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BIG Week 2 discussion

HUNT

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Indiana vs. Indiana State
Maybe Indiana can score more than 10 in this one.

Illinois vs Kansas
Not really sure what to expect here. Illinois had a lucky bomb on 4th down last night to win that game over the rockets. Didn't get to see any of KU

Youngstown St. vs Ohio State
Should be a bloodbath by half

Delaware vs Penn State
Another practice game this week on the schedule

Nebraska vs Colorado
I'm sure this will be the most discussed game of the week everywhere.

Purdue vs Virginia Tech
Know nothing about either.

UNLV vs Michigan
Michigan will use this week to work out their issues from last week..lack of run game, oline run blocking, pass rush.

Iowa State vs Iowa
Amazing to me that Matt Campbell is relatively unscathed from the gambling at that school and Pat Fitzgerald gets fired. Different incidents but still a major lack of control over culture. JMO. As for the game, Iowa is Iowa, ISU is ISU still.

Richmond vs Michigan State
MSU will work on getting the new QB some more reps, he looked better in second half last week.

UTEP vs Northwestern
NW is super bad, UTEP can win.

Wisconsin vs. Washington State
I like the new look badgers, they have a chance to be really good.

Charlotte vs. Maryland
Will be tighter than people think

Eastern Michigan vs. Minnesota

EMU can score, Minny D too good though

Temple vs. Rutgers
Damn, are there anymore games this week? that's a lot. Rutgers has a nice well coached squad.
 
I mean, I was thinking about how I'm going to fade Colorado pretty much from the jump Saturday. Will there be value here? I think Nebraska may be cursed
 
I mean, I was thinking about how I'm going to fade Colorado pretty much from the jump Saturday. Will there be value here? I think Nebraska may be cursed

Need to see it live first. Tough game, but that place will be a zoo. I kind of don't want to get in Colorado's way right now, better games on the board imo.
 
I mean, I was thinking about how I'm going to fade Colorado pretty much from the jump Saturday. Will there be value here? I think Nebraska may be cursed

There will be spot to fade Colorado. Just not sure if this is the one.

Talk about 2 teams in disparate emotional states. One of the more interesting matchups in the psychological realm of things that i can remember.
 
And don't get me started on on the fucking AG in Iowa that wants to make a name for himself. Could be any state in the nation yet the red corn field has spoken. Fucking losers.
 
I'd sure like Corn better this week if they didn't have Simms at qb. Still a fascinating matchup. I'd say if Nebraska could keep it close, they could wear CU down in the 2nd half. But it appears Neb is still allergic to finishing games.
 
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I'd sure like Corn better this week if they didn't have Simms at qb. Still a fascinating matchup. I'd say if Nebraska could keep it close, they could wear CU down in the 2nd half. But it appears Neb is still allergic to finishing games.
Simms is what you do when you need to lose. Thank you for that opinion, he isn't good.

That said I don't think he needs to be good this weekend.
 
Agree that UM *should* cover this but the stupid clock could get in the way again.

Any chance this comes back down to 35?

Maybe later in the week it could. Will be interesting to see how the UM alumni bet and the state of Nevada for UNLV. Fascinating to me.
 
Full Reno report later tonight...

I'm in no hurry to bet an over in a Mich game with the clock situation. With that being said, I'll be open minded.

The big point I want to make here -- Mich passed like 30 times through 3 quarters and the possessions were still pretty limited.
 
Full Reno report later tonight...

I'm in no hurry to bet an over in a Mich game with the clock situation. With that being said, I'll be open minded.

The big point I want to make here -- Mich passed like 30 times through 3 quarters and the possessions were still pretty limited.

Agreed the possessions were limited, but some of that is because JJ hit 26/30, and most were not long gains...hence, the clock was going due to completions being so high.

Michigan is the kind of team, that needs so much to go right to get a certain number because of their style of play. They need sacks, turnovers, some long runs, long pass plays..they had none of that this past weekend outside of a long Corum run. I can't remember if they created a turnover or not tbh, one got overturned on an INT.

They were also stuffed at the ECU goal line 4x in a row rushing all 4x up the middle with Don.
 
