Bowl Season 2025-2026 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
Every year I say this is my favorite time of the year, and each year it looks like the way of the bowls is changing. I used to complain about it and put myself through consternation resisting the change from what I liked to what I was sure would be worse, but I've learned to not care so much. At the end of the day, as long as we have games to bet on, and they set lines, I'm happy. A lot of what I was worried about years ago has come true in the form of unintended consequences from our screaming and yelling about who got to play for the national championship, but it's not that bad. At least that's what I tell myself.

A couple of points before I get started on the games. First, take a look at Bookie Assassin's thread here. I think he has a lot of good rules of thumb when betting bowls, especially the one about picking the winner of the game. I often mention that I try not to mess with dogs who I don't think have a reasonably decent shot to win outright unless they're getting 10 or more, i.e. "I think this is a 27-24 game so I'll take the 3.5". Bowls very seldom come down to the spread in most cases and dogs win outright quite a bit because we have so many teams these days that just don't have a ton of motivation. Motivation is of the utmost importance, and it's very hard to spot sometimes.

On that point, the bowls are when we look our smartest and also our dumbest. I remember taking Florida +10 or so a few years ago because I thought Kyle Trask deciding to play was a huge indicator of the Gators resolve before playing Oklahoma. They were own 28-0 by the end of the first quarter I think and he called it a night soon after that. It's gonna happen.

As for Army/Navy, I got Army at +7(-118) so I took it. Not a full writeup because I don't really include the Army Navy game as part of the regular season, but as a game is neither a run of the mill regular season game nor a bowl game. Any time you can get this many points with the dog in this game, you have to take it, even when the dog has had a vastly inferior year on paper or appears to be way behind in overall performance throughout the year. It's the case this year and I don't think these teams are all that far off from each other. Navy has the better offense with Horvath and Tezca, but their defense has been mostly helpless all year while Army has held their own defensively and against a much tougher schedule. Army's offense is certainly not as good as Navy's, but it's been good enough to get some very impressive wins. A team that has won at Kansas State and at UTSA is a TD dog here? I don't think so, especially when we'll get their best effort(obviously) and these games usually play closer than the year-long results indicate anyway. The dog is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings here, so it makes sense to go with them here.

Washington -9.5 WIN
Jacksonville State +1.5 WIN
Old Dominion +3 WIN
Delaware +3 WIN
Memphis +3.5 LOSS
Oklahoma pk LOSS
Miami +3.5 WIN
Ole Miss -17 WIN
Toledo +7 WIN
Southern Miss +1 LOSS
Hawaii -117 ML WIN
New Mexico +2 LOSS
Clemson -2.5 LOSS
Army -7.5 WIN
Georgia Tech +4 PUSH
Houston PK WIN
USC -6.5 LOSS
Iowa +6 WIN
Michigan +7 LOSS
Utah -14 WIN
Miami(FL) +9.5 WIN
Oregon -2 WIN
Indiana -7 WIN
Georgia -6.5 LOSS
Navy -7 WIN
Wake Forest +3 WIN
Ole Miss +3.5 LOSS
Indiana -3.5 WIN
Indiana -8.5 LOSS

Final: 18-10



1. LA Bowl Washington -9.5 v Boise (BR): Other books have this at 10, but I'd lay that number as well. Washington has kind of separated itself as a bit of a tweener, as long as we're talking about games in which the Huskies aren't traveling to an earlier time zone. They lost to the Ohio States and the Oregons of the world, but pretty much handled everyone else. On the flip side, this Boise team is nowhere near as good as previous Boise squads have been. They've given up 200+ yards rushing 6 times and offensively have not run the ball well, even against run of the mill Mountain West defenses like Utah State, New Mexico and Nevada. Washington's defense under former Illini DC Ryan Walters has been very competitive, ranking 19th against the run against a helluva more challenging schedule than Boise. It looks like most of Washington's guys will be playing. Jonah Coleman has been banged up, and Boise's rush defense is a key weakness, but backup Adam Muhammad has been just fine in Coleman's absence. No hesitation here as it relates to Washington's road woes because they went down to LA just a couple weeks ago and easily handled UCLA. Boise has shown some ability to look good against the pass and on 3rd dwn on defense, but a lot of that work has been done against horseshit Mountain West offenses like Nevada, Fresno, San Diego State, Colorado State, etc. I think the Huskies win this going away unless they just don't care to be there, but a game in LA when more than half of their roster is from California makes that unlikely.
 
Last edited:
I would say UNM's rush defense was pretty good. Pass D was bad. But yes, I agree with you. This is not a good Boise team. Just shows how bad the rest of the MW was that they still won the league.

I'm on Washington as well
 
2. Salute to Veterans Bowl; Jacksonville State +1.5 v Troy (BR) : This line was 3 a few days ago, I just couldn't get to the thread to get it written up. I do think the Gamecocks are going to win this outright however, so I like it at 1.5 as well. Ultimately, these teams are pretty evenly matched. Jax State should have the edge at the line of scrimmage, but Troy has played a significantly tougher schedule and has a pretty solid edge on special teams. Both teams should have most of their guys, if not all, but Troy's #1 QB Goose Crowder got hurt in the Sun Belt title game and looks to be out and their starting RB Tae Meadows is in the portal. Tucker Kilcrease will play QB for Troy and although Crowder is better, Kilcrease started a handful of games for the Trojans and was passable against lesser defenses. I like Jacksonville State here because they will have a major edge in the run game on both sides of the ball. Troy couldn't run the ball at all and has one of the weakest offensive lines in the country, and Jacksonville State had only a couple instances all year that they didn't hold opposing run games in check, including UCF, a pretty good P4 run offense in the opener. On the other side of the ball, there is no way in hell Troy is going to stop this Jax State running attack. They ranked 102nd against the run and got bulldozed by elite run offenses, getting gashed for 300+ yards three times(ODU, JMU and Texas State. Jacksonville State is on the level of those teams in the run game as Cam Cook (1700+ yards) and QB Caeden Creel(1200) both topped 1,000 yards this year, and they ranked 14th in the country in yards per attempt. Troy has a chance to hit some big plays in the pass game, but only if they can avoid getting Kilcrease killed back there, as that offensive line ranked 135th in sacks allowed and Jax State can rush the passer. Any time I know for an almost certain fact that one of the teams will run wild, I'm interested in them, and I'm even more interested if they're getting points. That's the case here, so I'll take the Gamecocks.
 
