Bowl Season Write Ups and Hopefully Feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
Sorry for the late start, I've been stuck traveling on the West coast the past 2 weeks, so I haven't been able to formulate anything, but I don't even know if I want to bother this year. Now that COVID is becoming an inevitable issue again, we won't know who's playing until the day of the game., Trying to keep up with these prima donnas who are constantly transferring and the marginally decent players who are opting out for clearly "look at me" status reasons is impossible. Part of me doesn't even want to bother.

BUT...I'm a degenerate, so here goes. The ones for today will be coming throughout the day. This first one is abridged due to the fact it kicks off in less than an hour.

WKU +3 WIN
EMU +9.5 LOSS
Utah State +7 WIN
Marshall +4.5 LOSS
UCF +7 WIN
Auburn -2/+2 LOSS
Minnesota -5 WIN
Clemson -2.5 WIN
Tennessee -6 LOSS
Pitt +3 LOSS
Alabama -13.5 WIN
Michigan +8 LOSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS
Oklahoma State +2 WIN
Utah +4 WIN
Alabama +3

8-6 (with Title game pending)

WKU +3(-118) v Appalachian State: Appy State has been good defensively, but I don't know that any grpup of 5 defenses have the ability to slow down Bailey Zappe, who, God Bless Him, is actually showing up and playing today despite the fact he has an outside chance of being an NFL player someday. Also, any chance I can jump on to fade Chase Brice, I'm going to do it. WKU gave up a ton of points in their last two games but they were not terrible on defense this year, so I think they'll have the ability to get some stops, enough to let Zappe put enough points on the board to win this one. And if they don't, we might still grab a back door.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
Sorry for the late start, I've been stuck traveling on the West coast the past 2 weeks, so I haven't been able to formulate anything, but I don't even know if I want to bother this year. Mow that COVID is becoming an inevitable issue again, we won't know who's playing until the day of the game., Trying to keep up with these prima donnas who are constantly transferring and the marginally decent players who are opting out for clearly "look at me" status reasons is impossible. Part of me doesn't even want to bother.

BUT...I'm a degenerate, so here goes. The ones for today will be coming throughout the day. This first one is abridged due to the fact it kicks off in less than an hour.

WKU +3(-118) v Appalachian State: Appy State has been good defensively, but I don't know that any grpup of 5 defenses have the ability to slow down Bailey Zappe, who, God Bless Him, is actually showing up and playing today despite the fact he has an outside chance of being an NFL player someday. Also, any chance I can jump on to fade Chase Brice, I'm going to do it. WKU gave up a ton of points in their last two games but they were not terrible on defense this year, so I think they'll have the ability to get some stops, enough to let Zappe put enough points on the board to win this one. And if they don't, we might still grab a back door.
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Gun to head, this is my side as well.

Looking for some total opportunities live.
 
on wku also, glad to see they got off to a fast start, that been their problem last few games. now we see if app st can hang in the kind of shootout they in for!
 
B.A.R. said:
69.5 took right after the interception (hunt can verify)
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nice,, i didnt see the int.. i woke up to finding out youtube tv dropped all of espn, i was thinking having espn+ would mean i could still watch but i was wrong so had to figure out a new stream service, got a free trial to something else now. youtubetv can fucking blow me.
 
2. Eastern Michigan +9.5 v Liberty: Give credit to Malik Willis for going through the indignity of actually suiting up among the great unwashed and actually playing in a bowl game. He's among the top 4 or 5 QB prospects in the upcoming draft, but he's still gonna be out there with his teammates. That's great, but he was out there in October when the Flames lost as a 34 point favorite to La-Mo, throwing for 135 yards on 128 attempts and getting sacked 4 times against what was then the 130th ranked defense in virtually every category. That game was when the wheels pretty much fell off for Liberty. From the start of that game, in games NOT against UMass they went 1-4 and Willis was sacked more than 6 times per game. Liberty has lost outright as a favorite 4 times this year, and they are facing an EMU tram who under Chris Creighton is 30-9 ATS as a dog and has covered their last 3. If you look at this game on paper, Liberty has the edge in most areas, but as we mentioned, they had 10 times the advantages in those areas against ULM and we saw what happened there. Liberty is also a team that turns the ball over like crazy(116th in giveaways) and EMU has a major edge in the turnover game. Given the start of the bowl season so far, I certainly am not in a hurry to lay major points with anyone, let alone a team prone to losing outright as a dog who struggles with turnovers and is facing a team very comfortable in the dog role.
 
