Bowl Season 2025-2026 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

Brass, great bowl season thus far. I think hawaii has the personnel to be competitive here. They are a much better team on the island than away from it. The cal qb gives me some worries. Think an over could be worth a look to, but alot of these bowls have gone under. The total has dropped 3 points so the market doesnt agree with me. But i prefer the side.

I hit this at open and paid a few extra cents to get +3 and i nibbled some ml at +124. So im happy with my tickets.

Best of luck the rest of the bowl season!
 
slim5150 said:
Brass, great bowl season thus far. I think hawaii has the personnel to be competitive here. They are a much better team on the island than away from it. The cal qb gives me some worries. Think an over could be worth a look to, but alot of these bowls have gone under. The total has dropped 3 points so the market doesnt agree with me. But i prefer the side.

I hit this at open and paid a few extra cents to get +3 and i nibbled some ml at +124. So im happy with my tickets.

Best of luck the rest of the bowl season!
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Thanks Slim! BOL. Hope you hit the total.
 
I was very tempted to lay it with Northwestern here but this line has hovered right at 10.5 for a long time, and although I really like the Cats in this game, more than 10 is just too much for me to lay. I like the Cats because CMU is a good matchup for them. Offensively, the Chips are a plodding running team, but when they had success, they got big plays in the passing game. Northwestern's disciplined nature makes them quite good against big passing plays, which should neutralize Labas, and they have been good against running QBs, which is what backup Angel Flores is. Offensively, Northwestern should be able to run all day on the Chips. I really like Caleb Komolafe, and this CMU rush defense struggled to rank 97th against a bunch of pretty bad rush offenses. They've faced 5 offenses ranked 131st, 130th, 118th, 115th and 113th in rush offense, so they'll likely have a very hard time against this NW front and Komolafe and hopefully Himon. CMU also lags way behind Northwestern on special teams, so that should make a difference. Ultimately, 10.5 is a lot of points because the Cats seldom blow people out, so I'll hold off, but if this gets to 9.5, I 'll be on it.
 
12.Rate Bowl: New Mexico +2 v Minnesota (BR) : On the season, Minnesota has been outgained by opponents by a full yard on a per play basis. That's a lot. You would see that in the case of a major conference cellar dweller, but seldom do you see it corresponding to a bowl team with a 7-5 record. Minnesota had several games that they won but certainly were outplayed, most notably in home games against Purdue (outgained 456-262) and Michigan State (outgained 467-301). Those teams combined to go 1-17 in the Big Ten. They rank 123rd offensively both in yards per rush and yards per pass attempt, and they weren't strong on defense either, as those two games would indicate against mediocre at best offenses. New Mexico has been resourceful all year under first year coach Jason Eck, and It's usually profitable to back first year coaches in bowls because things are usually on the up in those cases. I think it is here. Neother team, it appears is going to be affected significantly by opt outs, so we should see a pretty representative effort out of both. n paper, New Mexico has played a weaker schedule, but for a Big Ten team, Minnesota played a pretty weak schedule itself(56th per Sagarin). New Mexico should have strong edges in several areas. Minnesota is highly unlikely to be able to run on the Lobos and the Gopher pass defense has given up gobs of yards and the Lobos rank 32nd in yards per pass attempt. My only hesitations with this game are as follows: First, PJ Fleck has been money in bowls, going 6-0 since he's been at Minnesota (5-1 ATS). Second, Jack Layne, despite consistently having guys wide open, finds ways to be inefficient, either by missing open guys or holding the ball too long and taking sacks. One of the very few things the Gophers do well is rush the passer, so Layne will be on the spot. I think there's more than enough between these two teams to overcome it even if he has some rock headed moments. This is a very attractive team to bet on based on the coaching acumen of Eck and the positive vibes in the program, not to mention the solid performance they've shown all year. I like the Lobos to be the better team here.
 
Taking a pass on the First Responder Bowl between FIU and UTSA. Both teams have a lot of opt outs but I think they're going to hurt FIU more than they do UTSA. If forced to make a play here I would probably lay the 5-6 with UTSA, but I definitely don't have a strong enough conviction to recommend it. UTSA has a ton of guys out on the defensive end, but their defense was terrible most of the year, so it can't get much worse. Also, despite their bad metrics, they were 20th in the country on 3rd down, which indicates a solid scheme and pretty good play calling on that side of the ball, which isn't surprising given Traylor's track record there. There's some indication that the depth at UTSA would be better than that of FIU. The most impactful opt outs are in the secondary, which was a major strength for the Panthers. There aren't any opt outs(from what I can tell) on the offensive side of the ball for UTSA, and they look to have edges there as a result. Lean to UTSA, but that's all.
 