3. Cure Bowl: Old Dominion +3 v South Florida (BR) : This game might be a bit of a motivational mismatch. USF coach Alex Golesh has taken the Auburn job and much of his staff with him, so the USF squad will be coached by the DL coach Kevin Patrick. Golesh what looks like the entire offensive staff, so it appears some GAs/analysts will be calling the plays, along with Byrum Brown, who opted out and will be an assistant coach for this game(!!). I can't imagine USF cares much about this matchup with a Sun Belt team considering that they were a favorite to make the playoff out of the American for a big chunk of the season. On the other hand, ODU has a chance to step up and they have continuity with the current staff. QB Colton Joseph is transferring so he won't play, but I don't know how much of a downgrade that will be. Backup Quinn Heincle will start. He didn't play hardly at all this year, but made a start last year in their finale against Arkansas State and ran for 220+ yards and threw for 10+ yards per attempt in that game. ODU has been good on the ground the past two years and had a knack for big plays in the run game in the years before that which predated Joseph, so I think the system is in place for Heincle to play well, and he has had success before as well. I'd expect more opt outs for USF since their staff is gone, and ODU is no slouch even if the Bulls were at full strength. They outgained their opponents by 1.9 yards per play on the year, ranked 13th in yards per play on offense and played solid defense all year as well, ranking no worse than 38th in any category. Backup QB Gaston Moore played sparingly and only averaged 3.0 yards per attempt. This USF tea relies heavily on Byrum Brown, and he won't be there for them. I like ODU quite a bit in this one.
 
4. 68 Ventures Bowl Delaware +3 v La La (BOL) : The Ragin' Cajuns started the season 2-6, but then won 4 straight to get bowl eligible and qualify for this game. That sounds impressive but it really isn't. They bear South Alabama, Texas State, Arkansas State and ULM but were outgained by an average of 85 yards over those 4 games, including giving up 516 yards in the finale against ULM, a previously deceased team who did not possess an actual offense. Their QB Lunch Winfield is banged up but looks like he'll play, but if he gets knocked around, their 2 backups combined for 1 TD and 7 INTs and about 4 yards per pass attempt. La La can run it, but that's about it on offense and their defense ranked below 100th in every conceivable category. The Blue Hens had some pretty impressive performances this year, beating UConn, FIU on the road and played Colorado to a statistical standstill in Boulder. They have a legit threat in QB Nick Minicucci who threw for 3500 yards and a 22/7 ratio. Considering ULM just torched the Cajuns for 311 yards passing, I'd say Minicucci might have a good chance for success in this one. The Blue Hens should be able to move it very well through the air and they also look to have a major edge on 3rd down. Ultimately, when you line these two teams up unit by unit, I think Delaware has been the better team this year. They're new to FBS but are getting a bowl shot, so they'll be motivated. Delaware might have some problems stopping the run here, but La La is very one dimensional, so they'll be able to stack the box without much fear of being beaten through the air. I trust Minicucci and the Blur Hen offense a lot more than I do the Cajuns, and La La's defense has proven it can struggle against the worst of offenses. I'll take the points with what I think is the better side.
 
Taking a pass on the xBox Bowl. Arky State has been a total wildcard all year. They've played 3 one point games this year and 3 others came down to the last play. MZ State's coach just got the Coastal job, so there's no telling their state of mind. I might lean a bit to Arky State since Butch Jones has been really good in bowls(believe it or not) but there's too much unpredictability to have a play on this one. (As if any of these are predictable!)
 
Last edited:
The Myrtle Beach Bowl is actually a pretty good matchup. with Kennesaw State and Western Michigan both taking home conference championships. I'm not going to have a play on this one. These two teams are pretty evenly matched, but I don't really have a lot of desire to take the points and fade WMU after how good they looked in the MAC title game against Miami. The WMU defense is no joke, but it looks like they'll be without their best defensive player Nadame Walker who is probably opting out. KSU QB Amari Odom has big play potential but he's also very turnover prone. Not enough to like in this matchup for me to go either way.
 
5. Gasparilla Bowl Memphis +3.5 v NC State (BOL) : I swear, every time I'm about to write up a game, invariably, the line moves in the hours before I get to it. Yesterday at this time it was 4.5, but ultimately, I think Memphis wins this game anyway. Looking at this game on paper is tricky because NC State played a significantly tougher schedule than Memphis did, but we have quite a track record for both of these programs in bowls. Losing Ryan Silverfield doesn't really bother me because I've never been much of a fan of his coaching acumen, but the program is no stranger to competing in and winning bowls. The Tigers are on a 4 game bowl winning streak and beat West Virginia and Iowa State (outright as a 10.5 point dog) the past two seasons. NC State on the other hand hasn't won a bowl game under Doeren since 2017, currently on a 6 game losing streak in which they've gone 1-5 ATS. Last year, they lost outright as a 7 point favorite to another American team, East Carolina. As for the matchup, NC State is likely to be without 2 of their best players on offense, Hollywood Smothers, who has announced he's in the transfer portal and TE Justin Joly, who might be the best player on the team overall. Joly has been banged up all year and has a very bright NFL future so he seems likely to sit out although it hasn't been announced. Offensively, NC State has been good, but they have been terrible on defense and I think Memphis will be able to move the ball on them. Brendon Lewis is about as healthy as he's going to get, so he'll be able to run the read option with those running backs effectively, and he's got 3 good ones in Sutton Smith, Greg Desrosiers and Frank Peasant, all of whom topped 5 yards per carry and scored 7 TDs apiece. The Wolfpack has had some hellaciously bad efforts against similar run offenses, having given up 10+ yards per attempt to Kyron Drones and the Virginia Tech running game and 8 yards a carry to Virginia. Also, most of their good performances were at home, and they were mostly non-competitive on the road getting blown out in 4 of their 5 road games. Nc State ranked 130th on 3rd down defense and absolutely cannot rush the passer, so I see a real challenge for them to get stops against this Memphis offense, which is going to make it hard to cover any kind of spread as a favorite. With Doeren's bowl record and Memphis's penchant to punch up in bowl games, I'll take the points with the dog. Hopefully the point of value lost doesn't hurt us.
 