3. Utah State +7 v Oregon State: I have been a huge fan of the Beavers all year, but that is when they are either at home or as a road dog...not as a significant favorite away from home. I know this is a neutral site in their conference footprint, but when they've been favored away from home it has not been pretty. In this case, I expect the Beavers to run without much problem against the Aggies with Baylor and Fenwick or whoever else they hand it to, but if they have to throw the smoke has pretty much drifted off of Chance Nolan's fastball in recent games. In order to cover this, the Beavs are going to need to score because their defense is not good, and Utah State has been effective all year on the offensive side of the ball. Also you can make a case that the Utah State coaching staff knows what they're doing because although they give up a lot of yards, they are great on 3rd down on both sides of the ball, which will go a long way toward allowing them to stay in this game, especially on offense as they are 12t on 3rd down while the Beavers rank 126th in 3rd down defense. On the other side of the ball, the Beavers are 8th on 3rd down due to their running game, but Utah State is no pushover at 18th. If the Beavs come out and overcome their issues as a favorite and shove the Aggies in a locker, I'll tip my cap, but 7 seems to be a lot here for a team likely to have trouble getting off the foeld against a resourceful team.
 
we on same page again with utah st (i like that! lol).. not so sure bout emu but im just betting willis rush prop and team total over, im not sure emu defense is capable of exploiting Liberty horrid pass protection, i dont think willis decided to play this game to stink it up vs a total shit MAC defense, i kinda expect them to put on a show as emu a big step down from the teams they been facing down the stretch.. anyways i can cash my props and you can still cash emu with the points!! gl
 
4. Marshall +4.5 (-114) v Louisiana Lafayette: This looks like a pretty tough spot for LaLa to me. Their first game without Billy Napier and a good portion of his staff, and they are favored against a pretty solid squad like Marshall, a team that usually finds itself favored. Marshall has played as a dog away from home only 3 times in the past 3 years and they are 3-0 ATS in those games. On paper, these two teams look to be very evenly matched and if you took away the turnover tendencies of both, I'd give the edge statistically to Marshall. LaLa also looks to be the one much more affected by these stupid opt outs as they appear to have a couple of their better players sitting out this game for whatever reason. In most advanced metrics, these teams rank very close to each other (FEI, F+, etc). I'll take the points along with the team that seems to be much closer to full strength and without the uncertainty of losing a beloved coach. (BetRivers dropped their juice down to -104, so it gave me some room to grab that extra 1/2 point)
 
I think that NT "Big Sauce" Humphrey opt out for ULL could be pretty big. Fans are arguing if he opted out or if it is injury related. Doesn't matter for us.
 
Br@ssknux said:
4. Marshall +4.5 (-114) v Louisiana Lafayette: This looks like a pretty tough spot for LaLa to me. Their first game without Billy Napier and a good portion of his staff, and they are favored against a pretty solid squad like Marshall, a team that usually finds itself favored. Marshall has played as a dog away from home only 3 times in the past 3 years and they are 3-0 ATS in those games. On paper, these two teams look to be very evenly matched and if you took away the turnover tendencies of both, I'd give the edge statistically to Marshall. LaLa also looks to be the one much more affected by these stupid opt outs as they appear to have a couple of their better players sitting out this game for whatever reason. In most advanced metrics, these teams rank very close to each other (FEI, F+, etc). I'll take the points along with the team that seems to be much closer to full strength and without the uncertainty of losing a beloved coach. (BetRivers dropped their juice down to -104, so it gave me some room to grab that extra 1/2 point)
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I lean your way but I played under instead of side.
 
Honestly, I really don't have an opinion on the games today. We have no earthly idea who is playing for either UTSA or SDSU, and the Wyoming/Kent game is a mystery to me. MIght have something later this week.
 
Taking a pass on the Army/MIzzou game.

