Bowl Season Thoughts/Plays

SportsNut said:
Line moves really havent meant much so far ...LaTech was a strong move won ...Rutgers got bet up then bet down and didnt cover .....think samething happend with the Memphis game .........

I kinda feel that way as far as value goes with NW . Was tring to figure a number for the game and was thinking aroun -10 / -11 . Problem is the conferences are so different . NW played well but they played all medicore offenses who had consistency issues and lacked star players on offense ..while Misssouri played in a conference filled with offensive teams and weak defenses.....

I just look at the road games for NW who struggled to win @ Duke and lost @ Indiana teams who defenses are probably worse then Mizzou and the offense wasnt there...

Thought about teasing NW and the Under as well ...

I am not buying the so called arguement the public is betting Missouri and thats why the number ran up . Thats just my opinion though...:shake:
Click to expand...

This is one of the 3 worst defenses NW has faced all year IMO... Its an interesting discussion because the Big 12 is loaded with offenses but most teams are terribly imbalanced Offense to Defense and Mizzu is the poster child of that characterization... I think the NW TT is pretty good but not sure I can play it..
 
tee*dub said:
This is one of the 3 worst defenses NW has faced all year IMO... Its an interesting discussion because the Big 12 is loaded with offenses but most teams are terribly imbalanced Offense to Defense and Mizzu is the poster child of that characterization... I think the NW TT is pretty good but not sure I can play it..
Click to expand...

Curious to see how it played out but considering their high is 24 points @ Duke went with the UNDER of 26 NW..

Really think the line BUMP was solely to get some NW money as it has since come down and the %s have dropped alot . Sort of a mini position by a couple of books..

I think one that has to be factored in is when teams score alot and quick it creates so many MORE possessions in a game . Here NW has to slow the pace and go with the keep away mentality from Mizzou's offense which to me means less possessions .

Guessing 38-21 MIZZOU ...

:cheers:
 
Also as bad as the rep is for the Mizzou defense the defense wasnt really that bad ...before the KU and OU games they allowed more then 28 pts just once in the games since the opener think it was 9 or 10 games and that was @ Texas. The ILL game they allowed 29 2nd H points and 22 came in teh final 16 minutes on a 65 yd TD pass and TD with literally no time left on the clock.....

otherwise they held some offenses in check ...Nevada and neb had 17 and 21 for Buffao with a ton of field position playing into points scored especially that KU game:cheers:
 
Under 67 {Level 3}
Under 26 Northwestern TT{Level2}
3rd Q Missouri -3 -120 {Level1}
Mizzou -13-120 {Level2}
Mizzou -13-130 {Level1}

Teasers : Mizz -14 , Nevada -2.5 and Houston -3.5 {Level2}

GL:cheers:
 
Guility of believing the LINE move yesterday and playing Missouri after leaning Northwestern. Just caught off guard by the move but definite reaction IMO to the Wisky and FSU game ...

Nevada ML -135 {Level2 = 1.25% of roll}
Over 60 {Level3= 2.50%}
1st H over 30 {Level1= 0.50%}
TT Over Nevada 31 -120 {Level1 = 0.50%}
TT Over Maryland 28 -130 {Level1= 0.50%}

Teaser :{Level1}
Maryland +12.5 , Oregon +11 and Over 51 Maryland

Prop
1st Score Maryland +100

GL:cheers:



 
Wolfpack17 said:
nice hit on that prop for md to score first.
Click to expand...


Thanks bro. Noticed along time ago that for some reason when lines move heavily the opposite of the move scores first . Sounds odd but just look at the last 3 games with big moves ....LaTech went from +2 to -2 and NIU scored first , Missouri goes from -11.5 to -14 and NW scores 1st , this game opened -1 and closed -2,5 or -3 ....

Patterns are always good to take advantage when they become formal trends is usually when its time to stop playing them...:shake:
 
2nd Half (Pending the line )

Nevada - {Level2}

1st H Maryland had 3 big play TDs but hasnt really sustained drives and had wonderful position . Look at Nevada after the opening drive at their own 26 they had the ball inside the 19 yd line every possession and still had TWO 80+ something yard drives for TDs.(83 and 97) They had a missed opportunity with great foeld position at the Maryland 9 but turned it over......

