BIG-- season win total play--w/ writeup

[tee*dub]

Shared some thoughts with guys on PM and in case anyone is interested I am large on this play.

All made in vegas on tuesday this week.. Had to spread it around as I ran out of options at a few places with low limits. Changed the number as I moved along. (Hilton is by far the best place to play bets like this but they limit it and keep track of you when you try to circle back)

This is what I played and I know some of these numbers are no longer available:

St Louis Cardinals season win total OVER

over 75.5, -110; 3300-3000 Hilton
over 76, -110; 1100-1000 Hilton
over 76, -125; 2500-2000 Ceasars
over 77.5 +110; 2000-2200 Wynn
added O75.5 +100, 2000-2000 Local/on-line

and only because I was shocked at the value and couldn't pass it up, small play on:

Cards to win NL Central +1500; 500-7500, Hilton

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Thoughts:

Lineup will look like this-

Shumacher RF-- having nice spring but has never been an everyday player. Won't be an everyday player TY either but will get a majority of the starts in right.

Duncan LF-- Struggled mightily this spring after being out several days with sore back. Healthy now and if he gets 500 Abs this year he projects as a 30 hr guy and hitting in front of Pujols he will get plenty to hit. Brutal on defense but he is what he is.

Pujols 1b-- elbow is going to be a concern all year but he is paid to hit and he will hit again this year after having what he has said is his best spring ever in terms of seeing the ball and executing his swing mechanics. Had no protection at all last year and still did his thing.. Much better lineup around him this year.

Ankiel CF-- The kid has had a huge spring playing an effortless CF and hitting well above .300 with power all spring.. LY had a combined 40+ homers in AAA and bigs and think he can easily get to 30+ this year. The fact Larussa is batting him 4th to protect Pujols says a lot about the confidence they have in him

Glaus 3B-- Big upgrade over Rolen's weak and injured bat in 07.. Some expected Glaus to bat 4th and protect Pujols, but he will start batting 5th as his career numbers are much better in that spot. Bothersome heel which cost him much of last season hasn't been a problem this spring and his average has been well over .300 with power.

Molina C-- Hit better last year and is gold glove caliber behing the plate.

Kennedy 2b-- Struggled all of last year after free agent signing but appears to have settled his swing down hitting .350 this spring.. This is a concern for me however.

Izturis SS-- Signed for his glove only and even that has been disappointing in spring.. Hasn't hit a lick and this also is a concern

Bench-- should be a good bench with extra outfielders Brian Barton (Rule 5 pickup from Indians --one their top prospect) and Ryan Ludwick providing pop off the bech.. Top prospect Colby Rasmus CF was sent to AAA camp but will be in St Louis soon.. He is a five tool guy that has the potential to play a lot of different roles in the lineup from leadoff to cleanup. Juan Gonzalez looked good early in spring but in a HUGE SURPRISE, pulled up lame twowards the end. Had he stayed healthy, would have made the 25 man roster but it is doubtful he will ever play for the birds as he would have to accept an assignment in AAA to do it.. Not happening IMO

Starting pitching--

This is why the early number (75) indicates the Cardinals are in for a long season.. They will break camp with the following rotation.

1- Wainwright-- a legit number one as he was third in ERA after the All star break LY
2- Lohse-- key free agent pickup-- Has looked very sharp.. Under the radar guy who gotted totally disrespected in the free agent period and sighned an incentive laden 1 yr deal.. Like guys with incentive laden 1 yr deals and a chip on their shoulder--plus he has talent.
3-Looper-- Double digit winner LY after making transition from the bullpen.. Servicable in this role.
4- Wellenmyer- may surprise some as this KC Royal castoff has good stuff but control has always been his problem
5- Thompson- by default and due to other injuries he will get a couple starts in April..

Now at some point the Cards will get one, two maybe three and possibly all four of the following back..

Mark Mulder-- Rotator cuff surgery in Sept but is 2-3 weeks away from rehab start..

Joel Pinero-- General soreness in arm but was very good for the Cards late last year and will be ready in 2-3 weeks also.. Nothing structurally wrong with arm.

Matt Clement-- Free agent pick-up with bum arm.. I'll be surprised if he makes it back but it is a possibility.

Chris Carpenter-- On pace for rehab starts in late June.. Coming off of Tommy John surgery he is already throwing hard and hasn't had a single setback.. History shows James Andrews' (Birm doctor) Tommy John patients come back at a very high rate and a very high level.. I expect Carp to make a big impact in the season's 2H.