Man, I miss Nebraska football - it's likely never coming back but I absolutely loved they way the new "flashy toy" would be demolished by physically superior team, who knew what they were and did it close to perfect. This feels like a game where the Huskers go jumbo sets and pound the ball - take the ball out of Sims hands other than running, which he can do. They have nowhere near the talent they had back then but they ran the ball effectively against the Gophers - nothing like a couple 15-play drives to keep the future co-Heisman winners off the field, well at least one of them. Now for that to work the Huskers have to play a clean game - no ridiculous penalties. That is where I have my doubts - this team has learned how to lose, they seemingly expect to lose.

But the Colorado hype is insane right now, and Deion did his team no favors by running his mouth after one game. And are we sure TCU was worthy of giving anyone 21 points? They might suck. That TCU defense hasn't stopped anyone since they played Texas in Austin, who was boldly attempting to win the game with a two-play game plan.

Out of general principle, I have to take the Huskers though I agree this might not be the team to back against the obvious fade of Colorado in the coming weeks. The Huskers did nothing to deserve a downgrade in power rating - on the road as 7 point dogs, the Gophers needed a pick in the end zone, a +3 turnover margin and a ridiculous catch on a 4th down to win the game. If the Huskers stayed the same the books moved Colorado at least 12 points - that is too big of an adjustment.

I realize I might be showing up to a gun fight with a water pistol.
 
Man, I miss Nebraska football - it's likely never coming back but I absolutely loved they way the new "flashy toy" would be demolished by physically superior team, who knew what they were and did it close to perfect. This feels like a game where the Huskers go jumbo sets and pound the ball - take the ball out of Sims hands other than running, which he can do. They have nowhere near the talent they had back then but they ran the ball effectively against the Gophers - nothing like a couple 15-play drives to keep the future co-Heisman winners off the field, well at least one of them. Now for that to work the Huskers have to play a clean game - no ridiculous penalties. That is where I have my doubts - this team has learned how to lose, they seemingly expect to lose.

But the Colorado hype is insane right now, and Deion did his team no favors by running his mouth after one game. And are we sure TCU was worthy of giving anyone 21 points? They might suck. That TCU defense hasn't stopped anyone since they played Texas in Austin, who was boldly attempting to win the game with a two-play game plan.

Out of general principle, I have to take the Huskers though I agree this might not be the team to back against the obvious fade of Colorado in the coming weeks. The Huskers did nothing to deserve a downgrade in power rating - on the road as 7 point dogs, the Gophers needed a pick in the end zone, a +3 turnover margin and a ridiculous catch on a 4th down to win the game. If the Huskers stayed the same the books moved Colorado at least 12 points - that is too big of an adjustment.

I realize I might be showing up to a gun fight with a water pistol.
Appreciate this post
 
Agreed the possessions were limited, but some of that is because JJ hit 26/30, and most were not long gains...hence, the clock was going due to completions being so high.

Michigan is the kind of team, that needs so much to go right to get a certain number because of their style of play. They need sacks, turnovers, some long runs, long pass plays..they had none of that this past weekend outside of a long Corum run. I can't remember if they created a turnover or not tbh, one got overturned on an INT.

They were also stuffed at the ECU goal line 4x in a row rushing all 4x up the middle with Don.

This isn't anything @B.A.R. doesn't already know, I agree with him, just stating the type of team Michigan is with regards to overs. It's a gun to head bet 70% of time.
 
Would expect Blumfield to put up points too, esp if UM secondary is still banged up. Nothing major but 45-14 cashes. Feels in neighborhood

I can see that. It's just tough because you need to rely on Michigan do do everything correctly. They wait until the playclock goes to 15 or under every snap. Need efficient possessions. Pre clock rules I would be all for it. I also think not having Harbaugh hurts.

I am kind of neutral, can see it either way.....I do think they'll score more than last week, just not sure it's over 40+. Tuttle will be the backup, just an FYI.
 
I can see that. It's just tough because you need to rely on Michigan do do everything correctly. They wait until the playclock goes to 15 or under every snap. Need efficient possessions. Pre clock rules I would be all for it. I also think not having Harbaugh hurts.

I am kind of neutral, can see it either way.....I do think they'll score more than last week, just not sure it's over 40+. Tuttle will be the backup, just an FYI.
I haven't seen the Tuttle backup news.