Not gonna play the Military Bowl between Pitt(-10ish) and East Carolina. If these teams were playing during the season I would be looking to back ECU. Back that is far from the case here. Pitt has some opt outs but ECU has even more damaging ones, especially QB Katin Houser. When you have a bowl dog, there are thing that need to be in place. Even if there are opt outs, if there are reasonable replacements that look like they could have success, you can roll the dice and in many cases, the guy stepping in performs well. However, in some cases there's nobody. That appears to be the case here with ECU. Their backups at QB are the nomadic Mike White, who's been everywhere. Vandy, Mississippi State, Northwestern and now ECU and with nothing accomplished at any of them other than a seat on the bench. The other option is true freshman Chaston Ditta, who played sparingly and didn't do much in those limited opportunities. ECU also has some hallmarks of a team that might be unmotivated, as they are returning to the same bowl they played in last year against their rival(NC State). I can't imagine that they are motivated to do it again, and Pitt has some things they do defensively that would cause problems for a weak QB. Having said all of that, Pitt would see, to be the play, but they have opt outs too and I just don't have any interest laying that.
 
13. Pinstripe Bowl: Clemson -2.5 v Penn State (BOL) : One thing that's kind of nice about teams from power conferences facing off in a bowl is that the fan sites are still covering the teams pretty extensively. As a result, you can find updated depth charts that give you some clarity about who's suiting up. Both of these teams have a lot of opt outs but it makes sense sometimes to acknowledge who IS in fact playing. Penn State is missing a lot of guys on defense, but most of their offensive guys are playing, including all of their receivers and Kaetron Allen. Clemson is missing guys on defense as well, but just about everyone that will be in the starting lineup on that side of the ball has played a lot of snaps and grade out ok. Offensively, their top receiver, their running backs, most of their OL and QB Klubnik are all expected to play. Clemson has looked pretty good coming down the stretch, winning rather easily at South Carolina and beating Louisville and Florida State before that. They also had the Duke game stolen from them, having outplayed the Blue Devils pretty severely. The culture in my opinion looks a little stronger with Clemson, as the coordinators at PSU are either gone or with one foot out the door. When you match these teams up, I show Clemson with edges in most categories, and one area that they aren't(Clemson rush offense vs PSU rush defense) I have a feeling Randall and Gideon Davidson are going to run well on the Penn State defense. I've liked Grunkmeyer at QB for Penn State recently, but he was playing some weak defenses there at the end. Even with guys missing, this is a legit defense he'll be facing and they've been very good on 3rd down all year. I also think Klubnik will have some success as he has his #1 receiver and the Clemson OL was pretty solid in pass protection this year. I think Clemson was a little better than their perception this year and I feel like they'll be in a little better headspace than Penn State in this one.
 
Man, I'll tell you what: If Jason Eck gets a competent QB who can throw the ball downfield effectively, the Lobos are going to be seriously good. The fact that they went 9-3 with Jack Layne stumbling around back there with his noodle arm is testament to how good their scheme is.
 
Br@ssknux said:
Not gonna play the Military Bowl between Pitt(-10ish) and East Carolina. If these teams were playing during the season I would be looking to back ECU. Back that is far from the case here. Pitt has some opt outs but ECU has even more damaging ones, especially QB Katin Houser. When you have a bowl dog, there are thing that need to be in place. Even if there are opt outs, if there are reasonable replacements that look like they could have success, you can roll the dice and in many cases, the guy stepping in performs well. However, in some cases there's nobody. That appears to be the case here with ECU. Their backups at QB are the nomadic Mike White, who's been everywhere. Vandy, Mississippi State, Northwestern and now ECU and with nothing accomplished at any of them other than a seat on the bench. The other option is true freshman Chaston Ditta, who played sparingly and didn't do much in those limited opportunities. ECU also has some hallmarks of a team that might be unmotivated, as they are returning to the same bowl they played in last year against their rival(NC State). I can't imagine that they are motivated to do it again, and Pitt has some things they do defensively that would cause problems for a weak QB. Having said all of that, Pitt would see, to be the play, but they have opt outs too and I just don't have any interest laying that.
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I bit on Pitt 1h -5.5 figuring ECU is really going to have trouble establishing much offensively with their attrition etc. and lack of talent and experience at the qb position. Nard dog is the antichrist for me though....
 
Br@ssknux said:
Man, I'll tell you what: If Jason Eck gets a competent QB who can throw the ball downfield effectively, the Lobos are going to be seriously good. The fact that they went 9-3 with Jack Layne stumbling around back there with his noodle arm is testament to how good their scheme is.
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And Lindsey has pigeon shit on his helmet too....
 
Br@ssknux said:
Man, I'll tell you what: If Jason Eck gets a competent QB who can throw the ball downfield effectively, the Lobos are going to be seriously good. The fact that they went 9-3 with Jack Layne stumbling around back there with his noodle arm is testament to how good their scheme is.
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Yes. Sir. He isn't good. He was serviceable earlier in the year. But that SDSU game he played just like this.
 