Summary of the play--- Variety of numbers out there but I would make this play up to 80 or 81.. I see this being a plus .500 team as it starts the season and if they only get one or two of the injured starters back I think they can easily get to 85 wins.. The division is going to be tight with the Brewers, Cubs, Reds and Cards all in the mix... The number is at 76ish because of the loss of Edmonds and Rolen who were totally useless and the starting rotation troubles .. IMO both have been solved and no way this team finishes 10 games below .500. I am not counting on this--BUT it is very possible the Cards 2H rotation could look like this- Wainwright, Carpenter, Mulder, Pinero/Looper, Lohse

This is a big play for me and may be my only play of the MLB season. Have lots of other research if anyone has questions.. Good luck this year guys.. And go Cards.

 

[RambleOn]

Looks good, may ride along. At least it will give me a team to cheer for this year, since I hate baseball but want to bet it. I've got Over 76 -120 on Bookmaker, will probably ride along.....

 

[tee*dub]

Looks good, may ride along. At least it will give me a team to cheer for this year, since I hate baseball but want to bet it. I've got Over 76 -120 on Bookmaker, will probably ride along.....

That is a decent number based on what I am seeing out here right now.. Lohse looked good today in his first spring start so I could see this moving towards 78 or 79... Lohse is a key factor in the early going-- until some of the starters get back... Under the radar play but I really see it as solid.. Spent alot of time on it and several others . This one stood out... GL Ramble:cheers:

 

[tee*dub]

Good news in Mulders first throw versus hitters--

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<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=581 border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD>Mulder faces hitters for first time
Cardinals lefty throws 30 pitches to Minor Leaguers
By Matthew Leach / MLB.com
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JUPITER, Fla. -- With an array of observers from the Cardinals' front office and coaching staff as well as teammates looking on, Mark Mulder threw to hitters Saturday for the first time since September of last year.​

He started a bit slow, but by the time Mulder's 30-pitch session had ended, he was excited about how he was throwing. Mulder mixed in a full assortment of fastballs and offspeed offerings during the course of 10 simulated plate appearances.
"I came away very happy with it, especially the way I ended," Mulder said. "If I would have thrown all of them the way I started, those first 10 or 15, I probably wouldn't have been real happy with it. But the way I felt at the end, I was pleased with that."
Mulder threw to a group of three Minor League hitters: Allen Craig, Daniel Descalso and Oliver Marmol. The players took simulated at-bats, totaling one walk and one "base hit" on the empty field. Mulder broke one hitter's bat and threw approximately 16 to 18 of his pitches for strikes.
Early in the session, Mulder left many of his pitches up. He missed high with his fastball and didn't get good action on his curveball. After the 15-pitch mark, though, he got his pitches down and his stuff got sharper.
Mulder broke Marmol's bat on a popup, and also got the infielder to dive after a pitch that dove viciously down and out of the strike zone. Eleven of Mulder's final 16 pitches went for strikes.
"Everything doesn't work as smoothly when I'm loosening up and playing catch, but once I start to get into the flow of it, it starts to move quicker," Mulder said. "But where we're at right now, we're just finishing up when I'm starting to feel good.
"The first 15 pitches, it was tough for me to get loose, and the last 15 I was much more pleased with. We were debating whether to stop in between 15, and I'm glad I didn't. Because it would have been harder for me to get going."

Mulder underwent left shoulder surgery in September, his second operation on the joint in a little more than a year. He has been gradually building up his workload, throwing bullpen sessions since early in spring. On Saturday, however, he took a significant step forward.

"I feel strong," Mulder said. "There's a different strong when you get on the mound and you've got to go innings and the competitive juices start flowing. That's a little different. But I was very pleased with the way I felt [Saturday]."
Manager Tony La Russa, pitching coach Dave Duncan and bullpen coach Marty Mason watched Mulder, as did general manager John Mozeliak, assistant general manager John Abbamondi, members of the Cardinals' scouting department and pitchers Chris Carpenter and Jason Isringhausen.
"I thought from the beginning, when you put everything together, he was outstanding," La Russa said. "He made a bunch of good throws."
Mulder will likely throw to hitters again in three days. He is still probably several throws away from getting into a game, but he has encountered no setbacks in his rehabilitation process. The club's target date for him has been sometime in May, and nothing has occurred to change that plan. "I haven't had any days where I came away hurting or real sore or anything like that," he said. "I've just had days where my arm didn't just flop back. I'd say it's some of those bad habits, but it's more just that I couldn't trust it that day. It's nothing bad. It's just not something you want to continue to keep doing."

 

[cubsker]

I think the posted number is right on. This won't be a good team. They won't get anyone out. Wellemeyer is just terrible. I saw him for 3 different years with the Cubs and Royals and he just gets lit up. I know he had a decent end to 07, but I just don't see it. His fastball is just too straight to be effective. I don't think Duncan is going to do much. He can't hit lefties and he isn't hitting righties at this point either. The bottom of the Cards lineup is just downright terrible. Kennedy and Izturis are out machines that just won't get on base. Bad, bad, bad. Also, once they're out of the race, they might shelve Pujols and have him get the surgery over with.