6. @Oklahoma pk v Alabama (BOL) : A lot has been said about the first meeting between these two which Oklahoma won, but many have correctly pointed out that the Tide outgained the Sooners 406-212. Oklahoma did in that game what they've done all year: Depend on the defense, either to shut down the opponent or make winning plays to turn the game. In that one, it was turnovers and a defensive score. This time the game moves from Tuscaloosa to Norman. If we change the result of that first game, and Alabama won, what would we expect in this one? A carbon copy, or would we expect Oklahoma to play better at home and close the gap in the play on the field? I would say the latter. I'd go so far as to say that Alabama already got their win between these two, they just couldn't convert the performance into a win. This time, I don't think they'll get the performance. Alabama has zero point zero chance to run the ball effectively. They've fallen to 121st in the country in yards per rush, and they're facing the top dogs defensively in that category. No shot at running the ball, healthy Jam Miller or not. That makes the Tide extremely one dimensional, and I'm not sure if the current version of Ty Simpson can carry that weight on his shoulders. He was running for his life against Auburn and as a result did not have a great statistical game, but still found a way to throw three TDs and zero picks because he's a playmaker. Oklahoma's defense will be even more formidable at home and they are 2nd in the nation in sack rate. Oklahoma's offense is unlikely to have much success either, but I think they have a better chance to be multiple than Alabama does, and I'd say the gap between the defenses and offenses in this game is pretty similar. That leaves special teams, and Oklahoma has a major edge in that area as FEI has Oklahoma at 7 in their special teams rankings while Bama sits at 97th. Throw in the home field, and Bama's road struggles and that's enough for me to think that Oklahoma wins this game.
 
Br@ssknux said:
Every year I say this is my favorite time of the year, and each year it looks like the way of the bowls is changing. I used to complain about it and put myself through consternation resisting the change from what I liked to what I was sure would be worse, but I've learned to not care so much. At the end of the day, as long as we have games to bet on, and they set lines, I'm happy. A lot of what I was worried about years ago has come true in the form of unintended consequences from our screaming and yelling about who got to play for the national championship, but it's not that bad. At least that's what I tell myself.

A couple of points before I get started on the games. First, take a look at Bookie Assassin's thread here. I think he has a lot of good rules of thumb when betting bowls, especially the one about picking the winner of the game. I often mention that I try not to mess with dogs who I don't think have a reasonably decent shot to win outright unless they're getting 10 or more, i.e. "I think this is a 27-24 game so I'll take the 3.5". Bowls very seldom come down to the spread in most cases and dogs win outright quite a bit because we have so many teams these days that just don't have a ton of motivation. Motivation is of the utmost importance, and it's very hard to spot sometimes.

On that point, the bowls are when we look our smartest and also our dumbest. I remember taking Florida +10 or so a few years ago because I thought Kyle Trask deciding to play was a huge indicator of the Gators resolve before playing Oklahoma. They were own 28-0 by the end of the first quarter I think and he called it a night soon after that. It's gonna happen.

As for Army/Navy, I got Army at +7(-118) so I took it. Not a full writeup because I don't really include the Army Navy game as part of the regular season, but as a game is neither a run of the mill regular season game nor a bowl game. Any time you can get this many points with the dog in this game, you have to take it, even when the dog has had a vastly inferior year on paper or appears to be way behind in overall performance throughout the year. It's the case this year and I don't think these teams are all that far off from each other. Navy has the better offense with Horvath and Tezca, but their defense has been mostly helpless all year while Army has held their own defensively and against a much tougher schedule. Army's offense is certainly not as good as Navy's, but it's been good enough to get some very impressive wins. A team that has won at Kansas State and at UTSA is a TD dog here? I don't think so, especially when we'll get their best effort(obviously) and these games usually play closer than the year-long results indicate anyway. The dog is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings here, so it makes sense to go with them here.

Washington -9.5 WIN
Jacksonville State +1.5 WIN
Old Dominion +3 WIN
Delaware +3 WIN
Memphis +3.5

1. LA Bowl Washington -9.5 v Boise (BR): Other books have this at 10, but I'd lay that number as well. Washington has kind of separated itself as a bit of a tweener, as long as we're talking about games in which the Huskies aren't traveling to an earlier time zone. They lost to the Ohio States and the Oregons of the world, but pretty much handled everyone else. On the flip side, this Boise team is nowhere near as good as previous Boise squads have been. They've given up 200+ yards rushing 6 times and offensively have not run the ball well, even against run of the mill Mountain West defenses like Utah State, New Mexico and Nevada. Washington's defense under former Illini DC Ryan Walters has been very competitive, ranking 19th against the run against a helluva more challenging schedule than Boise. It looks like most of Washington's guys will be playing. Jonah Coleman has been banged up, and Boise's rush defense is a key weakness, but backup Adam Muhammad has been just fine in Coleman's absence. No hesitation here as it relates to Washington's road woes because they went down to LA just a couple weeks ago and easily handled UCLA. Boise has shown some ability to look good against the pass and on 3rd dwn on defense, but a lot of that work has been done against horseshit Mountain West offenses like Nevada, Fresno, San Diego State, Colorado State, etc. I think the Huskies win this going away unless they just don't care to be there, but a game in LA when more than half of their roster is from California makes that unlikely.
Click to expand...
You are an absolute machine!!! Keep it up and BOL the rest of the way! I find myself screen shotting and sharing your thoughts in all my group chats more often than not haha Always appreciate your write ups
 
MikeU said:
You are an absolute machine!!! Keep it up and BOL the rest of the way! I find myself screen shotting and sharing your thoughts in all my group chats more often than not haha Always appreciate your write ups
Click to expand...
Glad to hear it Mike! Thanks so much for the kind words. My personality is one that enjoys analyzing things so I love doing this stuff, but it's comments like this that really make me feel great.
 
bones said:
Brass - Thak you for the work and all the time you spend for others on your thread!

