Beating the close?

[captbunch18]

Seen this posted several times on here, mostly in the RAS/tout/bulky thread.

Can someone explain what it means?

Sorry if this is a really stupid question

 

[RetroVK]

It just means that you theoretically have an advantage when you have a better number than what the market closes at.

Assuming that the market is largely efficient and that the market is more efficient as more time passes and more money is invested, the close should be the point of the week where the lines most closely resemble what they actually should be.

Example:

You bet UCLA -7
It closes UCLA -8.5 ( what I predict it closes at just for shits and giggles )

you have a point and a half of value vs the market and therefore should have positive EV ( Expected Value ). In this case, 7 is a key number so your point and a half is worth more than say a point and a half from -33 bet to -34.5 close of a different game.

 

[RetroVK]

Hope that helps.

 

[RetroVK]

And not to start the debate again but generally speaking beating the close is a better indicator of future results than winning %

 

[tru]

And not to start the debate again but generally speaking beating the close is a better indicator of future results than winning %

no debate, u know I agree more now about beatin tha close than before. but I still think I can be profitable betting on game day, I have shown it for many years

 

[TheGarfather]

It is a long term principle though. Totally meaningless day-to-day or week-to-week. You can beat the market's closing number on all ten of your wagers and go 1-9 no problem.

 

[TheGarfather]

no debate, u know I agree more now about beatin tha close than before. but I still think I can be profitable betting on game day, I have shown it for many years

You certainly can, because the market move isn't always correct. That is the disconnect for me is when people argue the market move always shows the value. I think the market can get things wrong just as it can get things right, don't know if that is arguable from a theoretical perspective or not, but it makes sense to me.

 

[RetroVK]

I think so too since I go against moves late in the week when it puts a game in my play range.

 

[RetroVK]

I'm also not as convinced as I once was that the market is all that efficient. Too many singular opinions seem to influence the line.

 

[RetroVK]

I will still take the guy beating the close consistently over the guy hitting 54% consistently going forward.

 

[captbunch18]

Thanks for that. Now the posts in the RAS thread make more sense.

 

[TahoeLegend]

It may have a slight benefit in theory, but as Garfather and tru point out, the number is still an artificial and arbitrary number, chosen for a specific purpose, not to try and reflect the actual difference between two teams.

If you beat the close consistently it is possible you may have a slight advantage over a long period, two or three years perhaps, but not in any given game or any given week. And Vegas doesn't pay you one cent for beating the close.

In my experience it serves the same purpose as saying, "oh, I only lost because of a backdoor cover," a way for superstitious gamblers to rationalize a loss.

If you lose a bet your picking was in error whether you beat the close or whether you lost by a back door cover.

But if it helps a guy concentrate and helps his confidence then it is beneficial and he should stick to it.

 

[TheGarfather]

Tahoe, it is certainly more than just mental, there are mathematical principles in play here, but your comment about making the pick is spot on. In my view, if you handicap properly, then beating the closing market (i.e. most of the market money eventually agreeing with you) will be a by-product of that process. Some treat it as the whole goal, and those are screen scrapers, or steam chasers, by any other name. They don't care what sport or what number they just want to front run the close. Fine, if it works for you, then do it, but I don't have time for all that nonsense. To me, beating the close is more of a by-product of getting the right side/number than it is as a sole purpose.

 

[B.A.R.]

Tahoe, it is certainly more than just mental, there are mathematical principles in play here, but your comment about making the pick is spot on. In my view, if you handicap properly, then beating the closing market (i.e. most of the market money eventually agreeing with you) will be a by-product of that process. Some treat it as the whole goal, and those are screen scrapers, or steam chasers, by any other name. They don't care what sport or what number they just want to front run the close. Fine, if it works for you, then do it, but I don't have time for all that nonsense. To me, beating the close is more of a by-product of getting the right side/number than it is as a sole purpose.

Great post:shake:

 

[RetroVK]

While not the "be all, end all" ... it is pretty close to being the "be all, end all". And post #13 is just stating what beating the close means for a good handicapper. If you are making bets on Tuesday and have the worst of it on Saturday consistently then you aren't good and I don't care what your record is. Or you are an idiot savant the likes of which no one has ever seen before that you can defeat the game while losing to the market.

In other words ... in sports investing ... it is the biggest deal when it comes to winning. So while we can talk exceptions to the rule as far as market being wrong, let's not lose sight of the bigger picture and the reality of sports investing while we do.

 

[HUNT]

I find this thread amusing every year.

 

[braves]

I find this thread amusing every year.

Time for a p90x thread

 

[HUNT]

Time for a p90x thread

No shit.

 

[M.W.]

no debate, u know I agree more now about beatin tha close than before. but I still think I can be profitable betting on game day, I have shown it for many years

Of course. You just have to know what you're doing.