Bowl Season Thoughts/Plays

S

SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
So many Sports to look at so little time . As the Bowl Season kicks into high gear and NFL winds down guess this becomes an emphasis ...Posted everywhere in this forum so far and here are the cliff notes ...

Will add my thoughts on later games as well as they come up . Havent played anything in advance except Houston -2.5 {Level3} way back when . It was one of the first games I mentioned in JPicks Bowl thread because I liked the revenge spots for certain teams as Houston already lost to Air Force . Missed some others but didnt have the time to look at them ...

My '08 bowl season in a NUT shell.....

Wake Forest -2.5 {Level2}
2ndH WF -3 {Level3}
2nd H Over 23 WF {Level1}

Col State +3.5 -120{Level3}
2nd H Col St +0.5 {Level2}
2nd H Over 31 {Level1}
Over 61 Col State {Level2} (forgot to post though before kick mentioned at halftime)

Memphis +11.5 {Level1}
Memphis +11-120 {Level1}
2ndH Memphis +3.5 {Level1}
Under 28 1st H {level1}
Under 57 {Level2}
2nd H Under 28 {Level1}

Zona -2.5-120 {Level3}
1stH Zona -2.5 -105{Level3}
1st H Under 31 {Level1}
3rdQ Zona -0.5 {Level1}
2nd H hedge BYU +0.5 {Level1} Hedge to full game play
(all 12/20 games were in the ingame and some in VKs thread)

1st H So Miss +3 -115 {Level2}
So Miss +4.5 {Level1}
Under 55 {Level2}
Teaser : So Miss and Under {Level1}
2nd H So Miss +3 {Level3}
2nd H Under 28-120 {Level1}
2nd H Parlay SMiss and Und {level1}essentially pays a Level2 play
(all in Kyle's thread)

Notre Dame ML -120{Level3}
Notre Dame ML -110{Level3}
(in Kyle's thread but only listed as POUNDED Notre Dame)

FAU +7.5 -116 avg price for the hook buy {Level3}
1st H FAU +4 +100 {Level1}
2nd H FAU +4.5 {Level1}
2nd H Over 34 {Level1}
2nd H Parlay FAU & over {Level1}

Red are the losses and Black the wins.


So 8 losses : one because OT was forced (SoMiss total) , one was only a hedge on a 3 unit play(not really a loss just 1/5th of the orginal play ) , 4 small ones in the Memphis game and decided to wait on the CMU under and hope for a high or low scoring 1st Half and go opposite which didnt pan out (no juevos!) .

Forgot to play the TCU game and like everyone was interested in TCU but the Under interested me more . Had no plays on that game . Naturally I mentioned ND as a pound play but one couldnt guess I double maxed it either and the Col State game total slipped by mind when I was posting that day and to show how much I liked it even play the 2nd H over after the 1st H was high scoring ...

Good Luck CTG ! :cheers:and continued success !

Also Thanks Bull from the FAU discussion thread.

Scribbling down some WVU / UNC thoughts now ..

 
finally, now we dont have to search high and low for your picks :cheers:

Hope you'll be on the morning WV under.. I especially like the 1h, as the line will be fresh and pat white is less likely to break a cheap one..gl
 
1 PM The What could have been BOWL

The Meineke Car Care Bowl : WVU vs UNC

Interesting matchup as both teams had higher expectations certainly as the season was winding down but stumbled late. On the WVU side I like the fact that this is where the BOWL streak began in 2002 and sort of a new chapter is written today as ERA closes . First with the graduation of Pat White who the universe knows is 3-0 in bowls so far defeating Georgia , GTech and Oklahoma last year . Though it also really ends the Rich Rodriguez ERA in a way as well now that Stewart is the Head Coach not the interim. It's his team and with each new season it will be more of his players and his staff .

One thing I focus more on is how teams play on the road in BOWL games . I just think away games show how teams play without the benefit of Home Field advantage which is tremendous on indivual and team 's performances . Worth so much more then a few points implied in a spread .

The WVU team more the offense has struggled to play two halves in nearly all the ROAD games. At Pitt they started fast and couldnt close the door , then @ Louisville and @ Uconn they started very slow looking like the weaker of the two teams playing at times in those 1st H's , @ Colorado they fell behind quickly 14-0 but remained tough and had a chance to ice the game late but couldnt make playes eventually losing . They could or should have won those 4 games but the initial road game @ ECU they looked lost but in fairness it was a new season and new staff with alot of young players on the road in its 1st D1 game . Naturally more was expected from the offense but that to had been tweaked and gone back to more of what it did well in the middle of the year . White also battled injuries and that clearly played a role midsason on the offense.

Stat I loved to see that teams in the past 54 games had seen the 3-3-5 defense for the 1st time where struggling vs WVU to the tune of the Mountaineers going 21-5 as this will be game 27 . Not sure if this is the 54th game which this will be #27 or this is the 55th game ...dont recall ...

