Been awhile...What have you learned after 12 weeks of the NFL season?

I'm embarrassed for Coach Fisher. How can anyone be in the same position for 22 years and be this bad? Sean Payton molly slapped his team up and down the field. My opinion is Fisher has lost this team. Gurley isn't running hard. Greg Robinson the 2nd overall pick didn't suit up because he needed a mental break? Goff has already told their OC he doesn't like certain concepts. They're a mess
 
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NFC figures to have some high scoring playoff games, as all the division winners that will host games should be either dome teams or in decent weather

Dallas - dome
Minny/Det - dome
Atl/Tampa - dome and FLA
Seattle - ok weather typically

AFC is more iffy
New England - winter mix
Pitt/Balt - winter mix
Houston - dome
Oakland/KC - decent in Oak/winter mix in KC
 
NY Giants have that post-season run look to them again...tough 4 man DL front, Eli and a group of WRs that can make ridiculous catches

Dallas should be getting Church back soon which will help their secondary.
 
I learned barring a serious meltdown, the Raiders will break their 13 year playoff drought. Feels good to finally have a winning product again. Dynamic offense who can lead by Captain Comeback Carr who can trade scores with any team in this league. And despite a sketchy defense, Khalil Mack is a beast. A legit defensive player of the year candidate. The goal is a first round bye. I'm worried about KC though. They're a tough team. They beat us already and we play them again in their house. Raider Nation, let's go!!!

And the refs, WTF. Every time a scoring play happens, I have to hold my breath. They love to let teams losing get the benefit of a PI.

And this league is literally week to week. Seattle takes care of the Pats, than can only muster 3 offensive points vs the lowly Bucs defense. One week a team can look like champs, the next chumps. I think the Pats are the only consistent team in the league. Raiders and Cowboys don't count, teams need to do it multiple years.

And Gary Kubiak. In hindsight it was a bad decision. But to be honest I like him going for the win. Maybe go for it with a play rather than a fg attempt. The NFL just needs to get rid of the tie bullshit, and play to a winner.

Will the Browns win? four games left vs Bengals, Bills, Chargers, and Steelers. They gotta win one right?
 
I feel like maybe with the exception of Dallas, at this time last year every team leading their division was better than every team leading that same division currently. Pats don't look too hot. Houston, Detroit & Baltimore - give me a fucking break, they all suck & will likely be one & done in the playoffs.

Parody should be good for the NFL but to me it just seems like this year we're getting a shitty product.
 
cogenman said:
Will the Browns win? four games left vs Bengals, Bills, Chargers, and Steelers. They gotta win one right?
Click to expand...

This week or against the Chargers are their only shots and they're not very good ones. To paraphrase Chuck Noll - They have problems and they are many.
 
Marlo said:
The chiefs are frauds
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Alex Smith can't win a Super Bowl

and my guess is his ceiling is probably the 2nd round of the playoffs

hes 2nd last in the NFL in throwing downfield, he averages 7 yards a pass I think

I think I saw it took until the 3rd quarter for him to throw a ball past 10 yards last night
 
despite the ridiculous pro-offense rules, there are so many average and bad offenses that a good defense could win you a super bowl. This seems simple to say after it happened last year, but it doesn't seem like a fluke to me.

Good enough defenses:
DEN, KC, SEA

Good enough offenses:
NE, PIT, OAK, DAL, ATL, NO, SEA

SEA is on both of my lists and sustained an embarrassing loss with no further injuries that I saw, so i guess it's time for me to look at some futures
 
Gandolf said:
NY Giants have that post-season run look to them again...tough 4 man DL front, Eli and a group of WRs that can make ridiculous catches

Dallas should be getting Church back soon which will help their secondary.
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To me , the Giants have the look of a team that has played nobody.

Their offense is below average. Footballoutsiders has them at 19 in the passing game and 23 in the run game. Defense is pretty solid, coming in at number 8 according to FO.

I think they are firmly right in the middle of the pack; league average team, average QB.

Their wins are:

NO by 3
Balt by 4
Rams by 7
Phi by 4
Cin by 1
Chi by 6
Cle by 14

Any of those teams above average? Not in my book.