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year.

Best to you. Good Luck and what a start!
Click to expand...
No problem Bones, you are always very kind. Hope you have a great Holiday season! May the tickets be robust and cashable.
 
Br@ssknux said:
5. Gasparilla Bowl Memphis +3.5 v NC State (BOL) : I swear, every time I'm about to write up a game, invariably, the line moves in the hours before I get to it. Yesterday at this time it was 4.5, but ultimately, I think Memphis wins this game anyway. Looking at this game on paper is tricky because NC State played a significantly tougher schedule than Memphis did, but we have quite a track record for both of these programs in bowls. Losing Ryan Silverfield doesn't really bother me because I've never been much of a fan of his coaching acumen, but the program is no stranger to competing in and winning bowls. The Tigers are on a 4 game bowl winning streak and beat West Virginia and Iowa State (outright as a 10.5 point dog) the past two seasons. NC State on the other hand hasn't won a bowl game under Doeren since 2017, currently on a 6 game losing streak in which they've gone 1-5 ATS. Last year, they lost outright as a 7 point favorite to another American team, East Carolina. As for the matchup, NC State is likely to be without 2 of their best players on offense, Hollywood Smothers, who has announced he's in the transfer portal and TE Justin Joly, who might be the best player on the team overall. Joly has been banged up all year and has a very bright NFL future so he seems likely to sit out although it hasn't been announced. Offensively, NC State has been good, but they have been terrible on defense and I think Memphis will be able to move the ball on them. Brendon Lewis is about as healthy as he's going to get, so he'll be able to run the read option with those running backs effectively, and he's got 3 good ones in Sutton Smith, Greg Desrosiers and Frank Peasant, all of whom topped 5 yards per carry and scored 7 TDs apiece. The Wolfpack has had some hellaciously bad efforts against similar run offenses, having given up 10+ yards per attempt to Kyron Drones and the Virginia Tech running game and 8 yards a carry to Virginia. Also, most of their good performances were at home, and they were mostly non-competitive on the road getting blown out in 4 of their 5 road games. Nc State ranked 130th on 3rd down defense and absolutely cannot rush the passer, so I see a real challenge for them to get stops against this Memphis offense, which is going to make it hard to cover any kind of spread as a favorite. With Doeren's bowl record and Memphis's penchant to punch up in bowl games, I'll take the points with the dog. Hopefully the point of value lost doesn't hurt us.
Click to expand...
Here's an example of the highs and lows of bowl season. I mentioned Greg Desrosier and Sutton Smith(especially) being a lot for NC State to handle. Well, how bout they're not playing? Would have been nice to know that. Also, #1 receiver Cortez Braham and their top two OL Chris Adams and Malachi Breland didn't show up either. Again, it would have been nice to know all of that. Why wait until the game starts to say you're sitting out? Also, shit job by local Memphis media. I scour the net as much as possible to try to find this shit out before I make a play and there wasn't a word about any of this.

It actually happened with Cam Cook at Jax State too but luckily we won anyway. Maybe one of these days the team I bet AGAINST will have all these phantom opt outs.

Oh well, can't win them all.
 
Br@ssknux said:
Here's an example of the highs and lows of bowl season. I mentioned Greg Desrosier and Sutton Smith(especially) being a lot for NC State to handle. Well, how bout they're not playing? Would have been nice to know that. Also, #1 receiver Cortez Braham and their top two OL Chris Adams and Malachi Breland didn't show up either. Again, it would have been nice to know all of that. Why wait until the game starts to say you're sitting out? Also, shit job by local Memphis media. I scour the net as much as possible to try to find this shit out before I make a play and there wasn't a word about any of this.

It actually happened with Cam Cook at Jax State too but luckily we won anyway. Maybe one of these days the team I bet AGAINST will have all these phantom opt outs.

Oh well, can't win them all.
Click to expand...
Yes, that really sucks the perils of bowl season....
 
7. Miami(FL) +3.5 @Texas A&M (BR) : We'll see if the Canes can buck the trend of home favorites winning and covering in the on-campus opening round. I think these two teams are very evenly matched, but I really like the trajectory of Miami a lot more than that of Texas A&M. I lost quite a few times betting against the Aggies, but upon a close inspection, their win at Notre Dame(when Notre Dame was really struggling to adapt to Chris Ash's defensive scheme) is doing all of the heavy lifting. Their SEC schedule was devoid of the top teams, and they looked pretty bad in their last 2 SEC games, a close escape at home against South Carolina and a game against Texas in which they were pretty much dominated. Their main weakness on defense is a leaky run defense, which appears to not be a problem in this one because Miami has not run the ball all that effectively. That's mostly because they lacked a breakaway threat in the backfield for most of the year, but once Gerard Pringle got more carries at the expense of Mark Fletcher, things started getting better for the Canes and the results on the scoreboard reflected that. Pringle averaged 6 yards per carry and looked especially good against Pitt(#8 rush D). Miami has been fantastic on defense all year, ranking in the top 20 in every category and top 10 in most. I'm not a huge fan of Carson Beck, especially on the road, but I think he's going to have a better shot of having success against A&M's defense than Marcel Reed will against this Miami defense. Both defenses can rush the passer, but Miami's offensive line hardly gave up any sacks while A&M ranked only 64th in sack rate against. I know this will be a raucous environment, but A&M strikes me as a "we can't have nice things" type of fanbase, and I have a feeling there might be an anxious vibe as a result of all the failures in some of the biggest games in College Station over the years. Mario Cristobal doesn't exactly elicit a ton of confidence, but his gaffes have almost exclusively come when he's a significant favorite, and he's a dog here. Lastly, I am not convinced that the SEC is the end all be all conference that it's cracked up to be. The end of the year gave us quite a few data points that ACC teams can hang (Louisville skeleton crew trouncing Kentucky, Clemson handling SC, Georgia Tech holding Georgia to virtually nothing, etc) and Miami was the class of that league this year. Both teams are coming into this game healthy, and that's especially true for Miami's defense, which I think is the most significant unit on the field ion this one. I don't have an overwhelming amount of confidence that they will win this game outright, but I think it's pretty close to 50/50, so I will take the 3.5.
 
