Sorry for the delay getting this up, backwards week for me so far...
I only want to look back at one game last week, and that is the Hoosiers vs the Spartans battle in Bloomington...
This was a knee-knocker, in which MSU actually covered the huge public play spread. You have to give them a lot of credit for pulling this out vs an inferior opponent before a bye week and two weeks before the state championship. With that being said, there was a lot to not like about this performance. They offense struggled mightily here. Thorne was not good, Walker was well below average and their only drive over 50 yards was the one in the 4th that they stretched the lead to 5 points...
7
23
-5
7
-1
6
halftime
46
22
39
60
-2
3
16(end of game)
That is not good.
Looking back, the Rutgers game was all explosive 60+ yard scoring plays. So, this team has had some issues recently sustaining drives. Go back to the Nebraska game in the 2h and they were almost completely shutdown as well. So, the reason I want to look at this is for capping purposes as they finally hit the meat of their schedule vs the B10 East Division. They have some dynamic playmakers, and Thorne has seemingly played the part well so far this season... we know you can throw on them but that requires good passing teams as well...
Just some food for thought...
Okay, on to the new week...
We are in the middle of Bye Week SZN as we have only 5 conference games this week...
Wisconsin @ Purdue
As always, I await to hear from @PaintCrew . That was obviously a great win last week at Kinnick. I don't think that was all that surprising as Iowa as a #2 team might have been one of the funnier things in recent memory. We all saw them getting it taken to them vs Penn State. Injuries happen though. Now they come home to face a very tough defense and a pretty incompetent offense. Mertz is back, as is Ferguson and they ran the ball solid the last few weeks... but they definitely do not put a lot of fear into the opposing defenses right now. Wisconsin is a favorite here and we have the obvious letdown spot here. I don't know, this feels like a 4th quarter game to me... curious on how Purdue counters that front of Wisconsin. The total is 40 or so for a reason.
Illinois @ Penn State
Clifford is out, although Mr Peanut has been very vague about his status in general. Roberson wasn't good in relief of Clifford at all. I believe I read this is a bit of an open competition right now, but someone more in the know feel free to correct me. As far as the Penn State offense goes, you know how I feel about their running game, it isn't up to par this year. They have a great passing game with Clifford, but obviously he is out for a bit. Luckily, they had a bye and now get a reeling Illini team who's coach isn't exactly singing their praises...
Hard pass on anything in this game form myself...
Maryland @ Minnesota
The Gophers got started early last week and finished strong. Despite the injuries and rough start to the season they have rebounded nicely to get themselves into position for a bowl game. Maryland are who they are.... a 2nd half of the season struggle team and not very good away from College Park. The line here is 5 ish or so and that is appropriate with all due respect to a not very stout Gopher defense. This would be a good narrative change for the Terps, but that isn't something I would want to bet on, right? The total has a bit of interest for myself and will be looked at a bit deeper (I'd expect some points here). Obviously weather could be in play here.
Ohio State @ Indiana
I quasi home game here for the Buckeyes, who are starting to roll as I predicted a few weeks back that the peak would come as they got into November. Obviously the competition hasn't been great but they are executing. The issues they have at times are on defense, but that is no problem vs this lackluster offense. Of all the variety of plays here, I think for once I actually like the side the best. Weather will be looked at, but I'll have play(s) on this game, no doubt.
Northwestern @ Michigan
This is a warm-up game for the Wolverines before the state championship. Jim indicated some injured guys may be back, but I doubt it. That sounds like coach-speak to me. The Wildcats had a nice win last week vs an ever struggling Rutgers squad, but overall this is still a pretty bad Fitz team. The wins are Indiana St, Ohio U(sorry @Marsski ) and the Scarlet Knights. They got boat raced in Lincoln a few weeks ago and obviously struggled on defense a lot vs MSU and Duke as well. You always need to take things one game at a time, but Michigan should cruise here and hopefully get JJ some snaps. With regards to betting, this is tough. I can see to schools of thought here (run run run and get to the finish line quick) and get a big lead early and let JJ actually run the offense for a bit in the 2h which has risk/reward possibilities. We shall see.
