BIG Week 6...

B.A.R.

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Here we are, getting into the meat of the conference schedule now...

October is here and we have a lot of great matchups these next four weeks...


Last week


I'd say the game in East Lansing went as expected. There were a lot of points and Western passed all day as they do and many expected. On the other side, Michigan State scored most times they wanted to and were equally dangerous on the ground as through the air. Would I be concerned as a Spartan fan about the pass defense? Sure, a bit. King also got after them quite a bit through the air. With that being said, this conference doesn't have a lot of strong passing teams so they should only be challenged that way in 2-3 games down the stretch.

Impressive effort by Ohio State vs Rutgers. Maybe sitting for a week and watching helped Stroud? Dunno. Rutgers is not a bad team but they simply got demoralized here. As far as Ohio goes, I'd expect them to keep improving and be in full gear as we get past Halloween.

Penn St took care of Indiana easily. This Hoosiers team is starting to regress and really are a hard team to watch at this point. My look in this game was to check in on the Penn St running game. It was seemingly okay, but take away the 44 yard run plus Clifford's yards and it is still a bit substandard. The Hoosier defense is no pushover though.

All I know of the Purdue and Minnesota battle is some pics my buddy showed me that went to the game. Otherwise, the box score winning team lost the game. I am guessing these two play 10 times and Purdue wins 7 of them. I'll let the resident experts chime in though.

Iowa absolutely smashed Maryland. Is this the start of the annual swoon? We shall see...

Nebraska had no problems with one of the worst P5 teams in the country. Despite the opponent, that is an impressive performance after that heartbreaker the week before + the Oklahoma game the week before.

To the local game we go.... Wisconsin is not a good team this year, on one side of the ball. The offense is awful. Mertz is somewhat shell shocked at this point and they do not have that work horse running back that so often leads this team. On the other side, that is a very good defense. I'd keep capping that defense to lose interest in 2H's of losses a bit though. We've seen this before. Michigan had a very good gameplan. They knew that running the ball would be had but they were honest enough with it. Cade managed the game well, per usual, and gained confidence as the game went in the passing game. The flea flicker was a great call. I loved the idea of going on 4th early on(although the 2nd one was a horrible play call). They wanted to play from the lead and did just that. Some might be curious about JJ getting snaps early in the second half. That is simply about bringing the RPO element to the offense. Kid is gonna be a star. Good win, in a place we haven't won since I was 21. Wild.



This week


The Situation Trophy is up for grabs in Jersey in what is a weird little rivalry. There is something between these two teams and this honestly has the feeling of a dogfight to me. We saw the first Michigan State game vs a solid defense and that was a fight as well. Now, you might not think much of the Rutgers defense after last week but I think they are solid. We shall see. I'd lean taking the points as of now...

Another kinda rivalry game with Maryland heading into the Shoe. As I said earlier, is this the swoon? We shall see. Little Tua on the road is always cause for concern. Methinks a certain capper and others will be heavy on team totals in this game. Just saying...

We got ourselves an old fashioned Bert Bowl down in Champagne! This is the time for Wisky to get right. Illinois struggled with Charlotte last week and isn't really improving in my book. Obviously we need to look at the injuries on the Badgers side with Mertz and Ferguson. That backup has quite the ratio of career passes to interceptions.

The best game of the conference card is in Iowa City. This is a good old fashioned rock em sock em game at Kinnick. This is the kind of football former college handicapper Vegas Kyle loves. Old fashioned football. I only wish this game was played at night. This Iowa defense is pretty dirty and they will be able to make Penn St a one-dimensional team and really focus on Clifford. I won't lie, I cannot in fact (Tyree reference)...I like Iowa here quite a bit.

Okay, last but not least, Michigan heads to Nebraska.

Few things here...

1. Interesting line and movement
2. Night game in Lincoln no picnic
3. Michigan has never won here
4. The last visit was 8-9 years ago. Denard was hurt early and we brought in just a terrible quarterback. This was never a game.
5. AM in the three Husker losses has been sacked 17 TIMES!
6. Michigan has a bye week next
7. Frost and JH have no love lost

Michigan has 5 games circled on their schedule. They are 2-0 so far. This isn't one of them but shapes up to be one of the toughest games they will face due to situation and timing. This a big game for Frost as well, perhaps a win here propels the rest of the season and gets him some more time. A loss? Things could spiral.

This is a great matchup this week and I think it will be a tight game. I expect to see Michigan's first deficit as well. How will they respond? We shall see...
 
Nebraska made big OL changes last week and Frost has started coaching them some. LT moved to RT. True frosh who went to high school 5 miles from me started at LT. New starter at LG, who started games as a true frosh at Colo St a couple years ago. Totally different animal this week for that group, but that was about as well as you can play last week. Martinez playing pretty well. Has looked good in the option game and has hit several deep throws. Still tends to hold the ball too long, which accounts for at least some of the sack issues.

