Bowl Season 2025-2026 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

28. Indiana -3.5 v Oregon (BOL) : Juice at BOL is shaded to Oregon, so maybe this is still falling? I'm going to be on Indiana regardless, but it might be worth seeing what happens there. On paper this is a close matchup, but in reality, I will be very surprised if Indiana loses this game. Much credence will be given to the first matchup, and it should be, but one difference about this one is that I see a slight edge "mindset" motivation for Oregon. They got handled on their home field by the Hoosiers and you know that no Lanning team is ever going to be lacking in confidence. Their Moby Dick is Indiana and they undoubtedly believe that they can win if they play their game. Indiana has supreme confidence, but I'm thinking their Moby Dick was the Rose Bowl against the storied SEC program last week. It seems like it would be hard to believe that they could conjure up another perfect effort like that one, so it would SEEM LIKE Oregon would have an edge. If Indiana had a mortal coach that is. The Hoosier players are so locked in, and so confident in their process that they rightly believe that they have the blueprint to victory. Oregon could not run the ball on them, at all, in the last matchup, and Oregon is coming off a game that they couldn't run it against Texas Tech either. Cignetti undoubtedly picked up some additional tidbits from that film, and I think the game planning is going to be very skewed in Indiana's favor due to those coordinators having their duties split. Both Cal and Kentucky are picking up transfer portal guys left and right(as is Indiana by the way...Josh Hoover under Cignetti....HOLY SHIT) so they are clearly working two different jobs. You cannot hope to compete against Cignetti half paying attention. Defensively, I think Indiana is going to run on Oregon and the Hoosiers will be able to play action as a result. Dante Moore was running for his life last time, and I can't see how that's going to be any different this time. The kicker for me, however, is the specific Lanning v Cignetti matchup. Oregon went for it 8 times on 4th down against Texas Tech and had to convert 19 third downs. There was no explosiveness at all, and I definitely cannot see Indiana all of the sudden being susceptible to big plays. Oregon converted 4 of the 8 4th downs, but they were lucky to do that because the design on those plays was horrific. You can't just willy nilly line up for 4th downs against Indiana, they will bury you, as Alabama found out. that's when scheme and design male a difference, and the edge is solidly with Indiana there. If Lanning fails on some of those, the game will turn and then Indiana will be in a position to squeeze the life out of the Ducks. Indiana is too squared away, and we saw way too many chinks in the armor last week from Oregon. They shut Texas Tech out, but Tech(and Morton) not being ready for prime time had as much to do with it as the Ducks did. I like the Hoosiers in this one, something like 27-13.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
27. Ole Miss +3.5 v Miami(FL) (BOL) : This was one of the tougher handicaps, and I thought about taking a pass on this, but I ended up taking the points here in a game that i think is going to come down to the wire. This is a strength on strength situation with the Ole Miss offense against the Miami defense, and then a meh/meh scenario on the other side of the ball for these two teams. Ultimately for me, this was all about the roles. I think you have to play the dog in this game. I liked Miami a ton more as a dog( as they were in the first two playoff games) than I do as a favorite. All of the narratives about Miami, and especially about Cristobal come into play when he's favored. The Ole Miss defense has been just ok this year, but they looked pretty good, especially down the stretch against Georgia, and the Miami offense isn't really all that explosive. I thought the Ole Miss defensive line actually got the better of the play in the 2nd half against Georgia, and although the Miami OL is better than Georgia's, Perkins and Will Echols can hold their own in my opinion. On the other side, Miami has been merciless on defense, especially those two pass rushers, Bain and Mesidor. However, if there's any offense, or in particular QB who can exist against those maniacs, it's probably the Rebels. Trinidad Chambliss hardly ever gets sacked and somehow avoid turnovers in the process. They have several receivers that are tough matchups, and Kewan Lacy will be the best back they've faced in the playoffs, by quite a bit in my opinion. I don't think Miami will be able to run away from Ole Miss in this game unless they get a defensive score or Toney takes back a punt, but Ole Miss is very good on special teams(13th) and as I mentioned, Chambliss has not turned it over(only 3 picks). They've also got a weapon in that kicker Cordiero who was bombing field goals last week with 20 yards to spare while the Miami kicker has been shaky. My only hesitation with Ole Miss is that all of their positive data points have come against the SEC. I'm not trying to be sarcastic when I say that they SEC has not fared well outside of the conference, and it's not just in the bowls. I think the chances are very good that this is close, so more than a FG is very attractive, especially when I think Cristobal has a major bonehead episode left in him this year.
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I want to bet on Ole Miss and have much the same thoughts as you - really like Kewan Lacy and the kicker. I decided to "pass" and see what happens Live.
The talk around the assistant coaches and what they have been doing - or not doing - since they have other duties at LSU has spooked me. I do not know whether any of it is true but the chatter worked has worked on me. I know you do not do totals but I took Under 52 for the smallest wager I make. I hope I am able to join you at some point. As always, thank you

