Last Chance Value Picks for Betting Bills vs. 49ers
Josh Allen
Over/Under 265.5 Passing Yards
Over/Under 30.5 Rushing Yards
Josh Allen’s Passing
The key for Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen’s success or failure tonight will be the impact that returning or absent players have.
One absent player will be wide receiver John Brown.
Brown was one of Allen’ favorite wide receivers, which is why Allen typically favored Brown over fellow wide receiver Cole Beasley when both were healthy.
So without Brown, Allen becomes a less productive quarterback. He averages 306 passing yards per game when Brown plays and 238 passing yards when Brown is absent.
49ers Pass Defense
San Francisco ranks fourth overall in allowing 206.5 passing yards per game despite having suffered a number of injuries in its secondary.
What is already one of the best NFL pass defenses is even better with the return of cornerback Richard Sherman.
Albeit in a limited number of snaps, Sherman is allowing a 52.9 passer rating when targeted.
Sherman’s return helped the 49ers feel rejuvenated after their late bye week.
They limited Ram quarterback Jared Goff to his worst output on the season as he mustered 198 passing yards while throwing zero touchdowns to two interceptions. His passer rating was 52.9.
Josh Allen Running
It gets said from time to time that the 49ers struggle against mobile quarterbacks.
But it turns out that these struggles are confined to the earliest part of the season.
In the meantime, the 49ers have adjusted. They’ve faced two mobile quarterbacks since that early phase of the season and have garnered success.
One mobile quarterback was Russell Wilson. They limited him to 23 rushing yards, which is 12 below his season average.
Cam Newton was the other mobile quarterback. San Francisco kept Cam to 19 rushing yards although he loves to run the ball and averages a significantly higher rush average.
Best Bet: Josh Allen Under 265.5 Passing Yards at -114 with Bovada & Josh Allen Under 30.5 Rushing Yards at -114 with Bovada
Buffalo Bills
Team Total Over/Under 23.5 Points
Allen Trend
This team total play builds off of my Josh Allen prop bets.
When Allen accrues fewer than 266 passing yards, Buffalo averages 21.67 points per game.
So we should expect Buffalo’s team total under to hit because the Allen passing yards under will hit.
Buffalo Running Backs
But Allen won’t be the only reason why Buffalo struggles to score.
San Francisco owns one of the NFL’s best run defenses as it ranks 10th in average rushing yards allowed per game.
The 49er run defense ranks higher per its DVOA, which is a metric that accounts for opponent quality.
Lately, San Francisco's’ run defense has been well-tested. On November 15, it limited New Orleans star Alvin Kamara to 15 rushing yards on eight attempts.
It’s true that the 49ers have been vulnerable to opposing running backs coming out of the backfield.
But the Bills lack the personnel to exploit this potential vulnerability. Their top four pass-catchers are all wide receivers.
So Buffalo will feature its committee of running backs, who are limited by poor offensive line play.
Even with a numerical advantage in the box while the offense spreads out its opponent due to its spread formation, Buffalo’s offensive line struggles to get sufficient push against opposing defensive linemen.
Buffalo’s poor offensive linemen contribute to Buffalo ranking 23rd in rushing yards per game.
So the success of the Bill offense will hinge on Allen’s performance, which is bad news for Buffalo.
Time of Possession
Buffalo will also have trouble scoring because San Francisco excels at keeping the ball.
The 49ers own the fifth-highest average time of possession.
One reason why they can prolong drives against Buffalo is the health of their wide receivers.
Speedster Deebo Samuel is fit. Brandon Aiyuk also returns after an injury interrupted his hot streak.
Especially against Buffalo’s lower-ranked pass defense, both guys can reach 100 yards receiving as Samuel did in his last game and Aiyuk almost did in each of his last three games.
Best Bet: Bills Under 23.5 Points at -120 with BetOnline
Josh Allen
Over/Under 265.5 Passing Yards
Over/Under 30.5 Rushing Yards
Josh Allen’s Passing
The key for Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen’s success or failure tonight will be the impact that returning or absent players have.
One absent player will be wide receiver John Brown.
Brown was one of Allen’ favorite wide receivers, which is why Allen typically favored Brown over fellow wide receiver Cole Beasley when both were healthy.
So without Brown, Allen becomes a less productive quarterback. He averages 306 passing yards per game when Brown plays and 238 passing yards when Brown is absent.
49ers Pass Defense
San Francisco ranks fourth overall in allowing 206.5 passing yards per game despite having suffered a number of injuries in its secondary.
What is already one of the best NFL pass defenses is even better with the return of cornerback Richard Sherman.
Albeit in a limited number of snaps, Sherman is allowing a 52.9 passer rating when targeted.
Sherman’s return helped the 49ers feel rejuvenated after their late bye week.
They limited Ram quarterback Jared Goff to his worst output on the season as he mustered 198 passing yards while throwing zero touchdowns to two interceptions. His passer rating was 52.9.
Josh Allen Running
It gets said from time to time that the 49ers struggle against mobile quarterbacks.
But it turns out that these struggles are confined to the earliest part of the season.
In the meantime, the 49ers have adjusted. They’ve faced two mobile quarterbacks since that early phase of the season and have garnered success.
One mobile quarterback was Russell Wilson. They limited him to 23 rushing yards, which is 12 below his season average.
Cam Newton was the other mobile quarterback. San Francisco kept Cam to 19 rushing yards although he loves to run the ball and averages a significantly higher rush average.
Best Bet: Josh Allen Under 265.5 Passing Yards at -114 with Bovada & Josh Allen Under 30.5 Rushing Yards at -114 with Bovada
Buffalo Bills
Team Total Over/Under 23.5 Points
Allen Trend
This team total play builds off of my Josh Allen prop bets.
When Allen accrues fewer than 266 passing yards, Buffalo averages 21.67 points per game.
So we should expect Buffalo’s team total under to hit because the Allen passing yards under will hit.
Buffalo Running Backs
But Allen won’t be the only reason why Buffalo struggles to score.
San Francisco owns one of the NFL’s best run defenses as it ranks 10th in average rushing yards allowed per game.
The 49er run defense ranks higher per its DVOA, which is a metric that accounts for opponent quality.
Lately, San Francisco's’ run defense has been well-tested. On November 15, it limited New Orleans star Alvin Kamara to 15 rushing yards on eight attempts.
It’s true that the 49ers have been vulnerable to opposing running backs coming out of the backfield.
But the Bills lack the personnel to exploit this potential vulnerability. Their top four pass-catchers are all wide receivers.
So Buffalo will feature its committee of running backs, who are limited by poor offensive line play.
Even with a numerical advantage in the box while the offense spreads out its opponent due to its spread formation, Buffalo’s offensive line struggles to get sufficient push against opposing defensive linemen.
Buffalo’s poor offensive linemen contribute to Buffalo ranking 23rd in rushing yards per game.
So the success of the Bill offense will hinge on Allen’s performance, which is bad news for Buffalo.
Time of Possession
Buffalo will also have trouble scoring because San Francisco excels at keeping the ball.
The 49ers own the fifth-highest average time of possession.
One reason why they can prolong drives against Buffalo is the health of their wide receivers.
Speedster Deebo Samuel is fit. Brandon Aiyuk also returns after an injury interrupted his hot streak.
Especially against Buffalo’s lower-ranked pass defense, both guys can reach 100 yards receiving as Samuel did in his last game and Aiyuk almost did in each of his last three games.
Best Bet: Bills Under 23.5 Points at -120 with BetOnline
