Urban Meyer, especially when he's dogged. We've gone over this before, but since his days at Utah, he is now 14-2 ATS as a dog, and is now 4-0 outright as a dog since he's been at Ohio State. We've all seen the Big Ten/Northern team v Alabama thing before, but I think under Meyer, things will be different this time.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
Thanks CC. 600+ yards of offense and Miss St was never truly in the game. Not sure I've seen that before. I thought Bulldogs would move at will and they did, but only between the 20s.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
Same to you HUNT as always.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
Thanks Dwight. I love doing it because I'm an analysis junkie like a lot of guys on here, but it's comments like this that motivate me to share on here. There's a bunch of must reads on the site, just glad to share. :shake:
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
Good call on this one.
Where do you get the numbers for schedule-adjusted defensive efficiency? Are they online somewhere, or is it your own personal analysis?
spanishshark
Youngest guy on the forum
GL my friend. With you on all of them today except FSU. I can live with that. Let's gettem :cheers3:
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
I have to go the other way on the OSU game. In hindsight, I think the blowout win in the Big 10 championship game is due to facing a team demoralized by their coach's departure. You could view the win as a healthy confidence-builder, but more often it seems that teams that have big wins for reasons other than their own ability wind up overconfident.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
I'm not touching Pitt v Houston. I think Pitt has a really good offense and I think Houston's positive defensive stats are misleading, but Pitt finds a way to lose games like this and there's no telling their motivation after they've been abandoned by their coach. On paper, Pitt is better though. Also passing on Oklahoma State/Washington. Washington, although very stout on defense, has a weak offense, one not quite set up to be covering near TD spreads. Also, New OSU QB Mason Rudolph has put up much improved numbers over the other OSU QBs this year, so their YTD numbers are skewed and tough to analyze.
19. Iowa +3.5 v Tennessee: Both teans have solid defenses and pedestrian offenses, so this game is yet another one between similar, evenly matched squads. 3.5, in my opinion, is too much regardless of who is favored. Iowa should have a strong edge when their defense is on the field, and although they haven't typically pressured the QB this year, Tennessee is ranked 121st in the country in sacks allowed, so I think we can expect Ferentz and company to dial up the pressure. This Tennessee offense is actually a pretty good matchup for Iowa, as the Vols aren't very fast and depend on the consistent power running game of Jaylon Heard. The Hawkeyes don't have to worry about having their lack of speed exposed against this offense. I think the edge enjoyed by the Iowa defense over the UT offense is more of an advantage than vice versa, so I'll gladly take the 3.5. Ferentz also sports a 9-3 bowl record, so his bowl process certainly is tried and true.
20. UCLA -1.5 v Kansas State: Too bad this game isn't on grass and is stuck in a dome because this has the makings on a great uniform game. If UCLA wears the home blues, even better. Surprisingly, Bill Snyder is 5-10 in bowls, so the regular season in conference deference to him won't be found here. UCLA has a very explosive and efficient offense, ranking 4th in efficiency while K State's defense is ranked 60th. Believe it or not, I think UCLA provides one of the tougher defenses on the K state schedule. Everyone loves K State, and with good reason, but their signature win was a squeaker in Norman, and just about everyone has had their way with Oklahoma lately. UCLA is coming off a shit performance, I think they'll come out ready to go and I think they'll be too much for the K state defense.
21. East Carolina +7 v Florida: The motivation in this one will be squarely on the ECU side. I just don't see how Florida will have any chance to be motivated in this game, which such a nondescript opponent in a nowheresville location. I also see them struggling to move the ball(as usual), as ECU has a very competent defense. As for the offense, Shane Carden has proven that he can move the ball on just about anyone, and in a demoralizing fashion. I think ECU can beat them outright as the Florida offense can't score, and I still think they'll have trouble covering downfield.
