Big Alimony 2007 Bowl Thread

B.A.R.

B.A.R.

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Well, regular season not so great. Right at .500 but down units. Not happy with that. But at same point it was a kooky year. Last time I had an average CFB season I rolled the bowls. We'll see what happens. This is the chalk portion of my card. The rest will come later and I would say be quite a few dogs. I have waited to post wanting to do wite-ups...well I lost two of them on word since the other day. Just gonna post em and put in tidbits as we go.

Va Tech -1.5 -110 3 units
FAU -2 -110 2 units
FAU -2.5 -110 2 units
Cincinatti -11 -110 5 units
UM-UF O62.5 -110 2 units
Boston College -3 -120 2.5 units
TCU -4 -110


Any questions about the lines, I posted them in mod forum with timestamps when I played them. I will move it out and link if need be.

Thoughts to follow.
 
I like Va Tech alot...but..I am open to a middle if my thoughts change..why I hit it right away
 
Great value on va tech.
played them last year against georgia .... brb i have to go puke.

kansas has not seen a defense like this all year ... va tech had an embarrassing collapse last year in their bowl game... should be ready to play. Have not fully capped the game by any stretch but i like them at first glance. amazing number grab you made there.
 
vegaskyle said:
Great value on va tech.
played them last year against georgia .... brb i have to go puke.

kansas has not seen a defense like this all year ... va tech had an embarrassing collapse last year in their bowl game... should be ready to play. Have not fully capped the game by any stretch but i like them at first glance. amazing number grab you made there.
Click to expand...
made that right away on Dec 2nd
 
B.A.R. said:
made that right away on Dec 2nd
Click to expand...
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Bowl Picks
<HR style="COLOR: #d1d1e1" SIZE=1><!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->Starting this thread now so I can ensure acurate lines. Won't be playing many early like last year but will play some.

Vigrinia Tech -1.5 -110 3 units
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Good luck. Liking Va Tech a lot, unfortunately I was not at home when the openers came out at Bookmaker and thus had to settle for -3. Va Tech is my biggest play of the bowl season.

Here is what I have played thus far:

Maryland +4.5 +106 3 units
Navy +9 2 units
Florida Atlantic -2 1 unit
BYU -5.5 3 units
Fresno State +4.5 3 units
Arkansas +3.5 3 units
Air Force +4 3 units
Indiana +4.5 3 units
Wisconsin +4 3 units
Michigan +10.5 3 units
Virginia Tech -3 5 units

I like a few others, but already have a lot of plays and a lot of money tied up right now. Jumped on a few of these at key numbers before they moved on me.
 
I wasn't questioning the line BAR , just admiring it. And since at first glance i will be on them as well ... a bit jealous of it.
 
love the TCU...go frogs....Gary will have his team ready....could be the biggest bet of the bowl season for me
 
OK I'm coming out and asking it:

Why does everyone love VPI and TCU so much?

I am anxiously awaiting some answers (seriously, I'm not being sarcastic).
 
BAR,
Please provide your thoughts on the cincy game as your unit count is what i would classify as "droppin the hammer". thanks !
 
I have some stuff gathered up, keep getting busy with small things at end of night but should be good to go tonight.
 
I can't believe the Cincy line dipped.

Gotta talk about the first 3 days of bowls. I'm leaning to Utah -8, FAU -2', on Cincy -11, New Mexico -3, on BYU -6.
 
RJ Esq said:
I can't believe the Cincy line dipped.

Gotta talk about the first 3 days of bowls. I'm leaning to Utah -8, FAU -2', on Cincy -11, New Mexico -3, on BYU -6.
Click to expand...

I lean Utah but will be leaving that game alobe at this point

On FAU and Cincy big. Love the games plus they are playing two shady-ass teams hat won't mind losing ats if ya know what I mean..especially SoPiss and the "Ghost of Dustin Almond".

I have never got a good read on New mexcio this year. Won on them late in year -10 or -11 and was only time it worked out for me with them this year. Lean BYu, but prolly lay off. Would like to get Jpicks thoughts on MWC bowls before proceeding anywhere further on those.
 
Quick TCU thoughts...