 

[tee*dub]

I think the posted number is right on. This won't be a good team. They won't get anyone out. Wellemeyer is just terrible. I saw him for 3 different years with the Cubs and Royals and he just gets lit up. I know he had a decent end to 07, but I just don't see it. His fastball is just too straight to be effective. I don't think Duncan is going to do much. He can't hit lefties and he isn't hitting righties at this point either. The bottom of the Cards lineup is just downright terrible. Kennedy and Izturis are out machines that just won't get on base. Bad, bad, bad. Also, once they're out of the race, they might shelve Pujols and have him get the surgery over with.

average team, not bad team bro.. average teams go .500 in the NL Central. Number off by 5 games IMO.. Biggest I found in MLB.. Health:cheers:

I project Ankiel, Pujols and Glaus all at +30 hrs and Duncan not far behind.. Most bottoms stuggle in the NL.. Not talking about a World Series contender here but they are much better than 10 games under .500 IMO

 

[MusicCityGambler]

I applaud your courage tee. The Cardinals are truly a team that could go any number of directions. If everything goes right(for some reason the Cardinals always seem to get the breaks they can't control) then they could win 84. However if the injuries pile up then this team could struggle to break 73.

There are just too many ?s looming on that team for this season to bet them to go OVER 76-78 wins beginning with Albert's long term health which might cause him to miss much of the season. Mulder and Carpenter might never be healthy this year.

Ankiel, is he the real deal or just a tease?

I do think Glaus will be a big upgrade over Rolen because he'll actually play and he isn't a clubhouse pariah.

Like cubsker, I think the number is close to what should happen and if I had to bet it'd be the under.Cincy, Milwaukee, Houston and the Cubs could all be better which isn't good for STL.

 

[otterj]

Houston Over 72.5 is the play that I found to be best win total bet in the MLB. Also Hou -1 vs. KC. Both at the greek.

 

[tee*dub]

Houston Over 72.5 is the play that I found to be best win total bet in the MLB. Also Hou -1 vs. KC. Both at the greek.

Leaned it..GL

 

[RambleOn]

Leaned it..GL

opcorn: at you "leaning".


I need some plays, son.

 

[tee*dub]

beginning with Albert's long term health which might cause him to miss much of the season.

What up MCG..Pujols has had his best spring in his career.. He has had a bum right elbow for 4-5 years and its no worse/no better. Doesn't affect his swing and he will limit his exposure playing at first as he has the last several years.. Only the fantasy geeks are talking about this. He was quoted this week in StlPD that he has never seen the ball this well ever and has felt this way from day one of spring training.. Hitting over .400 with power, could be a monster year. If you believe he is really 28 (I don't) but this is the point in most guys careers that they have a career year.. I am more worried about his hammies to be honest.

Ankiel--- People will not believe this but reports from St Louis indicate they feel he is gold glove quality in CF. I really believe he is the real deal..

I am making this bet without the injured pitchers, have them as a .500 team right now.. Now if they get one (or more) of the following back, they are in the mid 80's IMO: Mulder, Pinero, Carpenter, Clement... The first three are all on scheduled to be back by mid June at the latest Pinero and Mulder much earlier..

No one else but me is on this?... Like it:shake: A bit under the radar but check the last time the Cards have had back to back losing seasons.. Larussa came back for a reason. Lots of talent with young guys and tons of folks to trade , if needed to pick up the missing parts later.

 

[RetroVK]

i took the reds over 77 ( basically opposite of my big season total bet a yer ago which was reds under the total ). Most improved team in the division. very nice starting rotation , drastically improved bullpen , and young hitters that seem to be improving. As long as Dunn doesnt strike out a million times and griffey stays healthy ( a big if no doubt ) i dont see why they dont contend for the division and flirt with over 500 baseball. possibly the best defensive team in national league too which doesnt hurt.

thoughts ?

 

[RetroVK]

also good luck with the cards ... except when they play the reds

 

[cubsker]

I think the Reds have a better chance of cracking 500 than the cards.

I just think that lineup is so bad. You have 3 almost automatic outs at the end of the lineup with AK, CI, and the pitcher. Molina isn't a good hitter either. What if that was a career year for him last year? That means you have 4 players in your lineup that can't hit a lick every day. The scary thing is that LaRussa might bat Kennedy or Izturis 2nd which would be terrible. I'm not a big Duncan fan. Schumaker shouldn't be a starter though he could prove me wrong. If the pitching implodes, this team might not get to 70. Being in the NL Cent. may help you win this though.

 

[MusicCityGambler]

i took the reds over 77 ( basically opposite of my big season total bet a yer ago which was reds under the total ). Most improved team in the division. very nice starting rotation , drastically improved bullpen , and young hitters that seem to be improving. As long as Dunn doesnt strike out a million times and griffey stays healthy ( a big if no doubt ) i dont see why they dont contend for the division and flirt with over 500 baseball. possibly the best defensive team in national league too which doesnt hurt.

thoughts ?