14. Fenway Bowl: Army -7.5 v UConn (BOL): If you want to make money, bet on service academies in bowl games. Since 2017, Army, Navy and Air Force are 11-1 straight up and ATS in bowl games. Why? Mostly because you will never run into a situation where they aren't more motivated than their opponent, and they almost never have to deal with opt outs or coaching changes. In this one we have a similar story. UConn's Jim Mora Jr is off to Colorado State and Joe Fagnano, who had a great year and was the driving force for UConn's success this year, is steadfastly refusing to play in this game despite several teammates begging him to reconsider. They also will be missing 1,000 yard rusher Cam Edwards and 4 starting offensive linemen. Even if they had all those guys, I'd still be leaning to Army to win this game, although laying this amount of points might be questionable. UConn had a great year, but their schedule was very weak, ranking 132nd per Sagarin, which is significantly weaker than Army's. In addition, the UConn defense had all kinds of trouble stopping the run, and they got bludgeoned on the ground in their games against Air Force and Rice, the two teams that most closely resembles the attack they'll see from Army. Fagnano's absence leaves them extremely short handed at QB, and we still don't really know who's going to be playing for them. Army will give UConn 100% effort, and with their track record(and that of teams like them) I find it impossible to go against them.
 
CPA-hole said:
Yes. Sir. He isn't good. He was serviceable earlier in the year. But that SDSU game he played just like this.
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He can't throw downfield, but it's the subtle stuff too. He's late on throws, doesn't feel pressure, throws behind guys even on screen passes which kills the timing of the play...he's just, as you say, not good.
 
Br@ssknux said:
He can't throw downfield, but it's the subtle stuff too. He's late on throws, doesn't feel pressure, throws behind guys even on screen passes which kills the timing of the play...he's just, as you say, not good.
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He looked the same VS SDSU. They got him seeing ghosts. Smith is wrecking the o-line.
 
Goes back to your QB evaluation with NMEX, deadeye dick the missed plays, late etc..killed them in the explosive play market.
 
15. Pop Tarts Bowl: Georgia Tech +4(-114) v BYU (BOL) : This one is a refreshing one in that there are virtually no opt outs for either team and the only question about personnel is as a result of injuries. LJ Martin is the major question for BYU, but I'm assuming he plays. If he doesn't that would be a big blow to the Cougs because he was a huge part of their offense. These really are two evenly matched teams and it looks to me like both offenses are going to have a pretty significant edge against the respective defense. Georgia Tech will be without OC and play caller Buster Faulkner, who is off to Florida in the same role. Head Coach Brent Key seems unconcerned about that, and although Faulkner is undoubtedly a major asset, at this stage I'm sure they'll manage for one game. The Tech offense was elite this year. They ranked 11th in yards per play, were top 25 in both rushing and passing on a yards per play excelled on 3rd down and didn't give up hardly any sacks. This will be Haynes King's swan song, and he definitely has been a top notch QB. BYu is solid on both sides of the ball, but they are very reliant on Bear Bachmeier's ability to run. He's recovering from an ankle injury he sustained in the Big 12 title game and the Cougs were screwed after that because he could not run and his passing is not a strong part of his game if the run isn't leveraged. Martin will probably have his way with the GT defense, but Tech has always been very resourceful as a dog(13-5 ATS in that role since he took over). I don't see either of these teams blowing the other out, and it looks like a 50/50 game in my opinion, so I will definitely take more than a FG with an offense that has moved the ball on just about everyone they've played.
 
Not gonna play the Arizona Bowl with Miami(OH) and Fresno. Miami has been money as a bowl team under Martin, but their best offensive player(stud receiver Kam Perry) and their best defensive player (pass rusher Adam Trick) are both not playing. Their QB situation is dire with both Hesson and the freshman kid Gotkowski having cost me money in recent weeks. Fresno is alright but their offense is bordering on pathetic and I'm not sure who they're planning on playing at QB. Hard pass.
 
New Mexico Bowl ends up being no play. Curent line UNT -6 or so v SDSU. North Texas had a great year, and was close to qualifying for the playoff, and here they are dropping all the way to the New Mexico Bowl. I'm sure they are less than enthused, and their coach and QB are on the move to greener pastures. This was a very good offense, and not only because of the scheme and QB Drew Mestamaker who is in the portal and not playing in this game.(EDIT: It looks like there are some reports saying Mestamaker is going to play in this one and then make his move for the portal on January2nd or whenever the portal opens. That actually makes more sense considering the spread. Sorry I misread this one). They also have RB Caleb Hawkins who ran for 1400 yards and WR Wyatt Young, who caught 70 balls for 1300 yards and 11 TDs. The Green Mean also have to contend with the San Diego State defense that was consistently the best group of 5 defense in the country and is significantly better than any defense they've played in the past couple months. SDSU will be missing a couple guys and their DC who is off to Nebraska, but this was a very good defense and they have plenty of their guys playing in this one. QB Jalen Donegal is injured and out for the Aztecs, but he was struggling terribly at the end of the year, and it might be a blessing in disguise that he's out because they'll be playing former Central Michigan QB Bert Emmanuel who is a run only guy. The Aztecs ran the ball pretty well all year, ranking 49th in yards per rush and topping 200 yards rushing 6 times, including once against Boise near the end of the year. North Texas is completely unable to stop the run, having been gashed for 200 plus rushing yards 7 times and ranking 115th in the country against the run. It's always a great combination to have a defensive team that looks like they'll be able to run the ball getting a significant number of points. In addition, the Green Mean has terrible special teams and will be at a major disadvantage in this matchup as they rank 125th per FEI and SDSU ranks 20th. SDSU has the #1 ranked pass offense in the country on a yards per attempt basis. Although UNT has a great pass offense, without HC Morris and the starting QB, having a representative game to their season against the #1 pass D in the country seems a tall order. With more clarity on pretty much all the playmakers being in for UNT and several defensive guys out for SDSU, I'm getting off this. I do think SDSU has a great shot to cover because again, this will be the best defense UNT has seen even with the missing players, there's just too much uncertainty for the Aztecs to trust them here.