I did make a long shot wager on Ole Miss beats Indiana in Natty just because that's what I want to happen and there's always a chance
 
Br@ssknux said:
28. Indiana -3.5 v Oregon (BOL) : Juice at BOL is shaded to Oregon, so maybe this is still falling? I'm going to be on Indiana regardless, but it might be worth seeing what happens there. On paper this is a close matchup, but in reality, I will be very surprised if Indiana loses this game. Much credence will be given to the first matchup, and it should be, but one difference about this one is that I see a slight edge "mindset" motivation for Oregon. They got handled on their home field by the Hoosiers and you know that no Lanning team is ever going to be lacking in confidence. Their Moby Dick is Indiana and they undoubtedly believe that they can win if they play their game. Indiana has supreme confidence, but I'm thinking their Moby Dick was the Rose Bowl against the storied SEC program last week. It seems like it would be hard to believe that they could conjure up another perfect effort like that one, so it would SEEM LIKE Oregon would have an edge. If Indiana had a mortal coach that is. The Hoosier players are so locked in, and so confident in their process that they rightly believe that they have the blueprint to victory. Oregon could not run the ball on them, at all, in the last matchup, and Oregon is coming off a game that they couldn't run it against Texas Tech either. Cignetti undoubtedly picked up some additional tidbits from that film, and I think the game planning is going to be very skewed in Indiana's favor due to those coordinators having their duties split. Both Cal and Kentucky are picking up transfer portal guys left and right(as is Indiana by the way...Josh Hoover under Cignetti....HOLY SHIT) so they are clearly working two different jobs. You cannot hope to compete against Cignetti half paying attention. Defensively, I think Indiana is going to run on Oregon and the Hoosiers will be able to play action as a result. Dante Moore was running for his life last time, and I can't see how that's going to be any different this time. The kicker for me, however, is the specific Lanning v Cignetti matchup. Oregon went for it 8 times on 4th down against Texas Tech and had to convert 19 third downs. There was no explosiveness at all, and I definitely cannot see Indiana all of the sudden being susceptible to big plays. Oregon converted 4 of the 8 4th downs, but they were lucky to do that because the design on those plays was horrific. You can't just willy nilly line up for 4th downs against Indiana, they will bury you, as Alabama found out. that's when scheme and design male a difference, and the edge is solidly with Alabama there. If Lanning fails on some of those, the game will turn and then Indiana will be in a position to squeeze the life out of the Ducks. Indiana is too squared away, and we saw way too many chinks in the armor last week from Oregon. They shut Texas Tech out, but Tech(and Morton) not being ready for prime time had as much to do with it as the Ducks did. I like the Hoosiers in this one, something like 27-13.
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ALL IN
 
Apparently, Ole Miss's tackling strategy in this game is close your eyes, maniacally run full speed and hope you run into something?
 
Br@ssknux said:
27. Ole Miss +3.5 v Miami(FL) (BOL) : This was one of the tougher handicaps, and I thought about taking a pass on this, but I ended up taking the points here in a game that i think is going to come down to the wire. This is a strength on strength situation with the Ole Miss offense against the Miami defense, and then a meh/meh scenario on the other side of the ball for these two teams. Ultimately for me, this was all about the roles. I think you have to play the dog in this game. I liked Miami a ton more as a dog( as they were in the first two playoff games) than I do as a favorite. All of the narratives about Miami, and especially about Cristobal come into play when he's favored. The Ole Miss defense has been just ok this year, but they looked pretty good, especially down the stretch against Georgia, and the Miami offense isn't really all that explosive. I thought the Ole Miss defensive line actually got the better of the play in the 2nd half against Georgia, and although the Miami OL is better than Georgia's, Perkins and Will Echols can hold their own in my opinion. On the other side, Miami has been merciless on defense, especially those two pass rushers, Bain and Mesidor. However, if there's any offense, or in particular QB who can exist against those maniacs, it's probably the Rebels. Trinidad Chambliss hardly ever gets sacked and somehow avoid turnovers in the process. They have several receivers that are tough matchups, and Kewan Lacy will be the best back they've faced in the playoffs, by quite a bit in my opinion. I don't think Miami will be able to run away from Ole Miss in this game unless they get a defensive score or Toney takes back a punt, but Ole Miss is very good on special teams(13th) and as I mentioned, Chambliss has not turned it over(only 3 picks). They've also got a weapon in that kicker Cordiero who was bombing field goals last week with 20 yards to spare while the Miami kicker has been shaky. My only hesitation with Ole Miss is that all of their positive data points have come against the SEC. I'm not trying to be sarcastic when I say that they SEC has not fared well outside of the conference, and it's not just in the bowls. I think the chances are very good that this is close, so more than a FG is very attractive, especially when I think Cristobal has a major bonehead episode left in him this year.
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Probably should have listened to myself and took a pass on that game, but what is the fun in that???:)
 
