Bowl write ups and hopefully feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
Every year I try to get the bowls handicapped early, and every year things go nutso around here both with work and family and I can't get things finished until right before these things start to kick off. I'll be posting these as I can get them done...hopefully you'll all have some feedback for these.

Scoreboard:

Utah State -10
San Diego St -3
Rice -2
NC State +2.5
Virginia Tech +3
Duke +7.5
Boston College -2.5
USC -7
West Virginia -1.5
Clemson +4.5
Texas +7 (-120)
LSU -8
Ole Miss +3.5
Mississippi St -6.5
Michigan St +3
Minnesota +4.5
Florida St +8
Ohio St +9
Iowa +3.5
UCLA -1.5
East Carolina +7
Ohio State +6



Most of the games on 12/20 are tossups in my opinion. WMU has been a major positive for me this year, but Air Force is such an unpredictable opponent that I want to stay away from that one. Nevada/ La La is also a tossup. I tried to come up with an opinion on that Camelia Bowl, but the more I dove into capping USA and BG, the more my head started pounding so I stopped.

I originally really wanted to play CSU at +4.5, but now that the line is down to 2.5, I'm laying off. I liked CSU because I thought they would be able to throw at will on Utah, but that is provided they can actually get a pass off. If they di, they'll be ok, but they took a lot of sacks against defenses not close to as aggressive on the line at the Utes, so there's a great chance that Grayson might spend a significant amount of time running for his life. Utah also has great special teams and Whittingham has a great SU and ATS record in bowls. Throw in the dynamic of the McIlwaine leaving and that Utah will probably be jacked for a bowl after a 2 year hiatus, and I'm staying away from this one.

Here's one that I am playing:

1. Utah State -10 v UTEP: Utah State is a significantly better team than UTEP, who is among the worst teams to qualify for a bowl this year. The Aggies have persevered this year despite ending up the season with their 4th string QB (Reggie Cleveland All Star Kent Myers, who actually looked very good in spurts). Utah State played a much tougher schedule than UTEP and fared better than UTEP anyway, outgaining their opponents while UTEP was outgained. Defensively, Utah State will easily be the best defense the Miners have played, and that's not a promising proposition for them because they managed only 360 yards per game against a schedule littered with 4 of the bottom 20 defenses in the country. They themselves weren't much better, ranking 103rd in yards per play against. I think Utah State will completely shut down UTEP's pop gun attack and should have more than enough success against their weak defense to cover 10. Utah State just finished their 3rd consecutive 9 win campaign. They are used to success while UTEP isn't and I think that will be obvious in this one too.


 
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Ya that Camelia bowl is a toughy.

good luck. rare case where i cheer against utah state personally but if they win i hope you cover. But I have to keep my alumni spirit, even if the education I got at UTEP was subpar. look forward to all your bowl thoughts this year amigo
 
clowncar said:
Ya that Camelia bowl is a toughy.

good luck. rare case where i cheer against utah state personally but if they win i hope you cover. But I have to keep my alumni spirit, even if the education I got at UTEP was subpar. look forward to all your bowl thoughts this year amigo
Click to expand...

Likewise Kyle. Thanks. :shake:
 
I originally liked Marshall quite a bit in their Boca Raton Bowl clash, but the more I look at that game, the more I see about a 13 point win for Marshall, and that's just not enough cushion to back a team that's looked shaky in recent weeks. The Thundering Herd has a pretty distinct edge in just about every category, but NIU has been so resilient over the last few years that it's tough to fade them when they are getting DD. I'm staying away from that one.


2. San Diego State -3.5 v Navy: Coach Ken from Navy has to be cursing the fact that he keeps drawing SDSU in these bowl games. For whatever reason, SDSU coach Rocky Long fares extremely well against all of the option teams he faces, Inlcuding Air Force and New Mexico this year. He also figures to have the better of the scrimmaging because his top RB Donnell Pumprey has gained a ton of yards, and the Navy run defense has a penchant for getting run over. The combination of Long's ability to stop the option and the likelihood that SDSU can run effectively has me seeing a bargain at a short spread on SDSU's field. Navy's do everything QB Keenan Reynolds is also banged up with a sprained ankle, though he will play. My guess is he won't be at full strength. Navy relies on the old adage that if a dog out rushes their opponent, they stand a likely chance to cover, but in this case, I think SDSU will out rush them.
 