UNC on the road also struggled with the offense some of which can be attributed to losing Tate and then their starting QB. Still games @ Maryland , @UVA and @ Miami didnt produce much offense . Nor did last season games @ Duke and hosting NCST which their starting QB return. If not for a spurt @ Rutgers near the end of the 2nd Q through the 3rd Q the Heels offense was very medicore away .

The weather looks okay as well around 50 degrees but still think a WVU team prefers warm or indoors with their style.

Only real issue with WVU is making sure Sidney Glover plays they have a CB injured but have 3 guys to rotate in that spot with experience and that youngster was one of their weaker links on defense .....

Most of UNC's offense has been generated by timely turnovers and great field position. Which to me explains why they have played so much better at home because easier to force the away team into mistakes generally then home team . So losing the comfort of home is huge for UNC as well where I think the Pitt game will be great experience for WVU. Though the comeback win @ Miami was nice for UNC as well ...

Both defenses allow yards but not many points and the offenses struggle to maximize offensive situations . Love the edge WVU could have with McAfee PUNTING ....could help dampen the prospects of good UNC field position ...

After starting off #8 in the preseason polls this is redemption IMO in alot of ways for WVU vs a still growing UNC team and program.....


Plays :
WVU ML -128 avg price {Level3}
Under 48 -120 {level2}
1st Q WVU -0.5 +120 {Level1}
TT under 22.5 UNC {Level1}
1st H under 23.5 {Level1}

Good Luck ...:cheers:
 
Thanks True and Nawlins . After yesterday how could I pass on a total I liked and you played ..lol !

Anyway got sidetracked by a phone call but finishing up the rest of the card now...

GL:cheers:
 
good to see you on the under. I am on that one as well. Leaning toward all unders today but only playing this one right now. GL
 
So there is no mystery as to what I am thinking :

Looking at the Wisconsin OVER hard for me to find a reason to not be playing this and guess all that is up for debate is what % I put on this game . The side I am clearly looking for reasons to play Wisky but its only a lean which means as I look deeper it could flip to liking FSU just as easily . Just a game I havent figured out yet ...

Later on want to look more at the offenses but thinking about the UNDER as it rises . Cant say I am interested in a side but like the idea of teasing Cal to PK , and the Chargers tmrw had thought about including WVU but as I said sidetracked by a phone call and never got to it ...so that 3rd teser spot is open and maybe I just use one of the totals from the CFB games ...

Really unsure but will have some stuff I guess around halftime of this game....

GL:cheers:

Also thanks and Dan ...GL :cheers:
 
Trueblue said:
fuck me... these defenses suck.
Click to expand...

Might setup a 2nd Play . Hope to get at least WVU 1st Q to offset the silly 1st H play . WVU is known to start fast in Bowl games and UNC has started fast in alot of games as well and usually ends up with one high scoring quarter....

Cant give WVU the ball on the 40 either much different offense when starting at the 20 or inside it ...:shake:
 
Cant complain much because WVU weakness was pass defense and UNC best offensive weapon was Yates to Nix . Then WVU has loads of potential on offense ..

Shit happens hard to expect this to happen but like most unexpected things it comes in the form of an extreme occurrence.

Sucks to lose but also sometimes betters this way then have to agonize for 4 quarters and lose anyway......

:shake::cheers:

Snuck in WVU 1st Quarter !! At least split the 1st H plays...
 
SN - Why Wisconsin and the OVER?

I was sort of leaning the opposite...My favorite play is the Under 51 1/2. These 2 teams love to run with Wisconsin averaging 212 rushing ypg and Florida 180. For Wisconsin its Hill with 4.8 ypc and Clay at 5.9 yards. FSU has Smith who has 14 TD's. However, that may be it as both have inconsistent QB's...neither one throws the ball well and can't really be counted on. Although teams average 25+ ppg vs Wisconsin they do well vs the run at 133 ypg and the pass at 189 ypg. However, FSU is even better as they only allow 292 total ypg and only 127 ypg on the ground. So, I see both teams relying on the ground game to keep out of trouble. This will eat up clock and keep this one under. Am also leaning to FSU -6 as their defense is far superior and really don't see PJ Hill as a threat if Wisconsin gets down. So FSU should put 8 on the line and dare Hill to beat them. FSU wins. 30-17
 
Trueblue said:
2h under of any interest?
Click to expand...

I would take the under but these teams are Jekyl and Hyde today.The 2nd quarter is how this game was suppose to be. The question is do we see an explosive 3rd quarter and a slow 4th quarter. Hard to get a read today on these 2.
 
