Belmont Stakes 2016

Play2win said:
I've been to Monmouth a few times, very nice track and great atmosphere however I only bet their races on Haskell Day or a few of the other big days there. I know Lloyd and Da Raiders pay attention to Monmouth racing so maybe they can assist you but Monmouth always used to be known as a track that favored early speed types.
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Haven't paid as much attention to Monmouth the past couple of years as thequality of racing has certainky declined, but Play hit the nail on thehead, very speed favoring track, plays very similar to Gulfstream, want to look for horses who are going to be on or close to the lead. Any weekend day I'm not out at Belmont or Saratoga I'll meet anyone there to hang and have acouple of beers and bet some races.
 
Play2win said:
Sucks because I attended two of the last three Belmont's and had intentions of going this year especially since a TC isn't on the line but have to work main gig. Hope you have a nice day and make some money as well. I'll definitely catch you at the Spa even though I have a hectic summer ahead.
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Got here for the last couple of races but didn't have time to cap today's card due to having a busy work week that I tried to shorten as best I could, but it was notcrowded at all. Really looking forward to tomorrow's card though. Definetely see you at the Spa this meet. :cheers3:
 
Play2win said:
Belmont Day card is impossible, if I didn't have to work I would be there...get out at 3pm ET and will be around to post thoughts and plays. Also should be around from 12 to 1...here we go

R1 from a betting stand point no interest...#2 should win if not 2nd most likely winner is probably #5

R2 not a big fan of layoff horses going 1 mile 1/16 and #3 has never run that distance on dirt but at 10-1 in the morning line appears to be the main/controlling speed and 1 1/16 on dirt is only a one turn race at Big Sandy.
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Agree with both points, familar a little with #3 in Race 2 from his last turf attempt where hejust raninto a superior horse, return to dirt has been to his liking, also give a bit of a nod to #5 even though I usually try to play against runners trying winners forthe first time, shouldbe able to get a great stalking trip off of #3
 
Play2win said:
R2: #6 will likely be favorite but has to stretch in distance and last out win was on off track and now faces winners for 1st time.
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Took a step forward last time out for the new barn, think 6F might be a little short for him. #8 for his old conditioner is worth a look, 2nd off a layoff, training well and capable, they don't run #3 on the turf often but he does seem to have an affinity for it. I'll be stopping by the Mott barn early tomorrow if I hear any good info will pass it on.
 
Race 9 I'm a big fan of #4, might have peaked going longer 3rd off the layoff in last, but solid work since that indicates he just might maintain fitness, should be able to get a nice trip off the early leaders. #3 with some weIrd travel CT to Pimlico for a work than back home to Cali last week to ship cross country again. Will try beat #5 off the Dubai trip and think he is a 2 turn horse. Will also be using #8 and #11
 
Race 10 #10 is a world class horse but price is going to be very short, will also use #6 and then #2 and #3 at good prices, will be against #5, who I guess hasa chance to improve sedond offthe bench but had usually run better fresh off a layoff than he showed in last, age might be catching up to this fella at 8
 
Race 11 You'll hear comparisons of #1 to Tonalist, but think the latter is a far better horse. #2 will be my top pick almost by default, ran pretty good in Derby off the planned 8 week layoff, should be able to get a great set up in the second tier while saving ground along the rail, only 5 weeks between races this time and should be fresh and ready. #3 got a great set up to finish 2nd in the Preakness, which I don't think he gets here, also tough for deep closers to have a late powerful kick in 12F races. #4 is another who has been dropping back and making one late run but has shown a more stalking style earlier and Mike Smith knows how to win races like this, think he's near the top ones at the finish. #6 is a rabbit and think he'll faded after the first mile. #10 is a horse I have come to respect, if he can breakmout of the gate at all think he will be a factor, big if though. #11 is obviously the horse to beat and while he can run over a dry course connections would like to see the rain come in timefor this one, I'll have to try to beat due to tne price but if track is wet don't see him not finishing in top 2.
 
Thanks to both, looking for early speed.

Any general comments in regards to different tracks/surfaces, and what to look for, or what do you look for in a horse/past events? (sorry if that's to vague or difficult lol)
 
Great stuff guys, my thoughts on the stakes:

Race 3 - #4 will control and try to wire, #5 will try to run her down, both are must use. #2 scratched out of Friday to run today and is dangerous on the stretch out. #6 ran well last but is a half-step below 4 and 5.

Race 4 - Murky pace, #2 has a chance to lead them on a merry-go-round chase. #5 and #7 are obvious choices who should relish distance. Have to burn some $ on #3 again at the 15/1 price.

Race 5 - Of the Pletcher's will run with #5, but#6 and #7 should both sit good trips and be right in the mix late. Great race for 7 horse field.

Race 6 - Hoping for enough pace for the #2, #7 and #8 to run on late. #9 and #11 underneath.

Race 7 - Real head scratcher, glad its not in any Pick 4s. Scratch of #12 takes a little of the pace out, but should still be enough for stalkers. Hard to get past #8 who has the only speed number above par in the field, although it wasn't at this distance, but you also get Pletcher/Johnny V at 20/1. #1 and #6 have form and are turning back.

Race 8 - Ridiculously wide open, seeing no less than seven with a good shot. 1,2,7,8,9,10,12, take your pick.

Race 9 - Also wide open, going to run with the proven class of #4, #5 and #11, along with #2 and #7 making their Grade 1 debuts.

Race 10 - Flintshire or bust, spreading elsewhere requires leaning on this one with the class edge.

Belmont Stakes - Can't leave Exaggerator #11 out of tickets. Best chances to score the upset look like the Pletcher horses #2 and #5 and Mike Smith on #4. Will make at least one trifecta bet with the two Roman's horses in the show spot.

Best of luck everyone!
 
Belmont trifecta

<tbody>
[TD="align: left"]Jun-11 BEL R11 TRI 4/2,3,5,10,11,12,13/2,3,5,10,11,12,13

[/TD]

</tbody>
 
Very upset I didn't play that horse. Best at his age imo right now other than the stud
 
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