I would not be surprised if the Reds won the division.

 

[MusicCityGambler]

What up MCG..Pujols has had his best spring in his career.. He has had a bum right elbow for 4-5 years and its no worse/no better. Doesn't affect his swing and he will limit his exposure playing at first as he has the last several years.. Only the fantasy geeks are talking about this. He was quoted this week in StlPD that he has never seen the ball this well ever and has felt this way from day one of spring training.. Hitting over .400 with power, could be a monster year. If you believe he is really 28 (I don't) but this is the point in most guys careers that they have a career year.. I am more worried about his hammies to be honest.

Ankiel--- People will not believe this but reports from St Louis indicate they feel he is gold glove quality in CF. I really believe he is the real deal..

I am making this bet without the injured pitchers, have them as a .500 team right now.. Now if they get one (or more) of the following back, they are in the mid 80's IMO: Mulder, Pinero, Carpenter, Clement... The first three are all on scheduled to be back by mid June at the latest Pinero and Mulder much earlier..

No one else but me is on this?... Like it:shake: A bit under the radar but check the last time the Cards have had back to back losing seasons.. Larussa came back for a reason. Lots of talent with young guys and tons of folks to trade , if needed to pick up the missing parts later.

My grandfather played for the Cardinals(I'm the only person in the extended family who does not like the Cardinals,I'm the biggest Phillies fan you'll meet). So I hang around a lot of people who love that team. None of them are very enthusiastic at this moment. I hope you nail this bet tee, I think it's got a chance but I think there are better plays on total wins board.(SF UNDER)

 

[orange&white]

i took the reds over 77 ( basically opposite of my big season total bet a yer ago which was reds under the total ). Most improved team in the division. very nice starting rotation , drastically improved bullpen , and young hitters that seem to be improving. As long as Dunn doesnt strike out a million times and griffey stays healthy ( a big if no doubt ) i dont see why they dont contend for the division and flirt with over 500 baseball. possibly the best defensive team in national league too which doesnt hurt.

thoughts ?

I like the Reds and Astros over from the Central.

 

[Satyr]

fantastic stuff Tee dub, simply great. best of luck this season. :cheers:

 

[PaintCrew]

I think the Reds have a better chance of cracking 500 than the cards.

I just think that lineup is so bad. You have 3 almost automatic outs at the end of the lineup with AK, CI, and the pitcher. Molina isn't a good hitter either. What if that was a career year for him last year? That means you have 4 players in your lineup that can't hit a lick every day. The scary thing is that LaRussa might bat Kennedy or Izturis 2nd which would be terrible. I'm not a big Duncan fan. Schumaker shouldn't be a starter though he could prove me wrong. If the pitching implodes, this team might not get to 70. Being in the NL Cent. may help you win this though.

Last season couldn't have gone worse for the Cards and they were still one game out with 20 or so to play. If they catch any sort of break (like one of the starters coming back or keeping half the roster off the DL) they'll compete all season in this division. For the rotation being in as bad of shape as it is it's entirely possible that they'll be upgrading the lineup come the All Star break by dealing some of that excess pitching.

 

[PaintCrew]

By the way I'm biased...I'm a Cards fan...and I played O 75.5

 

[grapevinekid]

When I saw the Cards pitching woes in the paper this a.m. I was actually thinking under figuring the line would be somewhere around 83-84 wins. When I saw my book had 76 I decided to pass but I'd love to see Ankiel have a big season and they may have enough offense to get to .500:shake:

 

[tee*dub]

Think the Red backers have the right thought process.. Much improved but they got guys who have trouble staying healthy.. That is the question mark.. I actually like the Reds heads up against the Cards in the early going due to the Reds lefties versus the Cards weak lefty pitching, with Tyler Johnson now definately out.. That is a decided edge for the Reds.

As it currently stands the Cards have won 11 of last 13 I think in spring training and their "weak lineup" looks pretty good.. Show me a National league team that has strength at the bottom Cubster.. They are all weak with very few exceptions. Pujols is the best hitter in the NL period, and Glaus and Ankiel are legit 30+ HR guys. That is not a weak lineup bro. And again we are not asking them to win 85 games. 77 does it.. This line is 5 games off and I am sticking with it...

I make these bets every year and have done quite well.. The key is to look for value and under the radar teams. This one is loaded with value as everyone says the lineup is weak and the pitching is limited... Love that perception which is why I am on it..Because perception isn't reality IMO.. Difficult to evaluate young talent. (Shumacher, Colby Rasmus, Ankiel, Duncan) Which is why this one is under the radar.. No one knows much about all this young untested talent- these are spots I like to jump on.