I don't like the mindset for Houston coming in. Now, I never win TCU games but we are going tochange that ;). TCU defense I think will control this game. TCU also will be able to move the ball better than they have all season imo. Its been a rough year for TCU. Things totally changed late in first half against the Horns and they have had issues recovering since then. I think this will be their best playd game since early in the season.

Boson College has a great run defense and a solid one overall. Look back at the Michigan St-Ohio St game. If you can limit Ringer and Crick then you have that team. Hoyer is a solid QB, but not when the game is in his hands. Not at all. Now, motivation wise I understand anyone leaning Sparty's way but I really feel the BC defense will be up to task and keep Ringer and Crick controlled. Meanwhile, Ryan should methodically pick apart a average Spartan defense.
 
Started a separate thread for JPicks' thoughts.

Like TCU and lean BC in that game. I'm concerned that MSU will be able to run and that BC is overrated. But I think BC pulls out a close one.
 
RJ Esq said:
Started a separate thread for JPicks' thoughts.

Like TCU and lean BC in that game. I'm concerned that MSU will be able to run and that BC is overrated. But I think BC pulls out a close one.
Click to expand...
Rj, they are number one in country allowing 68.1 ypg on the ground. Sparty couldn't run at all against OSU. In the Michigan game, they couldn't run except for two series in the third quarter. That was the only time in the UM game where they made noise. Ringer broke one and then they got some momentum.

In the ACC Championship game VT had to win it thru the air and even ean Glennon was able to do that. As far as Sparty goes, once the run game gets limited they struggle. Pitt did it to them for a half if not more. See the second half at Iowa.
 
GL bro. Good looking card. I'm looking into the FAU game as we speak, you seem to be pretty high on it, anything in particular that has you soo high on them?
 
like the OU addition, BAR.
this cincy line not moving...even breifly going to 10.5 as such a pub play...has my wheels turning.
pretty much agree w/ everything though...well, except vpi lol.
 
Well, 2- so far on the posted plays for a nice little 0.00 profit. Heh.

Cincy was sooo close and woulda been a great start. No fear though, my two best plays are done but we still have plenty of games left. Tomorrow down in the city...

Central Michigan +8 -110 3 units
 
Ok, somebody is going to have to explain to me how lack of motivation by Purdue with superior talent will prevent them from covering 7 against a team they beat by about 20 earlier in the season.
 
B.A.R. said:
Well, 2- so far on the posted plays for a nice little 0.00 profit. Heh.

Cincy was sooo close and woulda been a great start. No fear though, my two best plays are done but we still have plenty of games left. Tomorrow down in the city...

Central Michigan +8 -110 3 units
Click to expand...

Love it BAR...on it myself and some on the ML
 
RJ Esq said:
Ok, somebody is going to have to explain to me how lack of motivation by Purdue with superior talent will prevent them from covering 7 against a team they beat by about 20 earlier in the season.
Click to expand...

I was just reading the sports section here today and Tiller talks of how he is "fired" up to be playing in Detroit, because its so close to his hometown of Toledo. That is so laughable to me. Dorien Bryant has already asked if they could could "decline" a bowl bid. These kids had to spend x-mas in a northern cold-weather city. I mean, its one thing to be in hawaii for x-mas or down south but jesus. These teams are not the same as they were3 months ago either. Purdue is like a Minnesota in the Big Ten--they start strong and fade late. Granted, CMU's defense isn't anything great but its much better than it was back in Sept and early October. Ford Field sits about 63,000 and I would guess at least 75 percent of those will be Chips fans. Its not like they need to travel far. Most are down this way for the Holidays anyway. I think it will be an electric atmosphere. I would almost consider it a home game. So, thats like getting 11 points.

This line has ben wacky though. Opened at 4, got crushed to 10, back to 7 and now back to 8. I waited so long for a 10 to pop up when it was 9...then it went to 7..patience, got the 8. I wouldn't be suprised if they won it on the field.
 