Interesting.

I'd love to see either get a series in 2Q of a blowout but those days are over with the limited possessions.
 
Man, I miss Nebraska football - it's likely never coming back but I absolutely loved they way the new "flashy toy" would be demolished by physically superior team, who knew what they were and did it close to perfect. This feels like a game where the Huskers go jumbo sets and pound the ball - take the ball out of Sims hands other than running, which he can do. They have nowhere near the talent they had back then but they ran the ball effectively against the Gophers - nothing like a couple 15-play drives to keep the future co-Heisman winners off the field, well at least one of them. Now for that to work the Huskers have to play a clean game - no ridiculous penalties. That is where I have my doubts - this team has learned how to lose, they seemingly expect to lose.

But the Colorado hype is insane right now, and Deion did his team no favors by running his mouth after one game. And are we sure TCU was worthy of giving anyone 21 points? They might suck. That TCU defense hasn't stopped anyone since they played Texas in Austin, who was boldly attempting to win the game with a two-play game plan.

Out of general principle, I have to take the Huskers though I agree this might not be the team to back against the obvious fade of Colorado in the coming weeks. The Huskers did nothing to deserve a downgrade in power rating - on the road as 7 point dogs, the Gophers needed a pick in the end zone, a +3 turnover margin and a ridiculous catch on a 4th down to win the game. If the Huskers stayed the same the books moved Colorado at least 12 points - that is too big of an adjustment.

I realize I might be showing up to a gun fight with a water pistol.
Agree with a lot of this. Then that little voice inside me can hear him at the presser saying now he picked off a guy that was a NFL HC….
 
Man, I miss Nebraska football - it's likely never coming back but I absolutely loved they way the new "flashy toy" would be demolished by physically superior team, who knew what they were and did it close to perfect. This feels like a game where the Huskers go jumbo sets and pound the ball - take the ball out of Sims hands other than running, which he can do. They have nowhere near the talent they had back then but they ran the ball effectively against the Gophers - nothing like a couple 15-play drives to keep the future co-Heisman winners off the field, well at least one of them. Now for that to work the Huskers have to play a clean game - no ridiculous penalties. That is where I have my doubts - this team has learned how to lose, they seemingly expect to lose.

But the Colorado hype is insane right now, and Deion did his team no favors by running his mouth after one game. And are we sure TCU was worthy of giving anyone 21 points? They might suck. That TCU defense hasn't stopped anyone since they played Texas in Austin, who was boldly attempting to win the game with a two-play game plan.

Out of general principle, I have to take the Huskers though I agree this might not be the team to back against the obvious fade of Colorado in the coming weeks. The Huskers did nothing to deserve a downgrade in power rating - on the road as 7 point dogs, the Gophers needed a pick in the end zone, a +3 turnover margin and a ridiculous catch on a 4th down to win the game. If the Huskers stayed the same the books moved Colorado at least 12 points - that is too big of an adjustment.

I realize I might be showing up to a gun fight with a water pistol.
Just heard on a podcast that Colorado D had zero (0) TFL on 80 plays vs TCU. Doesn't sound like a recipe for success vs the sort of Husker attack you're describing, sure hope we see it.
 
30th post in the thread and finally fully getting my feet wet...

Nothing too sexy about Michigan's opener other than JJ looked like the best QB in the B16. This is the natural progression for this kid (more the old school way of a QB growing up, and a reminder guys like Tua and Trevor are not the norm). I think a critical comment during the broadcast was how much that shoulder injury was still aa factor till late into the 2022 season.

ECU, well coached and they decided that the run was going to be their focus... The OL was great in pass protection, and average in run blocking...

Now, some quick hitters from the game...

-Corum looked a bit tentative at times. I understand how hard that first real game action is, so we'll leave this as a minor worry.
-Wilson looked great in that #1 jersey. With great health, he is such a weapon and he looked like he has taken that next step
-They will be trying different OL combos these first few games. As long as they are gelling by mid-October, they'll be fine. They do have 10 starters, basically.
-Loveland is dirty.
-Place kicking is an absolute worry
-Skeleton coaching staff did well enough. The players definitely felt like something was missing.
-We should see full secondary in the next few weeks. The backups played pretty well. This could be a blessing.
-I cannot really get a full feel for the DL until they play a team that isn't trying to quick pass.