I originally was looking for any reason to bet on Army, but now that there's been more than 3 points of value lost on it, I can't play that side, and I can't really justify a case for the dog when the QB they plan to start only averages 4.3 yards per attempt.

Mizzou's run defense has been atrocious most of the year, but they've actually improved the past few weeks, holding Florida(a tricky, read option run based attack) to 93 yards on 38 carries three weeks ago and South Carolina to 1.9 ypc the week before that. The Tigers also looked to be playing with good effort all the way to the end, and Coach Drinkwitz doesn't seem like the type to have a team with a weak culture. If Mizzou grabs some points early, it'll be a long day of gnashing of teeth for anyone trying to coax a cover out of the favorite.
 
Br@ssknux said:
Taking a pass on the Army/MIzzou game.

I originally was looking for any reason to bet on Army, but now that there's been more than 3 points of value lost on it, I can't play that side, and I can't really justify a case for the dog when the QB they plan to start only averages 4.3 yards per attempt.

Mizzou's run defense has been atrocious most of the year, but they've actually improved the past few weeks, holding Florida(a tricky, read option run based attack) to 93 yards on 38 carries three weeks ago and South Carolina to 1.9 ypc the week before that. The Tigers also looked to be playing with good effort all the way to the end, and Coach Drinkwitz doesn't seem like the type to have a team with a weak culture. If Mizzou grabs some points early, it'll be a long day of gnashing of teeth for anyone trying to coax a cover out of the favorite.
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The Under 56 or better is the best play of the game. Mizzou without Badie and probably will be QB by committee trying to work on next year's players....Army will do what they do, but if they don't hit big plays the clock will be rolling along swiftly.
 
Rusty Trombone said:
The Under 56 or better is the best play of the game. Mizzou without Badie and probably will be QB by committee trying to work on next year's players....Army will do what they do, but if they don't hit big plays the clock will be rolling along swiftly.
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Don't disagree with that, but as I've mentioned, I lose totals. That's just what I do. So I will not play it in the hopes the rest of you will be able to cash that ticket.
 
5. UCF +7 v Florida: Florida seems ridiculously fragile for this game. There's no telling if anyone playing in this game has much motivation, and one would assume that is the exact opposite on the other side of the field, as UCF is likely relishing the chance to take at the Gators, and I'm sure that they don't care who it is wearing the Florida uniforms. Raymond James stadium is sold out for this game, which I found surprising. Based on the situation facing these teams, one can only assume that UCF is probably the side that's driving those sales, so we can expect a pro UCF crowd. Florida is missing key guys on both sides of the ball, and this is from a team that didn't accomplish much other than playing Alabama tough early in the year. The only bowl team they beat was Tennessee, and that came ages ago at the very beginning of the year. In the past 6, they won only one game against FBS competition, and their other games included a blowout loss to South Carolina, a loss to Missouri and the infamous game in which they gave up 42 first half points to Samford. QB Emory Jones is transferring, but somehow is still playing in this game...so a guy that clearly doesn't want to be a part of the program is going to play QB for them. It turns out that this is vital for Florida because Anthony Roberson just had surgery and can't play, so if Jones gets hurt or loses interest, Florida will be down to a 3rd stringer. The situation Florida is in reminds me of last year when virtually every decent player they had opted out and then Kyle Trask forgot how to play football. They got hamulated in that game, and in this one they have to cover 7 against an in state underling that is likely to give their best effort in front of a sold out crowd. On paper, this isn't close to a mismatch either, even if they missing Gators were suiting up. Definitely like the dog here.
 
UCF seems like a good dog and spot for them (and bad for FL for all obvious reasons). I'm not crazy about the UCF QB or their overall potential on O so Rusty's pick of the Under in a lower scoring game also makes sense.
 
Rusty Trombone said:
Really liking UCF tomorrow as well. Will be on them +7.5, ML and U56.5 .....UCF picks Emory off 2 times and wins 27-17
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Agree again on the under, but like yesterday, I will not be playing it so that there is a chance you win that bet. I am 100% dead serious in my belief that my staying away from the Army/Mizzou under had a profound effect on it coming in. My track record on totals is so bad, it has become cosmic. :)
 
score is 26-17 heading into the 4th... I'm not wagering at the moment but you fellas were on point with this game.
 