8. @Ole Miss -17 v Tulane (BOL) : I really wanted to find a way to justify a bet on Tulane because I am really getting annoyed with all the rhetoric about how the group of 5 teams are so inferior, etc, but I just can't find it with this Green Wave squad. You probably could have found it in a spot like this with about a dozen more worthy American/Mountain West teams from recent years past, but this Tulane team isn't it. Their defense stinks. I hate to be blunt about it but it's true. They had no shot of stopping Ole Miss in the first meeting, and that as in a game that was a terrible spot for the Rebels and great one for Tulane. Tulane stopped the run decently this year against the 72nd ranked schedule, but Ole MIss ran all over them, and Trinidad Chambliss did a lot of the work. Tulane's major weakness is in the pass game and in their tackling, as PFF has them ranked 82nd overall in that metric. They are going to give up points again in this one, and Ole Miss will be motivated to prove to Kiffin that they belong whether he's there or he isn't. Tulane's offense under Retzlaff isn't that much better, as they had no ability to move the ball the first time around. Retzlaff's main attribute is running, but unless he's got a 200 yard game in him, it's going to be a tall order. On top of it, you have the upheaval of Sumrall leaving. If there was no distractions, you might be able to make a case that Tulane will come in the more focused team, but this whole staff has one foot out the door. I'm a fan of taking a big amount of points with solid group of 5 times, but this one isn't in the cards in my opinion.
 
Massive kudos to Bama for that win. The first quarter was like Balboa/Clubber Lang 1 in Rocky 3. After the missed 4th down by OUmidway through the 2nd, it was Balboa/Lang 2 after that.

One of the most noteworthy things about that game was how well Simpson weathered the storm. Under intense pressure from the first snap and he didn't turn it over once. I have no idea how he held onto the ball on some of those sacks. What a gutsy effort by him.
 
No writeup with any recommendation on JMU/Oregon. Admittedly I bet Oregon -20.5 as soon as it opened because I thought the line would go up significantly, but it never did.

This is actually a group of 5 team that probably warrants respect, and I think I believe there's a higher likelihood that JMU covers this number, but I could also see things just collapsing on the Dukes. Ultimately, their schedule adjusted numbers are not far from the likes of Iowa or BYU, and that Indiana team that handled the Ducks in Eugene was full of JMU guys, so the ability to hang here is legit, as is their defense. Ultimately, I can't get there on a JMU official play because I don't know that the Dukes can score enough, and I know they are going to have all kinds of trouble blocking the Ducks defensive front. I just don't like it enough to make an official play on it. Lean JMU though as long as it's at least 3 TDs.
 
Br@ssknux said:
7. Miami(FL) +3.5 @Texas A&M (BR) : We'll see if the Canes can buck the trend of home favorites winning and covering in the on-campus opening round. I think these two teams are very evenly matched, but I really like the trajectory of Miami a lot more than that of Texas A&M. I lost quite a few times betting against the Aggies, but upon a close inspection, their win at Notre Dame(when Notre Dame was really struggling to adapt to Chris Ash's defensive scheme) is doing all of the heavy lifting. Their SEC schedule was devoid of the top teams, and they looked pretty bad in their last 2 SEC games, a close escape at home against South Carolina and a game against Texas in which they were pretty much dominated. Their main weakness on defense is a leaky run defense, which appears to not be a problem in this one because Miami has not run the ball all that effectively. That's mostly because they lacked a breakaway threat in the backfield for most of the year, but once Gerard Pringle got more carries at the expense of Mark Fletcher, things started getting better for the Canes and the results on the scoreboard reflected that. Pringle averaged 6 yards per carry and looked especially good against Pitt(#8 rush D). Miami has been fantastic on defense all year, ranking in the top 20 in every category and top 10 in most. I'm not a huge fan of Carson Beck, especially on the road, but I think he's going to have a better shot of having success against A&M's defense than Marcel Reed will against this Miami defense. Both defenses can rush the passer, but Miami's offensive line hardly gave up any sacks while A&M ranked only 64th in sack rate against. I know this will be a raucous environment, but A&M strikes me as a "we can't have nice things" type of fanbase, and I have a feeling there might be an anxious vibe as a result of all the failures in some of the biggest games in College Station over the years. Mario Cristobal doesn't exactly elicit a ton of confidence, but his gaffes have almost exclusively come when he's a significant favorite, and he's a dog here. Lastly, I am not convinced that the SEC is the end all be all conference that it's cracked up to be. The end of the year gave us quite a few data points that ACC teams can hang (Louisville skeleton crew trouncing Kentucky, Clemson handling SC, Georgia Tech holding Georgia to virtually nothing, etc) and Miami was the class of that league this year. Both teams are coming into this game healthy, and that's especially true for Miami's defense, which I think is the most significant unit on the field ion this one. I don't have an overwhelming amount of confidence that they will win this game outright, but I think it's pretty close to 50/50, so I will take the 3.5.
Click to expand...
I want to take Miami, I just can't get road Carson Beck from the last 3 years out of my head
 
Br@ssknux said:
8. @Ole Miss -17 v Tulane (BOL) : I really wanted to find a way to justify a bet on Tulane because I am really getting annoyed with all the rhetoric about how the group of 5 teams are so inferior, etc, but I just can't find it with this Green Wave squad. You probably could have found it in a spot like this with about a dozen more worthy American/Mountain West teams from recent years past, but this Tulane team isn't it. Their defense stinks. I hate to be blunt about it but it's true. They had no shot of stopping Ole Miss in the first meeting, and that as in a game that was a terrible spot for the Rebels and great one for Tulane. Tulane stopped the run decently this year against the 72nd ranked schedule, but Ole MIss ran all over them, and Trinidad Chambliss did a lot of the work. Tulane's major weakness is in the pass game and in their tackling, as PFF has them ranked 82nd overall in that metric. They are going to give up points again in this one, and Ole Miss will be motivated to prove to Kiffin that they belong whether he's there or he isn't. Tulane's offense under Retzlaff isn't that much better, as they had no ability to move the ball the first time around. Retzlaff's main attribute is running, but unless he's got a 200 yard game in him, it's going to be a tall order. On top of it, you have the upheaval of Sumrall leaving. If there was no distractions, you might be able to make a case that Tulane will come in the more focused team, but this whole staff has one foot out the door. I'm a fan of taking a big amount of points with solid group of 5 times, but this one isn't in the cards in my opinion.
Click to expand...