Losses:

Skins @home
@Minny by 14
@GB by 7
 
GWarner27 said:
despite the ridiculous pro-offense rules, there are so many average and bad offenses that a good defense could win you a super bowl. This seems simple to say after it happened last year, but it doesn't seem like a fluke to me.

Good enough defenses:
DEN, KC, SEA

Good enough offenses:
NE, PIT, OAK, DAL, ATL, NO, SEA

SEA is on both of my lists and sustained an embarrassing loss with no further injuries that I saw, so i guess it's time for me to look at some futures
Click to expand...


My opinion is:

Good enough defenses:

Phi
Den
Ari
Bal
Sea
Min

Good enough offenses:

Dal
Atl
NE
Oak
NO
Wash


Philly, Ari, Balt, and Min have terrible offenses. Atl, Oak, Wash have terrible defenses.

Best teams:

Seahawks- are above average on offense
NE -above average on defense
Dal- defense may hold up just enough for offense
Atl- defense may hold up just enough for offense


Outside looking in at this point without significant improvement on at least one side of ball:

Phi- offense
Wash- defense
Oak- defense
Buff- kind of average at both units
Pit- kind of average at both units


I could see a case for any of the top 4 to win the title, but I would have a hard time backing a bad defense with a rookie QB (Dallas)

The next group is interesting.....Philly- not with rookie QB. Wash- they are probably 8-3 or 9-2 with any form of red zone efficiency. Can that be corrected? Oak- interesting case because the defense has all world pass rushers and a good offense. Buff- could make surprising playoff run, imo. Pit- could make playoff push.

I see value in these:

Atlanta 14:1 538 gives them 5% chance of winning, thats low, imo
Bills 77:1
Seattle 5:1
Washington 47:1

Patriots at -105 is batshit crazy, imo


The Bills might get some money out of me. 6-5 now playing @Oak. They could easily win 3-4 games the rest of the way. That puts them 9-10 wins.

@Oak
Pit
Browns
Dolphins
@Jets

However, do they get in? They are 1 behind Miami and Denver and 2 behind KC. 538 gives them a 26% chance of getting in. I believe that to be low, but it has me holding off on future tickets for them. If they were to beat Oak, it would really boost their chances.
 
Logic defying season, numbers that can usually be relied on aren't equating to wins.

Random events and luck are the keys to winning football games in 2016.

Also blame the coaches, 95% of them suck and football is all about coaching more-so than any other sport.

Can't rely on talent like the NBA.

Oh, and the officiating still sucks.
 
Not buying Tampa.
Buying NO
Not buying AFC North
Pats have looked bad since Collins trade.
Washington can ball and could be a threat.
Dolphins will fade.
Seattle will be fine.

Sleep on KC at your own risk. If YPA was indicitave of wins, Brady wouldn't be down near the bottom also.

It's not pretty, but I'd like to know how many teams could go into Oakland and Denver and win without being at full strength on offense and defense for both. Throw Dee Ford , Jaye Howard, Poe, And Nelson in and I doubt it's going to overtime. The test will be this week in Atlanta.

Yes I'm biased but willing to hear rebuttal.
 
Hags will win the SB, their biggest threat in the NFC has no pass rush as do their biggest threats in the AFC.

Congrats Seattle.
 
Capaholic said:
Not buying Tampa.
Buying NO
Not buying AFC North
Pats have looked bad since Collins trade.
Washington can ball and could be a threat.
Dolphins will fade.
Seattle will be fine.

Sleep on KC at your own risk. If YPA was indicitave of wins, Brady wouldn't be down near the bottom also.

It's not pretty, but I'd like to know how many teams could go into Oakland and Denver and win without being at full strength on offense and defense for both. Throw Dee Ford , Jaye Howard, Poe, And Nelson in and I doubt it's going to overtime. The test will be this week in Atlanta.

Yes I'm biased but willing to hear rebuttal.
Click to expand...

I dont believe the offense; nor alex smith is good enough. No weapons at WR and a QB that bails if first read is covered.

