Beaver Blitz Tuesday (5-29-07)

BlitzBandit

BlitzBandit

Friend of CTG
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took a hit with Seattle last friday.... time to move on...


Beaver Blitz (4-2) (66.6%)



Line Value:


Indiana @ Minnesota

Projected Line: Indiana -8

I just think Indiana is an elite team and they are playing what I think is the worst team in the league right now. Currently leaning to Minnesota @ home in revenge mode from the opening day loss to the Fever.




San Antonio @ Houston

Projected Line: Houston -1

Houston is not a horrible team. Ashley Shields is just a rookie, but she is averaging 20 pts a game. I think she wants rookie of the year. San Antonio is growing up quick together, but Houston should be favored here and I'm leaning to them depending on the actual line.




Sacramento @ Phoenix

Projected Line: Pick

This should be an interesting matchup. Sacramento will be playing their fourth straight road game and has not even seen their home turf yet. That's a rough start to a schedule and too demanding of them. Winning the last two was great for them and I'm sure they will be glad to be home next game against LA (even though that's a rough team to play), but I don't think they will handle Phoenix here. Again, I'll wait for the lines.




okay.. I copied and pasted the above from a write-up I already had ready to go, until I saw reds' thread and just posted my thoughts there... that said, here's the actual lines...



Indiana @ Minnesota

Actual Line: Indiana -6

Projected Line: Indiana -8


I was two points off in this one and it went against me as I was leaning to the Lynx. Still contemplating this one. There is no value for me on the line and I'm not really sure I want my money on the Lynx only giving 6 points, but I am still contemplating as I still think they come out strong for this one.





San Antonio @ Houston

Actual Line: Houston -2

Projected Line: Houston -1


One point off here. The way I see it, Houston should be ready to play in their first home game of the season. No line value, but I still like Houston alot here.




Sacramento @ Phoenix

Actual Line: Phoenix -1.5

Projected Line: Pick


A point and a half off. Again no line value, but I like Phoenix anyway. They are at home against a team that has already played 3 straight road games.





Be back later with some official plays.
 
im not sure what you are trying to accomplish w/ your line value/projected line. are you just trying to predict the line, which dosent mean much, or are you putting your own number up..which would mean alot if its accurate.gl
 
predict the line??... why would I want to do that??

of course the lines I project are where I believe they should be according to my rankings... then if they are way off, I see it as value for me.

for example... I had projected Indiana -7 at home against LA... so when the -3 came out, of course I saw that as value and jumped on Indiana...

it's just one of the things I look at when capping... it's something I do for myself...

when I say there is or isn't line value... I mean for me... and according to my lines... and my beliefs... take it for what it's worth.
 
alright then... going with two plays for Tuesday..




SA Silver Stars @ Houston Comets -2
HOUSTON.gif




and


Sacramento Monarchs @ Phoenix Mercury -1.5
phoenix.gif





going with the two home teams....

gl to everyone.
 
SA Silver Stars @ Houston Comets -2
HOUSTON.gif



This is the game I like the best for Tuesday. I like how San Antonio is playing, but Houston has lost to two quality teams (Seattle and Phoenix) on the road. Seattle had to come back from a 22 point deficit. This is Houston’s first home game and I expect them to be ready. Ashley Shields is making a statement that she wants the rookie of the year honors this season. She is currently averaging 20 points per game and I don’t see her slowing down with the home crowd behind her here. Tina Thompson is also averaging 20 points per game. Michelle Snow is averaging 14.5 points a game and 8 rebounds per game. The bottom line is this team has offense and should be able to out-produce the Silver Stars at home. The Stars should be ready for a let down here. I love how Becky Hammon moves the ball around when she's in there, but when she's contained or not in, I notice the team plays differently. She has been a key to their success. Houston should be able to handle her here.
 