It is funny- a bro of mine says-- hows can you bet a team that has Brad Thompson and Wellenmyer in the starting rotation? My answer- that is exactly why I am betting them.. The number is 75/76 because of those guys and the perception that is all the Cardinals have. The reality is, the Cards have 4 other legit middle to top of the rotation guys injured but healing and if two of those guys come back the second half of the season looks very bright.. AND because this team is young and lots of guys are playing for big contracts or major league jobs-- even if they struggle early, they infuse the young talent (see file on Colby Rasmus guys-5 tool stud) and they can hang around .500 ...

The best play I can offer-- Reason I say it is because it is likely my only play in MLB this year (at least at this level)

Like it a lot more now than when I originally made the post..

Ramble-- probably done with CBB.. nice little run in Vegas and unless I see something special I am likely going to be a very boring poster until FB.. Don't like anything in S16 but maybe something later.. Keep an eye on Tennesee . That is my only lean.:cheers:

 

[tee*dub]

added two more dimes at Stl O75.5 +100..:new_shocked:

Did this on line at a credit site that I have used in the past but really don't like and swore not to play it again.. But number was better than anywhere else and I am having trouble moving money to where I really want to play the extra units.. Long story not suitable for here.. I miss Pinny.

 

[SportsNut]

Wish ya Good Luck Tee. I definetly agree this has alot of value especialy looking the division and the NL in general . What I like and you have mentioned is that usually a team with so many rehabbing SP's is reying on those guys to contribute. From what I have read your correct there doesnt seem to be much expectations from these guys. Which is great because its all upside then as compared to depending on these guys to do something.

I would be concerned about Pujols being healthy cause he is starting to become somewhat injury prone but as you mentioned they have 3 other legit sluggers in Glaus , Ankiel , and Duncan . Not to mention a good manager and good pitching coach. BOL:cheers:

 

[RetroVK]

The team definitely has a good manager.
the team definitely has good fan support at home.
the team definitely has a decent top to middle lineup.
the team definitely has a decent bullpen
the team definitely has potential upside with carpenter and company if they can get healthy and perform to normal levels.
the team definitely plays in a division where you would not think they get blown away by everyone else in the division.
the team definitely has power.

my major concern is that the team rates to start very slow, despite spring training ball results. If they start too slow they could mail it in a little , not make necessary moves near the all star break , pujols surgery may turn into a go etc etc.... when i bet a team over a total i usually expect a decent first half to the season as the season builds on itself a little. That is to say that those teams that are contending make moves to win and those who are not make moves to save money or prepare for the following year. With that said, hard to imagine the cubs or the brewers or the reds having THAT big of a lead over stlouis halfway thru the year. And with a total this low and a team built like the cards , outside of pujols i dont think there is a major injury that would just crush the bet ( see santana mets , peavy padres , webb dbacks , etc etc. ).

i think your analysis of going after under the radar teams is accurate for season win totals to bet over. Obviously, it is usually better to bet under on the overrated popular teams.

dont see the cards failing to reach low seventies so i think you will always be in it even if they start slow.... as you say ... you arent asking them to win 85... just 76 , 77 , 78 or so. All in all , with potential for starting rotation to be that formidable if all falls into place , you probably have some value with the bet. Either way , this jackalope right here will be cheering for you to cash some mighty big tickets come season end.

gl tee !

 

[Tide High]

great thread. GL

 

[pigeon]

bad pick i think. they are in a competitive division with the cream being the cubs and brewers. the reds are vastly improved. the astros and pirates will give the cardinals problems as well. the cardinals offense is one dimensional with no speed or table setter. izturis and kennedy are supposed to be the "speed" guys, give me a break. a bunch of free swinging homerun hitters - duncan, glaus, ankiel. their lineup is atrocious and simply put, the cardinals are overmatched and will top out at 70 wins.

 

[Big Herm]

Not sure I can buy into the Cards. That lineup is really shaky from 6 on down and I am not sold on the first 5 all that much either. Pujols it the only guy I think you can count on in that lineup. Ankiel and Duncan are unproven and this lineup has a ton of power but not much OBP/AVG guys. It won't surprise me to see Duncan and Ankiel hit 30 HRs apiece, but I don't know that it will make a huge difference. I just see a big bag of nothing in Izturis, Kennedy, Molina, and the P spot in the lineup and too many questions surrounding the other guys(Glaus is another big power guy with questionable BA abilities and an injury history).

Their staff is so very underwhelming. I like Wainrwight, and think he will be pretty solid. Everything about Lohse is scary(Career 1.43 Whip an .284 BAA) and the rest of the rotation is about on par with that thought. Looper has shown flashes but is really just a bottom of the rotation guy. He's a 33 year-old carer reliever who has never been that spectacular. Wellenmeyer? You had me at KC castoff. Bullpen has some good guys, but is thin. IF anyone gets hurt I would think it could be really detrimental to their team.