Late EDIT. GOT OFF THIS GAME.
 
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Can't make a play on the Gator Bowl (MIzzou v Virginia.). I like both of these teams. I know a lot of people are skeptical of Virginia, but everything Tony Elliott has said indicates they are excited to play in this game despite blowing a shot at the playoff, and they have a lot of things that they do well as a team. However, Mizzou reoresents a tough matchup for them because they are a step up defensively over what Virginia has seen, and Ahmad Hardy is a load to stop on the ground. Mizzou, however is extremely thin in the passing game and if UVa finds a way to be competitive against the run(they ranked 20th on the season) Mizzou might find it tough sledding offensively as well. Gun to my head I'd take UVa +4 or more, but that's assuming they have ALL of their guys, and that's not a given.
 
Timh said:
Latest info is DM def out at this point?
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I checked again, and I saw that he might be playing, actually seeing some saying he will play. I thought he was out for sure. Thanks for catching Timmy! Gonna have to rethink that. Updated that writeup.

EDIT Screw it, Looks like both starting corners are going to be out now for SDSU, gonna get off that one. Will leave body of write up up there, but not recommending it.
 
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16. Texas Bowl: Houston pk vs LSU (BOL) : I have this game capped as pretty dead even on paper, and that's considering the season long numbers for both teams. LSU is significantly worse on offense than they were earlier in the year as Michael Van Buren has not shown any ability to consistently move the ball. In their last 5 games they only cracked 300 yards in 2 of them, Western Kentucky and Arkansas, 2 of the worst defenses in the country. Houston has been pretty solid this year under a very good defensive staff, and the Cougars should be motivated to make a statement here in their home town against a traditional heavyweight, who is not a heavyweight this year. Offensively, Connor Weigmann makes Houston viable. He has a good track record throwing the ball, but his legs are what has made him dangerous in recent outings. He ran for 100+ last time out against Baylor and ran for 11 TDs on the year. Plenty of players are opting out for LSU including LB Whit Weeks, their best 2 secondary guys in Delane and Haulcy, Harold Perkins, Jack Pyburn among others. Most of the guys playing are doing so to be evaluated by Lane Kiffin, so I'd say this won't look like a connected team. If Frank Wilson can bring this team with this offense together to beat a motivated Houston team that won 9 games this year.
 
Br@ssknux said:
13. Pinstripe Bowl: Clemson -2.5 v Penn State (BOL) : One thing that's kind of nice about teams from power conferences facing off in a bowl is that the fan sites are still covering the teams pretty extensively. As a result, you can find updated depth charts that give you some clarity about who's suiting up. Both of these teams have a lot of opt outs but it makes sense sometimes to acknowledge who IS in fact playing. Penn State is missing a lot of guys on defense, but most of their offensive guys are playing, including all of their receivers and Kaetron Allen. Clemson is missing guys on defense as well, but just about everyone that will be in the starting lineup on that side of the ball has played a lot of snaps and grade out ok. Offensively, their top receiver, their running backs, most of their OL and QB Klubnik are all expected to play. Clemson has looked pretty good coming down the stretch, winning rather easily at South Carolina and beating Louisville and Florida State before that. They also had the Duke game stolen from them, having outplayed the Blue Devils pretty severely. The culture in my opinion looks a little stronger with Clemson, as the coordinators at PSU are either gone or with one foot out the door. When you match these teams up, I show Clemson with edges in most categories, and one area that they aren't(Clemson rush offense vs PSU rush defense) I have a feeling Randall and Gideon Davidson are going to run well on the Penn State defense. I've liked Grunkmeyer at QB for Penn State recently, but he was playing some weak defenses there at the end. Even with guys missing, this is a legit defense he'll be facing and they've been very good on 3rd down all year. I also think Klubnik will have some success as he has his #1 receiver and the Clemson OL was pretty solid in pass protection this year. I think Clemson was a little better than their perception this year and I feel like they'll be in a little better headspace than Penn State in this one.
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In 2023, I thought the bowl situation was like that in 2021 when Clemson covered against Iowa State. Instead, Clemson won but didn't cover against UK (after going 4-0 SU and ATS down the stretch. This year seems to be the same situation as 2023, and I'm me.going to pass on the game.
 