Love Ole Miss today. Everything Golding has done and said leading up to this has been so good. I'm a fan. Feels like a team that will have a lot to prove with Lucifer having departed for LSU. On Toddy for the game and 1H.
 
Last edited:
Checking in:

After Saturday, the writeups sit at 6-2, so off to a good start. Back to the guessing game of who's going to opt out at the last minute for awhile, but we'll see if we can navigate it. Hoping to have some additional time to fashion some writeups today and tomorrow. I'll be trying to stay up to date on any news with personnel on these upcoming games, but it's very hard because nobody in the media seems to want to ask about it, and most of what you find nowadays is this horseshit AI world salad.

I'm still recovering from that Bears game...
 
Idaho Potato Bowl: I lean a bit toward Washington State in this one against Utah State but I'm not going to make a recommendation on it. This line is at Washington +1 or pick at most spots. Both of these teams were teams that I was looking to back in bowl season but they ended up facing off against each other. I'm tempted to play Wazzou by virtue of how they played as the season wore on. They could have/should have beaten Ole Miss, Virginia and James Madison all on the road and were in those games because of their defense, a very feisty crew. If not for the coaching change(HC Jimmy Rodgers is off to Iowa State) I would be on the Cougs, but there's a ton of uncertainty and additional potential opt outs while Utah State is only going to be missing leading receiver Braden Pegan. Utah State was also a couple plays away from being in the Mountain West championship game with a record of 8-4. Their losses were at Vandy, at A&M, at New Mexico, at Hawaii and razor thin losses to Boise and UNLV. Both of these teams are reliable squads, I'd hate to bet against either one of them.
 
9. Boca Raton Bowl: Toledo +7 v Louisville (BR) : This one was hovering around 9-9.5 a couple days ago, but it's come down. Toledo coach Jason Candle has left to take the UConn job with Co-OC QB coach Robet Weiner taking over for the bowl. They've also lost several assistants, so the coaching staff will be down to the GA's in some cases. Having said all that, all indications are that most of the guys that led Toledo this year will be playing, including their two primary playmakers on offense, RB Chip Trayunum and WR Junior Vandeross. QB Tucker Gleason got hurt in their finale against Central Michigan so he'll be out, but Kalieb Osborne came in at halftime when the Rockets were down 3-0 and led three TD drives, looking pretty good in the process both running and throwing. The strength of this Toledo team is their defense, which ranked 3rd overall in the country in yards per play allowed and was also very adept at rushing the passer and on 3rd down. They are missing a couple guys to the portal, but they have several studs on that side of the ball. This Louisville team is just finishing off the year and they are missing a lot of their main guys, including WR Chris Bell and most of their guys on the defensive line, which was a strength of the team. They really missed their top 2 RBs Isaac Brown and Keyjuan Brown, and it's very questionable if they'll have either one of those two. Indications from their primary beat writer are that the team is motivated and staying together despite the loss of Candle, and this is a team that is used to winning and expects to win. Toledo has also been money as a dog, as much a rarity as that has been over the past 3-4 years. In their last 7 outings as a dog, they've gone 6-1, which is the best ATS winning percentage in the country in that time frame. They are very trustowrtht in this spot, and I think they'll be playing a team with an only half interested roster with a lot of opt outs and a QB (Moss) that has shown a penchant for turning it over against good defenses.
 
Br@ssknux said:
9. Boca Raton Bowl: Toledo +7 v Louisville (BR) : This one was hovering around 9-9.5 a couple days ago, but it's come down. Toledo coach Jason Candle has left to take the UConn job with Co-OC QB coach Robet Weiner taking over for the bowl. They've also lost several assistants, so the coaching staff will be down to the GA's in some cases. Having said all that, all indications are that most of the guys that led Toledo this year will be playing, including their two primary playmakers on offense, RB Chip Trayunum and WR Junior Vandeross. QB Tucker Gleason got hurt in their finale against Central Michigan so he'll be out, but Kalieb Osborne came in at halftime when the Rockets were down 3-0 and led three TD drives, looking pretty good in the process both running and throwing. The strength of this Toledo team is their defense, which ranked 3rd overall in the country in yards per play allowed and was also very adept at rushing the passer and on 3rd down. They are missing a couple guys to the portal, but they have several studs on that side of the ball. This Louisville team is just finishing off the year and they are missing a lot of their main guys, including WR Chris Bell and most of their guys on the defensive line, which was a strength of the team. They really missed their top 2 RBs Isaac Brown and Keyjuan Brown, and it's very questionable if they'll have either one of those two. Indications from their primary beat writer are that the team is motivated and staying together despite the loss of Candle, and this is a team that is used to winning and expects to win. Toledo has also been money as a dog, as much a rarity as that has been over the past 3-4 years. In their last 7 outings as a dog, they've gone 6-1, which is the best ATS winning percentage in the country in that time frame. They are very trustowrtht in this spot, and I think they'll be playing a team with an only half interested roster with a lot of opt outs and a QB (Moss) that has shown a penchant for turning it over against good defenses.
Click to expand...
This one is now up to 9 in several places so I added a little more. I've looked everywhere for some indication of why it moved 2 points like that, but I have not seen any personnel news.
 
10. New Orleans Bowl: Southern Miss +1 v Western Kentucky (BR) : This line has moved from somewhere around WKU -4 4 all the way to WKU -1 and even lower, and I agree with the move. I got it at +1 earlier tonight. Southern Miss lost head coach Charles Huff to Memphis but he was only there one year and OC, 2 time former head coach Blake Anderson got the job. That indicates stability and I have not seen anything indicating a ton of transfers/opt outs. QB Braylon Braxton has been pretty good this year and looks like he'll be playing. WKU should have stability also, but I think Southern Miss was a better team this year. They had a significantly better yards per play margin than WKU did against atougher schedule(or less weak, depending on how you look at it). The Hilltoppers are known for a good passing game, and they brought Maverick McIvor in to play QB along with his OC from (I think) Incarnate Word, but he's been middling this year and has shared time with backup Rodney Tisdale. Neither has been much better than the other, and I think they'll be facing a bit of a step up with this Southern Miss defense compared to what they see in Conference USA. This WKU defense has given up 450 or more yards 7 times including some against very mediocre offenses. I think Braxton should have a big gam(unless he's a surprise opt out). I think the Golden Eagles are a higher caliber team than WKU, so I'll take the point here.
 