As far as the competition goes, I see every team improving in this division except STL. The Cubs and Brewers are very talented teams and I would think both are capable of high 90's win totals.

Pitt is a very young team that has showed some signs of being capable at times. They have young pitchers who are going to be due for breakout seasons(Snell, Gorzelanny, Maholm and maybe even Duke). Their lineup doesn't have the mashers STL doesn't have the mashing ability of STL, but if Bay rebounds I like their offense better top to bottom.

The Stros are a bit pitching weak after Oswalt, but damn their offense could be explosive. Cincy has a nice rotation with Harang leading the way and it could be even better if Volquez turns out to be the gem I think he will.

All in all, I just think this bet would need some things to go right to hit. Don't mean to be a downer, and I still don't think it is a no-go, I would just lean the other way.

 

[RambleOn]

bad pick i think. they are in a competitive division with the cream being the cubs and brewers. the reds are vastly improved. the astros and pirates will give the cardinals problems as well. the cardinals offense is one dimensional with no speed or table setter. izturis and kennedy are supposed to be the "speed" guys, give me a break. a bunch of free swinging homerun hitters - duncan, glaus, ankiel. their lineup is atrocious and simply put, the cardinals are overmatched and will top out at 70 wins.

:hang::seeya:

 

[tee*dub]

The team definitely has a good manager.
the team definitely has good fan support at home.
the team definitely has a decent top to middle lineup.
the team definitely has a decent bullpen
the team definitely has potential upside with carpenter and company if they can get healthy and perform to normal levels.
the team definitely plays in a division where you would not think they get blown away by everyone else in the division.
the team definitely has power.

my major concern is that the team rates to start very slow, despite spring training ball results. If they start too slow they could mail it in a little , not make necessary moves near the all star break , pujols surgery may turn into a go etc etc.... when i bet a team over a total i usually expect a decent first half to the season as the season builds on itself a little. That is to say that those teams that are contending make moves to win and those who are not make moves to save money or prepare for the following year. With that said, hard to imagine the cubs or the brewers or the reds having THAT big of a lead over stlouis halfway thru the year. And with a total this low and a team built like the cards , outside of pujols i dont think there is a major injury that would just crush the bet ( see santana mets , peavy padres , webb dbacks , etc etc. ).

i think your analysis of going after under the radar teams is accurate for season win totals to bet over. Obviously, it is usually better to bet under on the overrated popular teams.

dont see the cards failing to reach low seventies so i think you will always be in it even if they start slow.... as you say ... you arent asking them to win 85... just 76 , 77 , 78 or so. All in all , with potential for starting rotation to be that formidable if all falls into place , you probably have some value with the bet. Either way , this jackalope right here will be cheering for you to cash some mighty big tickets come season end.

gl tee !

Good, well thought out post..:cheers:

 

[tee*dub]

I see every team improving in this division except STL. .

Thanks Herm .. Appreciate you taking the time. Your point above is what most think and why the number has value.. Couple quick thoughts on the other side of this statement.

• First, I agree the Cards will have times they struggle this year. AGREE 100%. Just asking them to be mostly average which I think they can
• Cards lost Edmonds and Rolen.. Two former all-stars that are old and injured (note, both starting the year on DL for new teams) Both replacements are a huge upgrade offensively and because neither Rolen or Edmunds played much I would argue the defense is at least the same or slightly better.. Glaus, if healthy and appears to be will hit 25-30 more HRs than Rolen who had become a warning track hitter with the bum shoulder.. Ankiel is going to be a gold glove outfielder and has plus power.. Most people do not realize who Rick Ankiel , the outfielder is.. He is one of the fastest players in the NL as one scout rated his speed in the top 5. With the power and the large arm in the outfield this is a definate upgrade over Jimmy Baseball... Most people don't see this point but I am definately a believer.
• SP is upgraded.. Again, most people don't see it but its true.. Keep in mind, Carpenter blew his elbow in April so the Cards didn't have him all year LY. Even if they get him back as late as July the fact they have him at all is graded as an upgrade.. Exit Kip Wells, Enter Kyle Lohse= Upgrade.. Exit Anthoney Reyes, Enter Joel Pinero= upgrade. (starting year on DL but nothing serious) Plus, add an injured guy or two and it is definately an upgrade...
• Bullpen was good last year and will be good again.
• Bottom of the lineup--- Over rated analysis point in the NL.. It was bad last year and it will be bad again this year, next year and the year after.. Name a catcher that truly helps offensively? Do the same at short (a couple) and then at second (a couple).. I think Izturis can be a .240 avg, .330 OBP guy and I'll take it.. Kennedy is key I admit.. This is a spot where the Cards will have a bunch of SP to trade at some point to upgrade if needed.. I'll give Kennedy the benefit of the doubt. But he is really not a factor in this bet..