By the way....sorry I have been out of commission lately....sick kids, sick me and lots of work issues. Off for the holidays now, so I'm hoping to be more active here and in other threads.
 
Sort of see NIU competing.

Agree on SDSU, just a hard offense to lay with in a game that will be run run run no matter who has the ball. There is a strong connection between the Navy and the city of San Diego. so I couldn't even give aztecs a normal hfa as there will be navy folks at that game as well (already sold out the navy allotment ). Hard to go wrong with Rocky vs the option though. Good luck... I like it overall.
 
Quick thought on the Bahamas bowl:

Interesting angle here as Western Kentucky and Central Michigan have a rematch of their bowl game two years ago which represents the last bowl game for both, a 24-21 win for CMU in a game that WKU was a 6 point favorite. WKU has played much better as the season has gone along, and CMU has some definite major blemishes on their record, including a 40-3 blowout loss at home to Syracuse. CMU didn;t have Titus Davis or Thomas Rawls in that game however, and their offense is a completely different story when those two are healthy, especially Davis, who has a nice repartee with QB Cooper Rush. It looks like they won't have RB Rawls. which hurts. WKU's offense has been fantastic, but their defense is among the worst in the country. I'd actually say that there's more of a mismatch in the CMU offense/WKU defense matchup than vice versa(CMU #26 pass efficiency O v WKU #118 Pass eff D) because the Chips defense has had some nice performances. If Rawls was going to play I would definitely like the Chips but I'll probably just throw a half unit on them in this one. Not a major recommendation though.
 
3. Rice -2 v Fresno State: Fresno is a bit of an unpredictable team, having put together some nice wins, including winning at Nevada and handling decent teams like New Mexico and San Jose State on the road as well. They've also got a bunch of clunkers in there too, including a blowout loss at home to Wyoming. For the most part however, Fresno has been very pedestrian on both sides of the ball, ranking in the 90's-100's both on offense and defense in yards per play. Rice has also been weak defensively, but they can move the ball on offense, and I think the biggest mismatch in this game will be the Rice passing attack against the Fresno pass defense. (Rice #23 v Fresno #111). It's true that Rice also struggles on defense, but I don't think Fresno has the firepower in the passing game to do as much damage as Rice can do to them with QB Driphus Jackson. We also have to consider that David Bailiff has fared much better than Fresno coach Tim DeRuyter in bowl action. Bailiff is 2-1 ATS and SU in bowls while DeRuyter is 0-2 SU and ATS, and in both cases didn't even come close to competing for a spread victory, losing by 25 to USC last year as a 6 point dog and getting his doors blown off 43-10 by SMU as a 13 point favorite (!!). With that pedigree and the mismatch against the Rice passing game, I'm going to ride the Owls here.
 
I'm staying away from the Heart of Dallas bowl between the Illini and Louisiana Tech. Although I think Illinois is going to lose due to the virtual certainty that Tim Beckman is destined to be a bowl underachiever,Skip Holtz doesn't elicit visions of X/O wizardry either, and LT doesn't necessarily have the offense to run away from anyone.


I also lean toward Rutgers in the QuickLane Bow in Detroit, but can't quite recommend them because I don't trust their defense to be able to stop the UNC offense. Rutgers for whatever reason typically lights it up against also ran type defenses, and UNC is even worse than also ran...they are legitimately awful. I'd be very surprised if Rutgers has any difficulty moving the ball on the Tar Heels, but there's no doubt that UNC will move it vigorously on them as well. The over is probably a better play, though. If the line was more than a FG I might pull the trigger, but I'm scared of the Rutgers defense, even though they've done ok against non elite style defenses. The white-hot VK being on the other side heavy on this one didn't help my comfort level with this side either.