I lean to laying the 6.5 with UNLV against Ohio in the Frisco Bowl, but even though Ohio is in a bit of upheaval after the unexpected firing of Brian Smith for various lowlife transgressions, pretty much their entire roster is expected to play. UNLV has moved the ball on pretty much everyone and I expect that again in this game, but UNLV has been terrible against the run and Ohio can run it. Ohio looks like the quintessential running dog and there's almost no doubt they'll have success. 6.5 is a little too rich for my blood here, although I do expect the Rebels to win this one.
 
Br@ssknux said:
I lean to laying the 6.5 with UNLV against Ohio in the Frisco Bowl, but even though Ohio is in a bit of upheaval after the unexpected firing of Brian Smith for various lowlife transgressions, pretty much their entire roster is expected to play. UNLV has moved the ball on pretty much everyone and I expect that again in this game, but UNLV has been terrible against the run and Ohio can run it. Ohio looks like the quintessential running dog and there's almost no doubt they'll have success. 6.5 is a little too rich for my blood here, although I do expect the Rebels to win this one.
Click to expand...
I am parlaying UNLV and Hawaii ML 🤞🏼
 
Br@ssknux said:
10. New Orleans Bowl: Southern Miss +1 v Western Kentucky (BR) : This line has moved from somewhere around WKU -4 4 all the way to WKU -1 and even lower, and I agree with the move. I got it at +1 earlier tonight. Southern Miss lost head coach Charles Huff to Memphis but he was only there one year and OC, 2 time former head coach Blake Anderson got the job. That indicates stability and I have not seen anything indicating a ton of transfers/opt outs. QB Braylon Braxton has been pretty good this year and looks like he'll be playing. WKU should have stability also, but I think Southern Miss was a better team this year. They had a significantly better yards per play margin than WKU did against atougher schedule(or less weak, depending on how you look at it). The Hilltoppers are known for a good passing game, and they brought Maverick McIvor in to play QB along with his OC from (I think) Incarnate Word, but he's been middling this year and has shared time with backup Rodney Tisdale. Neither has been much better than the other, and I think they'll be facing a bit of a step up with this Southern Miss defense compared to what they see in Conference USA. This WKU defense has given up 450 or more yards 7 times including some against very mediocre offenses. I think Braxton should have a big gam(unless he's a surprise opt out). I think the Golden Eagles are a higher caliber team than WKU, so I'll take the point here.
Click to expand...
Brass: I will not gum up your thread for every bowl. But, just as an example, I use GROK to try and find out about opt outs. I guess I should expand the question to include "portal" and "transfers."

does southern mississippi have players opting out of the bowl game today

No, the University of Southern Mississippi (Southern Miss) Golden Eagles do not have any players opting out of their bowl game today.They're playing Western Kentucky in the New Orleans Bowl (kickoff around 5:30 p.m. ET on ESPN at Caesars Superdome). Multiple sources, including bowl opt-out trackers from sites like Covers.com, Pro Football Network, and College Football Network (as of today), report no opt-outs or major absences for Southern Miss. Players like quarterback Braylon Braxton have publicly expressed commitment to playing, and the team is described as having a mostly full roster despite the recent coaching change (former HC Charles Huff left for Memphis, with Blake Anderson taking over).

does western kentucky have players opting out of new orleans bowl today

Yes, Western Kentucky has a couple of players unavailable for today's New Orleans Bowl against Southern Miss due to entering the transfer portal.The confirmed absences are:
  • Dylan Flowers (CB) — Entered the transfer portal.
  • La'Vell Wright (RB) — Entered the transfer portal (he had 10 rushing touchdowns this season).
These are the only notable absences reported across multiple bowl opt-out trackers (e.g., Covers.com, College Football Network, and others as of December 23, 2025). No major injuries or additional opt-outs are noted for key players, and sources describe WKU as having minimal roster disruption and a mostly full roster for this Group of 5 matchup. In non-CFP bowls like this, opt-outs are generally low, especially without NFL Draft prospects skipping games.
 
Br@ssknux said:
9. Boca Raton Bowl: Toledo +7 v Louisville (BR) : This one was hovering around 9-9.5 a couple days ago, but it's come down. Toledo coach Jason Candle has left to take the UConn job with Co-OC QB coach Robet Weiner taking over for the bowl. They've also lost several assistants, so the coaching staff will be down to the GA's in some cases. Having said all that, all indications are that most of the guys that led Toledo this year will be playing, including their two primary playmakers on offense, RB Chip Trayunum and WR Junior Vandeross. QB Tucker Gleason got hurt in their finale against Central Michigan so he'll be out, but Kalieb Osborne came in at halftime when the Rockets were down 3-0 and led three TD drives, looking pretty good in the process both running and throwing. The strength of this Toledo team is their defense, which ranked 3rd overall in the country in yards per play allowed and was also very adept at rushing the passer and on 3rd down. They are missing a couple guys to the portal, but they have several studs on that side of the ball. This Louisville team is just finishing off the year and they are missing a lot of their main guys, including WR Chris Bell and most of their guys on the defensive line, which was a strength of the team. They really missed their top 2 RBs Isaac Brown and Keyjuan Brown, and it's very questionable if they'll have either one of those two. Indications from their primary beat writer are that the team is motivated and staying together despite the loss of Candle, and this is a team that is used to winning and expects to win. Toledo has also been money as a dog, as much a rarity as that has been over the past 3-4 years. In their last 7 outings as a dog, they've gone 6-1, which is the best ATS winning percentage in the country in that time frame. They are very trustowrtht in this spot, and I think they'll be playing a team with an only half interested roster with a lot of opt outs and a QB (Moss) that has shown a penchant for turning it over against good defenses.
Click to expand...
According to Gemini AI. Might explain reason for huge move to 11 1/2

What players have opted out for the Toledo football team from bowl game





Heading into the 2025 Boca Raton Bowl against Louisville, the Toledo Rockets have been significantly impacted by roster departures and injuries.