Lets talk the clock rules and Michigan...

Michigan passed the ball THIRTY times through 3 quarters of football. That is WILD, yet they only had 6 full drives during those 3 quarters. I am not counting the 48 second Fg drive at the end of the half (although, that was much better 2 min drill than they usually do)

Those drives included the 4 TD's, the fumble at goal-line and the opening 3 and out deep in their own zone. The drives in the 1H were pretty efficient, averaging around 4 mins per. The two drives in the 3Q were more workmanlike, UM drives that we are used too.

I think, barring turnovers, we will see around 2 drives a quarter for Michigan for now. I want to get into that mindset of 5 tops in a half as far as TT's and totals are concerned. You have to very efficient in that time to get the requisite points.

We'll keep tracking and see when all said and done.

Overall, in the ECU game, I would say 11-14 total points were left off the board (so 44-47 total).



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Elsewhere in the B16...

I'll usually go over the boxes Saturday night and detail a bit more on my recap but this is a hectic week. Next week I will be more thorough.

Here is what I bet on in the league last week...

Nebraska +7.5
WVU TT u14.5
Ohio State u55.5 live (near end of 1Q)
Michigan 2h tt o17.5


I am very happy with all of those bets, except the UM 2h play.

Nebraska was a late addition to the card (basically went from 0 plays Thursday to 3 right before kick after a good discussion session with a few locally). That bet was never in doubt, albeit another heartbreaker for the Husker faithful.

I knew once the margin was 24 in Happy Valley that they would go for two. The part that ticks me off is PSU let up on that drive at 31-7 and let WVU go down pretty easily. Consequently, they then decided to come back for the cover. That's simply more work than was needed, hehe.

Okay, we know OSU and their level of offensive success the last decade. That live number was PURELY of a reputation. I honestly thought it was a mistake. Anyways, with their '2 QB's + clock rules and a pedestrian IU offense, that was easy money.

Michigan easily should have had 3 scores in the 2h....BUT...as I wrote on my post, I knew they needed perfection. Simply put, if you are going to bet a 3 score TT, you better have 5-6 possessions coming your way in a half. I like other parts of the cap, but otherwise a forced play...


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Couple of quick hitter conference thoughts...

-I've been on the PSU/Allar train all off-season. So far, so good.
-Ohio State will be a factor by conference season. But, the ND game is even more interesting now.
-Wisconsin running game is dirty, as expected
-Michigan State is very pedestrian
-Iowa is still Iowa

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***Handicapping note -- Washington had zero issue with 'balance' vs Boise. Michigan States strength is the front 7. I'd expect the Huskies gameplan is similar in that matchup

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Week #2

I'll be in attendance in Ann Arbor this Saturday. Pretty excited to get down there and enjoy the atmosphere.

Two Friday night games, and a big one in the @Teapot9 household! Nice comeback by the Illini last week. They aren't pretty but I think they exert ball control in this one and win a close one...

Purdue and VT is a very interesting game. I will defer to @PaintCrew here but this is a great watch for future handicapping...

Iowa and Iowa State is always fun. I like to hope for a quick few scores and immediately go into live under mode...

A few of these games are not worth mentioning...

Wazzou hosting Wisconsin is interesting. The Badgers owe them one here. I am capping this a bit harder looking for UW angles...

Charlotte and the Terps played last year, 56-21 was the final. I do not remember my bets, but I made a nice amount of money in that shootout. Keep and eye out on Charlotte this year and next. Biff is a pretty legendary HS coach who's had a very important role at Michigan the past few years. He brought several transfers with him as well. Guys love playing for him. I'd expect them to be a sneaky ATS team at some point...

We all know how EMU is as a dog! They are definitely on my radar this week vs a pedestrian Minnesota offense...

Rutgers laying a solid tariff vs the Owls, but I think this is the type of game they can control nicely, like last week. On the radar...

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Lastly, we can start handicapping UM/UNLV more. I know A LOT OF you like the over.

Admittedly, I took an under position here "to start".

Convince me how Michigan scores 6 tuddies and a FG for the over to have a chance, and we'll go from there...

