Best Playoffs in Sports are upon us Discusssion

[gsro]

not that it means anything, but Liquidnoose was not happy the Sharks got the Ducks. he was sending me texts after a few makers, and mr shark himself is definitely worried...fwiw.

think i'll make the most of it (his fear of the ducks, come playoff time) once the series gets going.

where is noose, miss the guy

 

[gsro]

this is going to be an entertaining playoffs alot of series going the distance

locked the rags when it first came out @ +250 ish, just a value play, and have to agree when they are on, they can be deadly, give the rags goaltending edge, physicality is a sligth edge to the rags, but since the arrival of avery they've seemed to be more comfortable and pesky...

Brodeur for the series: hot carolina team coming in facing brodeur, brodeur has had alot of rest, and it was discussed in a thread abotu how the flames run a couple of years back was because kipper had rest from an injury, well look at we have here

Boston/Mtl: no side here but for some odd reason i think this goes 7 and not a quick series as people think it may be, Lucic needs to be a little mroe disciplined that's for sure, you just can't go chase a player from behind and essentially grab his face and throw him down, stupid penalties will get you bad results

Philly/Pens: dont' get me started on the flyers, they had a chance at home ice, which is crucial for this series, and blew a 3-2 lead..another team with soft goaltending, pitts one of the hotter teams coming into the playoffs..

So that means so far I have:
Rags
Pens
Devils

been busy so i'll be aroud more to discuss

 

[guaranteeed]

I think Boston is a little overvalued, I don't see them getting past the 2nd round.

And it wouldn't absolutely shock me if Montreal beat them.

 

[Joe Public]

Kris Draper is out for the first two games of the Wings' series.

 

[tazz]

bar asked but i did not see an answer...

if lets say a 8 seed beats a 1 seed in the first round, does the 8 seed play the highest seed left (as in the nba) or is the bracket predetermined (as in ncaa march madness)?...i believe they reseed

i would like to know this for my playoff hockey pools and basically capping the nhl playoffs as a whole...thanks

 

[BetCrimes1984]

8 seed plays the highest seed left

 

[Joe Public]

Yeah, they re-seed after each round.

 

[tazz]

thx betcrimes and joepublic

 

[Santacapper]

lol, I answered... but I linked to 'Yessirs' profile...

sorry Tazz... good to see you around man

 

[tigercub]

nice post of negreanu's picks. i think i am opposite all of his picks. the one team i like is van, and wanted to take them to win the west, but drawing st. louis in the first round is dangerous. i think columbus would've been a nice 5 game series for the nucks, but really unsure with this one.

a little credibility lost when saying boston just aint that good. not that good? when you are no. 2 in nhl in scoring and no. 1 in goals against, have a probable vezina winner in net, a probable norris winner defenseman, and can thow out a 3rd line of recchi-bergeron-kobasew i think your pretty good. montreal HAS underacheived all year, but what makes you think it'll change? gainey took the helm after firing carboneau, but that hasnt change anything. they're still not playing well. while everyone started panicking when boston took a slide in march, the b's i believe closed out the season like 10-2. i do believe that boston will make quick work of montreal this series. huge rivalry, i know, but its just that boston is much deeper at all positions and will physically dominate this series. im sure the refs in montreal will give the habs a game, but i see boston taking this one before game 6. and if they ever lost this series, well.......

the more i look into the jersey/canes series, i tend to lean towards carolina. i do think ward will outplay broduer this series. marty looked awful last year in the rangers series, and has stretches since returning from injury where he has looked bad. jersey does have more fire power up front this year, but cam ward has played unreal late in the season. carolina should be able to win all their home games, and if they steal one of the first two i think this series is over.

alot of talk about the san jose/anaheim series and with good reason. the sharks draw a very tough matchup with the ducks. anaheim struggles to stay out of the box, and the sharks will make them pay at home. san jose can match up physically with anaheim so that should neutralize their biggest threat. ill take nabby in net over a hiller/giggy combo as well. there are some that are picking the ducks to win this, and i think san jose is feeling a little disrespected. this will be the year when they are picked to be knocked out early and they actually make a deep run. i think the sharks prevail here, but obviously wouldnt be shocked with the 8 seed moving on.

 

[Gandolf]

I don't get the point of taking "value" when picking a series winner. To me value means you're probably taking the loser, but over the long haul enough of those value picks win so that you'll come out ahead. That's fine in baseball with over 2000 games to pull value from, but you don't get that many plays in series picks. If you're not confident of the win, there's no value.