B.A.R. said:
I was just reading the sports section here today and Tiller talks of how he is "fired" up to be playing in Detroit, because its so close to his hometown of Toledo. That is so laughable to me. Dorien Bryant has already asked if they could could "decline" a bowl bid. These kids had to spend x-mas in a northern cold-weather city. I mean, its one thing to be in hawaii for x-mas or down south but jesus. These teams are not the same as they were3 months ago either. Purdue is like a Minnesota in the Big Ten--they start strong and fade late. Granted, CMU's defense isn't anything great but its much better than it was back in Sept and early October. Ford Field sits about 63,000 and I would guess at least 75 percent of those will be Chips fans. Its not like they need to travel far. Most are down this way for the Holidays anyway. I think it will be an electric atmosphere. I would almost consider it a home game. So, thats like getting 11 points.

This line has ben wacky though. Opened at 4, got crushed to 10, back to 7 and now back to 8. I waited so long for a 10 to pop up when it was 9...then it went to 7..patience, got the 8. I wouldn't be suprised if they won it on the field.
Click to expand...

I wouldn't be surprised by any outcome in this game.

Here's how I kinda see the matchup: Purdue beat a not very good CMU team early in the season by about 20 points. At the time, CMU was playing poorly and losing to a number of "poor" teams, including ND State (who later also beat Minny). At the same time, Purdue was beating up on its' annual weak non-conference schedule (made all the more weak by ND's poor year) and was living up to its' preseason billing as a dark horse Big 10 Champion team.

After the matchup, CMU has improved, lost a late game but won the MAC championship again. Purdue has faded and lost its' last 4 games. If you believe Tiller, one of the reason is due to an injured throwing shoulder from their QB.

No doubt, the motivation is more on CMU's side. Coaching maybe too. But from a talent standpoint, Purdue is superior.

OK, so if they beat CMU by 20 or so at home early when they were motivated, do they lose SU? I doubt it. I think they win 7 or 8 times out of 10. However, if they win, will they cover the number? Maybe. I think the line may be close as a 3-11 point Purdue win is the most likely outcome in my mind.

If the line was 10 or so, I would be all over CMU. Purdue at 7 or less though looks like the value to me.

Tell me where I'm wrong.
 
I understand every point your trying to say. In Bowl games..some teams want to be here...others don't. Thats a big factor. Having basically a home crowd is a BIG factor. Having revenge is a MEDIUM factor. If Tiller has somehow got all his kids minds set on playing this game to win thats huge IMO. I know grumblings about Tiller are getting louder and louder. We'll see. Bowl games are not won on talent alone. So much goes into motivation and care.
 
BTW, I'm hoping TCU comes back to 4 or less before gametime. I was so pissed today to see the line jump to 4'.

Kentucky is interesting at 6. If FSU is anywhere near motivated, I think they cover that number. But what motivation will they have? Talk about a horrible end to the year and nothing positive as much of the same guys won't be able to play the first 2-3 games next year.
 
RJ Esq said:
BTW, I'm hoping TCU comes back to 4 or less before gametime. I was so pissed today to see the line jump to 4'.

Kentucky is interesting at 6. If FSU is anywhere near motivated, I think they cover that number. But what motivation will they have? Talk about a horrible end to the year and nothing positive as much of the same guys won't be able to play the first 2-3 games next year.
Click to expand...
I was leaning this way before any bullshit went down. I am suprised number wasn't adjusted even more. I really like the fact that this is a showcase game for Woodson. FSU defense showed me enough holes late in the year that I think UK can exploit them. Too much going on for FSU right now. This could get ugly but I didn't want to go too big betteing against injuries/suspensions at that number.
 
B.A.R. said:
I understand every point your trying to say. In Bowl games..some teams want to be here...others don't. Thats a big factor. Having basically a home crowd is a BIG factor. Having revenge is a MEDIUM factor. If Tiller has somehow got all his kids minds set on playing this game to win thats huge IMO. I know grumblings about Tiller are getting louder and louder. We'll see. Bowl games are not won on talent alone. So much goes into motivation and care.
Click to expand...

I agree with everything you're saying as well. CMU will have a nice home crowd in a largely empty Ford Field. Tiller will be playing for his job, but then again, who the fuck wants to be in Detroit? ;)

I don't buy into the revenge thing so much as CMU has to overcome alot via motivation to get within the number.