Br@ssknux said:
Probably should have listened to myself and took a pass on that game, but what is the fun in that???:)
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Very tough beat there! Not sure how they don't call PI on that last play? Ole Miss did a great job of hanging in the game considering the overwhelming TOP advtg for Miami. 87 plays to 58. Chambliss is a kid I can always root for, what a nice player.
 
Timh said:
Very tough beat there! Not sure how they don't call PI on that last play? Ole Miss did a great job of hanging in the game considering the overwhelming TOP advtg for Miami. 87 plays to 58. Chambliss is a kid I can always root for, what a nice player.
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The difference in the game was Ole Miss's tackling/pursuit. If they tackled merely poorly instead of horrifically, I think they would have won without that final drive having to be the difference. Also, I want kind of counting on a Cristobal bonehead mistake, which never really came.
 
Br@ssknux said:
The difference in the game was Ole Miss's tackling/pursuit. If they tackled merely poorly instead of horrifically, I think they would have won without that final drive having to be the difference. Also, I want kind of counting on a Cristobal bonehead mistake, which never really came.
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No you were right. The flea flicker, etc


We coulda had a better offensive game plan. Run 100 times
 
28. National Championship: Indiana -8.5 @Miami(FL) (BOL) : It's definitely alarming to see that just about 100% of all observers like Indiana in this game, but how can you go against them at this point? I can see a case for Miami for several reasons, mostly because I'm a contrarian by nature, but also because they've got a defense that wreaks havoc on teams, they've had a penchant for being able to run the ball lately, and they're playing on their home field. We can also agree that in most cases, this is obvious evidence of an inflated line due to a race to the window from anyone who watched the Hoosiers in their last two games. We could also ask, isn't the mortal Indiana team that we saw at Penn State and at Iowa due to show up at some point? Also, doesn't it matter that Miami beat the Ohio State team that Indiana played to a standstill in the Big ten title game? Spoiler Alert: Probably not. Miami has run the ball very well, but I don't think there's much chance that the Canes will run it on Indiana, just like Oregon couldn't and just like Alabama couldn't dream of. That means Carson Beck has to be masterful, and although he can look good against defenses like Ole Miss(and he did), he is typically very pedestrian against good defenses, and this is a legitimately good, physical, expertly coached defense. Beck probably has one or two INT worthy throws in him in this game, and Indiana will not let him get away with it. I would make the case that most of Miami's success against an average Ole Miss defense came as a result of the Rebs horrific tackling, as they took ungodly bad angles and lost all concept of containment the entire game. If the Ole Miss defense took the approach that Indiana will be taking in this game, Miami probably would have been eliminated last week. They will have to earn every yard against Indiana, and I don't think they're good enough on that side to score enough to cover this. Miami's defense is great, but they are not all that healthy. 2 of their stud linemen, Moten and especially Mesidor are going to play, but they are clearly hurt. Also, in the secondary OJ Frederique is banged up but is probably going to play. I don't like the idea of Miami trying to stop this Indiana offense at less than 100%. The strength of the Miami pass defense is almost all based on their pass rush, and if they don't get to Mendoza, they're in trouble. Those 3 IU receivers (Surratt, Cooper and Becker) are all playmakers and the Canes secondary can be had even when healthy. The Indiana OL has been elite in the playoff, and there's no doubt that their staff knows how vital it is to handle that pass rush. You think they might have a plan for that? Indiana also has a sizable edge in special teams and although the Miami coordinators are very good, we're still talking about Cignetti v Cristobal. Even if Miami competes well and takes Indiana deep into the 4th quarter(which I doubt), this game could get over a score with a late TD. I think Miami will probably fare better than Oregon and Alabama did, but not 25 points better. There's just no way I'm getting in front of this freight train. This looks like a 34-13 type game to me.
 