4. NC State +2.5 v UCF: Not much of a buy opportunity here as most books have +2.5 at (-115), so I played it at 2.5. UCF has a very tough defense on paper, but they've scraped up those numbers against the 107th ranked schedule in the country, and their offensive numbers against those terrible teams have been anemic, ranking 105th in total yards per play and 120th in rushing ypc. Now they face a Wolfpack team under Dave Doeren who seems to have turned things around...they bum-rushed North Caolina to the tune of a 35-7 win game and hung in quite well against some very good defensive teams. I think UCF will have a hard time being effective on offense, and I think their defense will be seeing talent that they haven't seen much of in previous games this year. Remember that they gave up 511 yards to Penn State in the opener (with 454 passing yards by Hackenberg(!!!)) and then surrendered 38 points at Missouri. I think NC State is on par or better than those teams offensively. In short, I think schedule discrepancy will play a role in this one, and NC State also has a sizable ST edge.
 
I have to say health on NCST, as I really like UCF in that one. Think over may be best bet in NC/Rutg. Happy Holidays Brass.
 
As for the Saturday games, I'm taking a pass on the Independence Bowl between South Carolina and Miami. Miami has the overwhelming edge on paper, especially when their offense is on the field. Miami ranks 17th in offensive efficiency, while South Carolina is 124th on defense(!!). Miami should have a field day on offense, and their defense is much more competitive than the Gamecocks. However, since Al Golden has been the coach, Miami is yet to show up in a bowl game, failing miserably ATS in both the bowls they've played in. Miami also consistently seeks out new ways to turn the ball over commits crushing penalties and employs awful special teams. After looking at the on-paper matchups, I'd never dream of passing up laying a small number with such a statistical mismatch, but the intangibles are so bad for Miami that I'm doing exactly that.


5. Virginia Tech +3 v Cincinnati: I was really hoping that a solid offensive squad would be matched up with this horrid Cincinnati defense, but the Hokies will have to do. The fact that Frank Beamer will be coaching from the press box is probably a good thing because he's morphing (or has morphed into) a coaching liability for the Hokies. In this case however, I think there's value with VT. Cincinnati is actually 9-3 this year, but the only decent team they've beaten is East Carolina, and in that game they gave up 48 points. They can't cover anyone and they rank 94th against the run as well. VT is obviously not an offensive juggernaut, but they have played a very tough schedule of defenses and just put up 420+ yards in their last game against Virginia, a vastly superior defense to Cincy. Defensively the Hokies are ranked 2nd in overall defensive efficiency, and I think Michael Brewer and Willie Byrn can get some things going in the passing game. Major
difference in schedules here, and I don't think VT will be overwhlemed by Gunnar Kiel and company. As long as VT doesn't turn it over incessantly. they should be able to score, as Cincy might have the weakest defense they've played all year other than North Carolina.
 
6. Duke +7.5 v Arizona State: After Arizona State laid an egg last year, we might think that they'd be due for another dominant bowl performance, as Todd Graham's teams have a pedigree for blowing out unsuspecting weaklings. At first glance, I was looking for reasons to back the Sun Devils here, but I really could only find reasons for the opposite side. From an effiiciency standpoint, these two teams are very evenly matched with Duke's defense having a pretty solid year while playing some high powered offenses. ASU I think might be a little disappointed to be playing tin this one after they were 1 game away from playing in the PAC 12 title game with an outside shot at the final 4. Duke also sports the top special teams unit in the country and a very savvy coach in David Cutcliffe. Their forte is pass defense, and believe it or not they can get some pressure on the QB(#49 in sacks) while ASU is 119th in sacks allowed. ASU's defense also has a penchant
for allowing big plays and I think Cutcliffe will have a solid game plan in this one. Although I can see why ASU is favored, I like my chances getting more than a TD here.
 
7. Boston College -2.5 v Penn State: Both defenses will have major advantages in this one, but I think BC's offense is far superior to Penn State's and the ability of Tyler Murphy to run effectively sets the Eagles apart in this one. Christian Hackenberg is simply a terrible quarterback....anyone who has watched him play this year would need to have theeir head examined to even consider entrusting their money to him against any competent defense, which BC is. (31st in total defense, 9th against the run). Hell, they even sucked against incompetent defenses (Illinois, Indiana). BC also has a major edge in special teams and Penn State constantly found itself in terrible field position all year.
 