Br@ssknux said:
New Mexico Bowl ends up being no play. Curent line UNT -6 or so v SDSU. North Texas had a great year, and was close to qualifying for the playoff, and here they are dropping all the way to the New Mexico Bowl. I'm sure they are less than enthused, and their coach and QB are on the move to greener pastures. This was a very good offense, and not only because of the scheme and QB Drew Mestamaker who is in the portal and not playing in this game.(EDIT: It looks like there are some reports saying Mestamaker is going to play in this one and then make his move for the portal on January2nd or whenever the portal opens. That actually makes more sense considering the spread. Sorry I misread this one). They also have RB Caleb Hawkins who ran for 1400 yards and WR Wyatt Young, who caught 70 balls for 1300 yards and 11 TDs. The Green Mean also have to contend with the San Diego State defense that was consistently the best group of 5 defense in the country and is significantly better than any defense they've played in the past couple months. SDSU will be missing a couple guys and their DC who is off to Nebraska, but this was a very good defense and they have plenty of their guys playing in this one. QB Jalen Donegal is injured and out for the Aztecs, but he was struggling terribly at the end of the year, and it might be a blessing in disguise that he's out because they'll be playing former Central Michigan QB Bert Emmanuel who is a run only guy. The Aztecs ran the ball pretty well all year, ranking 49th in yards per rush and topping 200 yards rushing 6 times, including once against Boise near the end of the year. North Texas is completely unable to stop the run, having been gashed for 200 plus rushing yards 7 times and ranking 115th in the country against the run. It's always a great combination to have a defensive team that looks like they'll be able to run the ball getting a significant number of points. In addition, the Green Mean has terrible special teams and will be at a major disadvantage in this matchup as they rank 125th per FEI and SDSU ranks 20th. SDSU has the #1 ranked pass offense in the country on a yards per attempt basis. Although UNT has a great pass offense, without HC Morris and the starting QB, having a representative game to their season against the #1 pass D in the country seems a tall order. With more clarity on pretty much all the playmakers being in for UNT and several defensive guys out for SDSU, I'm getting off this. I do think SDSU has a great shot to cover because again, this will be the best defense UNT has seen even with the missing players, there's just too much uncertainty for the Aztecs to trust them here.

Late EDIT. GOT OFF THIS GAME.
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SDSU has played 14 bowl game sin the last 36 seasons, and they are almost never close to the point spread.

ATS wins by 28.5, 25, 17, 11
One push
ATS losses by 3.5, 6, 9, 13.5, 13.5, 13.5, 23
 
Br@ssknux said:
Not gonna play the Military Bowl between Pitt(-10ish) and East Carolina. If these teams were playing during the season I would be looking to back ECU. Back that is far from the case here. Pitt has some opt outs but ECU has even more damaging ones, especially QB Katin Houser. When you have a bowl dog, there are thing that need to be in place. Even if there are opt outs, if there are reasonable replacements that look like they could have success, you can roll the dice and in many cases, the guy stepping in performs well. However, in some cases there's nobody. That appears to be the case here with ECU. Their backups at QB are the nomadic Mike White, who's been everywhere. Vandy, Mississippi State, Northwestern and now ECU and with nothing accomplished at any of them other than a seat on the bench. The other option is true freshman Chaston Ditta, who played sparingly and didn't do much in those limited opportunities. ECU also has some hallmarks of a team that might be unmotivated, as they are returning to the same bowl they played in last year against their rival(NC State). I can't imagine that they are motivated to do it again, and Pitt has some things they do defensively that would cause problems for a weak QB. Having said all of that, Pitt would see, to be the play, but they have opt outs too and I just don't have any interest laying that.
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Narduzzi has never covered as a bowl favorite. Harrell has never coached a bowl game, but he is 5-1 ATS (+17.3 ppg) with 8+ days of rest.
 
Br@ssknux said:
I checked again, and I saw that he might be playing, actually seeing some saying he will play. I thought he was out for sure. Thanks for catching Timmy! Gonna have to rethink that. Updated that writeup.

EDIT Screw it, Looks like both starting corners are going to be out now for SDSU, gonna get off that one. Will leave body of write up up there, but not recommending it.
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Curious on the source for SDSU corners being out. I can't seem to find that info anywhere that I have looked. TY
 
Br@ssknux said:
14. Fenway Bowl: Army -7.5 v UConn (BOL): If you want to make money, bet on service academies in bowl games. Since 2017, Army, Navy and Air Force are 11-1 straight up and ATS in bowl games. Why? Mostly because you will never run into a situation where they aren't more motivated than their opponent, and they almost never have to deal with opt outs or coaching changes.
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Just great points across the board.

Mismatch today.
 
Timh said:
Curious on the source for SDSU corners being out. I can't seem to find that info anywhere that I have looked. TY
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Timmy, that game was such a fiasco as far as figuring out who was in and who wasn't. I can't remember where I saw it, I think one of the AI bots. I don't think Johnson or Phillips ended up playing in the game. What a crazy game that was.
 
I was on the road all day yesterday for various reasons, so I wasn't able to check in here.

Clemson was the wrong side. Didn't get to see a second of the game, but the boxscore didn't look like they had much of a chance.

I caught a little bit of Army. UConn would have needed to torch them through the air to have a shot and with no Fagnano it just wasn't going to happen for them. 368 rushing yards for Army.

Georgia Tech/BYU came down to the 2 point conversion early in the 4th quarter. They miss that, we cover. Also, I was begging King to scramble at the end rather than just forcing himself to score the winner from 20 yards out. Also, any kind of points for Tech in the second half would have been nice.