2nd H :

Under 26 {Level2}
WVU -2.5 {Level1}

Sorry , again sidetracked . I think field position played a huge role for WVU scoring quick and longer drives are needed in the 2nd H . I also think the 1 play UNC TDs will be hard to come by......little concerned about the WVU INT before half as 24-23 would have made me happy but think the UNC team had alot of time on the field...might bump WVU to level 2 although have to play -120 on the remaining

GL:cheers:
 
nawlins51 said:
I would take the under but these teams are Jekyl and Hyde today.The 2nd quarter is how this game was suppose to be. The question is do we see an explosive 3rd quarter and a slow 4th quarter. Hard to get a read today on these 2.
Click to expand...

Based on the reg season WVU offensively has not played many games if any where they showed well on offense for 2 halves . For UNC most of their road games we see them having big spurts or quarters ...21 in the 3rd @ RU , 14 @ Miami in the 14 th Q , 10 @ UVA in the 1st , 14 @ Duke in the 1st ...and the Duke game ended 28-20 despite being 14up after 1 and 21-17 at half :cheers:Hoping its part of these teams profiles to be spurty on offense..
 
GL sn took wvu at half as well. Did want to play that under but the way the game started kinda makes me wonder a bit with this total. I do like that if wvu controls the game then it should go under so that should help.
 
spiderman said:
SN - Why Wisconsin and the OVER?

I was sort of leaning the opposite...My favorite play is the Under 51 1/2. These 2 teams love to run with Wisconsin averaging 212 rushing ypg and Florida 180. For Wisconsin its Hill with 4.8 ypc and Clay at 5.9 yards. FSU has Smith who has 14 TD's. However, that may be it as both have inconsistent QB's...neither one throws the ball well and can't really be counted on. Although teams average 25+ ppg vs Wisconsin they do well vs the run at 133 ypg and the pass at 189 ypg. However, FSU is even better as they only allow 292 total ypg and only 127 ypg on the ground. So, I see both teams relying on the ground game to keep out of trouble. This will eat up clock and keep this one under. Am also leaning to FSU -6 as their defense is far superior and really don't see PJ Hill as a threat if Wisconsin gets down. So FSU should put 8 on the line and dare Hill to beat them. FSU wins. 30-17
Click to expand...

Agree alot of running expected but not so impressed by either defense vs the run. I think FSU defense is extremely overrated looking at them week to week . If its a grinding game on the ground then under makes sense but looking for both teams to do more then run effectively .Turnovers are they the type that tkaes points off the board or put points on the board ?? Really both teams offensively tend to leave a lot of points of the board and still the games they play in end up high scoring ...Wisky defense is medicore

Little concerned about backing Wisky but do like the experience angle. The speed and athletes angle gets so overplayed these days IMO. It applies but its not going to be the key point of deciding every game . The ACC is filled with medicore or worse offenses..

Pretty much figured worst case if the spread was accurate 28-21 type game but think Wisky offense can do more then that ....

Short on time but just think the defenses are medicore and think both teams can move the ball effectively just a matter of what happens once they do

GL








 
4:30 Bowl

Over 50.5 -120 {Level3}
1st H Over 26 {Level1}
Wisky 1st H +3.5 {Level2}
Teaser : Cal PK , SD +1 , under Cal {Level 2}

GL:cheers:

 
TheSportsThing said:
GL sn took wvu at half as well. Did want to play that under but the way the game started kinda makes me wonder a bit with this total. I do like that if wvu controls the game then it should go under so that should help.
Click to expand...

Congrats ! Just saw how that type Quarter often happened in games for these two this season..:cheers:
 
really dont have much to say on this game .

Wisky has the experience edge and like that as a good motivating factor after a disappointing season that was somewhat turned around . Wisky much like WVU though shows a tendency to play just 1 good half of ball . So gambling its the 1st H as would think its better for them to start well and not try and hang around vs FSU ...Might be interested in FSU after the half as well it is mid 70s but not to humid in Orlando

With alot of the drama with the FSU coaching situation I also expect a good effort from the offense for that reason. Spot light is on him some and think Jimbo has a good game plan ....The game for me with Wisky that seems similiar is @ Iowa and Greene had 200 + yards with 4 TDs......

Thats about all just expected a worst case scenario scoring wise of 28-21 or 31-20 which is why i bought off 51 to 50.5 ...

Sorry not much depth here on this one...GL all :cheers:

 
Really not interested in the moment in the late Bowl game. Have it teased with the Chargers but not sure I add to it....

Good Luck about to kick ! :cheers:
 
So far, not a good start for either offense. I was expecting FSU to take advantage of pinning Wisconsin deep, but they couldn't and now it looks like it's going to settle in to a low scoring battle.
 
Guess based on the fact I expected a faster start from Wisky should have played the 1st Q rather then 1st H .

Happy that FSU scored at the end to open this game . Cant beliebe how terrible th eoffense looked after the 1st two drives . Wisky moved the ball but lack of passing game has hurt but still could have had 14 rather then 3 points if they executed.....