19. Iowa +3.5 v Tennessee: Both teans have solid defenses and pedestrian offenses, so this game is yet another one between similar, evenly matched squads. 3.5, in my opinion, is too much regardless of who is favored. Iowa should have a strong edge when their defense is on the field, and although they haven't typically pressured the QB this year, Tennessee is ranked 121st in the country in sacks allowed, so I think we can expect Ferentz and company to dial up the pressure. This Tennessee offense is actually a pretty good matchup for Iowa, as the Vols aren't very fast and depend on the consistent power running game of Jaylon Heard. The Hawkeyes don't have to worry about having their lack of speed exposed against this offense. I think the edge enjoyed by the Iowa defense over the UT offense is more of an advantage than vice versa, so I'll gladly take the 3.5. Ferentz also sports a 9-3 bowl record, so his bowl process certainly is tried and true.
20. UCLA -1.5 v Kansas State: Too bad this game isn't on grass and is stuck in a dome because this has the makings on a great uniform game. If UCLA wears the home blues, even better. Surprisingly, Bill Snyder is 5-10 in bowls, so the regular season in conference deference to him won't be found here. UCLA has a very explosive and efficient offense, ranking 4th in efficiency while K State's defense is ranked 60th. Believe it or not, I think UCLA provides one of the tougher defenses on the K state schedule. Everyone loves K State, and with good reason, but their signature win was a squeaker in Norman, and just about everyone has had their way with Oklahoma lately. UCLA is coming off a shit performance, I think they'll come out ready to go and I think they'll be too much for the K state defense.
21. East Carolina +7 v Florida: The motivation in this one will be squarely on the ECU side. I just don't see how Florida will have any chance to be motivated in this game, which such a nondescript opponent in a nowheresville location. I also see them struggling to move the ball(as usual), as ECU has a very competent defense. As for the offense, Shane Carden has proven that he can move the ball on just about anyone, and in a demoralizing fashion. I think ECU can beat them outright as the Florida offense can't score, and I still think they'll have trouble covering downfield.
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Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
I use Footballoutsiders.com. Great site.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
Thanks Shark! Sounds like you had a good day!
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
And to you and yours Timmy. Thanks as always for the feedback.
RetroVK
This claim is disputed
I like cfbstats because I can quickly drop all the info into excel.
Really happy to see your thoughts on Iowa as I soured on them a bit since betting. I fear that the vols are one of those teams that benefits from the extra practice.
As for Snyders bowl record I think it is a product of always overachieving and facing teams with a lot more talent than they have and that is certainly the case again here.
Really happy to see your thoughts on Iowa as I soured on them a bit since betting. I fear that the vols are one of those teams that benefits from the extra practice.
As for Snyders bowl record I think it is a product of always overachieving and facing teams with a lot more talent than they have and that is certainly the case again here.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
It's probably my favorite site on the internet. Everything about that site is great. They even added an extra decimal on rushing yards per carry when I asked them to in an email. I need to ask them to add one to ypa passing too.
Great point on Kansas State. The same thing happens to them that typically happens to Big ten teams in the postseason. Conference rep outweighs the talent, and they get overmatched. BTW, every Big ten team was a dog this year and they might go 6-4 SU.
Br@ssknux
Pretty much a regular
Sorry for the long absence. Just a terrible bowl season, a net loser after a pretty good overall campaign this year. You live and learn though.