Several key starters have officially opted out after entering the transfer portal, primarily on the defensive side of the ball:

Toledo Opt-Outs (Transfer Portal)​

  • Malachi Davis (DE): A major loss for the defensive line; he led the team in sacks this season.
  • Braden Awls (S): A First-Team All-MAC safety who recorded five interceptions this year.
  • Chris D’Appolonia (LB): A Third-Team All-MAC linebacker and a critical part of their run defense.
  • Stephen Gales (LT): The starting left tackle is also expected to be unavailable.
 
vegasvice said:
According to Gemini AI. Might explain reason for huge move to 11 1/2

What players have opted out for the Toledo football team from bowl game





Heading into the 2025 Boca Raton Bowl against Louisville, the Toledo Rockets have been significantly impacted by roster departures and injuries.

Several key starters have officially opted out after entering the transfer portal, primarily on the defensive side of the ball:

Toledo Opt-Outs (Transfer Portal)​

  • Malachi Davis (DE): A major loss for the defensive line; he led the team in sacks this season.
  • Braden Awls (S): A First-Team All-MAC safety who recorded five interceptions this year.
  • Chris D’Appolonia (LB): A Third-Team All-MAC linebacker and a critical part of their run defense.
  • Stephen Gales (LT): The starting left tackle is also expected to be unavailable.
Click to expand...
Redshirt freshman QB Miller Moss is supposedly starting for Toledo.
 
bones said:
Brass: I will not gum up your thread for every bowl. But, just as an example, I use GROK to try and find out about opt outs. I guess I should expand the question to include "portal" and "transfers."

does southern mississippi have players opting out of the bowl game today

No, the University of Southern Mississippi (Southern Miss) Golden Eagles do not have any players opting out of their bowl game today.They're playing Western Kentucky in the New Orleans Bowl (kickoff around 5:30 p.m. ET on ESPN at Caesars Superdome). Multiple sources, including bowl opt-out trackers from sites like Covers.com, Pro Football Network, and College Football Network (as of today), report no opt-outs or major absences for Southern Miss. Players like quarterback Braylon Braxton have publicly expressed commitment to playing, and the team is described as having a mostly full roster despite the recent coaching change (former HC Charles Huff left for Memphis, with Blake Anderson taking over).

does western kentucky have players opting out of new orleans bowl today

Yes, Western Kentucky has a couple of players unavailable for today's New Orleans Bowl against Southern Miss due to entering the transfer portal.The confirmed absences are:
  • Dylan Flowers (CB) — Entered the transfer portal.
  • La'Vell Wright (RB) — Entered the transfer portal (he had 10 rushing touchdowns this season).
These are the only notable absences reported across multiple bowl opt-out trackers (e.g., Covers.com, College Football Network, and others as of December 23, 2025). No major injuries or additional opt-outs are noted for key players, and sources describe WKU as having minimal roster disruption and a mostly full roster for this Group of 5 matchup. In non-CFP bowls like this, opt-outs are generally low, especially without NFL Draft prospects skipping games.
Click to expand...
Thanks Bones! No need to apologize, any info is much appreciated. I love it when people gum up the thread.
 
My assumption was that Keyjuan Brown and Isaac Brown, both coming off pretty nagging injuries all year, would do what 99% of these assholes do and feel they were above a bowl. Not just any bowl, but the fucking Boca Raton Bowl against a MAC team. But no, not one, but BOTH of these motherfuckers are playing this game as if their lives depend on it, and naturally, Isaac Brown just broke a long one. If a fanbase is hoping their players are going to play, no matter how unlikely, just call me. I'll write a game up against them and their guys will get in there!
 
vegasvice said:
According to Gemini AI. Might explain reason for huge move to 11 1/2

What players have opted out for the Toledo football team from bowl game





Heading into the 2025 Boca Raton Bowl against Louisville, the Toledo Rockets have been significantly impacted by roster departures and injuries.

Several key starters have officially opted out after entering the transfer portal, primarily on the defensive side of the ball:

Toledo Opt-Outs (Transfer Portal)​

  • Malachi Davis (DE): A major loss for the defensive line; he led the team in sacks this season.
  • Braden Awls (S): A First-Team All-MAC safety who recorded five interceptions this year.
  • Chris D’Appolonia (LB): A Third-Team All-MAC linebacker and a critical part of their run defense.
  • Stephen Gales (LT): The starting left tackle is also expected to be unavailable.
Click to expand...
Thanks Vegas. We knew about the defensive guys before the move. I didn't know about the LT though.
 
11. @Hawaii -117 ML v Cal (BOL) : This is a home game for Hawaii as it'll take place at their temporary complex in Honolulu. There's a pretty simple reason for this play. Hawaii is 12-1 ATS at home since the beginning of last season, including 6-0 this year by an average cover of 14 points per game. Cal has played the tougher schedule, but Hawaii has major advantages on 3rd down and I would suggest that I think has the edge on both lines of scrimmage as well. The 'bows also have the edge in special teams and sport the "Tokyo Toe" , kicker Kansei Matsuzawa, who was named 1st team All American after going 25 for 26 on the season. Cal is highly unlikely to be able to run the ball on Hawaii(they couldn't run it on anyone all year) so that will make the freshman QB 100% responsible for moving the ball and Hawaii can rush the passer. I should also point out that these two had 2 common opponents, San Diego State and Stanford. Now, I usually don't put a ton of stock in common opponents or the transitive property, but Cal got shut out by San Diego State 34-0 and Hawaii clubbed the Aztecs 38-6. In addition to that, Hawaii beat Stanford 23-20 and Stanford beat Cal by 21. So there's that. Hawaii is pretty much an auto play at home. Let's not complicate this.
 
If WKU would have started McIvor, that game wouldn't have been close. Braylon Braxton was BAAAAAAAAAD. Yikes. Southern Miss was up in the 4th quarter, but they were without a doubt the wrong side on that one.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top