2nd H :
Over 23.5 FSU {Level2}

lean to Wisky they can move the ball vs the FSU defense just a matter of getting some points . Saying they dominanted was a stretch but until the last 40 seconds Wisky had clearly outplayed FSU minus a fumble.....

GL:cheers:still alive needing 5 TDs for the over ...
 
spiderman said:
So far, not a good start for either offense. I was expecting FSU to take advantage of pinning Wisconsin deep, but they couldn't and now it looks like it's going to settle in to a low scoring battle.
Click to expand...

Happened a few times and each time was excited but didnt happen:cheers:
 
spiderman said:
I wonder if being down 21-6 will now give Wisconson's offense a sense of urgency.....As I was typing this, Hill fumbled the ball away on a Wisconsin drive.
Click to expand...

Misleading score but just shows how important losing or gaining momentum is . Especially is the inferior team continues make negative momentum plays......

FG needed with 11 minutes to play for the game over ...FSU steam rolling orginally figured they would win the 2nd H but got blinded by the 1st Half..

Hmm think FSU and Over was a good teaser ...didnt dawn on me to the 4th Quarter though so useless...:36_11_6::cheers:

 
1st H Under 24.5 {Level1}
Miami +10.5 -120 {Level1}
4th Q Miami +0.5 {level1}

GL some small action plus the teaser pending
 
Review :

WVU ML -128 avg price {Level3}
Under 48 -120 {level2}
1st Q WVU -0.5 +120 {Level1}
TT under 22.5 UNC {Level1}
1st H under 23.5 {Level1}
2nd H Under 26 UNC {Level2}
2nd H WVU -2.5 {Level1}
Over 50.5 -120 Wisky {Level3}
1st H Over 26 Wisky {Level1}
Wisky 1st H +3.5 {Level2}
Teaser : Cal PK , SD +1 , under Cal {Level 2} Pending still SD Chargers.
2nd H Over 23.5 FSU {Level2}
Wisky 2nd H +1 {Level1}
1st H Under 24.5 {Level1}
Miami +10.5 -120 {Level1}
4th Q Miami +0.5 {level1}

Damn my balls are small ! Passed on playing the Cal under , Cal 2nd H under and Miami at half because I wasnt willing to risk some good breaks to win my early big plays ...Still need the Chargers for the Teaser ...

Basically hit my 2 big plays and vigged out the rest so if the teaser hit should wash out the vig losses and leave me up tad better then two Level 3 wins ...

:cheers:
 
Independence Bowl :

Northern Ill +3.5 -125 {Level3}

1st Q under 9.5 +100 {Level2}


TT Under 24 LaTech {Level2}
lean Over NIU TT

Teaser :
NIU +8.5 & Under 52.5 {Level2}
NIU +8.5 & SD Chargers -1 {Level2}

Under 47.5 -125 {Level1}
1st H Under 23.5 {Level1}
1st H NIU +0.5 {Level2}


Good Luck ...

Being in the home city sure helps but at look at the LaTEch offense and play in general on the road and unimpressed . NIU showed alot better IMO in road games and playing @ Tenny is like a BOWL game with that crowd and stadium size .

LaTech owned close wins down the strecth vs teams like Fresno State who unraveled and lost to CSU in their bowl , Utah State , Idaho , @ NM State who own some of the worst defenses and teams in 1 A. Also SJST whose offense fell apart late and watched Fresno just hadn off the ball and beat them...Their pass defense is TERRIBLE and I understand NIU is not doing much with Harnish via the pass but they are HORRIBLE ...which is why Nevada was able to come back on them.....its why I was so down on CMU this week..

NIU has a solid defense that is bend dont break and LaTech is solid vs the run..Only teams to score much on NIU were CMU and Ball State ...

Like the under and may add to it expect these defenses to lead the way early .....

NIU avg 5 pts away in the 1st Q and LaTech allowed only 3.5 while LaTech scored just 1.2 pts vs a defense allowing 4.0....mix in the bowl factor and unaccustomed programs hoping some grinding drives kill clocks and result in punts....NIU 9.7 1st H pts vs 16.2 in the 2nd H

Thinking 13-17 pts for LaTech here look at the pts Tech allows minus a handful of games its 31+ 4 of last 5 I think...

GL :cheers:



 
SportsNut said:
Independence Bowl :


Northern Ill +3.5 -125 {Level3}

1st Q under 9.5 +100 {Level2}


TT Under 24 LaTech {Level2}


Teaser :
NIU +8.5 & Under 52.5 {Level2}
NIU +8.5 & SD Chargers -1 {Level2}

Under 47.5 -125 {Level1}
1st H Under 23.5 {Level1}
1st H NIU +0.5 {Level2}
2nd Q Under 13.5 {Level1}



Good Luck ...

Being in the home city sure helps but at look at the LaTEch offense and play in general on the road and unimpressed . NIU showed alot better IMO in road games and playing @ Tenny is like a BOWL game with that crowd and stadium size .