 

[Santacapper]

I don't get the point of taking "value" when picking a series winner. To me value means you're probably taking the loser, but over the long haul enough of those value picks win so that you'll come out ahead. That's fine in baseball with over 2000 games to pull value from, but you don't get that many plays in series picks. If you're not confident of the win, there's no value.

for me it comes in sitting on a much better price late in the series when the price is off.

Say for example Columbus, Id much rather have +428 in a decising game rather than whatever the side line is... thats value IMO.

If I think the series goes deep, which I do when I play a dog for a series, thats what Im going to play :cheers:

 

[Satyr]

I don't get the point of taking "value" when picking a series winner. To me value means you're probably taking the loser, but over the long haul enough of those value picks win so that you'll come out ahead. That's fine in baseball with over 2000 games to pull value from, but you don't get that many plays in series picks. If you're not confident of the win, there's no value.

Every time you estimate a game differently (considering you are educated enough to make such calls) to what the linesmakers have and the discrepancy between the estimations is big enough, the bet is worth it.

What's "confident" to you? The line says Anaheim has 28% of going through, so SJ has 72%.

If I think the numbers are actually 60-40 in favor of SJ, that warrants a Ducks play.

I'm still betting against who I think goes through but I'm betting on the 12% estimation discrepancy so it makes perfect sense.

Let me put it this way. There is no way I would make Anaheim FAVORED for this series unless Nabokov and 3 top skaters are out for SJ and that's not happening, so does that mean I shouldn't take Anaheim even at let's say, +500?

To me it's all about the discrepancies.

 

[Gandolf]

Let me put it this way. There is no way I would make Anaheim FAVORED for this series unless Nabokov and 3 top skaters are out for SJ and that's not happening, so does that mean I shouldn't take Anaheim even at let's say, +500?

Yes, IMO it does. I guess I view series plays different than daily plays. With a series play I'm going to play more units to compensate for the time factor. So I don't see it as a standard "in the long run you'll collect your value" play. Instead of playing the strong value I'm looking to get the winner right plus value. So in the case above I'd be looking for a reason to play San Jose or I'd play nothing. In the first round I'm playing one dog (Carolina) and two of the shorter favorites (Pittsburgh and Chicago) that I see as value AND I'm confident will win. :shake:

 

[Santacapper]

updatd prices

<TABLE onmouseover="changeto(event, '#E6E6E6')" style="WIDTH: 100%" onmouseout="changeback(event, '#E6E6E6')" border=0><TBODY><TR class=Column_Date_Headers_Odds id=ctl00_MCPH_CL_ignore_1><TD colSpan=3>NHL Series Prices (Best of Seven)