Biggest thing here though is that I will be in attendance and influencing the game.
 
Fwiw…

- Penn State is 17-13 in 30 all-time head-to-head matchups against Iowa.
- Iowa defeated Penn State, 41-21, in their last meeting on Nov. 21, 2020.
- Penn State is 8-1 against the spread (ATS) in its last nine games.
- Iowa is 4-2 ATS in its last six home games against Penn State.
- The total has hit the under in 10 of Penn State's last 11 road games against Iowa.
- The total has hit the under in each of Iowa's last five home games.
 
Fwiw…

- Penn State is 17-13 in 30 all-time head-to-head matchups against Iowa.
- Iowa defeated Penn State, 41-21, in their last meeting on Nov. 21, 2020.
- Penn State is 8-1 against the spread (ATS) in its last nine games.
- Iowa is 4-2 ATS in its last six home games against Penn State.
- The total has hit the under in 10 of Penn State's last 11 road games against Iowa.
- The total has hit the under in each of Iowa's last five home games.
I'd probably still hit under 32 if it was set that low
 
Purdue/Minny recap

Really just gross, (again) but this time it cost Purdue not converting in the red zone. Typically when you double up in yards and triple up in first downs you can get it done but not Purdue. Game really was won with field position, some ill time sacks by Purdue's statue of a QB, and some dropped balls/mis thrown balls i think partly due to the monsoon. It is what it is. Purdue has very little ability to run the ball and everything tightens up down in the red zone.

Purdue's D was fine and continues to impress (vs my absurdly low expectations). Brohm has to figure out how to put more points on the board when running 80+ plays and putting up 500 yards of offense regardless of weather. Minnesota capitalized on every opportunity they had for 20 points. No good reason other than some missed opportunities that Purdue couldn't put a couple scores up in the 2nd half and win this by 7+...credit Fleck for some bend but don't break D and forcing Purdue to mount 10+ play drives to punch it in though.

Also, chris autman bell is a freak. Nearly all of Minny's production were a few big plays through him.

A few guys were on snap counts (Bell, Doerue on O), Deen at DT but the one positive is Purdue came out of this as healthy as one could hope and "should" roll into Iowa City (after the bye week) as healthy as they've been all year with their top DB (Trice), top TE (Durham), and top RB (Horvath) all returning along with the guys above that should now be at full strength.

Most importantly it's nearly hoops season.
 
Here we are, getting into the meat of the conference schedule now...

October is here and we have a lot of great matchups these next four weeks...


Last week


I'd say the game in East Lansing went as expected. There were a lot of points and Western passed all day as they do and many expected. On the other side, Michigan State scored most times they wanted to and were equally dangerous on the ground as through the air. Would I be concerned as a Spartan fan about the pass defense? Sure, a bit. King also got after them quite a bit through the air. With that being said, this conference doesn't have a lot of strong passing teams so they should only be challenged that way in 2-3 games down the stretch.

Impressive effort by Ohio State vs Rutgers. Maybe sitting for a week and watching helped Stroud? Dunno. Rutgers is not a bad team but they simply got demoralized here. As far as Ohio goes, I'd expect them to keep improving and be in full gear as we get past Halloween.

Penn St took care of Indiana easily. This Hoosiers team is starting to regress and really are a hard team to watch at this point. My look in this game was to check in on the Penn St running game. It was seemingly okay, but take away the 44 yard run plus Clifford's yards and it is still a bit substandard. The Hoosier defense is no pushover though.

All I know of the Purdue and Minnesota battle is some pics my buddy showed me that went to the game. Otherwise, the box score winning team lost the game. I am guessing these two play 10 times and Purdue wins 7 of them. I'll let the resident experts chime in though.

Iowa absolutely smashed Maryland. Is this the start of the annual swoon? We shall see...

Nebraska had no problems with one of the worst P5 teams in the country. Despite the opponent, that is an impressive performance after that heartbreaker the week before + the Oklahoma game the week before.

To the local game we go.... Wisconsin is not a good team this year, on one side of the ball. The offense is awful. Mertz is somewhat shell shocked at this point and they do not have that work horse running back that so often leads this team. On the other side, that is a very good defense. I'd keep capping that defense to lose interest in 2H's of losses a bit though. We've seen this before. Michigan had a very good gameplan. They knew that running the ball would be had but they were honest enough with it. Cade managed the game well, per usual, and gained confidence as the game went in the passing game. The flea flicker was a great call. I loved the idea of going on 4th early on(although the 2nd one was a horrible play call). They wanted to play from the lead and did just that. Some might be curious about JJ getting snaps early in the second half. That is simply about bringing the RPO element to the offense. Kid is gonna be a star. Good win, in a place we haven't won since I was 21. Wild.