I couldn't throw a fucking beachball in an ocean right now with the beaver ball right now so I'm tailing :cheers:
 
Sacramento Monarchs @ Phoenix Mercury -1.5
phoenix.gif


The Mercury had an 0-4 start last season. This year, they are 2-1 with a chance to go 3-1 with a home win here. Both Taurasi and Pondexter had a 30 pt game last year against this Monarchs team. I am expecting them to bring the same kind of all out effort here. They went 2-1 against the Mercury last year and both wins were at home. Now even though Yolanda Griffith hasn’t been on fire these first few games (only 5 pts in her first two games), she has averaged 15 pts against this Mercury team. Make no mistake though, this Mercury team is always up for a shooting contest. The Monarchs are playing their fourth straight road game and I think a fast paced shootout will be too much for them to close it out. I’m taking the Mercury at home here.
 
I'm currently leaning to the Under (165) in the Phoenix game. Phoenix has been averaging 93 pts per game, but the Monarchs are allowing 63 pts per game.. somethings' gotta give. I'm thinking Sacramentos' defense will keep em' under 85, but their offense will sputter enough to keep this Under...

I figure and 82-75 type game...


there were a couple of trends that stood out to me here...


Sacramento is 6-0 UNDER in road games where the total is greater than or equal to 150 over the last 2 seasons.

and

Sacramento is 16-2 UNDER in road games where the total is greater than or equal to 140 over the last 2 seasons.



I think there is good value in the Under, but since both teams had plenty of rest, they may come out firing.... I think I may stay away at the end... but still worth looking into.
 
GL today, BlitzB.

I'm still trying to figure out the WNBA, haven't watch enough games to have a good read on the matchups yet so I'll be tailing on both today.

Let's cash these tickets.
 
like em Blitz

question though...do u flat bet all games or rate games thus wager accordingly
 
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thanks for all the good wishes and sorry for the lack of responses fellas..

I've been tied up all day...

we need a good second half from Houston... since they couldn't keep their big lead... hopefully they pull through though...

be back in a bit with some responses.
 
yea.. the Houston play is pretty much a loss already...


regardless whether Phoenix pulls through or not, I have learned two valuable lessons tonight...

I blame myself as I have not been giving Boucek (1st year coach for Sacramento) the credit she deserves... I have been doubting her and it has been costing me... She has this team ready to go.


same thing goes for San Antonio... I can't seem to accept the fact that they have already started to mesh this early in the season and they mean serious business right now... they don't need time to mesh.. they are already doing it...

I have already pegged the Houston game wrong tonight and so far, the Phoenix game hasn't looked much better... either way, I need to stop doubting these two teams and I need to adjust them in my rankings.. it is costing me... these two teams are officially for real...

right now, I still need that second half push from Phoenix and I need to hope for the best, but this Sac team is pretty deadly.
 
this was just as bad as when Minnesota threw that last second meaningless Hail Mary from half court against Detroit to lose by 10 just so they would'nt cover the 12....

well,nevertheless, I shot blanks today...

as frustrating as it was, I need to shake it off and get things adjusted... hopefully for the better...

my apologies to all those that tailed.... hopefully tomorrow will be a better day.
 
Retburj said:
like em Blitz

question though...do u flat bet all games or rate games thus wager accordingly
Click to expand...


sorry... hadn't noticed this Ret....

to answer your question... No, I don't rate games and wager accordingly by rating...

I have been burned by those 'so called' high rated plays enough in my time... all it does is take away money that you worked hard to build already... because no matter how much you like em'.. they can lose...

for example... today I liked the Houston play more than the Phoenix... yet the Phoenix play was much closer and even almost won... had I bet bigger on the Houston play and had the Phoenix play won, I would be Under big... instead of just going 1-1 and eating a bit of juice for the night..

but it's not really just flat betting either...

it's all about money management... and I leave that up to the individual as I'm sure everyone does things differently.... but the one thing that is the same in everyones' goals... is we all try to win more than we lose... and if we can do that, then nobody should have problems being up at the end of the season.
 
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