Love the discussion guys and don't get me wrong. I am not trying to talk anyone into this bet. I did a couple weeks of pretty hard analysis and just sharing what I see and the reasons I am large on it..:cheers:

 

[tee*dub]

bad pick i think. they are in a competitive division with the cream being the cubs and brewers. the reds are vastly improved. the astros and pirates will give the cardinals problems as well. the cardinals offense is one dimensional with no speed or table setter. izturis and kennedy are supposed to be the "speed" guys, give me a break. a bunch of free swinging homerun hitters - duncan, glaus, ankiel. their lineup is atrocious and simply put, the cardinals are overmatched and will top out at 70 wins.

Health... let me know how your season goes bro. 70-92 huh:4_12_12:

Competitive division I agree but also qualifies as the worst division in baseball. Big reason for my play.. No one gets to 95 wins in this division or even close. Because someone has to win every game and because they largely play each other, well, several teams are going to be between 75-85. Think the Cards are in the middle of that.. Season win totals is a very involved process because the division is one of the key elements along with interleague opponents etc. Seems like you got it figured out so I won't bore you:shake:

 

[tee*dub]

speaking of interleague, Cards have:

KC (6)
TB (3)
Bos (3)
Det (3)

Cards always play the Royals 6 times which doesn't seem fair given the Royals flaws in recent years but it plays out nicely for this bet.. Also catching TB as the other AL East team (instead of the Yankess) is a break.. So basically, the cards play 9 games against bad teams and 6 games against good teams.. I viewed this as a slight advantage for this bet but mostly a wash... Just fyi

 

[reNew Orleans]

I wouldn't call KC and TB bad teams, i'm sure others may agree here

 

[tee*dub]

I wouldn't call KC and TB bad teams, i'm sure others may agree here

Sorry, didn't mean to offend the Royal and Rays backers that clog these forums, but both are expected to be well below .500.. KC (73) TB (75).. I was within one of both of those numbers and if a team is expected to be 10 games or more below .500, I consider them bad, not horrible but bad. Just my rating terminology Renew.. GL this year by the way!!!

 

[chancedog]

BOL Tee looks good

 

[BetCrimes1984]

The reality is, the Cards have 4 other legit middle to top of the rotation guys injured but healing and if two of those guys come back the second half of the season looks very bright..

The only problem I see with this thought process is, if the Cards season at the time is a writeoff (ie. the division has a runaway leader, against all forecasting) then the way they'd treat such rehabbed pitchers is to either give them the entire season off (no need to risk them for nothing) or give them a number starts before shutting them down well before season's end.
I'd only forsee those various injured arms all returning (if possible at all) in unison for the long haul if the Cards were in a position to seriously challenge for a p.s. spot at the time.

I can see a case made for the Cards either falling well short of this total, or exceeding it by a handful of games. And that either scenario will be decided before your banked upon injured cluster of arms return.

BOL

 

[tee*dub]

The only problem I see with this thought process is, if the Cards season at the time is a writeoff (ie. the division has a runaway leader, against all forecasting) then the way they'd treat such rehabbed pitchers is to either give them the entire season off (no need to risk them for nothing) or give them a number starts before shutting them down well before season's end.
I'd only forsee those various injured arms all returning (if possible at all) in unison for the long haul if the Cards were in a position to seriously challenge for a p.s. spot at the time.

I can see a case made for the Cards either falling well short of this total, or exceeding it by a handful of games. And that either scenario will be decided before your banked upon injured cluster of arms return.

BOL

BC, what up bro.. Thanks for stopping by.

Just don't see anyone running away with NL Central. And actually don't think they contend for the title but everyone will be within 8-10 games or better at the break.. Cards have a little different approach organizationally and with a team that sells out tuesday night games in July they tend to play to the end regardless of record. Drawing 3 million a year--its just a little different culture.

Should be interesting.. See cards have won 12 of last 14 in spring training. Means a little more in late March as the pitchers have been dominant against the "late in spring" lineups that usually comprise the opponents everyday lineups.. Lohse has looked outstanding since joining the Cards

Funny to say this, but I like this team better than the 2006 team that broke camp and eventually won the World Series.. Not suggesting this team can even get close to WS but they are much better coming out of camp than the '06 team.

 

[pigeon]

Sorry, didn't mean to offend the Royal and Rays backers that clog these forums, but both are expected to be well below .500.. KC (73) TB (75)..

just like the cardinals are expected to be and of course, will be :shake:

 

[MusicCityGambler]

Funny to say this, but I like this team better than the 2006 team that broke camp and eventually won the World Series.. Not suggesting this team can even get close to WS but they are much better coming out of camp than the '06 team.

Doesn't say much because that team had no business being in the playoffs much less winning the World Series. That was easily the weakest team to ever win a championship in my lifetime.