This week


The Situation Trophy is up for grabs in Jersey in what is a weird little rivalry. There is something between these two teams and this honestly has the feeling of a dogfight to me. We saw the first Michigan State game vs a solid defense and that was a fight as well. Now, you might not think much of the Rutgers defense after last week but I think they are solid. We shall see. I'd lean taking the points as of now...

Another kinda rivalry game with Maryland heading into the Shoe. As I said earlier, is this the swoon? We shall see. Little Tua on the road is always cause for concern. Methinks a certain capper and others will be heavy on team totals in this game. Just saying...

We got ourselves an old fashioned Bert Bowl down in Champagne! This is the time for Wisky to get right. Illinois struggled with Charlotte last week and isn't really improving in my book. Obviously we need to look at the injuries on the Badgers side with Mertz and Ferguson. That backup has quite the ratio of career passes to interceptions.

The best game of the conference card is in Iowa City. This is a good old fashioned rock em sock em game at Kinnick. This is the kind of football former college handicapper Vegas Kyle loves. Old fashioned football. I only wish this game was played at night. This Iowa defense is pretty dirty and they will be able to make Penn St a one-dimensional team and really focus on Clifford. I won't lie, I cannot in fact (Tyree reference)...I like Iowa here quite a bit.

Okay, last but not least, Michigan heads to Nebraska.

Few things here...

1. Interesting line and movement
2. Night game in Lincoln no picnic
3. Michigan has never won here
4. The last visit was 8-9 years ago. Denard was hurt early and we brought in just a terrible quarterback. This was never a game.
5. AM in the three Husker losses has been sacked 17 TIMES!
6. Michigan has a bye week next
7. Frost and JH have no love lost

Michigan has 5 games circled on their schedule. They are 2-0 so far. This isn't one of them but shapes up to be one of the toughest games they will face due to situation and timing. This a big game for Frost as well, perhaps a win here propels the rest of the season and gets him some more time. A loss? Things could spiral.

This is a great matchup this week and I think it will be a tight game. I expect to see Michigan's first deficit as well. How will they respond? We shall see...
Yeah msu Rutgers feels like a tight one to me too...like the points here
 
Michigan State revenge angle off embarrassing loss to open Mel Tucker era last year. I think this will motivate MSU, they will be up for the game.

Rutgers bounce back angle off embarrassing home loss to Ohio State. Rutgers comes across to me as a program built on pride with Schiano there now and that was a bad defeat for them, largest defeat for them before last week was 22pt vs OSU last season.

Ohio State O can be a tough matchup for anyone. MSU-Rutgers definitely figures to be a tight game, a fight. Either team can win for sure. Taking points is tempting.
 
Michigan State revenge angle off embarrassing loss to open Mel Tucker era last year. I think this will motivate MSU, they will be up for the game.

Rutgers bounce back angle off embarrassing home loss to Ohio State. Rutgers comes across to me as a program built on pride with Schiano there now and that was a bad defeat for them, largest defeat for them before last week was 22pt vs OSU last season.

Ohio State O can be a tough matchup for anyone. MSU-Rutgers definitely figures to be a tight game, a fight. Either team can win for sure. Taking points is tempting.
I went Rutgers TT over 23. MSU defense can be had, partly because they simply aren't great (esp vs pass) and partly due to the big play potential of their offense often putting their defense right back on the field. Rutgers offense isn't great of course, but they've been good at avoiding big negatives (TOs, sacks, penalties) and arguably better than expected (not a high standard). Off two painful weeks (vs OSU and UM) and back at home in a big game, I agree with you that Rutgers shows some pride and bounces back, and I think TT over is the best way for me to play it given how explosive MSU offense has been. Probably will be on ML too.
 
Nebraska made big OL changes last week and Frost has started coaching them some. LT moved to RT. True frosh who went to high school 5 miles from me started at LT. New starter at LG, who started games as a true frosh at Colo St a couple years ago. Totally different animal this week for that group, but that was about as well as you can play last week. Martinez playing pretty well. Has looked good in the option game and has hit several deep throws. Still tends to hold the ball too long, which accounts for at least some of the sack issues.

Biggest thing here though is that I will be in attendance and influencing the game.

This, right?



 
#1 vs dead last in S&P rankings I believe.

Seems like our kicker got his shit figured out the last two weeks and having Oliver Martin back to field punts will help a ton too. You never know what our punters are going to do and our kick return should just take the touch back every single time.
 
He's done a lot right. Just hasn't won games. The AD change is helping big time from what I can tell. I'd want to see a few more games before I make that call. They owe him a lot of money so he's going to get the benefit of the doubt.
Not sure why you don't just embrace being a basketball school and put most of your resources into the program!
 