Is there an easier way to play this game other than the side? Total? I don't know about the over and wouldn't play the under. Team totals? Purdue over 38' seems interesting. Not sure if CMU can put up over 32' in this game.

I think Purdue scores somewhere between 35-45 in this one.
 
BIG AL hope your Christmas was good.

Just a question, on Central Michigan I have a question? If you like them to win why not possibly take the Purdue team total under 38.5, certainly if they go over this total I don't know if Central Mich can cover?

My thoughts on the game are as follows:
If the game is basically a home game for Cent MICH that is a big factor because it would be then a -7.5 ROAD favorite.
-Motivation is key but here is how I view it. In the first matchup at Purdue, I don't think Purdue was going into that game saying ok lets win 21-20, or 31-27 or 38-35, they were motivated to crush them, they went into that game with a blowout in mind.
-Now in this game due to being on the road and lack of passion and motivation PURDUE's mental mindset would not be to blow them out, but it would be to escape with the win. There is just no way they would be attempting a road blowout in this situation when they reallly aren't even into the game? Blowouts happen when a team is very focussed, which explains why USC has always gotten bowl blowouts, explains NEW Mexico this year who wanted to end the losing streak. It comes down to who wants it more. So in a game where a team wants it less and is favored by 7.5 on the road??? This reminds me of a typical Texas Longhorn game where they are favored and don't seem to really care about the game

-People will take Purdue on TALENT alone refusing to factor in what you and me know, but I have done that before and swear it seems that I lose about 99 out of 100 times.
- I think by taking the points you are putting the probability in your corner and it should hit, and that is all we can ask for, the edge, like a stock tip that is supposed to rise and does? What are your thoughts?

Looking at previous games it is for sure that if you do not play 4 quarters you do not cover either, and I dont think PURDUE will play 4 quartes, they may play 2 or 1 good quarter, but there is no way they are focussed to play 4 quarters.
 
Sammy Meatballs said:
BIG AL hope your Christmas was good.

Just a question, on Central Michigan I have a question? If you like them to win why not possibly take the Purdue team total under 38.5, certainly if they go over this total I don't know if Central Mich can cover?

My thoughts on the game are as follows:
If the game is basically a home game for Cent MICH that is a big factor because it would be then a -7.5 ROAD favorite.
-Motivation is key but here is how I view it. In the first matchup at Purdue, I don't think Purdue was going into that game saying ok lets win 21-20, or 31-27 or 38-35, they were motivated to crush them, they went into that game with a blowout in mind.
-Now in this game due to being on the road and lack of passion and motivation PURDUE's mental mindset would not be to blow them out, but it would be to escape with the win. There is just no way they would be attempting a road blowout in this situation when they reallly aren't even into the game? Blowouts happen when a team is very focussed, which explains why USC has always gotten bowl blowouts, explains NEW Mexico this year who wanted to end the losing streak. It comes down to who wants it more. So in a game where a team wants it less and is favored by 7.5 on the road??? This reminds me of a typical Texas Longhorn game where they are favored and don't seem to really care about the game

-People will take Purdue on TALENT alone refusing to factor in what you and me know, but I have done that before and swear it seems that I lose about 99 out of 100 times.
- I think by taking the points you are putting the probability in your corner and it should hit, and that is all we can ask for, the edge, like a stock tip that is supposed to rise and does? What are your thoughts?

Looking at previous games it is for sure that if you do not play 4 quarters you do not cover either, and I dont think PURDUE will play 4 quartes, they may play 2 or 1 good quarter, but there is no way they are focussed to play 4 quarters.
Click to expand...

Hope you had a great Holiday too. I ate way too much and can barely walk now..heh

You just made excellent points that need to be factored in no doubt. If Purdue comes out and plays 4 great qtrs of football..then they deserv to win and cover. I just cannot see that happening. Football, and bowl games is about much much more than talent. The intangibles. LeFavour was only the second QB to go for 3000-1000. The other was a Mr. Vincent Young. Remember that Kelly left and in comes the new HC. He too had a similar offense but with some differentr tweaks. Its obviously been showing as season progressed. Dan ran 10 for 21 in that game. Those numbers will increase big time in this contest.
 
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