22. Ohio State +6 v Oregon : I was really contemplating sitting this one out, that's why the post has come out so late. At the end of the day though,I handicap this on paper as being a slight edge to Ohio State, so I've got to take the points here. Also, my only reason for being scared of Ohio State is just a feeling I have with no empirical evidence to back it up. Here's my fear: I'm afraid that Ohio State has already captured their proverbial "white whale". The program and their fan base have desperately wanted to prove to people that they could beat an elite SEC team in SEC country with all the chips on the table. It seems to me that this was their ultimate goal, and they've slayed their dragon. In my opinion, Oregon hasn't. can Ohio State get up for another game against an even better opponent after accomplishing the one thing that they have been wanting to do for the better part of a decade? That seems like a tall order. Even if they lose this one, they'll still have the Sugar Bowl, and I'd suspect OSU fans will still look fondly upon the season as a result. But having said that, who am I to question he motivation of an Urban Meyer underdog and ignore all the edges they have in this game while at the same time having the benefit of 6 points? Plus, even if there is a motivational advantage for Oregon, that doesn't mean that Ohio State is all of a sudden going to get blown out. This will be the best team that Oregon has played, by far, and certainly the best offense. I don't think that there's any doubt that OSU will move the ball on them. The only question is if they will turn the ball over and if they'll stall in the red zone. Ohio State has severe advantages when their offense is on the field as they have the 9th best rush offense against the Oregon's 50th ranked rush defense. They're also ranked 2nd in QB rating while Oregon is 44th in QB rating against. 3rd down conversions are a big edge to the Buckeyes as well. On the other side of the ball, Oregon is the best offense in the country, but OSU is 11th in overall defensive efficiency, and 5th against the pass. I also think that the Buckeyes will have the advantage in the trenches, as Mariota gets sacked (Oregon is 77th in sacks allowed) while the Buckeyes are 15th in the country in getting sacks. So to sum up, on paper, it's looks to me that Ohio State has the edge in a lot more categories than Oregon does, plus I'm getting 6 points, plus I'm backing a coach that always covers and almost always wins outright when dogged. Although i'm completely aware that this Oregon offense oftentimes trumps everything, and I have my reservations on the motivational aspect, I'm taking the points here.
22. Ohio State +6 v Oregon : I was really contemplating sitting this one out, that's why the post has come out so late. At the end of the day though,I handicap this on paper as being a slight edge to Ohio State, so I've got to take the points here. Also, my only reason for being scared of Ohio State is just a feeling I have with no empirical evidence to back it up. Here's my fear: I'm afraid that Ohio State has already captured their proverbial "white whale". The program and their fan base have desperately wanted to prove to people that they could beat an elite SEC team in SEC country with all the chips on the table. It seems to me that this was their ultimate goal, and they've slayed their dragon. In my opinion, Oregon hasn't. can Ohio State get up for another game against an even better opponent after accomplishing the one thing that they have been wanting to do for the better part of a decade? That seems like a tall order. Even if they lose this one, they'll still have the Sugar Bowl, and I'd suspect OSU fans will still look fondly upon the season as a result. But having said that, who am I to question he motivation of an Urban Meyer underdog and ignore all the edges they have in this game while at the same time having the benefit of 6 points? Plus, even if there is a motivational advantage for Oregon, that doesn't mean that Ohio State is all of a sudden going to get blown out. This will be the best team that Oregon has played, by far, and certainly the best offense. I don't think that there's any doubt that OSU will move the ball on them. The only question is if they will turn the ball over and if they'll stall in the red zone. Ohio State has severe advantages when their offense is on the field as they have the 9th best rush offense against the Oregon's 50th ranked rush defense. They're also ranked 2nd in QB rating while Oregon is 44th in QB rating against. 3rd down conversions are a big edge to the Buckeyes as well. On the other side of the ball, Oregon is the best offense in the country, but OSU is 11th in overall defensive efficiency, and 5th against the pass. I also think that the Buckeyes will have the advantage in the trenches, as Mariota gets sacked (Oregon is 77th in sacks allowed) while the Buckeyes are 15th in the country in getting sacks. So to sum up, on paper, it's looks to me that Ohio State has the edge in a lot more categories than Oregon does, plus I'm getting 6 points, plus I'm backing a coach that always covers and almost always wins outright when dogged. Although i'm completely aware that this Oregon offense oftentimes trumps everything, and I have my reservations on the motivational aspect, I'm taking the points here.
Timh
CTG Psychiatrist - Dr. Tim
Good write up as always Brass, always enjoy your reading your thoughts and thanks for the effort. The more I think about this one, I agree on Ohio State. I have already played the over but am a little concerned about it at this point. Listening to Urban I think his biggest concern is pace in this game and being able to keep up with Oregon tempo when they have the ball. The best way to offset that, and ensure his defense doesn't get worn out is to bang the ball on the ground on offense and go on long time consuming drives. I just have a feeling that we see a lot of power football running game out of OSU tonight. BOL