Not sure why you don't just embrace being a basketball school and put most of your resources into the program!

I think we're going to be pretty good there. Tournament is a possibility this year.
 
It is. Creighton owns their soul.
Crazy looked at two schedules last night, ISU to see if they played out West and ASU to see if there was a game worth going to Tempe for

Both play Creighton. Jays are everywhere
 
SIAP....Via Fallica, wow: Iowa is 14-1 in its last 15 games as a favorite of four points or fewer. The lone loss came last year at Purdue as a 3.5-point favorite.

Not sure what the ATS is there but still.
 
SIAP....Via Fallica, wow: Iowa is 14-1 in its last 15 games as a favorite of four points or fewer. The lone loss came last year at Purdue as a 3.5-point favorite.

Not sure what the ATS is there but still.
Should be 3.5/4

Crazy love for PSU and should be very low scoring so I get it, catching points

But I wouldn't bet PSU with enemy money in this spot...Fox ruined this game by making it an afternoon game, no reason it's not after dark
 
Is anyone questioning this crazy ass line movement in UM/NEB...no way Corn is getting the amount of $$$ bet to move the line down off of ONE good game. Vegas taking an opinion on this no? (Of course, I'm hammering Blue all the way fucking down.)
 
It's more than one good game. What if the refs hadn't taken 3 touchdowns off the board vs Buffalo? 49-3 instead of 28-3. What if our all conference kicker hadn't gotten the yips? Maybe a road win vs Oklahoma? What if our punter hadn't fucked up at the end of the sparty game? A dominant 2h road win vs an undefeated sparty team. I expect a good game tomorrow night and if Nebraska can hang around, a ferocious crowd hungry for a big win.
 
The Joe blows I talked to tonight can't believe the line is so low

Yup, Nebraska ML time :(
 
The Joe blows I talked to tonight can't believe the line is so low

Yup, Nebraska ML time :(

I've watched a couple videos from wager talk or whomever. 3 people said they were on nebraska, 1 was on under. Still think our OL has a tough match-up. We'll see if they can run it.
 
I've watched a couple videos from wager talk or whomever. 3 people said they were on nebraska, 1 was on under. Still think our OL has a tough match-up. We'll see if they can run it.
That's the cap here imo.

Then turnovers.

Cade has never thrown a pick at UM.

Runners have protected the ball.

This gonna be a helluva game imo.
 
i heard 20-30 mph winds in iowa? undr 41 all day,, long as clifford can avoid turnovers which i think he will this should be a total field position grind it out game.. not exactly breaking news but i think the right play none the less.. hard not to play iowa cause just dunno if psu can beat them at this type of game?
 
As I said, WR Wilson is out (until MSU game).

Talk is there may be a few other players banged up and not sure if they go. So far, no idea who those are... shall see...

As far as motivation... this isn't one of their circled games but they are fired up 'apparently' due to some talk from the other side. Ya never know.

Such a huge game for the NU program.

As I said, gonna be a heck of a game imo.
 
Need JJ in to go far this year for Michigan..he's the difference between a possible 11 win season and an 8-9 win one.
 
Hey mr Reno. What up.

SGU ML here. Haven’t played many of their games ty but this one is saucy IMO.

Briefly:

Obviously big time HFA here. Though the game not at night, it will end at night. It will be insane environment.

Big time Special teams advantage for SGU. Game like this, that huge

PSU offensive line grades out near bottom of Big Ten. (PFF) RT is trash. That’s a problem on the road and no running game. Iowa back 7 is elite. Sit in zone with eyes on QB. Give DC parker extra day to prepare. Ballhawk defense. Have fun

How will Iowa score? Not sure but don’t think they need more then 17. Turnover margin and field position as a result, will determine outcome. Iowa is elite at punter, kickoff, punt and kick return. That will play big factor in knife fight type game.

Lean under. I’m 6u on ML.
 
Concur tee and prolly will be on PSU tt under, just hate playing those but as I mentioned somewhere else, I'd bet under 32 if they set the line that low
 
Hey mr Reno. What up.

SGU ML here. Haven’t played many of their games ty but this one is saucy IMO.

Briefly:

Obviously big time HFA here. Though the game not at night, it will end at night. It will be insane environment.

Big time Special teams advantage for SGU. Game like this, that huge

PSU offensive line grades out near bottom of Big Ten. (PFF) RT is trash. That’s a problem on the road and no running game. Iowa back 7 is elite. Sit in zone with eyes on QB. Give DC parker extra day to prepare. Ballhawk defense. Have fun

How will Iowa score? Not sure but don’t think they need more then 17. Turnover margin and field position as a result, will determine outcome. Iowa is elite at punter, kickoff, punt and kick return. That will play big factor in knife fight type game.

Lean under. I’m 6u on ML.
Yup Yup and YUP
 
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