Bloodhound Wk Seven

bloodhound

bloodhound

Sniffing out wins
wk 1- 33-38-1 -11.7U
wk 2- 29-14-2 +19.3U
wk 3- 16-16-1 +2.2U
wk 4- 30-29-1 +7.6U
wk 5- 27-27-1 +14.15U
wk 6- 31-24-1 +13.51U

I want have much on the open as these lines are very disappointing and not agreeing with what I wanted to play at all. I will have to dig much deeper. There is no need to press this wk
GL

Tues


Thur

West Kentucky -26 -120 x2

Fri

BoiseSt -8 -120 x2


Sat


NC -13 -120 x4

BallSt -16 -120 x2

Temple -17 -110 x2

Utah -6 -110 x2

Miami -7 x2

Marshall -6 -120 x4

SoMiss -7 -120 x2
 
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I saw several I liked today, Blood.

Michigan -6x (I like teams clicking on all cylinders against teams struggling. Only MSU edge is at QB. They miss Narduzzi)
Baylor -20 (Revenge game for Baylor. Enough said)
N Dame -4 (A lot of reasons I like this one, but shorthand, it's revenge, N Dame is a better team, and SC will have interim coach).

Had a good week 6. Won my multiple-unit bets and the only two I lost were single unit bets.

Had some luck, I admit. Miami was a x2 bet and I was convinced Cook was sitting it out. Instead he played and ran wild. Would not have bet it if I had known he was playing.

Plus, we have talked many times about how much I hate laying points on the road and how bad a bet I consider it to be, but I couldn't discipline myself and had made four bets laying road points this year and was 0-3-1 (and lucky to get the tie). I was dying to bet Georgia but hesitated, trying to be disciplined, but finally crumpled. Just lucky because by the time I called the guy had closed the game.

Made one blunder that it is unacceptable. Bet W Virg on Sunday, found out mid-week that Joseph was out. Should have bought that one back immediately, but vacillated until game time, then stupidly let it ride.

So I'm happy I won, but made enough errors to remind me I need to think better.

Surprised you didn't see more you like. Looking forward to your thinking on my picks or any other games this week.

Week 6
Utah -6 x6 Tie
Okla -13 Lose
Texas +17 Win
Texas +17x x4 Win
W Virg -6 Lose
Miami (Fla) + 8 x2 Win
BCV/Wake u 37 x2 Win
Pitt/Virg u 48 x4 Win
Money Line
Boise State Win
Bama Win