</TD></TR><TR class=Column_Headers_Odds id=ctl00_MCPH_CL_ignore_2><TD style="WIDTH: 25%">Fri 4/17</TD><TD colSpan=2>Philadelphia Flyers vs Pittsburgh Penguins</TD></TR><TR class=AlternatingData1><TD>04:05 PM</TD><TD style="WIDTH: 53%">103 Philadelphia Flyers</TD><TD style="WIDTH: 22%">+264</TD></TR><TR class=AlternatingData1><TD> </TD><TD>104 Pittsburgh Penguins</TD><TD>-284</TD></TR><TR class=Column_Headers_Odds id=ctl00_MCPH_CL_ignore_3><TD style="WIDTH: 25%">Fri 4/17</TD><TD colSpan=2>Carolina Hurricanes vs New Jersey Devils</TD></TR><TR class=AlternatingData1><TD>04:35 PM</TD><TD style="WIDTH: 53%">105 Carolina Hurricanes</TD><TD style="WIDTH: 22%">+207</TD></TR><TR class=AlternatingData1><TD> </TD><TD>106 New Jersey Devils</TD><TD>-227</TD></TR><TR class=Column_Headers_Odds id=ctl00_MCPH_CL_ignore_4><TD style="WIDTH: 25%">Fri 4/17</TD><TD colSpan=2>St. Louis Blues vs Vancouver Canucks</TD></TR><TR class=AlternatingData1><TD>07:05 PM</TD><TD style="WIDTH: 53%">107 St. Louis Blues</TD><TD style="WIDTH: 22%">+325</TD></TR><TR class=AlternatingData1><TD> </TD><TD>108 Vancouver Canucks</TD><TD>-355</TD></TR><TR class=Column_Headers_Odds id=ctl00_MCPH_CL_ignore_5><TD style="WIDTH: 25%">Sat 4/18</TD><TD colSpan=2>New York Rangers vs Washington Capitals</TD></TR><TR class=AlternatingData1><TD>10:05 AM</TD><TD style="WIDTH: 53%">101 New York Rangers</TD><TD style="WIDTH: 22%">-110</TD></TR><TR class=AlternatingData1><TD> </TD><TD>102 Washington Capitals</TD><TD>+100</TD></TR><TR class=Column_Headers_Odds id=ctl00_MCPH_CL_ignore_6><TD style="WIDTH: 25%">Sat 4/18</TD><TD colSpan=2>Montreal Canadiens vs Boston Bruins</TD></TR><TR class=AlternatingData1><TD>05:05 PM</TD><TD style="WIDTH: 53%">109 Montreal Canadiens</TD><TD style="WIDTH: 22%">+540</TD></TR><TR class=AlternatingData1><TD> </TD><TD>110 Boston Bruins</TD><TD>-600</TD></TR><TR class=Column_Headers_Odds id=ctl00_MCPH_CL_ignore_7><TD style="WIDTH: 25%">Sat 4/18</TD><TD colSpan=2>Columbus Blue Jackets vs Detroit Red Wings</TD></TR><TR class=AlternatingData1><TD>03:05 PM</TD><TD style="WIDTH: 53%">111 Columbus Blue Jackets</TD><TD style="WIDTH: 22%">+680</TD></TR><TR class=AlternatingData1><TD> </TD><TD>112 Detroit Red Wings</TD><TD>-750</TD></TR><TR class=Column_Headers_Odds id=ctl00_MCPH_CL_ignore_8><TD style="WIDTH: 25%">Sat 4/18</TD><TD colSpan=2>Calgary Flames vs Chicago Blackhawks</TD></TR><TR class=AlternatingData1><TD>06:05 PM</TD><TD style="WIDTH: 53%">113 Calgary Flames</TD><TD style="WIDTH: 22%">+200</TD></TR><TR class=AlternatingData1><TD> </TD><TD>114 Chicago Blackhawks</TD><TD>-220</TD></TR><TR class=Column_Headers_Odds id=ctl00_MCPH_CL_ignore_9><TD style="WIDTH: 25%">Sun 4/19</TD><TD colSpan=2>Anaheim Ducks vs San Jose Sharks</TD></TR><TR class=AlternatingData1><TD>07:05 PM</TD><TD style="WIDTH: 53%">115 Anaheim Ducks</TD><TD style="WIDTH: 22%">+120</TD></TR><TR class=AlternatingData1><TD> </TD><TD>116 San Jose Sharks</TD><TD>-130</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>






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[Santacapper]

thinking of playing the Flames... I mean, IMO they outplayed the Hawks, and save for a cheapshot they played disciplined...

its 1 game and a 70 cent move from the opener?

 

[tigercub]

yah i'd like to see the flames pull that series out, but i dont know if i could put money on it. and i agree, from the play i watched calgary was controlling the play and had the better chances. i think vancouver wins this series, but i still believe st. louis will be heard from this series. the price is pretty good too with the blues, and i'd be shocked if it didnt go at least 6.

 

[Joe Public]

I can't bet on Keenan for a whole series. The point was made last night that you could blame the loss on him, and though I think that's a bit harsh, we all know that guy can cost you a game at any moment.

-130 on the Sharks, though, that's tough to pass up. Because if they win Game Two--and they should--that number's going to fly back the other way and the Ducks will still have home ice.

 

[Joe Public]

Oh, and yes, I realize I'm the one who said it's tough to see how Anaheim doesn't get killed in the first round only to see them up 1-0.

But I stand by that statement. Although, 4-2 would hardly be a killing. I still think the Sharks can find their ass and get it together.

 

[Santacapper]

good point about Keenan, my thinking is though, that its a huge swing for 1 game, when I didnt see it warranted. I mean, Detroit yeah, Boston yeah, jack that puppy up.

But you just need to win one road game to get home ice and hold your own. CGY at home in the playoffs is something else and a young / playoff green Chicago team will take a bit to get used to that and I honestly dont know if they can take one in CGY in the playoffs. Kiprusoff played well, and you could say he got knocked over in the winning goal.

think 2:1 when a split is still very possible is good stuff

 

[tigercub]

Oh, and yes, I realize I'm the one who said it's tough to see how Anaheim doesn't get killed in the first round only to see them up 1-0.

But I stand by that statement. Although, 4-2 would hardly be a killing. I still think the Sharks can find their ass and get it together.

ya jp, i think we all knew they dangers that anaheim could present to san jose. but i could still see san jose running off 4 straight or something. they just didnt look ready to play last night, and the pp was dreadful. credit to the ducks for playing that type of game. anaheim is better on the road anyways, but san jose better get their act together for game 2. nothing riding on this series personally, but am huge fans of JR and JOEY T. would love for them to get a cup, if boston cant come through.