Again, that clock is in effect. For as much as Jim says he wants 50/50 play ratio, I feel like they will want to pound the rock a bit harder this weekend....
 
I haven't seen the Tuttle backup news.

Interesting.

I'd love to see either get a series in 2Q of a blowout but those days are over with the limited possessions.

I saw it in some Sayfie interview with Jim, I think. He was watching the game at Sherrone Moore's house and Sherrone's wife made them sandwiches, and colonel Jim Minnick texted him some military quote. Classic Harbaugh.
 
I didn't discuss NU/COL at all, since that seems to be dominating the general discussion thread...

Man, old clock rules this would be a play for sure...

NU TT
 
I saw it in some Sayfie interview with Jim, I think. He was watching the game at Sherrone Moore's house and Sherrone's wife made them sandwiches, and colonel Jim Minnick texted him some military quote. Classic Harbaugh.
LMFAO

That is right. Sherrone knew how to load up Peacock otherwise JH would have missed the game.

I did see a quote about the "Colonel" but totally breezed by...
 
Lets talk the clock rules and Michigan...

Michigan passed the ball THIRTY times through 3 quarters of football. That is WILD, yet they only had 6 full drives during those 3 quarters. I am not counting the 48 second Fg drive at the end of the half (although, that was much better 2 min drill than they usually do)

Those drives included the 4 TD's, the fumble at goal-line and the opening 3 and out deep in their own zone. The drives in the 1H were pretty efficient, averaging around 4 mins per. The two drives in the 3Q were more workmanlike, UM drives that we are used too.

I think, barring turnovers, we will see around 2 drives a quarter for Michigan for now. I want to get into that mindset of 5 tops in a half as far as TT's and totals are concerned. You have to very efficient in that time to get the requisite points.

THIS 100000% regarding betting on Michigan.
 
Against Bryant UNLV was at a pace of 18.5 secs per play. Bryant dominated TOP with 39 minutes. Rebels had 7 scores with less than 3 min drives, three of which were less than 40 secs. If they run that 18.5 uptempo at The Big House wolv's are getting more chances to score.
ECU had 29 secs per play, UM at 32.4. And lack of incompletions along with 25 wolv first downs drains clock.

Need a couple of breakout runs to get that Over, IMO.
 
Can't wait for Sat, hopefully the Clones aren't looking ahead to the BobCATS
 
Nothing to do with betting this week but was just thinking how tough the B10 is going to be next year and going forward. I broke into 3 levels

Top: Michigan, OSU, PSU, USC, Oregon, Washington, Wisconsin
2nd: Iowa, UCLA, Illinois, Nebraska
Low: rest

Even a couple years ago I would have had it much different (much weaker) but the coaching hires are making this a gauntlet for sure going forward. I'm actually coming around to it being a lot of fun more and more. Kind of feel sorry for the rest - IMO they are going to get demolished.
 
2 things:
1. I think Ohio State unders will be a strong look for the time being (this week vs YSU obviously not really in play). Day talked last week about how they were going to play "old school" and really emphasize being physical in the run game. They then only put up 143 on 31 carries vs an IU team that clearly was focused on taking away Harrison and Egbuka. New QBs (neither of whom apparently could win the job outright) + the two young OTs + Day's comments have me thinking that the switch to a smash mouth running mentality is more out of necessity than strategy. Maybe McCord (or Brown) grows into the role (Stroud hardly was elite from the outset) and come October we see a different OSU offense but I'll have to see it first. Meanwhile, Jim Knowles appears to have things relatively in order on the other side of the ball. Offensive without the confidence to open it up yet + defense being reliable (at least until Knowles is rolling the dice against an offense with real firepower) + new clock rules has me thinking the market will not be pricing OSU totals properly for a few weeks.
2. Northwestern is a home dog to UTEP this week. I can't even begin to wrap my head around the PR adjustments that had to go into making that happen. Normally, you figure the worst B10 is roughly equivalent to the best team in CUSA (and UTEP isn't the best team in CUSA). I like to see a graphic of NU's since 2020, it has to look like AIG's stock price in 2008 (though yes stretched over a longer period of time).
 
