30th post in the thread and finally fully getting my feet wet...
Nothing too sexy about Michigan's opener other than JJ looked like the best QB in the B16. This is the natural progression for this kid (more the old school way of a QB growing up, and a reminder guys like Tua and Trevor are not the norm). I think a critical comment during the broadcast was how much that shoulder injury was still aa factor till late into the 2022 season.
ECU, well coached and they decided that the run was going to be their focus... The OL was great in pass protection, and average in run blocking...
Now, some quick hitters from the game...
-Corum looked a bit tentative at times. I understand how hard that first real game action is, so we'll leave this as a minor worry.
-Wilson looked great in that #1 jersey. With great health, he is such a weapon and he looked like he has taken that next step
-They will be trying different OL combos these first few games. As long as they are gelling by mid-October, they'll be fine. They do have 10 starters, basically.
-Loveland is dirty.
-Place kicking is an absolute worry
-Skeleton coaching staff did well enough. The players definitely felt like something was missing.
-We should see full secondary in the next few weeks. The backups played pretty well. This could be a blessing.
-I cannot really get a full feel for the DL until they play a team that isn't trying to quick pass.
Lets talk the clock rules and Michigan...
Michigan passed the ball THIRTY times through 3 quarters of football. That is WILD, yet they only had 6 full drives during those 3 quarters. I am not counting the 48 second Fg drive at the end of the half (although, that was much better 2 min drill than they usually do)
Those drives included the 4 TD's, the fumble at goal-line and the opening 3 and out deep in their own zone. The drives in the 1H were pretty efficient, averaging around 4 mins per. The two drives in the 3Q were more workmanlike, UM drives that we are used too.
I think, barring turnovers, we will see around 2 drives a quarter for Michigan for now. I want to get into that mindset of 5 tops in a half as far as TT's and totals are concerned. You have to very efficient in that time to get the requisite points.
We'll keep tracking and see when all said and done.
Overall, in the ECU game, I would say 11-14 total points were left off the board (so 44-47 total).
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Elsewhere in the B16...
I'll usually go over the boxes Saturday night and detail a bit more on my recap but this is a hectic week. Next week I will be more thorough.
Here is what I bet on in the league last week...
Nebraska +7.5
WVU TT u14.5
Ohio State u55.5 live (near end of 1Q)
Michigan 2h tt o17.5
I am very happy with all of those bets, except the UM 2h play.
Nebraska was a late addition to the card (basically went from 0 plays Thursday to 3 right before kick after a good discussion session with a few locally). That bet was never in doubt, albeit another heartbreaker for the Husker faithful.
I knew once the margin was 24 in Happy Valley that they would go for two. The part that ticks me off is PSU let up on that drive at 31-7 and let WVU go down pretty easily. Consequently, they then decided to come back for the cover. That's simply more work than was needed, hehe.
Okay, we know OSU and their level of offensive success the last decade. That live number was PURELY of a reputation. I honestly thought it was a mistake. Anyways, with their '2 QB's + clock rules and a pedestrian IU offense, that was easy money.
Michigan easily should have had 3 scores in the 2h....BUT...as I wrote on my post, I knew they needed perfection. Simply put, if you are going to bet a 3 score TT, you better have 5-6 possessions coming your way in a half. I like other parts of the cap, but otherwise a forced play...
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Couple of quick hitter conference thoughts...
-I've been on the PSU/Allar train all off-season. So far, so good.
-Ohio State will be a factor by conference season. But, the ND game is even more interesting now.
-Wisconsin running game is dirty, as expected
-Michigan State is very pedestrian
-Iowa is still Iowa
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***Handicapping note -- Washington had zero issue with 'balance' vs Boise. Michigan States strength is the front 7. I'd expect the Huskies gameplan is similar in that matchup
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Week #2
I'll be in attendance in Ann Arbor this Saturday. Pretty excited to get down there and enjoy the atmosphere.
Two Friday night games, and a big one in the
@Teapot9 household! Nice comeback by the Illini last week. They aren't pretty but I think they exert ball control in this one and win a close one...
Purdue and VT is a very interesting game. I will defer to
@PaintCrew here but this is a great watch for future handicapping...
Iowa and Iowa State is always fun. I like to hope for a quick few scores and immediately go into live under mode...
A few of these games are not worth mentioning...
Wazzou hosting Wisconsin is interesting. The Badgers owe them one here. I am capping this a bit harder looking for UW angles...
Charlotte and the Terps played last year, 56-21 was the final. I do not remember my bets, but I made a nice amount of money in that shootout. Keep and eye out on Charlotte this year and next. Biff is a pretty legendary HS coach who's had a very important role at Michigan the past few years. He brought several transfers with him as well. Guys love playing for him. I'd expect them to be a sneaky ATS team at some point...
We all know how EMU is as a dog! They are definitely on my radar this week vs a pedestrian Minnesota offense...
Rutgers laying a solid tariff vs the Owls, but I think this is the type of game they can control nicely, like last week. On the radar...
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Lastly, we can start handicapping UM/UNLV more. I know A LOT OF you like the over.
Admittedly, I took an under position here "to start".
Convince me how Michigan scores 6 tuddies and a FG for the over to have a chance, and we'll go from there...
Again, that clock is in effect. For as much as Jim says he wants 50/50 play ratio, I feel like they will want to pound the rock a bit harder this weekend....