Week 6
7-2-1
Season
35-13
Multi-Unit Bets
15-3
Max Bets
0-0
Units For Year
+42.7
 
TuesDayNite FootBall
Not in love with either play but prob worth a unit
ArkiSt -3 -130 x1(bought half)
Over 59 x 130 x 1
Here is how this game breaks down.I hi-light some important pts
GLTA
After missing three games, the Red Wolves expect to get starting QB Fredi Knighten (groin) back for Tuesday. The only new injury for either team is Knighten's teammate OL Daniel Keith, who is doubtful with an ankle injury.
Arkansas State's offense has been strong this season with 30.4 PPG on 394 total YPG, and these numbers have increased to 42.0 PPG and 451 total YPG over the past three contests. The team has done this through great balance with 193 rushing YPG on 4.4 YPC and 202 passing YPG on 6.6 YPA.
Senior RB Michael Gordon is coming off a monster performance against Idaho where he ran for 221 yards on 26 carries (8.5 YPC) and three touchdowns. Gordon was also effective in last year's romp over South Alabama with 77 rushing yards (3.7 YPC) and a touchdown.
Senior QB Knighten was the best player on the field in that 2014 meeting with 266 total yards (186 passing, 80 rushing) and 3 total TD. His return will be key for this team moving forward, as his statistics this year are so bad (19-of-46, 41% completions, 183 yds, 4.0 YPA, 2 TD, 3 INT) because they were against Power 5 opponents USC and Missouri. Another senior, WR JD McKissic, is the third-most important part of this offense with a team-high 27 catches, including at least four receptions in each game.
Defensively, this unit has surrendered 32.2 PPG on 391 total YPG, and these numbers have ballooned to 46.0 PPG and 493 total YPG on the road. The biggest deficiency has been stopping the run (170 YPG on 4.8 YPC), as the Wolves' 221 passing YPG allowed is on just 53% completions and 5.7 YPA. They have also done a great job of forcing mistakes with 10 turnovers in the past four contests, including three last week. This trend could continue against a Jaguars team with 11 giveaways, including 3 TO in three different games so far.
South Alabama turnovers have limited the offense to 22.6 PPG and 375 total YPG this year. Time of possession is a subpar 27:59 average with the ground game churning out only 138 YPG on 3.8 YPC. But sophomore RB Xavier Johnson has been outstanding versus non-Power 5 opponents with 46 carries for 354 yards (7.7 YPC) and 4 TD in three such games. Johnson carried the football just seven times for 28 yards in last year's loss at Arkansas State.
QB Cody Clements (52% completions, 1,131 pass yds, 7 TD, 6 INT) has eclipsed 200 passing yards in four straight contests but the senior has not completed more than 58% of his passes in any game so far. He has relied mostly on two targets, with junior TE Gerald Everett (23 rec, 350 yds, 5 TD) and junior WR Josh Magee (13 rec, 326 yds) combining for 57% of the South Alabama receiving yards this season. No other receiver even has 100 yards in 2015.
On defense, the Jaguars have allowed 32.6 PPG on 405 total YPG, and have been especially weak in stopping the run (205 YPG on 5.1 YPC). Defending the pass hasn't been much better though with opponents completing 58% of their throws for 200 YPG (6.7 YPA). But after forcing only two turnovers in a three-game stretch, South Alabama recorded three takeaways in their upset at Troy last week.
 
GL this week my friend, both in the woods and on the action. What is the prey this week in the woods? Also have been eyeing Ball St. this week as a couple of sets of numbers I look at were in the 24 range. Interested in your thoughts on that one.
 
Tim, I initially made BallSt a 21 pt fav which was enough for me to put two U on buying a half to 16. I now see some 15/15.5 #s so looks like some disagree with me.
Offensively, the game matches up the Ball State Cardinals No. 77-ranked offense (28.17 PPG) against a Georgia State defense that ranks No. 117 at 38.8 PPG. Ball State passing attack has averaged 243.33 yards per game, less than the Georgia State give up through the air (289.4 YPG on average). Defensively, Georgia State features the league's No. 84-rated road run defense, allowing 197.5 yards per game. Ball State, meanwhile, ranks No. 112 in rushing offense at home. If U weigh the competition of both tms both sets of #s above are skewed and I like Ball st in a 45-21 type of game GaSt has yielded like 46ppg and I see no reason BallSt want get that.


Hunting trophy bear this wk. As tired as i feel after two days in the woods, this may be my last yr.It has become a chore to tramp thru the woods...and dangerous

GL my friend
 
Blood thanks for your thoughts on Ball State. I agree and think they should be able to light up the scoreboard in this one. I know how much you enjoy being in the woods but understand how physically demanding it is and like you said dangerous. Hope you get some rest and feel reinvigorated tomorrow and enjoy yourself.
 
TahoeLegend said:
I saw several I liked today, Blood.

Michigan -6x (I like teams clicking on all cylinders against teams struggling. Only MSU edge is at QB. They miss Narduzzi)
Baylor -20 (Revenge game for Baylor. Enough said)
N Dame -4 (A lot of reasons I like this one, but shorthand, it's revenge, N Dame is a better team, and SC will have interim coach).

Had a good week 6. Won my multiple-unit bets and the only two I lost were single unit bets.

Had some luck, I admit. Miami was a x2 bet and I was convinced Cook was sitting it out. Instead he played and ran wild. Would not have bet it if I had known he was playing.

Plus, we have talked many times about how much I hate laying points on the road and how bad a bet I consider it to be, but I couldn't discipline myself and had made four bets laying road points this year and was 0-3-1 (and lucky to get the tie). I was dying to bet Georgia but hesitated, trying to be disciplined, but finally crumpled. Just lucky because by the time I called the guy had closed the game.

