Belmont 2020
- Thread starter HUNT
- Start date
CPA-hole
Good night, Duke, and sweet dreams!
Lot of horses in here with similar stalking styles. Figured Tap it to Win needs to ship from the rail. Modernist had the 14 hole in the Louisiana Derby. Should have a much better trip here, probably in front at the top of the stretch.
Think I'll stick with Tiz the Law and Pneumatic here in an exacta box and use both of them in pick 3s and 4s. Pneumatic gets of the rail and doesnt need to gun to the front today. Should get a nice trip. Think he's primed for a big one. Just may not be good enough to beat Tiz the Law.
Think I'll stick with Tiz the Law and Pneumatic here in an exacta box and use both of them in pick 3s and 4s. Pneumatic gets of the rail and doesnt need to gun to the front today. Should get a nice trip. Think he's primed for a big one. Just may not be good enough to beat Tiz the Law.
Good stuff
CPA-hole
Good night, Duke, and sweet dreams!
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Gandolf
Leader of the Van Buren Boys
Big Red could probably beat a few of these even while dead. This is a disappointing group with Baffert's collection falling apart. Only 4 of the top 30 Derby point getters are here.
1 - Tap It To Win - love the connections, love the Belmont win at 8 1/2 furlongs, love that his 2 races basically paired up speed wise and that this is his third off the layoff. Has not gone against much this year, will be near the front heading around the turn. Need to use in exotics for sure, B level win candidate.
2 - Sole Volante - has a very nice closing kick, won last at a one turn mile so the one turn 9 furlongs shouldn't be a problem. Has Derby credentials from his Tampa races, running 2nd off layoff here. Luca Panici comes up from Florida, this would typically be a negative but his horse is 3-0-1 in 4 races with Luca so that familiarity balances it out. Needs a pace to close into and the theory with this race is the long 5 furlong opening straightaway should result in a quicker than normal pace. He's an A level win choice in my mind.
3 - Max Player - The Withers winner comes out of the ice cold barn of Linda Rice after a 4 month layoff, not an ideal setup. Positives are he's still learning, has improved in each race so far and could bump forward again off the layoff. He also gets a good rider in Rosario and has a 9 furlong win already. I have him as a C but will use liberally in exotics.
4 - Modernist - Another with Derby qualifications, won the 9 furlong Risen Star and ran OK in the Louisiana Derby. Bit of a question mark as to how strong those two races were though, as early returns are not promising. Junior Alvarado is annually the most underrated rider in racing, almost every year he has a positive ROI and its even better when pared with Mott. Some sharp works recently imply he's ready, does he move forward enough? Probably not but 3rd or 4th not out of the question.
5 - Farmington Road - The supposed lesser of Pletcher's two, but gets his go to guy in Castellano. Has burned money on a few occasions and is 0 for 3 at the distance. Don't think he's good enough to win but if the pace is hot enough he could clunk up into the money.
6 - Fore Left - Ships in from Dubai by way of California for the Doug O'Neil barn and Reddam Racing, who likes to have runners in the big races. Has tried a little of everything: Dubai, west coast, east coast, sprints, two turn routes, one turn routes, turf, all-weather, front wraps, blinkers....seems like they've been searching for his best style. The Dubai win was visually impressive for 7 furlongs but he was starting to wither in that 8th, now he'll need to go 9. I think the pace will do him in.
7 - Jungle Runner - no idea why he's in this, he's about 25 lengths worse than the favorite. Might just be a stall companion for Assmussen's other horse.
8 - Tizz the Law - heavy favorite, Derby points leader, winner of the Florida Derby, Holy Bull and the Champagne. No questions about distance, class or speed. Only questions are how he might do with a hot pace, is Barclay Tagg ready for his first classic win since 2003, and is Manny Franco ready to move past the former president of Paraguay and the Wisconsin power ball winner as the most famous Manuel Franco? Is a A level candidate but I'm not willing to say he's a single.
9 - Dr Post - Maybe Irad Ortiz is Pletcher's go to guy now as he's certainly on the better horse. That 104 Bris speed rating he ran at 7 furlongs sticks out and rivals Tiz the Law. They say 7 furlongs is a good indicator of 9 furlong success, but that may be for two turn routes I don't know. Nonetheless he followed that strong win with an 8 1/2 furlong stakes win. His loss at Belmont is tempered by his bobbling start and the fact that he lost to Green Light Go and Another Miracle who both have run well since. B level win candidate.
10 - Pneumatic - Cold in the advance wagering, finished 3rd in the Matt Winn. Still improving, needs to quicken to match the numbers put up by 1,2,8 and 9. Santana comes from Churchill to ride, and he's been very good this year. I have him as a C.
A - 2,8
B - 1,9
C - 3,10
Exotics - 4,5
Toss - 6,7
1 - Tap It To Win - love the connections, love the Belmont win at 8 1/2 furlongs, love that his 2 races basically paired up speed wise and that this is his third off the layoff. Has not gone against much this year, will be near the front heading around the turn. Need to use in exotics for sure, B level win candidate.
2 - Sole Volante - has a very nice closing kick, won last at a one turn mile so the one turn 9 furlongs shouldn't be a problem. Has Derby credentials from his Tampa races, running 2nd off layoff here. Luca Panici comes up from Florida, this would typically be a negative but his horse is 3-0-1 in 4 races with Luca so that familiarity balances it out. Needs a pace to close into and the theory with this race is the long 5 furlong opening straightaway should result in a quicker than normal pace. He's an A level win choice in my mind.