Br@ssknux said:
Agree again on the under, but like yesterday, I will not be playing it so that there is a chance you win that bet. I am 100% dead serious in my belief that my staying away from the Army/Mizzou under had a profound effect on it coming in. My track record on totals is so bad, it has become cosmic. :)
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Lol. Good call on UCF
 
6. Auburn -2 (also +2) v Houston: I usually put a fair amount of emphasis on overall record in bowl games, but not here. Houston comes in at 11-2, but their strength of schedule this year was among the worst of all bowl teams. That's helped them compile some pretty impressive team stats, and if you went strictly by those numbers, you'd probably be sprinting to the window to throw some cash at the Cougars. Before you do that, though, let me go through just how weak Houston's schedule was. The only above average defense Houston played was not until their post season game against Cincinnati, and Houston was only marginally competitive in that game. During their regular season schedule, the best defense the played on a yards per play basis was Memphis. The rest of their schedule looked like this as far as Yards per play ranks: 58, 69, 89, 92,99, 100, 102, 118 and 122. Against that schedule they managed to rank 58th in yards per play, 88th in yards per rush and ranked 97th in sack rate, effectively allowing the underwhelming Clayton Tune to be at the mercy of some weak defensive lines. Defensively, they looked great on paper, but the opposing offenses were even worse than the defenses. They played 4 good offenses: SMU, Texas Tech, Cincinnati and Memphis, and they gave up 35+ to 3 of them. Auburn ended up at just 6-6, but they've obviously beaten or played the likes of Arkansas, Ole Miss and Penn State to a standstill, and let's not forget that they had Alabama beaten their last time out. Ultimately, in my opinion, Houston doesn't fit the profile of a team that can beat a legit SEC squad, as Holgerson and Clayton Tune don't have the chops to ignite any kind of inspired effort. Auburn has some guys sitting out, but they have plenty of SEC athletes playing. I think they'll take care of business here.
 
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A few thoughts about Air Force and Louisville.

I am not playing this one even though I am extremely tempted to lay the short number with Air Force. There's always a siren song calling me to back the service academies in bowls, especially when Air Force looks to have such a major edge in their ability to run all over the Cards, but there's a couple things keeping me off this. First, this looks like a significant recency bias trap. The last time we saw Louisville, they were getting steamrolled by the running attack of Kentucky, and we all can see Air Force doing more of the same. However, Louisville definitely is aware of how bad they looked and will likely give a great effort defensively. IN addition, Malik Cunningham is a complete nightmare to play against, and Louisville is bringing the 5th ranked offense in the country in terms of yards per play. If Air Force struggles to stop Cunningham, they'll need to score almost every time they have the ball, and they better not turn it over. Just about everyone I follow is all over Air Force, and gun to head I'd be on that side too...I'm just too afraid of Cunningham and that offense to pull the trigger.
 
I love ville but waiting to see bout Cunningham props also. I really don’t think AF gonna be all that tough for them to stop and agree completely with you that Cunningham is gonna shred af as he a next level athlete they have nothing like on their roster.
 
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Agree w you on auburn, been debating them or under, I’m pretty confident they can slow houston down but I’m not real sure what auburn gonna score? You would think all the extra practices would be huge for Finley but tough to say how he will look and houston d is pretty decent even if they did play a really weak schedule,. Do you know if tank bigsby playing? I thought he was but just read in another thread he was in transfer portal?
 
2daBank said:
Agree w you on auburn, been debating them or under, I’m pretty confident they can slow houston down but I’m not real sure what auburn gonna score? You would think all the extra practices would be huge for Finley but tough to say how he will look and houston d is pretty decent even if they did play a really weak schedule,. Do you know if tank bigsby playing? I thought he was but just read in another thread he was in transfer portal?
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Pretty sure Rank opted out, but Hunter us fully capable if picking up the slack.
 
booksbestfriend said:
Pretty sure Rank opted out, but Hunter us fully capable if picking up the slack.
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I actually would like under more I think if tank played since he more the bruiser. Not too worried bout which rb runs for them far as liking aub side, figure they have a stable of capable guys! On the level of of houston 1 good 1 in mckaskill, that often the difference between the real good group of 5s and middling sec, the front line players comparable but the power 5 is 2-3 deep w studs.

