Be aware of the bear trap

R

RonG

Active Member
This Auburn/Clemson line has me very worried. I love this game and want to put my hard earned cash on the Clemson Tigers. 3 RB that are supposed to start are no longer available, Gus is starting a QB that doesn't fit his offensive scheme, and they seem in total disarray. Not so fast my friend! You look on all the forums and everybody is all over Clemson. But, the line has really only moved a half a point in the last 6 weeks.
Sports book directors are not stupid individuals. I think this is their Alamo game. They are going to take some cannonball shots during the day and it's going to look like the fort is about to surrender. But when you go to bed Saturday night, they are all going to be on that wall giving you the finger. They will have cashed all of those parley tickets that are 5-0 just needing Clemson to cover.
Everybody knows South Carolina sucks and the line has moved accordingly. Why has this one barely moved? Auburn has the second best recruiting class in the SEC the last 5 years. They will have a great defense. Clemson will not be able to recreate that game they had against Bama week one.
Now I could be totally wrong and this is my opinion only. But, there is something very fishy here. Tread with care. I think the under is the only play.
Also, 2 more traps that I might stick my foot in. Iowa and Ohio State. When are those lines going to cross the key number of 28?
If you see any other Bear traps, please post them here.
 
good luck avoiding the trap.

Looks like another Auburn player got in trouble today, btw.

It is interesting the line hasn't moved up, it was bet down oridinally by smart money .. so I definitely see your point there.

Best of luck all year, ron
 
You might be right but your word choice of great defense might be a little strong. WDE just the same and GL
 
i agree with you, to the point where i may play auburn. if the books wanted 50/50, they make this clemson -9.5 or 10. they are clearly taking a side here. every tom dick and harry in vegas is gonna have clemson
 
This line is hovering around 7 because we have an ACC school playing at a major SEC venue. There is no trick here. Auburn is in disarray both on and off the field. Auburn has an outstanding defensive line, but it pretty much ends there - offensively and defensively. They have virtually nothing behind that. If you don't like the Clemson -7.5 gift, take the Auburn team total UNDER gift.

Being a Bama man, Dabo absolutely despises Auburn!!! This is his Iron Bowl, and he'll win it by about 4 or 5 TDs.

Clemson 45 - Auburn 10
 
Jimmydafreak said:
This line is hovering around 7 because we have an ACC school playing at a major SEC venue. There is no trick here. Auburn is in disarray both on and off the field. Auburn has an outstanding defensive line, but it pretty much ends there - offensively and defensively. They have virtually nothing behind that. If you don't like the Clemson -7.5 gift, take the Auburn team total UNDER gift.

Being a Bama man, Dabo absolutely despises Auburn!!! This is his Iron Bowl, and he'll win it by about 4 or 5 TDs.

Clemson 45 - Auburn 10
Click to expand...

i have to disagree here. clemson was in teh NC last year and have all the hype this year. just bc Auburn is an SEC school doesnt mean thsi line should be 7. it just smells fishy and when something smells fishy, i take the other side.

look at the %'s....everybody and their mother is on Clemson
 
Logic-wise i dont disagree with anything you said. I just dont believe Vegas gives away gifts like that.
 
D-Woww said:
i have to disagree here. clemson was in teh NC last year and have all the hype this year. just bc Auburn is an SEC school doesnt mean thsi line should be 7. it just smells fishy and when something smells fishy, i take the other side.

look at the %'s....everybody and their mother is on Clemson
Click to expand...


Auburn is a really tough place to play

only thing I can think of
 
Dwow, thanks for the support. These trap games or lines are far more frequent in the NFL. And usually betting against the house is never wise. Some folks are just as passionate on the Clemson side. And maybe the books will have to be taken off of their position later in the week. I'm just pointing out something that I thought was strange. I just hope I'm right.
 
If this game had been played last January, Vegas's power ratings would have made Clemson -9.5. Clemson suffered more attrition, so the line has to be a bit lower. Don't impute omnisicience or great sophistication to the oddmakers.
 