Good job Houston offense. I was surprised how well LSU moved the ball on them, mostly due to big plays (Van Buren more than 10 yards per attempt!!). Connors stuck with it and was able to break a couple against the LSU D. Good job by Weigmann too.

10-5-1 thus far in bowl season. Might not have anything until NYE, but we'll see. Thanks to everyone for checking in. It's a lot of fun!
 
Br@ssknux said:
Good job Houston offense. I was surprised how well LSU moved the ball on them, mostly due to big plays (Van Buren more than 10 yards per attempt!!). Connors stuck with it and was able to break a couple against the LSU D. Good job by Weigmann too.
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I was surprised LSU played with that much interest in the 2H but, then again, the game was big for Frank Wilson and the team showed as such. Weigman was really good - he's just night and day since his disastrous last game at A&M a year ago. He made some big throws last night.
 
Br@ssknux said:
I was on the road all day yesterday for various reasons, so I wasn't able to check in here.

Clemson was the wrong side. Didn't get to see a second of the game, but the boxscore didn't look like they had much of a chance.

I caught a little bit of Army. UConn would have needed to torch them through the air to have a shot and with no Fagnano it just wasn't going to happen for them. 368 rushing yards for Army.

Georgia Tech/BYU came down to the 2 point conversion early in the 4th quarter. They miss that, we cover. Also, I was begging King to scramble at the end rather than just forcing himself to score the winner from 20 yards out. Also, any kind of points for Tech in the second half would have been nice.

Good job Houston offense. I was surprised how well LSU moved the ball on them, mostly due to big plays (Van Buren more than 10 yards per attempt!!). Connors stuck with it and was able to break a couple against the LSU D. Good job by Weigmann too.

10-5-1 thus far in bowl season. Might not have anything until NYE, but we'll see. Thanks to everyone for checking in. It's a lot of fun!
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Would love your thoughts on TN/IL if you get some time and have any!
 
Not playing the CC/LT game, whatever bowl that is, and I won't be on the Sun Belt conference game early tomorrow either.

Regarding Coastal, that team was mostly atrocious all year, but the only success they had was when they installed Illini reject Samari Collier at QB, and he actually turned into their entire offense with his running ability, which somehow got them bowl eligible. He got hurt late and they turned back into a pumpkin. I assumed he was out for the year, but it looks like he might be well enough to play in this one, so who knows? LT is also on their backup QB Trey Kukuk, so they aren't anything great on offense either. Gun to head I'd probably take the points assuming Collier plays, but otherwise I have no feel for this game.

Georgia Southern and Appy State are the early game tomorrow, and to be blunt, I have no interest. I didn't even look at it, nor will I. BOL on that one.
 
Br@ssknux said:
Not playing the CC/LT game, whatever bowl that is, and I won't be on the Sun Belt conference game early tomorrow either.

Regarding Coastal, that team was mostly atrocious all year, but the only success they had was when they installed Illini reject Samari Collier at QB, and he actually turned into their entire offense with his running ability, which somehow got them bowl eligible. He got hurt late and they turned back into a pumpkin. I assumed he was out for the year, but it looks like he might be well enough to play in this one, so who knows? LT is also on their backup QB Trey Kukuk, so they aren't anything great on offense either. Gun to head I'd probably take the points assuming Collier plays, but otherwise I have no feel for this game.

Georgia Southern and Appy State are the early game tomorrow, and to be blunt, I have no interest. I didn't even look at it, nor will I. BOL on that one.
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Wisdom
 
No official writeup on the Music City Bowl as I've held off on allowing bias to seep in on Illini games. Here's my take on it.

Both teams will be missing guys. It looks like Tennessee will be hit harder than Illinois since Chris Brazzell will be missing as well as CB Colton Hood, pass rusher Joshua Josephs and LB Arion Carter, but as far as I can tell it's only those 4. Illinois is missing big ones. LT JC Davis, who is their best offensive lineman and LB Gabe Jacas who led the Big Ten in sacks in the regular season are opting out. They'll both be drafted. Jacas is a stud, but I think Davis is the bigger loss. Rather than upset continuity on the rest of the line, they are keeping everything intact and starting Nathan Knapik at LT, who has taken a grand total of 7 snaps on the year after transferring from Idaho, and he hardly played there either. Maybe the Illinois staff knows something about him, but that is a major risk to take against a pass rush that can get to the QB. Even with Davis, the Illinois OL struggled with pressure. Tennessee's defense hasn't been very good and they played about as weak a schedule as you can in the SEC, so Illinois will probably be able to move the ball on them, but they'll get some negative plays for sure. Illinois has had a hard time stopping any passing offenses with pulse this year, and Tennessee qualifies as that for sure even without Brazzell. I should also mention that starting safety Matthew Bailey had shoulder surgery so he is also out, but they do have some depth back there.

Ultimately I do like the Illini's mindset. They are motivated and most of their guys will be playing. Tennessee I assume will be up for it also to some extent, but I'm not sure they care much about playing the Illini. Both offenses should have the edge, but I don't think the quick passing game is a good matchup for the Illini and I think the Vols will have a major scheme advantage with Heupel v Aaron Henry, Illinois DC. Illini will have some confidence because they beat a significantly better SEC team last year in South Carolina, but I don't think this defense has it in them to get consistent stops. Altmyer will have to be at his best in order for Illinois to win, and I think he can do that, but I still think the Vols might have too much offensively for a consistently shaky Illini defense here.
 