DK has a rush total for bigsby but wouldn’t be the 1st time these lames have posted a number for a kid who not playing this bowl season, they been incredibly lazy w bowl props, if he out it will come down sometime this morning, lol. Kinda thinking bout playing Finley ov pass yards but requires a lot of faith he has improved with these practices! Lol.
 
Br@ssknux said:
6. Auburn -2 v Houston: I usually put a fair amount of emphasis on overall record in bowl games, but not here. Houston comes in at 11-2, but their strength of schedule this year was among the worst of all bowl teams. That's helped them compile some pretty impressive team stats, and if you went strictly by those numbers, you'd probably be sprinting to the window to throw some cash at the Cougars. Before you do that, though, let me go through just how weak Houston's schedule was. The only above average defense Houston played was not until their post season game against Cincinnati, and Houston was only marginally competitive in that game. During their regular season schedule, the best defense the played on a yards per play basis was Memphis. The rest of their schedule looked like this as far as Yards per play ranks: 58, 69, 89, 92,99, 100, 102, 118 and 122. Against that schedule they managed to rank 58th in yards per play, 88th in yards per rush and ranked 97th in sack rate, effectively allowing the underwhelming Clayton Tune to be at the mercy of some weak defensive lines. Defensively, they looked great on paper, but the opposing offenses were even worse than the defenses. They played 4 good offenses: SMU, Texas Tech, Cincinnati and Memphis, and they gave up 35+ to 3 of them. Auburn ended up at just 6-6, but they've obviously beaten or played the likes of Arkansas, Ole Miss and Penn State to a standstill, and let's not forget that they had Alabama beaten their last time out. Ultimately, in my opinion, Houston doesn't fit the profile of a team that can beat a legit SEC squad, as Holgerson and Clayton Tune don't have the chops to ignite any kind of inspired effort. Auburn has some guys sitting out, but they have plenty of SEC athletes playing. I think they'll take care of business here.
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Great info. Thx!
 
Auburn is now +2, so I obviously added another unit at that number. Best I can tell this is just late movement, hopefully this isn't some sort of additional COVID news that comes out during the first quarter.
 
As for Texas Tech/MIssissippi State, this is another game where I was tempted to lay the points. However, now that it's gotten to 10.5 and even 11 in some spots, that's too many points. I get the whole Mike Leach motivation angle, and I think anyone who looks at this game can forsee a scenario where MSU bleeds Tech dry by 1,000 cuts and never punts, but Tech is capable on offense. Also, Leach's bowl history isn't good and they are much better in a dog role than as a team expected to blow someone out. Laying off this one.
 
7. Minnesota -5 v West Virginia: This is a line move that I haven't really figured out. Maybe there's people a lot smarter than me that see some value in West Virginia, but I don't. I looked hard to see what I was missing, but I can't really find anything of redeeming value for West Virginia. They don't really do anything all that well, and I don't see how their offense will have much success against the Minnesota defense, which has been solid all year. Defensively, WV had some decent performances but they aren't special on that side of the ball either. PJ Fleck has a good track record in bowls, and there is seldom any issue with motivation for his teams. WV will also be without their top offensive player Leddie Brown for whatever reason...he's got a chance to sneak into an NFL camp I guess. Ultimately, I trust Minnesota in this spot. Not an inspiring write up I know, but this seems like the kind of game the Gophers take care of business in.
 
Br@ssknux said:
7. Minnesota -5 v West Virginia: This is a line move that I haven't really figured out. Maybe there's people a lot smarter than me that see some value in West Virginia, but I don't. I looked hard to see what I was missing, but I can't really find anything of redeeming value for West Virginia. They don't really do anything all that well, and I don't see how their offense will have much success against the Minnesota defense, which has been solid all year. Defensively, WV had some decent performances but they aren't special on that side of the ball either. PJ Fleck has a good track record in bowls, and there is seldom any issue with motivation for his teams. WV will also be without their top offensive player Leddie Brown for whatever reason...he's got a chance to sneak into an NFL camp I guess. Ultimately, I trust Minnesota in this spot. Not an inspiring write up I know, but this seems like the kind of game the Gophers take care of business in.
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im confident enough in this one to sneeze my nose at the move, lol.. i get it, taking a td against minny prob not a terrible idea, i wouldnt have felt great laying 7 with gophers offense. i dont think they all that much different offensively but gophers defense is easily the best unit on the field in this one!!
 