CG Technology tweeted out that ticket count is 2-1 in favor of Clemson, and $ count 15-1 in favor of Clemson. It will be the biggest need for the books on Saturday.

Typically, National title losers have had depressing years after their championship loss. Auburn will be hungry coming off the piss poor year. 7.5 points is a ton in an SEC home game. Clemson played SC late last year on the road and only won by 5. Clemson played some battles on the road last year and didn't walk over opponents on the road. This one certainly looks like a trap. Auburn or pass.
 
The number is plenty inflated as it is, given it should be more in the 4/4.5 range. As MW mentioned, this is hardly an adjustment from the end of last year, and you have to imagine Clemson's PR can go nowhere but down and Auburn's (more than likely) nowhere but up.

Oh yeah, and Vegas doesn't set traps. Oddsmakers may be the ones to put up the first number, but the market ultimately decides where a number should be.
 
lindetrain said:
The number is plenty inflated as it is, given it should be more in the 4/4.5 range. As MW mentioned, this is hardly an adjustment from the end of last year, and you have to imagine Clemson's PR can go nowhere but down and Auburn's (more than likely) nowhere but up.

Oh yeah, and Vegas doesn't set traps. Oddsmakers may be the ones to put up the first number, but the market ultimately decides where a number should be.
Click to expand...

im not trying to argue with you, who works in the industry, about this, but i have heard oddsmakers in interviews say the exact opposite, that the "vegas wants 50/50 on every game" is the myth
 
D-Woww said:
im not trying to argue with you, who works in the industry, about this, but i have heard oddsmakers in interviews say the exact opposite, that the "vegas wants 50/50 on every game" is the myth
Click to expand...

Well it is a myth that they want 50/50 on every game, but that doesn't mean they set traps. What they say is that they take stands on games, not that they set traps to "get" anyone.
 
Lareux said:
Well it is a myth that they want 50/50 on every game, but that doesn't mean they set traps. What they say is that they take stands on games, not that they set traps to "get" anyone.
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Well isnt what people mean by a vegas trap is when they asy "we know that this line will drive action onto one side, but we believe the other side is going to win so we will gladly induce this lopsided action"

i dont think to books have players on the take or anything like that. i just listen when they are trying to tell you something.

teh down side; sometimes logic prevails and you lose your bet by 40 and look silly.
 
D-Woww said:
Well isnt what people mean by a vegas trap is when they asy "we know that this line will drive action onto one side, but we believe the other side is going to win so we will gladly induce this lopsided action"

i dont think to books have players on the take or anything like that. i just listen when they are trying to tell you something.

teh down side; sometimes logic prevails and you lose your bet by 40 and look silly.
Click to expand...

But it they aren't necessarily trying to trap anyone is the point. I guess it's just semantics to a degree. They aren't taking a stand with the intent to "trap" anyone, they would presumably just like one side more (based on the line shaped by the public) and act accordingly. It may end up that people feel they were trapped, just saying that wasn't the intent, it was a consequence.
 
Good discussion in this thread. Sportsbook directors get fired as often as NFL coaches. Check some of their resumes. Why? Because they open the property to a lot of risk. The profit margin in a book is very low overall compared to what the rest of the casino does. So when they are one sided on a game like this one and it loses, they are signing for their supper. When their right, they live to fight another day. They are the hero in the weekly meeting. I agree that getting 50/50 action is impossible. I also think that when they know they are right, they will take a game that's 15-1 one sided money and let the chips land where they may. Early $ and who laid that $ may have said to them that this is where we make a stand. Are they always right? No. But more often than not we are the ones scratching our heads. There will be some nervous SB mangers at 6:00 in Vegas Saturday night. Try making a large wager on Clemson at kickoff and see what happens. If they are having a bad day good luck.
 