Defense...pash rush is legit. But they got destroyed by Trevor Semien.

Just cant buy them. FO has them 20th on offense and 11 on defense.
 
Dollaz said:
To me , the Giants have the look of a team that has played nobody.

Their offense is below average. Footballoutsiders has them at 19 in the passing game and 23 in the run game. Defense is pretty solid, coming in at number 8 according to FO.

I think they are firmly right in the middle of the pack; league average team, average QB.

Their wins are:

NO by 3
Balt by 4
Rams by 7
Phi by 4
Cin by 1
Chi by 6
Cle by 14

Any of those teams above average? Not in my book.

Losses:

Skins @home
@Minny by 14
@GB by 7
Click to expand...

i agree with this, especially after watching them struggle with CLE on Sunday.

It was a spot where many were picking against them, but they weren't doing anything at all until Crowell fumbled at his own 20 and the floodgates opened a bit
 
Dollaz said:
I dont believe the offense; nor alex smith is good enough. No weapons at WR and a QB that bails if first read is covered.

Defense...pash rush is legit. But they got destroyed by Trevor Semien.

Just cant buy them. FO has them 20th on offense and 11 on defense.
Click to expand...

It's not apples and apples, but last year's champ was not exactly an offense to write home about. FO gets my respect but their rankings do not translate to predictive powers in the slightest. Get the premium and check out their ATS record. But 538 has KC as the second best team in the league. So to each metric their own. They may lose the last 5, who knows. I just like the makeup of the team when healthy.

emkee said:
And Andy Reid is the coach.
Click to expand...

I'll take him over about 28 coaches in the league. His winning % is as good as Marty and Hank Stram here in KC. His clock management sucks. His play calling is maddening. But they have been relevant since he set foot in KC.
 
anyone who thinks NE has a good defense hasn't watched them enough

Capaholic said:
Not buying Tampa.
Buying NO
Not buying AFC North
Pats have looked bad since Collins trade.
Washington can ball and could be a threat.
Dolphins will fade.
Seattle will be fine.

Sleep on KC at your own risk. If YPA was indicitave of wins, Brady wouldn't be down near the bottom also.

It's not pretty, but I'd like to know how many teams could go into Oakland and Denver and win without being at full strength on offense and defense for both. Throw Dee Ford , Jaye Howard, Poe, And Nelson in and I doubt it's going to overtime. The test will be this week in Atlanta.

Yes I'm biased but willing to hear rebuttal.
Click to expand...

KC is interesting, but if they don't have a lead early i'm not sure they can get back in games with Smith at QB. He also played so conservatively last night that one bomb gave DEN a lead in a game they should have never sniffed and then a second one made it nearly impossible for them to win. They should have tied the game probably, but while I respect their team I just can't see them winning a four games in the playoffs in a row as I'm not sure they'll win the division nor get a good seed with three tough divisional games left and @ATL this weekend
 
Capaholic said:
It's not apples and apples, but last year's champ was not exactly an offense to write home about. FO gets my respect but their rankings do not translate to predictive powers in the slightest. Get the premium and check out their ATS record. But 538 has KC as the second best team in the league. So to each metric their own. They may lose the last 5, who knows. I just like the makeup of the team when healthy.



I'll take him over about 28 coaches in the league. His winning % is as good as Marty and Hank Stram here in KC. His clock management sucks. His play calling is maddening. But they have been relevant since he set foot in KC.
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But Denvers defense was great lst year. KCs is good but not near that level. And Den at least had multiple play makers on offense. I just dont see it. I mean, I still dont know how they won last night. And I dont think den is very good
 
I think if kc gets fully healthy defensively they are dangerous. Oakland secondary is hot garbage, Mack is the only thing holding that defense afloat. I'll be on the buffalo bills this week su and maybe tt over
 
Alex Smith is not winning a SB and that defense can't be trusted.

All they are is a nice story.
 
Even with yesterday the Raiders defense the last 6 weeks is ranked 10Th in the league so they are improving

And like others have said they have an elite unit at pass rushing which could get evem better when aldon Smith gets reinstated

In terms of afc playoff teams id rather have their d than the Pats or steelers.