Br@ssknux said:
7. Minnesota -5 v West Virginia: This is a line move that I haven't really figured out. Maybe there's people a lot smarter than me that see some value in West Virginia, but I don't. I looked hard to see what I was missing, but I can't really find anything of redeeming value for West Virginia. They don't really do anything all that well, and I don't see how their offense will have much success against the Minnesota defense, which has been solid all year. Defensively, WV had some decent performances but they aren't special on that side of the ball either. PJ Fleck has a good track record in bowls, and there is seldom any issue with motivation for his teams. WV will also be without their top offensive player Leddie Brown for whatever reason...he's got a chance to sneak into an NFL camp I guess. Ultimately, I trust Minnesota in this spot. Not an inspiring write up I know, but this seems like the kind of game the Gophers take care of business in.
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I've been impressed with my club's motivation in bowls the past several years, so completely agree with you on that angle. Hope it continues tonight. FWIW, there are TONS of MN residents that have winter homes in the PHX/Scottsdale area and everything I'm seeing is that there will be a decided fan advantage for the Gophers tonight.

I'm playing -5.
 
Taking a pass on 2 of the 3 games on 12/29.

I actually like the overall matchup for Virginia Tech in their game against Maryland, and the line is moving in VT's direction. Having said that, however, VT looks to have almost no passing game in this one since they have to go with Connor Bludrick, who was used primarily as a runner, and barely averaged 3 yards per attempt in his limited playing time. They also are missing all but 2 of their receivers, and only one guy who caught 10 passes this year will be playing. They're also missing some guys on defense. Jut too much missing to pull the trigger. As for Maryland, they haven't given any serious observer any reason to consider laying points with them over the past couple of months.

As for Oklahoma/Oregon, there are so many players missing from this game on both sides that this is a total crapshoot. No idea on the motivation, no idea who's going to be the primary playmakers, no idea on anything. It seems like Oregon will be without more players, but that's been baked into the line.
 
8. Clemson -2.5 v Iowa State: Clemson is one of the few teams that (from what I can tell) are relatively unscathed as far as opt outs. They have some guys transferring out, but the majority of their starters will be available for this game, which should give them a good chance to continue the momentum that they've established in the final month of the season. Kobe Pace and Will Shipley really got themselves going on the ground at the end of the year, and Clemson's defense was very solid all year. Iowa State will be without RB Breece Hall, just about everybody's 1st team All American running back, and that's a huge loss because they relied on him immensely to carry the mail for their offense. Without him, much of the burden will fall on Brock Purdy, who has decent numbers but consistently plays like a bonehead in important instances. When they need a TD, they are totally reliant on Hall. ISU moves the ball well, but I think they will find it hard to get the ball in the end zone without Hall against this Clemson defense, Defensively, Iowa State has been stout, but they gave up huge rushing performances in the last couple of weeks of the season against Texas Tech and Oklahoma, (200+ rushing yards allowed to both) two teams whose running games probably don't measure up to Clemson's at this juncture. Clemson is motivated to play this game per all accounts, and Dabo has a very good track record in the bowl season(9-3 ATS since 2013)
 