Clemson put 40 on Alabama. A Kevin Steele led Auburn defense won't put fear into them, no matter where it's played. He is a downgrade on Muschamp. Clemson will need to have regressed big time on both sides of the ball, and Auburn improved on both sides. I'm not interested in the game, but if I was there is no way I would take a Sean White offense against a Brent Vebales defense over a Deshaun Watson offense against a Kevin Steele defense
 
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D-Woww said:
im not trying to argue with you, who works in the industry, about this, but i have heard oddsmakers in interviews say the exact opposite, that the "vegas wants 50/50 on every game" is the myth
Click to expand...

It is a myth, you play the man, not the market. If a sharp comes on and has 10k on Team A, and a mug comes on has 20k on Team B, you don't get an extra 10k out of Team A just to get a balanced book. If the mug wins, so what, he will give it back over time. You'd rather have the sharp guy on your side. I may move the line on Team A, but I won't even consider shortening Team B in this case.

On the flip side if I put up a line and the sharps take Team A then the line is moving. It will be made attractive to get the public on the other side. Simple things like the public over-rating or under-rating movements on to and off the key numbers, not knowing about the dead numbers on totals. A game like this may have have the smarties on both sides, so the line is right and why it hasn't moved. There are tricks I use to suck in the public to taking one side, but that is not an industry thing, just me. Or I haven't taken a cent, but Pinnacle has moved (my pet hate).
 
D-Woww said:
i agree with you, to the point where i may play auburn. if the books wanted 50/50, they make this clemson -9.5 or 10. they are clearly taking a side here. every tom dick and harry in vegas is gonna have clemson
Click to expand...

Betting a game because a line looks "fishy" is one the dumbest reasons to bet a game. You have no stats, reasoning or anything behind the bet besides you think too many people are betting one side. Heavily bet sides hit all the time. In fact, I bet if you did this all year you wouldnt hit barely higher than 50%

Reasons why the line is "only" 7.5:

1. Auburn is one of the toughest places to play
2. Auburn actually has more talent on their team (recruiting wise ) than Clemson
3. Clemson played 5 road games last year and 3 of them were close, winning by only 3, 5, and 10
4. Auburn's had 4 months to prepare for this game

Now Auburn might cover, but it has nothing to do with the line being fishy. 7.5 on the road is a lot. If you dont agree, I challenge you to start a thread and post every time you think a line is fishy and tally the results at the end of the year
 
D-Woww said:
Well isnt what people mean by a vegas trap is when they asy "we know that this line will drive action onto one side, but we believe the other side is going to win so we will gladly induce this lopsided action"

i dont think to books have players on the take or anything like that. i just listen when they are trying to tell you something.

teh down side; sometimes logic prevails and you lose your bet by 40 and look silly.
Click to expand...

To be honest, Vegas doesnt need to set traps. Most people are bad enough bettors they'll lose all their money sooner or later
 
Capone said:
Reasons why the line is "only" 7.5:

1. Auburn is one of the toughest places to play
2. Auburn actually has more talent on their team (recruiting wise ) than Clemson
3. Clemson played 5 road games last year and 3 of them were close, winning by only 3, 5, and 10
4. Auburn's had 4 months to prepare for this game
Click to expand...

Do you really think number 3 has anything to do with it? Those results -- except the Louisville result on a Thursday night -- had zero to do with being on the road.
 
lol

can't wait for the ultimate breakdown of the difference between 7.5 and 9.5
 
Capone said:
Betting a game because a line looks "fishy" is one the dumbest reasons to bet a game. You have no stats, reasoning or anything behind the bet besides you think too many people are betting one side. Heavily bet sides hit all the time. In fact, I bet if you did this all year you wouldnt hit barely higher than 50%

Reasons why the line is "only" 7.5:

1. Auburn is one of the toughest places to play
2. Auburn actually has more talent on their team (recruiting wise ) than Clemson
3. Clemson played 5 road games last year and 3 of them were close, winning by only 3, 5, and 10
4. Auburn's had 4 months to prepare for this game

Now Auburn might cover, but it has nothing to do with the line being fishy. 7.5 on the road is a lot. If you dont agree, I challenge you to start a thread and post every time you think a line is fishy and tally the results at the end of the year
Click to expand...


you're right fading the public never works.
 