18-9 for the bowl season with the championship game pending. If Indiana can handle things, that'll be better than 2 out of 3 for the bowl season. Regular season stunk but bowl season can be like that one good shot on 18 after a bad round. It keeps you coming back! Thanks to everyone who hopped in this year. It was a lot of fun as always!
 
Br@ssknux said:
18-9 for the bowl season with the championship game pending. If Indiana can handle things, that'll be better than 2 out of 3 for the bowl season. Regular season stunk but bowl season can be like that one good shot on 18 after a bad round. It keeps you coming back! Thanks to everyone who hopped in this year. It was a lot of fun as always!
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Great job Brass!

I knew you would crush bowl season.
 
Br@ssknux said:
18-9 for the bowl season with the championship game pending. If Indiana can handle things, that'll be better than 2 out of 3 for the bowl season. Regular season stunk but bowl season can be like that one good shot on 18 after a bad round. It keeps you coming back! Thanks to everyone who hopped in this year. It was a lot of fun as always!
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Most were won the way you expected as well. I always liked winning the $ regardless of how but it always felt better when my reasoning played out on the field.

Thanks for all the time you put in with the writeups.
 
The ball bounces weird and shit happens....but things you can count on are Cristobal being out coached and Miami being more undisciplined. There's really no way those 2 things don't happen. Of course the Canes could win despite that.....but betting on that is silly.

GL Brass
 
Expertly coached defense couldn't agree more! Indiana does some really unique things with their DL including stunting, screening lineman for delayed rush and gap filling, and dropping off in coverage. They are great at keeping an opposing teams OL off balance with their changing schemes. Indiana as a whole has incredible positional coaching for all of their units. No doubt they will have a good plan to offset the Miami pass rush (i.e draws and screens) and Mendoza will be able to adjust and get the ball out quickly. I like this play! BOL Brass and TY for all your outstanding effort during the season!
 
Timh said:
Expertly coached defense couldn't agree more! Indiana does some really unique things with their DL including stunting, screening lineman for delayed rush and gap filling, and dropping off in coverage. They are great at keeping an opposing teams OL off balance with their changing schemes. Indiana as a whole has incredible positional coaching for all of their units. No doubt they will have a good plan to offset the Miami pass rush (i.e draws and screens) and Mendoza will be able to adjust and get the ball out quickly. I like this play! BOL Brass and TY for all your outstanding effort during the season!
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Back at ya Timmy. Thanks for all you contribute!
 
RetroRetrovk said:
Most were won the way you expected as well. I always liked winning the $ regardless of how but it always felt better when my reasoning played out on the field.

Thanks for all the time you put in with the writeups.
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Could not agree more with this. Thanks VK
 
Note in addition to injuries that you mentioned above, X. Lucas Miami DB will miss first half due to targeting ejection in semifinals and DB Damari Brown is ?, and starting TE Elijah Lofton is out.
 
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Timh said:
Note in addition to injuries that you mentioned above, X. Lucas Miami DB will miss first half due to targeting ejection in semifinals and DB Damari Brown is ?, and starting TE Elijah Lofton is out.
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Thanks Timmy, I meant to mention Lucas so thanks for that. They haven't had Brown in any of their 3 playoff games so I didn't think that was that much of a big deal. Lofton is going to hurt them too. GL my man!
 
Fantastic write- ups all year, Br@ss- and bowl season was the big payoff for you and us. I agree with the Indiana play tonight, and your write- up does a better job of explaining my thoughts than even I could have done myself. Ha! Then, as if that wasn't good enough, Timmy and Frank C. chime in with additional value items. This thread is top notch.
 
sevenpointroaddog said:
Fantastic write- ups all year, Br@ss- and bowl season was the big payoff for you and us. I agree with the Indiana play tonight, and your write- up does a better job of explaining my thoughts than even I could have done myself. Ha! Then, as if that wasn't good enough, Timmy and Frank C. chime in with additional value items. This thread is top notch.
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Thanks SPRD. Really appreciate you sharing your thoughts so kindly. I hope you'll always be in here!