I only want to look back at one game last week, and that is the Hoosiers vs the Spartans battle in Bloomington...
This was a knee-knocker, in which MSU actually covered the huge public play spread. You have to give them a lot of credit for pulling this out vs an inferior opponent before a bye week and two weeks before the state championship. With that being said, there was a lot to not like about this performance. They offense struggled mightily here. Thorne was not good, Walker was well below average and their only drive over 50 yards was the one in the 4th that they stretched the lead to 5 points...
7
23
-5
7
-1
6
halftime
46
22
39
60
-2
3
16(end of game)
That is not good.
Looking back, the Rutgers game was all explosive 60+ yard scoring plays. So, this team has had some issues recently sustaining drives. Go back to the Nebraska game in the 2h and they were almost completely shutdown as well. So, the reason I want to look at this is for capping purposes as they finally hit the meat of their schedule vs the B10 East Division. They have some dynamic playmakers, and Thorne has seemingly played the part well so far this season... we know you can throw on them but that requires good passing teams as well...
Just some food for thought...
Okay, on to the new week...
We are in the middle of Bye Week SZN as we have only 5 conference games this week...
Wisconsin @ Purdue
As always, I await to hear from @PaintCrew . That was obviously a great win last week at Kinnick. I don't think that was all that surprising as Iowa as a #2 team might have been one of the funnier things in recent memory. We all saw them getting it taken to them vs Penn State. Injuries happen though. Now they come home to face a very tough defense and a pretty incompetent offense. Mertz is back, as is Ferguson and they ran the ball solid the last few weeks... but they definitely do not put a lot of fear into the opposing defenses right now. Wisconsin is a favorite here and we have the obvious letdown spot here. I don't know, this feels like a 4th quarter game to me... curious on how Purdue counters that front of Wisconsin. The total is 40 or so for a reason.
Illinois @ Penn State
Clifford is out, although Mr Peanut has been very vague about his status in general. Roberson wasn't good in relief of Clifford at all. I believe I read this is a bit of an open competition right now, but someone more in the know feel free to correct me. As far as the Penn State offense goes, you know how I feel about their running game, it isn't up to par this year. They have a great passing game with Clifford, but obviously he is out for a bit. Luckily, they had a bye and now get a reeling Illini team who's coach isn't exactly singing their praises...
Hard pass on anything in this game form myself...
Maryland @ Minnesota
The Gophers got started early last week and finished strong. Despite the injuries and rough start to the season they have rebounded nicely to get themselves into position for a bowl game. Maryland are who they are.... a 2nd half of the season struggle team and not very good away from College Park. The line here is 5 ish or so and that is appropriate with all due respect to a not very stout Gopher defense. This would be a good narrative change for the Terps, but that isn't something I would want to bet on, right? The total has a bit of interest for myself and will be looked at a bit deeper (I'd expect some points here). Obviously weather could be in play here.
Ohio State @ Indiana
I quasi home game here for the Buckeyes, who are starting to roll as I predicted a few weeks back that the peak would come as they got into November. Obviously the competition hasn't been great but they are executing. The issues they have at times are on defense, but that is no problem vs this lackluster offense. Of all the variety of plays here, I think for once I actually like the side the best. Weather will be looked at, but I'll have play(s) on this game, no doubt.
Northwestern @ Michigan
This is a warm-up game for the Wolverines before the state championship. Jim indicated some injured guys may be back, but I doubt it. That sounds like coach-speak to me. The Wildcats had a nice win last week vs an ever struggling Rutgers squad, but overall this is still a pretty bad Fitz team. The wins are Indiana St, Ohio U(sorry @Marsski ) and the Scarlet Knights. They got boat raced in Lincoln a few weeks ago and obviously struggled on defense a lot vs MSU and Duke as well. You always need to take things one game at a time, but Michigan should cruise here and hopefully get JJ some snaps. With regards to betting, this is tough. I can see to schools of thought here (run run run and get to the finish line quick) and get a big lead early and let JJ actually run the offense for a bit in the 2h which has risk/reward possibilities. We shall see.