Br@ssknux said:
No official writeup on the Music City Bowl as I've held off on allowing bias to seep in on Illini games. Here's my take on it.

Both teams will be missing guys. It looks like Tennessee will be hit harder than Illinois since Chris Brazzell will be missing as well as CB Colton Hood, pass rusher Joshua Josephs and LB Arion Carter, but as far as I can tell it's only those 4. Illinois is missing big ones. LT JC Davis, who is their best offensive lineman and LB Gabe Jacas who led the Big Ten in sacks in the regular season are opting out. They'll both be drafted. Jacas is a stud, but I think Davis is the bigger loss. Rather than upset continuity on the rest of the line, they are keeping everything intact and starting Nathan Knapik at LT, who has taken a grand total of 7 snaps on the year after transferring from Idaho, and he hardly played there either. Maybe the Illinois staff knows something about him, but that is a major risk to take against a pass rush that can get to the QB. Even with Davis, the Illinois OL struggled with pressure. Tennessee's defense hasn't been very good and they played about as weak a schedule as you can in the SEC, so Illinois will probably be able to move the ball on them, but they'll get some negative plays for sure. Illinois has had a hard time stopping any passing offenses with pulse this year, and Tennessee qualifies as that for sure even without Brazzell. I should also mention that starting safety Matthew Bailey had shoulder surgery so he is also out, but they do have some depth back there.

Ultimately I do like the Illini's mindset. They are motivated and most of their guys will be playing. Tennessee I assume will be up for it also to some extent, but I'm not sure they care much about playing the Illini. Both offenses should have the edge, but I don't think the quick passing game is a good matchup for the Illini and I think the Vols will have a major scheme advantage with Heupel v Aaron Henry, Illinois DC. Illini will have some confidence because they beat a significantly better SEC team last year in South Carolina, but I don't think this defense has it in them to get consistent stops. Altmyer will have to be at his best in order for Illinois to win, and I think he can do that, but I still think the Vols might have too much offensively for a consistently shaky Illini defense here.
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Let’s all remember that this wonderful analysis is not “official.”

Thank you as always
 
17. Alamo Bowl: USC -6.5 v TCU (BOL) : USC has been hit hard by departures, mostly opt outs, including their 3 top receivers, stud WRs Makai Lemon and Jakobi Lane and TE Lake McCree. That happened to them last year too, however, when Zach Branch and Duce Robinson hit the road and set the stage for Lane and Lemon to light up A&M in the Holiday Bowl. The Trojans are also missing guys all over the defense, but they have enough guys who took a lot of snaps to fill things out for them. They also catch a major break because they won't have to deal with TCU QB Josh Hoover, who is transferring and OC Kendall Briles is off to South Carolina, so they'll have some other staff guys calling plays for backup Ken Seals, who has been around forever(Vandy previously) and hasn't done anything to impress anyone other than maybe his Mom. They'll have the rest of their offense, but they couldn't really run the ball and they'll be behind the 8 ball in the passing game with no Hoover. USC on the other hand will have Jaiden Maiava, who will be the best player on the field by quite a bit. He'll miss his receivers but he does have some potential candidates to step up, especially WR Tanook Hines, who led USC with 141 yards on 6 catches and a TD late in the season at Oregon. There's plenty of other talented guys waiting to get a shot behind Lemon and Lane, and TCU was consistently burned this year in the passing game on defense. In addition, RB King Miller will be playing, and he averaged 4.2 yards after contact and had some big games running the ball. Original starting RB Waymond Jordan might also be back as he has been practicing during bowl prep. Despite the losses, I think USC is going to have a lot of success moving the ball on TCU, and I am very skeptical that Seals and a makeshift play calling operation can keep up. There is a huge edge for USC at the QB position, and I think it's worth the TD spread difference.
 
18. Reliaquest Bowl: Iowa +6 (-117) v Vanderbilt (BOL) : Big risk here going against Pavia and the #1 yards per play offense in the country, but I think this game could go either way in a game that might be one of the most enjoyable of all the bowl games to watch. The only notable opt out for either team(from what I can tell) is Vandy TE Eli Stowers. It's a big one, but only one guy sitting out is a nice reflection on both of these teams. Iowa's defense has been very good all year and they've been tested by 3 of the best offenses in the country in Indiana, Oregon and USC. In all three cases, they held those teams to their worst output of the year, especially in the passing game. Vandy is certainly an outstanding offense and they've feasted on subpar defenses, but Iowa is not that. When Vandy faced the toughest defenses on their schedule(Bama and Missouri) they struggled to 333 and 265 total yards in those games. Defensively, Vandy has been alright, but they really struggle on 3rd down, and that's something Iowa has been pretty decent at. They also give up explosives in the run game, and that's something that Iowa actually relies on and has a knack for hitting. This is just a feeling, but it seems like Pavia is due for some bad karma after his behavior coming off the Heisman ceremony. In addition to that, Iowa had a bad showing in their bowl last year, a game that they pissed away a late lead and had the embarrassment of being one of the only Big Ten teams to lay an egg in the bowls and THE only Big Ten team to lose to an SEC foe in the 6 games the conferences matchup up in. I think you'll get a great effort from them in this one, enough to have themselves with chance to win it at the end. They were a whisker from beating Oregon and Indiana, so I don't think they'll be overwhelmed by Vandy, as good as the 'Dores have been this year.
 