Literally 6 times the Wolfpack had the ball inside their 19 in 8 touches ! While Maryland only twice had it inside tehir own 33 !:cheers:
 
bad late TD for Maryland in terms of Nevada backers ...still though they had good field position and got a 15 yd penalty on the 1st play of the drive tacked on !

So Nevada -1.5 -120 {Level2} and over 29 {Level1}

GL
 
SportsNut said:
bad late TD for Maryland in terms of Nevada backers ...still though they had good field position and got a 15 yd penalty on the 1st play of the drive tacked on !

So Nevada -1.5 -120 {Level2} and over 29 {Level1}

GL
Click to expand...

you not worried about injured qb?
 
I just gambled it was an overreaction ....1st thought by Joe Public is the QB is hurt pund the other side .....Graziano was solid last year when he played and is a JR.....

Lucked out because Cole is playing:shake:

Put this way I never make a bet on public information and based soley on public perception
 
Add :

Oregon +1 {Level2}
Orgeon -110 {Level2}:cheers:
1st H Over 37.5 {Level1}
TT Under 39 Okie State {Level1}

Nothing crazy here just think that Okie State's 2 best games cames as huge dogs when they were not originally given much of a chance @ Mizzou and @ Texas..Ducks had the injuries and think they played a buncg of tougher games outside of the top 2 or 3 hardest ones

Western Michigan +3.5 -125 {Level3}
Western +3-125{Level1}
1st H Wester Mich +1 {Level2} and 1st H +0.5 {Level1}
1st H Over 37 {Level2}


Teaser :
WMU +8.5 and Oregon +7 {Level1}
WMU +12.5 , Oregon +11 , Over 64 WMU {Level2}

GL





 
Today :

Nevada ML -135 {Level2 = 1.25% of roll}
Over 60 {Level3= 2.50%}
1st H over 30 {Level1= 0.50%}
TT Over Nevada 31 -120 {Level1 = 0.50%}
TT Over Maryland 28 -130 {Level1= 0.50%}

Teaser :{Level1}
Maryland +12.5 , Oregon +11 and Over 51 Maryland (pending Oregon +11)

Prop
1st Score Maryland +100

2nd H:
Nevada -1.5-120 {Level2}
Over 29 {Level1}

Oregon +1 {Level2}
Orgeon -110 {Level2}
1st H Over 37.5 {Level1}
TT Under 39 Okie State {Level1}

Western Michigan +3.5 -125 {Level3}
Western +3-125{Level1}
1st H Wester Mich +1 {Level2} and 1st H +0.5 {Level1}
1st H Over 37 {Level2}


Teaser :
WMU +8.5 and Oregon +7 {Level1}
WMU +12.5 , Oregon +11 , Over 64 WMU {Level2}

2nd H:
Over 32.5 WMU {Level2}
WMU -2.5 {Level3}
Oregon -3 {Level3}
Over35.5 {Level2}







 
SportsNut said:
Today :

Nevada ML -135 {Level2 = 1.25% of roll}
Over 60 {Level3= 2.50%}
1st H over 30 {Level1= 0.50%}
TT Over Nevada 31 -120 {Level1 = 0.50%}
TT Over Maryland 28 -130 {Level1= 0.50%}

Teaser :{Level1}
Maryland +12.5 , Oregon +11 and Over 51 Maryland

Prop
1st Score Maryland +100


2nd H:
Nevada -1.5-120 {Level2}
Over 29 {Level1}

Night Games:

Oregon +1 and PK -110 split {Level3} Listed as seperate level2 plays
1st H Over 37.5 {Level1}
TT Under 39 Okie State {Level1}

Western Michigan +3.5 -125 {Level3}
Western +3-125{Level1}
1st H Wester Mich +1 {Level2} and 1st H +0.5 {Level1}
1st H Over 37 {Level2}

Teaser :
WMU +8.5 and Oregon +7 {Level1}
WMU +12.5 , Oregon +11 , Over 64 WMU {Level2}


2nd H:
Over 32.5 WMU {Level2}
WMU -2.5 {Level3}
Oregon -3 {Level3}
Over35.5 {Level2}

Now the STRETCH RUN....

Just totally had the WMU game wrong ..the good was basically had the other 2 so right .......

:shake:
Click to expand...

Now the fun starts !
 
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