LaTech owned close wins down the strecth vs teams like Fresno State who unraveled and lost to CSU in their bowl , Utah State , Idaho , @ NM State who own some of the worst defenses and teams in 1 A. Also SJST whose offense fell apart late and watched Fresno just hadn off the ball and beat them...Their pass defense is TERRIBLE and I understand NIU is not doing much with Harnish via the pass but they are HORRIBLE ...which is why Nevada was able to come back on them.....its why I was so down on CMU this week..

NIU has a solid defense that is bend dont break and LaTech is solid vs the run..Only teams to score much on NIU were CMU and Ball State ...

Like the under and may add to it expect these defenses to lead the way early .....

NIU avg 5 pts away in the 1st Q and LaTech allowed only 3.5 while LaTech scored just 1.2 pts vs a defense allowing 4.0....mix in the bowl factor and unaccustomed programs hoping some grinding drives kill clocks and result in punts....NIU 9.7 1st H pts vs 16.2 in the 2nd H

Thinking 13-17 pts for LaTech here look at the pts Tech allows minus a handful of games its 31+ 4 of last 5 I think...

GL :cheers:
Click to expand...

I cant complain really . Didnt get the breaks and feel like I had a good feel for the game .

Like I expected LaTech is complete garbage especially on offense and NIU gift wrapped a win . Credit to LaTech for continually keeping NIU pinned in the 2nd H but LaTech had so many chances to open the game up and did nothing ..

Some things to note ...
NIU 1st Drive - Explain why on 4th and 1 at LaTech 19yd line they decide to go for it and pass up a FG and worse throw a pass ? Didnt they just get shutout , isnt Chandler a young QB , isnt your defense good , isnt the LaTech offense medicore and one dimensonal ??

-Pure FUCKING stupidity !

NIU 2nd drive - results in a 11 play 69 yd TD drive both times NIU started at their own 31 yd line .

-They score go up 7-0 with 2 minutes to play in the 1st Quarter . Of course because this was the game that my good fortune would have to be repaid LaTech gets 97 yd kick return . Why do I feel like its probably the 1st kickoff return and may punt return all season?? So they bust my 1st H under PLAY ...gee thanks !!

NIU 3rd drive - great field position own 36yd line , on 2nd and 10 at the 36 yd line pick up 6 yards but get a 15 yd PENALTY so rather then 3rd and 4 at the 42 yd line its 3rd and 19 at the 27 . Which of course is kinda a enhancing LaTech's momentum after they answer with a TD. So wasted opportunity and worst case if they PUNT good chance they are at the LaTech 20 or worse.

-Not sure what happened but net punt is 15 yards !! LaTech starts at the NIU 42 yd line ....more momentum ! After LaTech had the ball the defense did good and bad things ...allows 15 yd penalty down to 24 yd line , stuffs Porter for a loss but on 2nd and long allows a 24 yd reception to Porter , at the 2 they sack jenkins back at the 11 but still allow an 11 yd TD run on 2nd and goal from the 11 ....GIFTS !

NIU 4th drive - Again good field position at their own 34 but 3 and out ....

-LaTEch must have run a fake or botched a snap as on 4th and 7 they get 6 yds and turn the ball over at the LT 46.

NIU 5th drive - they move the ball in consistent chunks and on 2nd and 7 from the LaTech Harnish is picked ! So INT in the red zone as the play started from the LaTech 20. So rather then at least 2 FGs or maybe a FG or TD (possibly 2 TDs if they converted on 4th and 1 earlier ) they get ZERO points !! Three trips inside the LaTech 20 and just 1 TD to show .....

-NIU defense holds and ball goes back to them but pinned at the NIU 12 ...

NIU 6th drive - backed up they have to PUNT on 4th and 1 at their own 21...

-LaTech ball and they are stopped but NIU FUMBLES the PUNT ...LaTech recovers at the 24 and really goes nowhere and caught a small break when the FGattempt is blocked from 41 yds . Only a small break because it should have been NIU ball anyway !!

HALFTIME !
NIU 3 trips into the red zone ONLY 7 points , allow a 97 yd kick return , have a punt that NETS 15 yds setting up a short field TD drive , fumble a PUNT and give LaTech the ball at NIUs 24 and they stepped up and blocked a FG attempt from 41 yds .....

NIU plays fundamentally sound and they are up 17-0 ....

LaTech get the ball to start and naturally good field position to start own 38 . Nice 20 yd play on the 1st play from scrimmage but that was it except for a costly 15 yd NIU penalty on 2nd and 10 at the 28 yd line the Bulldogs settle for a 30 yd FG. Now 17-7 LTech

NIU 7th drive and funny third time they star at their own 31 yd line . Move the ball overcome a 10 yd penalty and 3rd and long with a 40 yd gain . Have it 1st and goal at the LaTech 8 and settle for a 20 YD FG ....down 17-10 and now 4 trips inside the LaTech Red Zone and only 10 points !!! Hell four FGs is 12 points !