8. USC -7 v Nebraska: I hate to be on this side, because it seems like 90% of the public is on USC, but I really don't see how Nebraska competes in this game. On paper, Nebraska matches up pretty well, but they spent most of the year beating the lower echelon of the Big Ten while USC played the 6th best schedule in the country. The only legitimately good teams on Nebraska's schedule were Michigan State and Wisconsin and Nebraska failed to compete in large stretches in both games. Also, the team is in a fragile state with an interim staff as interim coaches with no hope of being retained typically spend the preparation time looking for jobs rather than focusing on the game plan. USC is in a comfy spot in San Diego and actually hasn't played there in a long time, so they'll be excited. They are a solid team on a roll, and we've all seen this USC vs Big Ten narrative before. I'm not saying anything different than the vast masses, but USC rolls here.
 
9. West Virginia -1.5 v Texas A&M: The big news coming out of this game is that WV QB Clint Trickett surprisingly announced his retirement from football after suffering something like his 14th concussion a few weeks ago. The line dropped from WV -3.5 all the way down to a pick em and has now settled in at WV -1.5. True Sophomore Skyler Howard will get the start in his place, but I don't think Trckett's absence will change the dynamic of this game very much. Howard has played in 3 games, including the finale against Iowa State and the majority of the 'Eers game with Kansas State, and he has done just fine, actually possessing a higher passer rating than Trickett and sporting a line of 36/65 483 5/0. If you have an issues with Howard playing in this game, than you also have to remember that Kyle Allen is making only his 4th career start for A&M and he's a true freshman. The difference in this game is going to be the defenses...West Virginia has improved all year and actually ranks 24th in passer rating against, which matches up well with A&M's good pass/bad run offense. A&M's defense is a complete abomination...they can't stop anyone and they are among the worst tackling teams in the country. WV has a collection of scatbacks that relish the opportunity to make people miss and break tackles, making this an almost ideal matchup for the WV offense. If WR Kevin White ends up with less than 150 receiving yards I will be stunned. I think WV is the better team here..as long as they don't have a turnover party, they should win this game.


10. Clemson +4.5 v Oklahoma: The major problem here is that Clint Stoudt is back in the lineup after an ACL injury to DeShaun Watson. Stoudt has been brutal in most cases, but has had flashes of competence here and there. The positive here however, is the Clemson defense. In my opinion, they are capable of winning a game with almost no help from the offense. They are ranked 2nd in the country in yards per play, 1st in schedule adjusted defensive efficiency, 3rd in rushing yards per carry and 4th in sacks and 8th in passer rating against. I also like that Clemson has gutted out a couple of huge bowl wins against name programs in the past couple years (Ohio State and LSU) and the public is ALL OVER the Sooners. As bad as Stoudt is, Trevor Knight or whoever lines up under center for the Sooners is just as likely to have a disastrous day as Stoudt is going up against that Clemson defense. I also have a hunch that the emotional edge will be with the Tigers as well, as they are the underdog, and Oklahoma is the kind of name opponent that gets the juices flowing. Oklahoma is coming off a brutally disappointing loss at home in the bedlam game to a bad Oklahoma State team. They might be just looking to play out the string after having much bigger dreams this year.


11. Texas +7 v Arkansas: In my opinion, this is a 50/50 game that is likely to come down to a late FG. Either of these teams getting a significant amount of points is an auto play. Both of these teams have played a killer schedule, and both have developed very good defenses. Arkansas probably has a a better offense, but their defense has not been anywhere as good away from home as they have been in Fayetteville, while the Texas defense has been consistent all year. Arkansas's forte has been running the ball, but they will have a hard time doing that against Texas, and the Horns have been one of the best pass defenses in the country all year, ranking 12 in passer rating against and 9th in the country in sacks. Arkansas on the other hand is ranked 80th against the pass and puts very little pressure on the QB, ranking 106th in sacks. Tyrone Swoopes might have a little breathing room to get something going through the air, and he's developed a chemistry with WR John Harris. To sum up, I give Texas every bit as much a chance to get the outright as I do Arkansas, so I'll certainly take the 7 with a really good defensive squad.
 