3 - Max Player - The Withers winner comes out of the ice cold barn of Linda Rice after a 4 month layoff, not an ideal setup. Positives are he's still learning, has improved in each race so far and could bump forward again off the layoff. He also gets a good rider in Rosario and has a 9 furlong win already. I have him as a C but will use liberally in exotics.
4 - Modernist - Another with Derby qualifications, won the 9 furlong Risen Star and ran OK in the Louisiana Derby. Bit of a question mark as to how strong those two races were though, as early returns are not promising. Junior Alvarado is annually the most underrated rider in racing, almost every year he has a positive ROI and its even better when pared with Mott. Some sharp works recently imply he's ready, does he move forward enough? Probably not but 3rd or 4th not out of the question.
5 - Farmington Road - The supposed lesser of Pletcher's two, but gets his go to guy in Castellano. Has burned money on a few occasions and is 0 for 3 at the distance. Don't think he's good enough to win but if the pace is hot enough he could clunk up into the money.
6 - Fore Left - Ships in from Dubai by way of California for the Doug O'Neil barn and Reddam Racing, who likes to have runners in the big races. Has tried a little of everything: Dubai, west coast, east coast, sprints, two turn routes, one turn routes, turf, all-weather, front wraps, blinkers....seems like they've been searching for his best style. The Dubai win was visually impressive for 7 furlongs but he was starting to wither in that 8th, now he'll need to go 9. I think the pace will do him in.
7 - Jungle Runner - no idea why he's in this, he's about 25 lengths worse than the favorite. Might just be a stall companion for Assmussen's other horse.
8 - Tizz the Law - heavy favorite, Derby points leader, winner of the Florida Derby, Holy Bull and the Champagne. No questions about distance, class or speed. Only questions are how he might do with a hot pace, is Barclay Tagg ready for his first classic win since 2003, and is Manny Franco ready to move past the former president of Paraguay and the Wisconsin power ball winner as the most famous Manuel Franco? Is a A level candidate but I'm not willing to say he's a single.
9 - Dr Post - Maybe Irad Ortiz is Pletcher's go to guy now as he's certainly on the better horse. That 104 Bris speed rating he ran at 7 furlongs sticks out and rivals Tiz the Law. They say 7 furlongs is a good indicator of 9 furlong success, but that may be for two turn routes I don't know. Nonetheless he followed that strong win with an 8 1/2 furlong stakes win. His loss at Belmont is tempered by his bobbling start and the fact that he lost to Green Light Go and Another Miracle who both have run well since. B level win candidate.
10 - Pneumatic - Cold in the advance wagering, finished 3rd in the Matt Winn. Still improving, needs to quicken to match the numbers put up by 1,2,8 and 9. Santana comes from Churchill to ride, and he's been very good this year. I have him as a C.
A - 2,8
B - 1,9
C - 3,10
Exotics - 4,5
Toss - 6,7
CPA-hole
Good night, Duke, and sweet dreams!
No kidding. I guess being a 4yo firster they didnt think anyone would reach in for him.
Gandolf
Leader of the Van Buren Boys
Yep, nobody did.
L8kersFan74
Pretty much a regular
Closing track odds predictions for Tiz The Law?
Wait on closing odds OR lock in -130 right now?
Wait on closing odds OR lock in -130 right now?
Last edited:
guaranteeed
Pretty much a regular
Its -150 at some places online now
L8kersFan74
Pretty much a regular
So whatta you think closing track odds wind up at, Teeeeeeed?
Gandolf
Leader of the Van Buren Boys
Race 6 they have another. #5 Selflessly
guaranteeed
Pretty much a regular
Just from doing some reading and looking around twitter
I think it settles between 140-150 if I had 130 I'd take now
I'm gonna be on him and a sprinkle on the 1 and 2, plus some exotics, after reading @Gandolf break it down above
L8kersFan74
Pretty much a regular
Teeeeed..... Thanks for the input, but, I'm asking about closing track odds vs sportsbook odds (locked in price, -130 available now).
Basically, is it better to take -130 (locked in price) to win OR take the chances on track odds? If track odds get worse than 4/5 (ex: 3/5, 1/2, 2/5 closing track odds) then locking in -130 is the better bet. If the thinking is it gets no worse than 1/1, 6/5 or so, then simply betting with track odds gives the better price.
Basically, is it better to take -130 (locked in price) to win OR take the chances on track odds? If track odds get worse than 4/5 (ex: 3/5, 1/2, 2/5 closing track odds) then locking in -130 is the better bet. If the thinking is it gets no worse than 1/1, 6/5 or so, then simply betting with track odds gives the better price.
guaranteeed
Pretty much a regular
Oh my bad mate, thought it was just closing
CPA-hole
Good night, Duke, and sweet dreams!
Yep. No excuses today. That was it for him. Also keep an eye on Kanthaka. That was a giant race from him. He's definitely one to keep an eye on going forward.
Gandolf
Leader of the Van Buren Boys
Yeah its playing super fast. No wonder Sole Volante is rising is price. Nobody's making up 3-4 lengths in the stretch.
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
LMAO
Damn 9 Dr Post
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