Made one blunder that it is unacceptable. Bet W Virg on Sunday, found out mid-week that Joseph was out. Should have bought that one back immediately, but vacillated until game time, then stupidly let it ride.

So I'm happy I won, but made enough errors to remind me I need to think better.

Surprised you didn't see more you like. Looking forward to your thinking on my picks or any other games this week.

Week 6
Utah -6 x6 Tie
Okla -13 Lose
Texas +17 Win
Texas +17x x4 Win
W Virg -6 Lose
Miami (Fla) + 8 x2 Win
BCV/Wake u 37 x2 Win
Pitt/Virg u 48 x4 Win
Money Line
Boise State Win
Bama Win

Week 6
7-2-1
Season
35-13
Multi-Unit Bets
15-3
Max Bets
0-0
Units For Year
+42.7
Click to expand...

Congrats on another great wk Tahoe. I havent had time to figure wk 6 yet so dont know exactly where I stand
I layed off on Mich this wk. Mich -8.5 presently and if it goes to 10 I will be on the dog here in this rivalry. No doubt the stat say that Mich has a big total rushing yds adv but I like State and didnt jump on the open as I new others would drive up the line for me.I will have some beer $ on State ML also as they will play hard and keep this one close imo.
I will have Baylor in a big par bought way down. I like ND with U.
As U know, I didnt like WV any any time last wk and was surprised to see them come back and make a game out of it.
U do a very good job learning from ur mistakes Tahoe. Keepup the good work and hope u find all winners this wk
:cheers:
 
added some plays earlier but havent had time to post so dont jump on my lines.

Thur
Kentucky +3 -130 x1
Aub/Kent Under 53 -130 x half

added 3 more to make a total of 5 U on West Kentucky -29 x3

Stanford -6 x4


Fri
added Houston -17 x1 ...like it small to -20

on Boise -8 x2 on the open, I will leave this at two , made the game 12

added UNLV-6 -120 x2 ..made this 10.UNLV playing bettter than record/stats look
 
ThurNite Shits&Grins combo par

  1. 10/15/2015 8:25 PM NFL Football 103 Atlanta Falcons* +7 -680 vs New Orleans Saints
  2. 10/15/2015 8:25 PM NFL Football 103 Atlanta Falcons/New Orleans Saints* Over 41 -600
  3. 10/15/2015 7:00 PM College Football 106 Kentucky* +10½ -460 vs Auburn
  4. 10/15/2015 7:00 PM College Football 105 Auburn/Kentucky* Under 68 -650
  5. 10/15/2015 7:30 PM College Football 107 Western Kentucky* -24 -600 vs North Texas
  6. 10/15/2015 7:30 PM College Extra Football 301 Alabama State* -900 vs Arkansas Pine Bluff
  7. 10/15/2015 7:05 PM NHL Hockey 4 Pittsburgh Penguins* +1½ -610 vs Ottawa Senators
  8. 10/15/2015 7:35 PM NHL Hockey 8 Florida Panthers* +1½ -670 vs Buffalo Sabres
Risking 100 To Win 226


par

  1. 10/15/2015 7:00 PM College Football 106 Kentucky* +10½ -460 vs Auburn
  2. 10/15/2015 7:00 PM College Football 105 Auburn/Kentucky* Under 67 -550
  3. 10/15/2015 7:30 PM College Football 107 Western Kentucky* -27 -325 vs North Texas
Risking 200 To Win 178
 
I like your side on Ball, Marshall, and So Miss, mr hound.
I don't understand the single digit spread on Marshall.
What am I missing ?.
Also, Tulsa getting 13 1/2 from ECU, up from 10 1/2.
Why shouldn't I like Tulas at that number , and/or should I buy the hook ?
Thanks and Best of luck as always :shake::cigarguy::cheers3:
 
bull said:
I like your side on Ball, Marshall, and So Miss, mr hound.
I don't understand the single digit spread on Marshall.
What am I missing ?.
Also, Tulsa getting 13 1/2 from ECU, up from 10 1/2.
Why shouldn't I like Tulas at that number , and/or should I buy the hook ?
Thanks and Best of luck as always :shake::cigarguy::cheers3:
Click to expand...