RE: Saturday's games....A great day was shaping up until BC shit the bed and blew chances to win both in regulation and in OT when they had Penn State at 3rd and 15 up by 6. Also, I hereby refuse to wager on any more USC games. Since Carroll left town, it's impossible to predict if they are going to give 2 shits about playing, and you never can tell what kind of effort level they're going to give. I actually leaned to Nebraska on paper but felt that the interim coach would have no shot. Public takes a beating again.
 
Heck of a call on NCST. I think your write up was spot on the level of competition faced by UCF. I was impressed with NCST offensive line, especially in 3rd qtr. I am going against WV today but agree on Texas and like the under there. I am undecided on Ok/Clem gm at this point. GL
 
twinkie13 said:
great start as expected Br@ss

how great is Monday's slate?
Click to expand...

I think the whole bowl schedule is and has been awesome. The Advocare Texas Bowl gets Arky/Texas? Liberty and Independence among others have never sniffed matchups as good as these this year. Those bowl chairmen must have died and gone to heaven.
 
Timh said:
Heck of a call on NCST. I think your write up was spot on the level of competition faced by UCF. I was impressed with NCST offensive line, especially in 3rd qtr. I am going against WV today but agree on Texas and like the under there. I am undecided on Ok/Clem gm at this point. GL
Click to expand...

When did A&M get a competent defense? I didn't get to watch but heard the 2nd half on the radio. Don't think I've heard the word "incomplete" that much in my life. Thanks for the kind words Timmy.
 
Timh said:
Heck of a call on NCST. I think your write up was spot on the level of competition faced by UCF. I was impressed with NCST offensive line, especially in 3rd qtr. I am going against WV today but agree on Texas and like the under there. I am undecided on Ok/Clem gm at this point. GL
Click to expand...

clowncar said:
You seem to have a good feel for the ACC .. keep it up
Click to expand...

So far I guess. LOL. Thanks Kyle.
 
12. LSU -8 v Notre Dame: Brian Kelly recently announced that Malik Zaire will be starting in place of Everett Gholson. It's understandable why a change is necessary, given the recent performance of Gholson, but I don't think this LSU defense is a good matchup for a kid making his first start. Typically, if i trusted the coach, I would figure that the coach might have something up his sleeve, but with a 1-5 ATS bowl record, anything that Brian Kelly thinks he has "up his sleeve" is probably going to turn to shit. 8 weeks ago, Notre Dame thought they had a shot at playing in the final 4, and instead they come into the bowl season on a 4 game losing streak(and a 5 game ATS skid) with losses to the likes of Northwestern and a couple of blowout losses to legit PAC 12 squads. This is probably a team that just wants to get the season over with. On the other hand, LSU is not great offensively, but SEC teams always relish the chance to slap around name Midwest teams and Notre Dame almost always elicits a top effort from their opponents. Public likely on the right side here.
 
I'm going to take a pass on the other two today. I lean Georgia due to Petrino's weak bowl record(though I think he's a great coach), and I'm not sure I trust the numbers on Louisville against a legit offense like Georgia. Just a few too many points fr me though.

As for the late nighter, Maryland won't be able to score on Stanford, but I hesitate to lay that much unless there's a really big offensive mismatch for the favorite. The mismatch is on the defensive side, but without Montgomery, I'm not sure Stanford can pile up enough points to avoid a backdoor.
 
Br@ssknux said:
I'm going to take a pass on the other two today. I lean Georgia due to Petrino's weak bowl record(though I think he's a great coach), and I'm not sure I trust the numbers on Louisville against a legit offense like Georgia. Just a few too many points fr me though.

As for the late nighter, Maryland won't be able to score on Stanford, but I hesitate to lay that much unless there's a really big offensive mismatch for the favorite. The mismatch is on the defensive side, but without Montgomery, I'm not sure Stanford can pile up enough points to avoid a backdoor.
Click to expand...



maybe this will help.
LOUISVILLE... is 4-1 SUATS L5 as bowlers... 3rd bestrush defense (94 RYPG) in the nation... Petrino: 31-3SU and 23-11 ATS off a SU win vs opp off SU loss.

I think louisville is a great bet with the points and the ML as well

 
I agree on LSU but decided on under as a better alternative once that line went above a TD. GL Brass.
 