D-Woww said:
you're right fading the public never works.
Click to expand...

Betting the team with the longer name, fading home teams at 4pm, or betting the team with the taller QB works some of the time, but all are stupid reasons to bet a game, just like yours.

You had a chance to give me reasoning, stats, whatever behind your theory and all you could come up with is " you're right fading the public never works." That just shows me that you have zero reasoning behind what you're doing. I told you to start a thread and post your side every time a line is "fishy" and see how you do, but you balked at it. This is your chance to prove me wrong.
 
Capone said:
Betting the team with the longer name, fading home teams at 4pm, or betting the team with the taller QB works some of the time, but all are stupid reasons to bet a game, just like yours.

You had a chance to give me reasoning, stats, whatever behind your theory and all you could come up with is " you're right fading the public never works." That just shows me that you have zero reasoning behind what you're doing. I told you to start a thread and post your side every time a line is "fishy" and see how you do, but you balked at it. This is your chance to prove me wrong.
Click to expand...

no i just work and study and have a generally busy life and dont have time to do a research project on it. im not concern with you you feel about this and i certainly dont care enough to do research. i just care about my bankroll.

tell you what, i am posting plays this year, anytime i see a "trap" game i will indicate it. at the end of the year well see how they do. fair and square.

but remember, i dont consider every game with a high % of the public on it a trap game. some teams in all sports are always gonna have a higher % of the public on them. im only talking about lines that to me, make zero sense. ill track the ones i feel like fit that bill this year and well see how it ends up
 
D-Woww said:
no i just work and study and have a generally busy life and dont have time to do a research project on it. im not concern with you you feel about this and i certainly dont care enough to do research. i just care about my bankroll.

tell you what, i am posting plays this year, anytime i see a "trap" game i will indicate it. at the end of the year well see how they do. fair and square.

but remember, i dont consider every game with a high % of the public on it a trap game. some teams in all sports are always gonna have a higher % of the public on them. im only talking about lines that to me, make zero sense. ill track the ones i feel like fit that bill this year and well see how it ends up
Click to expand...

Thats fine. Track them. I'm interested to see how it goes.
 
It feels like a game where some smart money is backing the auburn defense. My problem with liking auburn is a vast majority od the time a 6.5/7 pt favorite covers when they win. I dont think a loss to a bad auburn team can coexist with a playoff birth. So pretty big game for clemson. Clemson off the loss in the natty where bama d couldn't stop them. Since i would be shocked if auburn won, it feels like a tight window to lose by exactly 1-6
 
clowncar said:
It feels like a game where some smart money is backing the auburn defense. My problem with liking auburn is a vast majority od the time a 6.5/7 pt favorite covers when they win. I dont think a loss to a bad auburn team can coexist with a playoff birth. So pretty big game for clemson. Clemson off the loss in the natty where bama d couldn't stop them. Since i would be shocked if auburn won, it feels like a tight window to lose by exactly 1-6
Click to expand...


Same. I actually have Clemson winning fairly easily once it hits the second half. Auburn's D should keep it close for the first half, but eventually chasing Watson around will wear them out. There's also the possibility Auburn scores a late, meaningless TD to cover, but that's the chances we have to risk
 
This thread had created some great discussion during the week and I wish I could gloat a little. But after the day I had yesterday, this was one of the very few things I got right. I fell into the Iowa bear trap and that decision cost me a profitable day.
 
clowncar said:
It feels like a game where some smart money is backing the auburn defense. My problem with liking auburn is a vast majority od the time a 6.5/7 pt favorite covers when they win. I dont think a loss to a bad auburn team can coexist with a playoff birth. So pretty big game for clemson. Clemson off the loss in the natty where bama d couldn't stop them. Since i would be shocked if auburn won, it feels like a tight window to lose by exactly 1-6
Click to expand...
CC Do you have the new and update version of this?

View attachment 41352
 
1st game is always a dodgy one, dudes know the spread for months. Easier to prepare an anomaly.
 
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