MrBull, Glad we agree on those 3!
As u may remember, I keep two sets of # and one set says Marshal by 9, the other Mar by 16.Some notes on this game, Marshall outscoring their Opponents by 14p/g but their D is giving up 26 more y/g and last wk they but benefited by +4turnovers. SoMiss out gained them really bad. FSU has a very mobile decent QB but they turn the ball over a lot.And they were pretty fortunate to be KentSst a few wks ago.The # is presently 5 and I think they cover that
As far as ECar/Tulsa, I will be on ECar -10 and Over 73. Sorry, havent had time to post much this week.my #s on this game were 13 and 17, If U like Tulsa, which is a very dangerous tm and tuff to keep up with, I would bu the hook and get +14
My general feeling on on buying pts,hook in this case, I always buy the hook if it gets me to the next higher 'key number', or lower # on the fav. I am a big believer of playing key #s in ALL sports and buying pts to what I feel comfortable with.
BOL pard


ksimpsc said:
get it blood
Click to expand...
Thanks ksimpsc, Lets have a big wk
GL
 
Nice call on Stanford last night, Blood.

Sticking with the three picks I made Sunday. Thought that Michigan/Michigan State game might go up enough I could try and middle it, but didn’t move much.

Good luck to you and the other pickers. Looks like a great week of football coming up.

Week 7
Baylor -20
N Dame -4
Michigan –6x
Clem/BC under 38 (I’ve won 5 straight weeks on BC under. It’s possible their D is getting worn down emotionally from playing lights out, but still losing every game, but I got 38 yesterday so I’m staying on them)
LSU -7
Money Line
TCU
Temple
 
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TahoeLegend said:
Nice call on Stanford last night, Blood.

Sticking with the three picks I made Sunday. Thought that Michigan/Michigan State game might go up enough I could try and middle it, but didn’t move much.

Good luck to you and the other pickers. Looks like a great week of football coming up.

Week 7
Baylor -20
N Dame -4
Michigan –6x
Clem/BC under 38 (I’ve won 5 straight weeks on BC under. It’s possible their D is getting worn down emotionally from playing lights out, but still losing every game, but I got 38 yesterday so I’m staying on them)
LSU -7
Money Line
TCU
Temple
Click to expand...
Thanks, I like them All GL Tahoe

50cent said:
Good luck bh...
Click to expand...
GL to U 50cent

bull said:
Thank you so much, mr hound
Click to expand...
Have a Big day MrBull
 
adding a bunch of stuff this morn, buying pts on many and adding to existing plays
early stuff
125 Marshall* -3 -110 vs Florida Atlantic...added two more @3 for a total of 6U

par
120 Toledo* -20½ -350 /125 Marshall* -3 -110 x2/190 I like Marshall at this # a bunch and buying Toledo give me a little added security

par
128 Connecticut* +4 -350 / 132 Middle Tennessee State* -400 200/124 I think Uconn wins by 10 and MidTenn by 12

par
124 Central Michigan* -230/155 Northern Illinois* -9 -300 200/184 I have CMich winning only by 6 and NoIll by a bucnch but I feel better buying it down

155 Northern Illinois* -14 vs Miami Ohio 200/133 I like NoIll a lot but need to leave funds for all the rest. This will be a key game in a lot of parlays today as I think they win by 21

back after i refill my coffee cup with a litttle brandy :) ...cold here in the mnts this morn
 
Good morning BH,
Another heads up on my Mizzou Tigers. Looks like our true freshman will start his first road game.
I really don't see us getting more than 10 unless our defense scores.
Expect a repeat of last years game in Columbia. Georgia big.
Hey at least I was there to see MU best S Carolina a couple weeks ago!
Good luck today.
MrEd
 
par 3 tm
140 Wisconsin* -13 -550 / 155 Northern Illinois* -7 -500 /205 Mississippi* -420 300/228

par 3 tm
169 Pittsburgh U* +14 -685/176 Baylor* -13 -325/ 182 East Carolina* -6 -395 200/177
 
ksimpsc said:
Get it blood
Click to expand...
Thanks KSimp, U to buddy
Go GameCocks