I've actually got a pretty sizable future from September on Indiana national champs. It's a great hedge opportunity, but I still haven't done it (even at +8) because I'm skeptical the Canes can hang, especially with the secondary issues.
 
Br@ssknux said:
I've actually got a pretty sizable future from September on Indiana national champs. It's a great hedge opportunity, but I still haven't done it (even at +8) because I'm skeptical the Canes can hang, especially with the secondary issues.
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Oh my. nice.

Share your skepticism.
 
I ended up hedging a little when it got to +15 at halftime. Good job by the 'Canes. they almost pulled that off outright. These is no team in college football that can handle that pass rush. The thing that surprised me, however, was Miami's ability to move the ball on the Indiana defense after halftime. Canes had 273 yards in the second half!

Cignetti was actually mortal in this game. Bad clock management at the end of the 1st half and then a really cowardly decision to run rather than try to end the game on the 3rd and 6 late in the 4th quarter. The only benefit of playing conservative there was making Miami use it's final timeout, and with 1:45 left, Miami wasn't going to run out of time. You have the Heisman winner who has been clutch for you all game and you take the ball out of his hands for no real benefit? Do not agree with that call.

I'm nitpicking though. Unbelievable season for the Hoosiers and there exists no better coaching job in sports history in my opinion.
 
Br@ssknux said:
I ended up hedging a little when it got to +15 at halftime. Good job by the 'Canes. they almost pulled that off outright. These is no team in college football that can handle that pass rush. The thing that surprised me, however, was Miami's ability to move the ball on the Indiana defense after halftime. Canes had 273 yards in the second half!

Cignetti was actually mortal in this game. Bad clock management at the end of the 1st half and then a really cowardly decision to run rather than try to end the game on the 3rd and 6 late in the 4th quarter. The only benefit of playing conservative there was making Miami use it's final timeout, and with 1:45 left, Miami wasn't going to run out of time. You have the Heisman winner who has been clutch for you all game and you take the ball out of his hands for no real benefit? Do not agree with that call.

I'm nitpicking though. Unbelievable season for the Hoosiers and there exists no better coaching job in sports history in my opinion.
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Perfectly stated!

He's a great coach who had a subpar game but still for the dub.
 
Great job Brass! I did not understand Cignetti at end of first half, first it appeared he was willing to just run out the clock and then when they did hit a play to midfield they just let the clock run. At the end of the game, it was basically the same situation as earlier when they decided to go for it vs. FG and Mendoza ran it in on the qb draw. I agree they should have run a play there and get a first down and lock up the game. Especially in light of the fact that on previous possession for Miami that they just mowed down the field for a score. I thought at that point, Indiana D was getting worn down and they weren't getting any pass rush or pressure on Beck. Tough call overall and I i guess Cignetti felt like up 6 would ensure they needed a TD to beat them and it would be difficult with no timeouts left. The special teams play of Indiana turned out to be the difference. Terrible refs also certainly did not help Indiana, when there were obvious personal foul penalties which should have been called that could have lead to more points. Tough to lose the side bet there, I was fortunate to have teaser and ML that kept me on the plus side. Sorry to the see the season end, really enjoyed it!
 
Timh said:
Great job Brass! I did not understand Cignetti at end of first half, first it appeared he was willing to just run out the clock and then when they did hit a play to midfield they just let the clock run. At the end of the game, it was basically the same situation as earlier when they decided to go for it vs. FG and Mendoza ran it in on the qb draw. I agree they should have run a play there and get a first down and lock up the game. Especially in light of the fact that on previous possession for Miami that they just mowed down the field for a score. I thought at that point, Indiana D was getting worn down and they weren't getting any pass rush or pressure on Beck. Tough call overall and I i guess Cignetti felt like up 6 would ensure they needed a TD to beat them and it would be difficult with no timeouts left. The special teams play of Indiana turned out to be the difference. Terrible refs also certainly did not help Indiana, when there were obvious personal foul penalties which should have been called that could have lead to more points. Tough to lose the side bet there, I was fortunate to have teaser and ML that kept me on the plus side. Sorry to the see the season end, really enjoyed it!
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Thanks Timmy! I deserved to lose the side, I don't feel bad about that. Miami played them to a standstill IMO, and you could make the case that they had the better of the LOS by a significant margin. Great season, can't wait to see how these rosters shake out. I don't like how it happens, but all we can do is let the chips fall and analyze it.
 
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