I think the only elite defenses in the afc are Denver and Baltimore

Elite offense Oakland, ne, pitt
 
emkee said:
Alex Smith is not winning a SB and that defense can't be trusted.

All they are is a nice story.
Click to expand...

Since 2013, only 3 teams (NE, SEA and DEN) have won more games in the regular season.. Sounds like more than just a good story. Get Poe and Howard on the line, Ford opposite Houston and Nelson in the secondary for the first time together all year and as Lex said the defense could be dangerous... GL to all of us hitting the books hard moving forward.
 
Dollaz said:
To me , the Giants have the look of a team that has played nobody.

Their offense is below average. Footballoutsiders has them at 19 in the passing game and 23 in the run game. Defense is pretty solid, coming in at number 8 according to FO.

I think they are firmly right in the middle of the pack; league average team, average QB.

Their wins are:

NO by 3
Balt by 4
Rams by 7
Phi by 4
Cin by 1
Chi by 6
Cle by 14

Any of those teams above average? Not in my book.

Losses:

Skins @home
@Minny by 14
@GB by 7
Click to expand...

I hope you're right. This week will tell the tale for the Giants (and also for the Steelers, who just finished a holiday double helping of McCown and Tolzien). I just see a team similar to the 2011 team that beat the odds after going 9-7. Improving defense and good pass rush, no running game again (last in 2011), but a QB with a knack for the playoff performances and a better receiving core than 2011.
 
B,A,R, U of M got fucked big time i'm not a guy that is a monday QB and yes that loser QB did fuck everything up. but the calls where unreal sick yes U of M is hated they always have been STEED would agree and i'm not a homer if I think ohio state was the better etam I would have bet on ohio state . but the better team lost I blame a few people 1 yes is jim h and 2 the calls where sick do I believe that the zebras wanted ohio state to win you bet your life they did . 17-7 ohio state can't do a thing and jim h is letting this QB throw 20 yards are you kidding me with great D 17-7 that game should have been over pass interference that was not called not 1 or 2 times in OT with ohio state had the ball on 3 down that great run that running back made for ohio state on the left side holding by ohio state that was not called and I will tell you why it wasnt called because it would have been a 0ver 50+ yard field goal and the zebras didnt want to make that call but gguess what I seen it . I have beeen saying this for years when a ref is doing his job you better find out where the zebras was born it makes all the diff in the world
 
guaranteeed said:
Even with yesterday the Raiders defense the last 6 weeks is ranked 10Th in the league so they are improving

And like others have said they have an elite unit at pass rushing which could get evem better when aldon Smith gets reinstated

In terms of afc playoff teams id rather have their d than the Pats or steelers.

I think the only elite defenses in the afc are Denver and Baltimore

Elite offense Oakland, ne, pitt
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I think other than Houston these guys are the biggest fraud of a division leader in the NFL, possibly more so.

Their opponents have a combined record of 52-55. In their wins they have held opponents to an average of 13 pts which is impressive but said opponents have a combined record of 16-38. Two with winning records, Buffalo & Pittsburgh.

In their five losses they haven't covered any of the spreads & allowing 24.4 points to decent teams, other than NYJ.

I'll be looking to fade them against decent teams from here on out.
 
braves said:
Is that really a bad thing ?. I mean if wins and losses matter he is doing pretty good
Click to expand...

he's made some mistakes in high-profile games, which does make him look terrible but he also had to get himself to those games to be known as an idiot so it's a bit of a catch-22
 
No one mentions the Titans. They have been sneaky good this year.
very impressed with Mariota this year.
 
Washington, IF they can maneuver these last 5 has to be a VERY intriguing squad. They'll give up points, but they'll score em too. Being able to rush the passer how they can (rush not sack) can be big if they make postseason. Issue remains not being able to cash in in the RZ & not being able to to get good Offenses off the field more l. That's the big holdback
 
Gronk getting back surgery

Saying could be out for the season, not official yet but such shitty news

I dont think with the can win in the playoffs without him
 
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