MrEd said:
Good morning BH,
Another heads up on my Mizzou Tigers. Looks like our true freshman will start his first road game.
I really don't see us getting more than 10 unless our defense scores.
Expect a repeat of last years game in Columbia. Georgia big.
Hey at least I was there to see MU best S Carolina a couple weeks ago!
Good luck today.
MrEd
Click to expand...
I was waiting for ur input MrED, I will take care of that. I made it something like 31-9. Ga is still a good tm without Chubb and maybe the toughest tm Mizzou has seen this season
Thanks and BOL my friend

added
166 Georgia* -13 -140 vs Missouri x4
165 Missouri/Georgia* Under 49 -150 x 2
would play this Under for more but I am afraid that Ga may try and take their frustrations out on Mizzou today
 
159 Alabama* -3 -140 vs Texas A&M x2
159 Alabama/Texas A&M* Over 54 -115 x1
Never know about his game but I 'feel' Bama wins by a td. at 54 on the total I dont think it worth more than one U
 
added two more here
134 Ball State* -13 -110 vs Georgia State x2 total of 4 U
Discussed this one above with Tim

154 Ohio* -3 -120 vs Western Michigan x2 I dont see this # at all. Looks to me like the BobCats have better matchups in almost every position I think they win by 10
 
163 Nebraska* +115 vs Minnesota U x1 ...I just dont understand this line at all. Even on the rd I think Neb is the much better tm. Neb could easily be 6-0 and I think they show it today winning bt a td



Wise, I am way behind on capping todays games, going thru each of them now So far no big Units on totals but still looking
GL
 
173 Michigan State/Michigan* Under 45 -138 x2 ...this looks like a 38 pt or less game to me
173 Michigan State* +7½ -120 vs Michigan x half...I just like this close. Even with their injuries State is still a good tm and were favored in preseason...wanted ten, I'll take the 7.5 but small
 
Added Baylor/WV over 75 x2 this morning, Blood,


Good luck. So many good games today I can't figure out which one is going to be the best.
 
par 3 tm
172 Miami Florida* -155/187 Charlotte* +7½ -190/211/ San Diego State* +7 -215 50/134


par

204 Notre Dame* -235/210 New Mexico* -220 / 214 Washington U* -145 50/125
 
some small plays
157 Air Force* -3 -115 vs Colorado State x half
187 Charlotte* +5 -115 vs Old Dominion x half
207 Penn State* +19 -110 vs Ohio State x half
 
2nd half
all x1
120 Toledo* -11 -105 vs Eastern Michigan for 2nd Half
125 Marshall* pk -110 vs Florida Atlantic for 2nd Half
131 Florida International* +7 -115 vs Middle Tennessee State for 2nd Half
145 Texas Tech* -13 -140 vs Kansas for 2nd Half x2
154 Ohio* -3 +115 vs Western Michigan for 2nd Half
176 Baylor* -9 -110 vs West Virginia for 2nd Half x2
 
2nd half
181 Tulsa* +7 -120 vs East Carolina for 2nd Half x half
205 Mississippi* -6 -135 vs Memphis for 2nd Half x2
 
160 Texas A&M* Under 25½ -110 vs Alabama x2 stole this from gps. I think it prob worth more than two U but........
 
2nd half
159 Alabama* -½ -105 vs Texas A&M for 2nd Half x1
159 Alabama/Texas A&M* Under 28 -125 for 2nd Half x 1
 
par with pts bought

  1. 10/17/2015 7:00 PM College Football 136 Clemson* -6 -800 vs Boston College
  2. 10/17/2015 7:00 PM College Football 144 North Carolina* -6 -750 vs Wake Forest
  3. 10/17/2015 7:30 PM College Football 166 Georgia* -750 vs Missouri
  4. 10/17/2015 7:00 PM College Football 199 TCU* -9 -700 vs Iowa State
  5. 10/17/2015 8:00 PM College Football 208 Ohio State* -7 -700 vs Penn State
Risking 500 To Win 445
 
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