-NIU defense holds after the FG drive but they Bulldogs moved the ball a tad past midfield. Of course NIU is pinned at their own 11 .

NIU 8th drive : backed up at the 11 they stall at 4th and 3 at the NIU 30 but silly consecutive 5 yd penalties cost them 10 yds and FIELD position !

-LaTech starts at the thier own 32 but that could have been at the LT 20 ...though LT fumbled andlost a few yards and NIU didnt recover ....

NIU 9th drive : start at the NIU 23 , gain 3 yds m but INC , INC ...PUNT

-Again shit punt and KT starts at their own 42 . They seemed to do well on 1st down at times and picked up 16 yds but on 3rd down and 1 at the NIU 34 the defense stuffed Porter. They take a few penalties to move them back and punt ...

NIU 10th drive : of course they pin them at the NIU 7 and another 4th and 1 which they punt . Again good field posityion for LaTech

-start at midfield...3rd and 7 at the NIU 46 they get a 34 yd gain but FUMBLE ...clearly a break for NIU but again NIU is backed up !!

NIU 11th drive : start at the 12 yd line...after a 1st down on 1st and 10 at the NIU 23 Harnish is picked off!! So the fumble that was lost not that *** for LT because they get another chance and with momentum

-LaTech starts at the NIU 37 , INC , 2 yd loss and sack ...another great job by the defense to hold them to a PUNT !

NIU 12th drive : Again stuck at the NIU 10 yd line !Make some plays and are 1st and 10 at the NIU 48 basically midfield down a TD only still with 3 minutes to play. As poor as the LT defense is why did NIU have to throw on 1st and 2nd down ? Spann had a 27 yd run on 1st down when they started the drive but he doesnt get a touch ?? After 2 INCs and then 6 yds on 3rd down facing 4th and 4 at the LT 46 Harnish is INC....so stopped on downs and LTech ball....

-Again NIU defense holds but doesnt have 3 TOs so starting at 2:22 by the time they get the ball back after the punt just 31 seconds left in the game....