Br@ssknux said:
8. Clemson -2.5 v Iowa State: Clemson is one of the few teams that (from what I can tell) are relatively unscathed as far as opt outs. They have some guys transferring out, but the majority of their starters will be available for this game, which should give them a good chance to continue the momentum that they've established in the final month of the season. Kobe Pace and Will Shipley really got themselves going on the ground at the end of the year, and Clemson's defense was very solid all year. Iowa State will be without RB Breece Hall, just about everybody's 1st team All American running back, and that's a huge loss because they relied on him immensely to carry the mail for their offense. Without him, much of the burden will fall on Brock Purdy, who has decent numbers but consistently plays like a bonehead in important instances. When they need a TD, they are totally reliant on Hall. ISU moves the ball well, but I think they will find it hard to get the ball in the end zone without Hall against this Clemson defense, Defensively, Iowa State has been stout, but they gave up huge rushing performances in the last couple of weeks of the season against Texas Tech and Oklahoma, (200+ rushing yards allowed to both) two teams whose running games probably don't measure up to Clemson's at this juncture. Clemson is motivated to play this game per all accounts, and Dabo has a very good track record in the bowl season(9-3 ATS since 2013)
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I was having a hell of a time with this one but ultimately came to same conclusion of clemson or maybe some their rb props if I can get a good number. Little worried bout their qb vs isu d but maybe all the extra practices will give him a chance to springboard into a better season by playing well here, it not like he isn’t insanely talented. Other side I just don’t see isu scoring much on this clemson d, I didn’t think they would have with Hall, without him I think purdy in for a really tough day!
 
9. Tennessee -6 v Purdue: This is a game that opt outs are going to have a very profound effect in my opinion. I almost always like to take points with Purdue, but as much as I'd like to back them (since I just got done writing my son's tuition check to them) this is a really tough matchup for Brohm and company.. The nature of their offense is such that they typically will be able to move the ball on anyone, so the best matchups for them are defensive oriented teams that don't have overly explosive offenses. The Big Ten this year was full of teams like that, so they were able to have success with a combination of their scrappy defense and an offense that always found a way to out points on the board.. I think this Tennessee team is different from everyone on their schedule except for Ohio State. OSU is high tempo and has the athletes like the Vols do to overwhelm you, and the Purdue defense was shellshocked when they played in Columbus. Offensively, they were able to put points on the board themselves due to the nature of their offense, but they ultimately couldn't keep up. I fear that this is going to be the case against Tennessee as well, but without David Bell and Milton Wright outside, who are both HUGE losses, it's going to seriously harm their ability to match scores with the Vols, despite Tennessee's difficulties with stopping the pass. They'll also be without their top pass rusher in George Karlaftis, who makes a big difference for them. Had Purdue been at full strength, I would think 6 would be too many points, but without those guys, I think he Vols have a real opportunity to run and hide. Typically, over the past few years fading the Big Ten has been a severe losing proposition in Bowl Games, but this is not an ideal matchup for the Boilermakers.
 
10. Pittsburgh +3 v Michigan State: Both teams will be missing their best players on offense, with Pitt missing QB Kenny Pickett and MSU missing RB Kenneth Walker. Pickett is obviously a huge loss, and nobody really knows much about Pitt backup Nick Patti, but his teammates by all accounts believe in him, and if a backup was ever going to have success, this is probably the scenario. First, it appears he'll have Jordan Addison to throw to, and you could make a case that he was the most productive receiver in college football this year. Second, Patti and Addison will have the opportunity to go against the team that gave up the most yards passing on a per game basis in the country this year. Teams threw the ball more than 60% of the time against the Spartans, and who could blame them? I'd expect Pitt to do the same thing as they give up yards by the bushel and rarely pressure the passer. On the flip side, MSU will have a similar advantage when they throw the ball, but the pass game is not nearly as much of an MO for the Spartans, as they prefer to run it and will likely try to do that with capable backs like Jordon Simmons or Elijah Collins. Pitt however, was stout against the run, so it might put pressure on Peyton Thorne to produce. He has great weapons in Nailor and Reed, but Pitt is also adept at sacking the QB, so obvious passing downs might pose a problem for downfield routes with those two. Pitt also has a significant edge on 3rd down on both sides of the ball, which seems to have a profound impact in the bowls. Ultimately, I think I'm getting points with the more well rounded team, and although Pickett's loss is significant for the Panthers, the matchup is a good one for their offense.
 
Anyone looking for an opinion on North Carolina/South Carolina would be wise to look elsewhere, because I refuse to utter a syllable either in support or against North Carolina. I threw up a goose egg in their games despite a seemingly insatiable desire to be involved in virtually all of them. As a result, I'll be ignoring that game.
 
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