2 things:
1. I think Ohio State unders will be a strong look for the time being (this week vs YSU obviously not really in play). Day talked last week about how they were going to play "old school" and really emphasize being physical in the run game. They then only put up 143 on 31 carries vs an IU team that clearly was focused on taking away Harrison and Egbuka. New QBs (neither of whom apparently could win the job outright) + the two young OTs + Day's comments have me thinking that the switch to a smash mouth running mentality is more out of necessity than strategy. Maybe McCord (or Brown) grows into the role (Stroud hardly was elite from the outset) and come October we see a different OSU offense but I'll have to see it first. Meanwhile, Jim Knowles appears to have things relatively in order on the other side of the ball. Offensive without the confidence to open it up yet + defense being reliable (at least until Knowles is rolling the dice against an offense with real firepower) + new clock rules has me thinking the market will not be pricing OSU totals properly for a few weeks.
2. Northwestern is a home dog to UTEP this week. I can't even begin to wrap my head around the PR adjustments that had to go into making that happen. Normally, you figure the worst B10 is roughly equivalent to the best team in CUSA (and UTEP isn't the best team in CUSA). I like to see a graphic of NU's since 2020, it has to look like AIG's stock price in 2008 (though yes stretched over a longer period of time).
I agree on Ohio State. Buckeyes like to pound instate teams (YSU) but this team sure looks like it will lean on the defense Knowles has created.
 
2 things:
1. I think Ohio State unders will be a strong look for the time being (this week vs YSU obviously not really in play). Day talked last week about how they were going to play "old school" and really emphasize being physical in the run game. They then only put up 143 on 31 carries vs an IU team that clearly was focused on taking away Harrison and Egbuka. New QBs (neither of whom apparently could win the job outright) + the two young OTs + Day's comments have me thinking that the switch to a smash mouth running mentality is more out of necessity than strategy. Maybe McCord (or Brown) grows into the role (Stroud hardly was elite from the outset) and come October we see a different OSU offense but I'll have to see it first. Meanwhile, Jim Knowles appears to have things relatively in order on the other side of the ball. Offensive without the confidence to open it up yet + defense being reliable (at least until Knowles is rolling the dice against an offense with real firepower) + new clock rules has me thinking the market will not be pricing OSU totals properly for a few weeks.
2. Northwestern is a home dog to UTEP this week. I can't even begin to wrap my head around the PR adjustments that had to go into making that happen. Normally, you figure the worst B10 is roughly equivalent to the best team in CUSA (and UTEP isn't the best team in CUSA). I like to see a graphic of NU's since 2020, it has to look like AIG's stock price in 2008 (though yes stretched over a longer period of time).
Yup on #1.

That was another reason I hit that under live with a lot of confidence.
 
Agreed the possessions were limited, but some of that is because JJ hit 26/30, and most were not long gains...hence, the clock was going due to completions being so high.

Michigan is the kind of team, that needs so much to go right to get a certain number because of their style of play. They need sacks, turnovers, some long runs, long pass plays..they had none of that this past weekend outside of a long Corum run. I can't remember if they created a turnover or not tbh, one got overturned on an INT.

They were also stuffed at the ECU goal line 4x in a row rushing all 4x up the middle with Don.

Yeah he wasn’t pushing anything. Might have well been 20 3 yard runs and 6/10 passing.
 
Nothing to do with betting this week but was just thinking how tough the B10 is going to be next year and going forward. I broke into 3 levels

Top: Michigan, OSU, PSU, USC, Oregon, Washington, Wisconsin
2nd: Iowa, UCLA, Illinois, Nebraska
Low: rest

Even a couple years ago I would have had it much different (much weaker) but the coaching hires are making this a gauntlet for sure going forward. I'm actually coming around to it being a lot of fun more and more. Kind of feel sorry for the rest - IMO they are going to get demolished.
Yeah, if Fickell and Rhule work out, we're really talking about things gearing up.
 
Only concern is Colo is probably going to try to hit Sims and make him give the ball up. I'm still thinking he will scramble some, they will run several designed runs for him, and that Colo will miss some assignments here.
 
Only concern is Colo is probably going to try to hit Sims and make him give the ball up. I'm still thinking he will scramble some, they will run several designed runs for him, and that Colo will miss some assignments here.
And Colorado had zero sacks last week on 42 pass attempts while giving up 260+ yards on the ground.
 
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