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=560 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width=275><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=ysptblhead><TH colSpan=6>Northern Illinois Drives</TH></TR><TR class=ysptblhead2><TH colSpan=6>1st Quarter </TH></TR><TR class=ysptblhead3><TH>Start
Time</TH><TH>Time
Poss</TH><TH>Drive
Began</TH><TH># of
Plays</TH><TH>Yards
Gained</TH><TH vAlign=top>Result</TH></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>14:54 </TD><TD class=c>4:52 </TD><TD class=c>NIU 31</TD><TD class=c>10</TD><TD class=c>50</TD><TD class=c>Downs</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD class=c>7:46 </TD><TD class=c>5:50 </TD><TD class=c>NIU 31</TD><TD class=c>11</TD><TD class=c>69</TD><TD class=c>TD</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>1:38 </TD><TD class=c>0:53 </TD><TD class=c>NIU 36</TD><TD class=c>3</TD><TD class=c>-9</TD><TD class=c>Punt</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD colSpan=6> </TD></TR><TR class=ysptblhead2><TH colSpan=6>2nd Quarter </TH></TR><TR class=ysptblhead3><TH>Start
Time</TH><TH>Time
Poss</TH><TH>Drive
Began</TH><TH># of
Plays</TH><TH>Yards
Gained</TH><TH vAlign=top>Result</TH></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>13:33 </TD><TD class=c>1:37 </TD><TD class=c>NIU 34</TD><TD class=c>3</TD><TD class=c>2</TD><TD class=c>Punt</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD class=c>9:42 </TD><TD class=c>3:05 </TD><TD class=c>LT 46</TD><TD class=c>6</TD><TD class=c>26</TD><TD class=c>Int</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>3:20 </TD><TD class=c>1:14 </TD><TD class=c>NIU 12</TD><TD class=c>3</TD><TD class=c>9</TD><TD class=c>Punt</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD class=c>0:16 </TD><TD class=c>0:16 </TD><TD class=c>NIU 24</TD><TD class=c>1</TD><TD class=c>-2</TD><TD class=c>End Half</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD colSpan=6> </TD></TR><TR class=ysptblhead2><TH colSpan=6>3rd Quarter </TH></TR><TR class=ysptblhead3><TH>Start
Time</TH><TH>Time
Poss</TH><TH>Drive
Began</TH><TH># of
Plays</TH><TH>Yards
Gained</TH><TH vAlign=top>Result</TH></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>11:47 </TD><TD class=c>4:16 </TD><TD class=c>NIU 31</TD><TD class=c>10</TD><TD class=c>66</TD><TD class=c>FG</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD class=c>4:15 </TD><TD class=c>3:51 </TD><TD class=c>NIU 11</TD><TD class=c>6</TD><TD class=c>9</TD><TD class=c>Punt. Fumble</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD colSpan=6> </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD colSpan=6> </TD></TR><TR class=ysptblhead2><TH colSpan=6>4th Quarter </TH></TR><TR class=ysptblhead3><TH>Start
Time</TH><TH>Time
Poss</TH><TH>Drive
Began</TH><TH># of
Plays</TH><TH>Yards
Gained</TH><TH vAlign=top>Result</TH></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>14:09 </TD><TD class=c>0:58 </TD><TD class=c>NIU 23</TD><TD class=c>3</TD><TD class=c>3</TD><TD class=c>Punt</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD class=c>10:27 </TD><TD class=c>1:42 </TD><TD class=c>NIU 7</TD><TD class=c>3</TD><TD class=c>8</TD><TD class=c>Punt</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>7:48 </TD><TD class=c>1:23 </TD><TD class=c>NIU 12</TD><TD class=c>3</TD><TD class=c>11</TD><TD class=c>Int</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD class=c>4:39 </TD><TD class=c>2:21 </TD><TD class=c>NIU 10</TD><TD class=c>8</TD><TD class=c>44</TD><TD class=c>Downs</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>0:31 </TD><TD class=c>0:31 </TD><TD class=c>NIU 23</TD><TD class=c>3</TD><TD class=c>8</TD><TD class=c>End Reg</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD width=10></TD><TD vAlign=top width=275><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=ysptblhead><TH colSpan=6>Louisiana Tech Drives</TH></TR><TR class=ysptblhead2><TH colSpan=6>1st Quarter </TH></TR><TR class=ysptblhead3><TH>Start
Time</TH><TH>Time
Poss</TH><TH>Drive
Began</TH><TH># of
Plays</TH><TH>Yards
Gained</TH><TH vAlign=top>Result</TH></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>10:02 </TD><TD class=c>2:16 </TD><TD class=c>LT 19</TD><TD class=c>6</TD><TD class=c>22</TD><TD class=c>Punt</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD class=c>0:45 </TD><TD class=c>2:05 </TD><TD class=c>NIU 42</TD><TD class=c>5</TD><TD class=c>42</TD><TD class=c>TD</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD colSpan=6> </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD colSpan=6> </TD></TR><TR class=ysptblhead2><TH colSpan=6>2nd Quarter </TH></TR><TR class=ysptblhead3><TH>Start
Time</TH><TH>Time
Poss</TH><TH>Drive
Began</TH><TH># of
Plays</TH><TH>Yards
Gained</TH><TH vAlign=top>Result</TH></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>11:56 </TD><TD class=c>2:14 </TD><TD class=c>LT 26</TD><TD class=c>5</TD><TD class=c>20</TD><TD class=c>Downs</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD class=c>6:37 </TD><TD class=c>3:17 </TD><TD class=c>LT 20</TD><TD class=c>6</TD><TD class=c>26</TD><TD class=c>Punt</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>2:06 </TD><TD class=c>1:50 </TD><TD class=c>LT 39</TD><TD class=c>7</TD><TD class=c>37</TD><TD class=c>FG Miss</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD colSpan=6> </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD colSpan=6> </TD></TR><TR class=ysptblhead2><TH colSpan=6>3rd Quarter </TH></TR><TR class=ysptblhead3><TH>Start
Time</TH><TH>Time
Poss</TH><TH>Drive
Began</TH><TH># of
Plays</TH><TH>Yards
Gained</TH><TH vAlign=top>Result</TH></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>14:54 </TD><TD class=c>3:00 </TD><TD class=c>LT 38</TD><TD class=c>8</TD><TD class=c>49</TD><TD class=c>FG</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD class=c>7:19 </TD><TD class=c>3:04 </TD><TD class=c>LT 20</TD><TD class=c>7</TD><TD class=c>35</TD><TD class=c>Punt. Fumble</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>0:24 </TD><TD class=c>1:15 </TD><TD class=c>LT 32</TD><TD class=c>3</TD><TD class=c>8</TD><TD class=c>Punt</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD colSpan=6> </TD></TR><TR class=ysptblhead2><TH colSpan=6>4th Quarter </TH></TR><TR class=ysptblhead3><TH>Start
Time</TH><TH>Time
Poss</TH><TH>Drive
Began</TH><TH># of
Plays</TH><TH>Yards
Gained</TH><TH vAlign=top>Result</TH></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>13:11 </TD><TD class=c>2:44 </TD><TD class=c>LT 42</TD><TD class=c>4</TD><TD class=c>14</TD><TD class=c>Punt</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD class=c>8:45 </TD><TD class=c>0:57 </TD><TD class=c>NIU 49</TD><TD class=c>3</TD><TD class=c>37</TD><TD class=c>Fumble</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>6:25 </TD><TD class=c>1:46 </TD><TD class=c>NIU 37</TD><TD class=c>3</TD><TD class=c>-5</TD><TD class=c>Punt</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD class=c>2:18 </TD><TD class=c>1:47 </TD><TD class=c>LT 46</TD><TD class=c>3</TD><TD class=c>-10</TD><TD class=c>Punt</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Look at the huge difference in field position from NIU 1st 5 possessions which ended in an INT and see they had 9 possessions after that and really 2 dont count 16 seconds before half and 31 secs left in the game . In 5 of those 7 drives they started at their own 12 yd line or worse ..one time at the 23 which was punt and the other at the NIU 31 which resulted in a 20yd FG....in those 1st 5 possessions they had it NIU 31 , NIU 31 , NIU34 , NIU 36 and LT 46 ...they had a TD and 2 turnovers in the red zone factor that with the 2nd H drive which started at the NIU 31 that resulted in FG you could see the HUGE difference with NIU's offense starting at the 31 or better and only 1 drive was much better field position at the LT 46 vs the NIU drives that started at the 12 or worse....