Br@ssknux said:
18. Reliaquest Bowl: Iowa +6 (-117) v Vanderbilt (BOL) : Big risk here going against Pavia and the #1 yards per play offense in the country, but I think this game could go either way in a game that might be one of the most enjoyable of all the bowl games to watch. The only notable opt out for either team(from what I can tell) is Vandy TE Eli Stowers. It's a big one, but only one guy sitting out is a nice reflection on both of these teams. Iowa's defense has been very good all year and they've been tested by 3 of the best offenses in the country in Indiana, Oregon and USC. In all three cases, they held those teams to their worst output of the year, especially in the passing game. Vandy is certainly an outstanding offense and they've feasted on subpar defenses, but Iowa is not that. When Vandy faced the toughest defenses on their schedule(Bama and Missouri) they struggled to 333 and 265 total yards in those games. Defensively, Vandy has been alright, but they really struggle on 3rd down, and that's something Iowa has been pretty decent at. They also give up explosives in the run game, and that's something that Iowa actually relies on and has a knack for hitting. This is just a feeling, but it seems like Pavia is due for some bad karma after his behavior coming off the Heisman ceremony. In addition to that, Iowa had a bad showing in their bowl last year, a game that they pissed away a late lead and had the embarrassment of being one of the only Big Ten teams to lay an egg in the bowls and THE only Big Ten team to lose to an SEC foe in the 6 games the conferences matchup up in. I think you'll get a great effort from them in this one, enough to have themselves with chance to win it at the end. They were a whisker from beating Oregon and Indiana, so I don't think they'll be overwhelmed by Vandy, as good as the 'Dores have been this year.
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gotta love Iowa with the points, of course I damn near always play them when I can get close to a td. Pretty confident Iowa d is good enough to take away the qb run game and still not get torched thru the air. Seems to me Iowa outta be able to score 20 which I think be more than enough to cover if not win.
 
Br@ssknux said:
I was on the road all day yesterday for various reasons, so I wasn't able to check in here.

Clemson was the wrong side. Didn't get to see a second of the game, but the boxscore didn't look like they had much of a chance.

I caught a little bit of Army. UConn would have needed to torch them through the air to have a shot and with no Fagnano it just wasn't going to happen for them. 368 rushing yards for Army.

Georgia Tech/BYU came down to the 2 point conversion early in the 4th quarter. They miss that, we cover. Also, I was begging King to scramble at the end rather than just forcing himself to score the winner from 20 yards out. Also, any kind of points for Tech in the second half would have been nice.

Good job Houston offense. I was surprised how well LSU moved the ball on them, mostly due to big plays (Van Buren more than 10 yards per attempt!!). Connors stuck with it and was able to break a couple against the LSU D. Good job by Weigmann too.

10-5-1 thus far in bowl season. Might not have anything until NYE, but we'll see. Thanks to everyone for checking in. It's a lot of fun!
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King choked big-time. Every play was a forced throw to the end zone when there were other options.
 
Br@ssknux said:
17. Alamo Bowl: USC -6.5 v TCU (BOL) : USC has been hit hard by departures, mostly opt outs, including their 3 top receivers, stud WRs Makai Lemon and Jakobi Lane and TE Lake McCree. That happened to them last year too, however, when Zach Branch and Duce Robinson hit the road and set the stage for Lane and Lemon to light up A&M in the Holiday Bowl. The Trojans are also missing guys all over the defense, but they have enough guys who took a lot of snaps to fill things out for them. They also catch a major break because they won't have to deal with TCU QB Josh Hoover, who is transferring and OC Kendall Briles is off to South Carolina, so they'll have some other staff guys calling plays for backup Ken Seals, who has been around forever(Vandy previously) and hasn't done anything to impress anyone other than maybe his Mom. They'll have the rest of their offense, but they couldn't really run the ball and they'll be behind the 8 ball in the passing game with no Hoover. USC on the other hand will have Jaiden Maiava, who will be the best player on the field by quite a bit. He'll miss his receivers but he does have some potential candidates to step up, especially WR Tanook Hines, who led USC with 141 yards on 6 catches and a TD late in the season at Oregon. There's plenty of other talented guys waiting to get a shot behind Lemon and Lane, and TCU was consistently burned this year in the passing game on defense. In addition, RB King Miller will be playing, and he averaged 4.2 yards after contact and had some big games running the ball. Original starting RB Waymond Jordan might also be back as he has been practicing during bowl prep. Despite the losses, I think USC is going to have a lot of success moving the ball on TCU, and I am very skeptical that Seals and a makeshift play calling operation can keep up. There is a huge edge for USC at the QB position, and I think it's worth the TD spread difference.
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Line down to -5 no idea why
 
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