 

[reNew Orleans]

skip bayless likes your cards to win the division, uh oh... lol

 

[tee*dub]

just like the cardinals are expected to be and of course, will be :shake:

Yep Cards are expected to be a bad team. And I agree. Just not as bad as the betting number suggests.. Thats my bet, nothing more , nothing less..

Pigeon- Don't know you but if you have analysis, bring it, it is welcome by everyone here. However, you are starting to border on something else which is not welcome here.:shake:

 

[tee*dub]

skip bayless likes your cards to win the division, uh oh... lol

:36_11_6:

 

[Kramer]

tee*dub, thoughts on bookmaker's regular season wins matchup cards -2 vs royals??

 

[cubsker]

I don't think anyone has guys as bad as Kennedy and Izturis in the lineup every day. These are two of the worst players in the league. Kennedy's OPS last year was below .600. Izturis's OPS was around .625 or so. That's criminally bad. The Cubs will have Soto and Pie hitting 7th and 8th. I'd be shocked if both weren't above .700.

 

[Big Herm]

I don't think anyone has guys as bad as Kennedy and Izturis in the lineup every day. These are two of the worst players in the league. Kennedy's OPS last year was below .600. Izturis's OPS was around .625 or so. That's criminally bad. The Cubs will have Soto and Pie hitting 7th and 8th. I'd be shocked if both weren't above .700.

This is my thought. Throw Molina and the P in there and you are essentially running a dead lineup out there 6-9. 1-5 is really just too much power and not enough finesse. It may be that they are going to need HRs though, given the bottom of the order. I am actually starting to think they will finish below the Pirates.

 

[tee*dub]

I don't think anyone has guys as bad as Kennedy and Izturis in the lineup every day. These are two of the worst players in the league. Kennedy's OPS last year was below .600. Izturis's OPS was around .625 or so. That's criminally bad. The Cubs will have Soto and Pie hitting 7th and 8th. I'd be shocked if both weren't above .700.

I agree 100%. The Cubs bottom is far superior to the Cardinals. In fact, the Cubs overall are far superior than the Cardinals..That isn't my bet.. If the Cardinals had a decent middle infield (hitting) the number would be well over 80.. My bet is simply the Cardinals are much better than people think, including most on this board, they will only get better throughout the year and playing in a very poor division I believe the number is off the most of anything else I studied..Thus a large bet for me.. Kennedy is on a short leash by the way. I fully expect Brendan Ryan to be the everyday 2B guy.. The only way Kennedy stays there is if he continues to play well as he did in the spring which also works for me.. As for Izturis he was signed for defense only and is an upgrade there.

BTW- Larussa will be batting the pitcher 8th again this year.

 

[tee*dub]

tee*dub, thoughts on bookmaker's regular season wins matchup cards -2 vs royals??

Mostly a National league guy, and I don't have access to this bet --having said that, because I think the Cards get in the low 80's in wins, this looks appealing to me.. Cards play the Royals 6 times so it is an interesting bet from that angle.. GL bro.

 

[imgn]

Bit concerned about a possible worn out bullpen by 2nd half...four of the five starters are 5/6 inning guys...then again,if two or three of the inj. starters return..they can get innings out of the former sp's...problem is that if and once Mulder/ Carp return,they'll most likely be on some sort of pitch-count which means the bullpen will be heavily taxed either way.LaRussa and new GM will need to co-exist and be creative by manipulating minor league system in order to keep a fresh pen for the stretch since this looks like a glaring issue..not much mention of this and it looks like youre basing the play on other key factors that look solid...just wanted to add my 2 cents....like the play and gl Tee :shake:

 

[tee*dub]

Bit concerned about a possible worn out bullpen by 2nd half...four of the five starters are 5/6 inning guys...then again,if two or three of the inj. starters return..they can get innings out of the former sp's...problem is that if and once Mulder/ Carp return,they'll most likely be on some sort of pitch-count which means the bullpen will be heavily taxed either way.LaRussa and new GM will need to co-exist and be creative by manipulating minor league system in order to keep a fresh pen for the stretch since this looks like a glaring issue..not much mention of this and it looks like youre basing the play on other key factors that look solid...just wanted to add my 2 cents....like the play and gl Tee :shake:

Very good post... Well thought out and I agree completely.. Looks like Reyes makes the 25 man as a bullpen guy.. He is a starter so will be able to eat "junk" innings in long relief.. Also keep an eye on Kyle Mccleland. Younf kid, came out of no where (never pitched above AA, nice story, great stuff) but has 4 pitches he can throw for strikes and was outstanding in spring.. Think he will get lots of innings early.. Slightly concerned with Izzy.. Hip is fine but he has had several back flare-ups this spring. Hope he is fine but if not , closer in waiting Perez will be ready for the call up..