NIU starting at the 31 or better :
happened 6 times : 2 punts , TD , 20 yd FG , 2 turnovers in the red zone ..
43 plays 204 yds 10PTS in 4 red zone trips

NIU starting at their own 12 or worse: ( 4 were 2nd H possessions)
happened 5 times : 3 punts , INT and stopped on downs
23 plays 81 yds ZERO PTS

NIU starting inbewteen :
1 time : own 23 yd line
3plays 3 yds : Punt

Thats 12 possessions plus the 2 they had which I dont count before half with 16 seconds and at the end of the gme with no timeouts at their own 23 yd line and 31 seconds....

LaTech had 13 possessions(last one before half was a double possession recover fumble after punting ) which they last one after the TOD with 2 minutes left doesnt count as they just try to run clock...but also had a kick return TD which I didnt count as possesion which it is

12 possessions : doesnt include the kick return TD or final game possession
started at their own 19 and 20 yd lines TWICE for 3 possessions all game
decent job 19plays 83 yds picked up some 1st downs ...leaves 9 possessions

1 possession inside their own 30 at the LT 26 winds up a TOD somehow and NIU ball at the LT 46..

8 possessions remain :
LT 32 , LT 38 , LT 39 , LT 42 , NU 24 ,NIU 37 , NIU 42 and NIU 49
Only 2 red zone trips or half what NIU had and 10 pts what NIU had also had a BLOCKED 41 yd FG ...

8 times they had good field position and 4 times started in NIU but had just 3 chances for points thanks to a fumble inside the red zone ...

33 plays 182 yds

So sad that NIU choked early on offense and Special Teams but the HC set the tone IMO......

:shake:












 
sportsnut,

yeah, we do seem to do well together when we are on the same sid...GL tomorrow...
 
Hate games like the RU / NCST matchup when I cant decide what to play and wind up passing. Then every single play I liked won ! RU -6-120 pushed , NCST +7.5 -130 win , Under 57 win , RU 2nd H -4.5 and at least I did hit the one I did play over 28.5 2nd H.....damn though everytime my balls shrink seems like a win !

Under 67 {Level 3}
Under 26 Northwestern TT{Level2}
3rd Q Missouri -3 -120 {Level1}

On the fence with a side played Mizzou -13-130 {Level2} but not sure I want to keep it........was thinking 38-21 game ..

Big Ten offenses are just very medicore and mix in the fact NW plays the spread like Missouri it should be that tough for them to figure out .....Just to much offense for Mizzou IMO......:cheers:BOL expect that I keep the Missouri bet




 
whats your take on this huge late line movement on Mizzu/NW.. from 12.5 to 14.5 in an hour basically... Played NW at 14.5.. too much value to pass IMO.. Books left a huge middle open for a ton of people.. Hope they get burnt.
 
tee*dub said:
whats your take on this huge late line movement on Mizzu/NW.. from 12.5 to 14.5 in an hour basically... Played NW at 14.5.. too much value to pass IMO.. Books left a huge middle open for a ton of people.. Hope they get burnt.
Click to expand...

Line moves really havent meant much so far ...LaTech was a strong move won ...Rutgers got bet up then bet down and didnt cover .....think samething happend with the Memphis game .........

I kinda feel that way as far as value goes with NW . Was tring to figure a number for the game and was thinking aroun -10 / -11 . Problem is the conferences are so different . NW played well but they played all medicore offenses who had consistency issues and lacked star players on offense ..while Misssouri played in a conference filled with offensive teams and weak defenses.....

I just look at the road games for NW who struggled to win @ Duke and lost @ Indiana teams who defenses are probably worse then Mizzou and the offense wasnt there...

Thought about teasing NW and the Under as well ...

I am not buying the so called arguement the public is betting Missouri and thats why the number ran up . Thats just my opinion though...:shake:
 
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