Br@ssknux said:
When did A&M get a competent defense? I didn't get to watch but heard the 2nd half on the radio. Don't think I've heard the word "incomplete" that much in my life. Thanks for the kind words Timmy.
Click to expand...


I was was completely fooled by the Skyler Howard hype. Texas. AM run defense was better than I expected but Howard was terrible throwing the ball missing several wide open guys.

I should have have expected it when he threw up the money Manziel celebration after a screen pass
 
Dollaz said:
I was was completely fooled by the Skyler Howard hype. Texas. AM run defense was better than I expected but Howard was terrible throwing the ball missing several wide open guys.

I should have have expected it when he threw up the money Manziel celebration after a screen pass
Click to expand...
I bet 2h over sight unseen, as I was just going on the score and the fact that I thought both defenses were getting lit up through the air. I did watch the 2h and regretted my over bet, Howard was I agree in a word terrible. Lot of throws not even close and after A&M kicked a couple of FG's I figured I was in trouble with 2h over.
 
The Capping Genius said:
maybe this will help.
LOUISVILLE... is 4-1 SUATS L5 as bowlers... 3rd bestrush defense (94 RYPG) in the nation... Petrino: 31-3SU and 23-11 ATS off a SU win vs opp off SU loss.

I think louisville is a great bet with the points and the ML as well
Click to expand...

Petrino 2-5 ATS in bowls though....Having said that, I don't like fading BP. QB health for Louisville also worries me.
 
Laying off the Fiesta Bowl even though I see a major edge for the Boise offense, especially the passing game of Boise, over Arizona. However, the Broncos have had major problems stopping tricky rush offenses, and the two schedules of these teams are not close to comparable. If I had a couple more points, I'd be on Boise...3 is just not quite enough, even though I think they have a pretty good shot of winning that game.


13. Ole Miss +3.5 v TCU: TCU holds the edge in raw numbers, but once adjusted for opponents, the numbers tell a different story. These two teams are very evenly matched, and a lot of people feel that Ole Miss is the deeper and more complete team. TCU is still reeling from the disappointment of not playing in the final 4, but at least they still get to lock horns with an SEC squad. The major difference between these two teams is the schedule, as Ole Miss has a schedule strength of 14 while TCU is in the mid 50's. TCU has been very solid on both sides of the ball, but I again have to point out that they have been a different team on the road, having surrendered 800 yards to Baylor, lucking into a victory at West Virginia, and barely squeaking by a terrible Kansas squad. If this bowl season has taught us anything it's that there is no way a Big 12 team should be favored over a legit SEC West squad. Also remember that TCU is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 bowl games and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games. Patterson is also 5-9 ATS overall in bowls, whiel Hugh Freeze has covered both of his bowls in his short career.


14. Mississippi State -6.5 v Georgia Tech: I think this will be the game that Georgia Tech's pedestrian defense catches up to them finally. Miss State has the fast athletic defense to slow down the Ramblin Wreck, but I don't think GT will be able to stop the ground game of Josh Robinson and Dak Prescott. (Ranked 98th in FBS). Since he's been at Tech, the great Paul Johnson is surprisingly 1-5 ATS in bowls. I think that has a lot to do with teams having time to prepare for his offense, and Mullen's staff knows what they're doing. major edge for the Bulldogs in the passing game as well. Mississippi State should be able to move the ball effectively both on the ground and through the air. The much better defense resides on the Miss St side of things and it's never a bad thing to be on the SEC in bowl season.
 
Howard was awful but their oline got manhandled at the line of scrimmage, texas oline got manhandled, oklahomas oline got manhandled at the line of scrimmage, .... how scary to have big12 and big10 teams....
 
clowncar said:
Howard was awful but their oline got manhandled at the line of scrimmage, texas oline got manhandled, oklahomas oline got manhandled at the line of scrimmage, .... how scary to have big12 and big10 teams....
Click to expand...

Still trying to figure out how that happened, re: WV. A&M's defense was a creampuff all year. I know WV's OL was not great (67th in rushing ypc and 87th in sacks allowed) but I thought they'd be able to handle A&M's front, who couldn't stop the run at all the entire year.
 
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