Baylor @ Texas Discussion

adampeck

Well-Known Member
line on texas has dropped to 26.5. im considering that as a play, but for now there are 2 other numbers on this game that i love....

Over 48.... texas could conceivably get this themselves. i see texas scoring 41 points at an absolute minimum, that would mean baylor just needs to come up with a td to push. texas' pass D is not good this year, and all baylor can do offensively is throw the ball. texas shut out baylor last year, but the year before baylor scored 14 @ texas. i can see the bears scoring about 10 here, maybe more depending on how loose the texas D plays late in the game.

texas -7 first quarter- i think at the worst, this bet pushes. texas usually doesnt have a problem starting fast at home.

i also like the first half total of 25, not sure how i feel about texas -16 though.

thoughts???
 
Like the Over..like the quarter play..like the over more.

I see 42-17 kinda game
 
i have a feeling that if the game goes under 48, texas will actually cover. the final score would be something like 34-7.

but i agree, this game has 42-13 or 42-17 written all over it.
 
I'm amazed the line went down like it did. I bought it down to -28 for the game and took 1H -17... really like the first quarter play. Don't have too many thoughts on the over, but I could see adding that as well. I know on Sunday two of the three of rjurewitz, stacks, and soonerbs said they liked Texas. Just don't remember which ones now.
 
As a Texas fan, I don't always bet on us. But when I do (in these situations) I usually look at the 1st half line. I LOVE it, whether at -16 (where I got it on Sunday) up to -17 (and even 17'). That is the first bet I would make on this game.

If I was to choose another (and I have), I would go with UT -26'. I got it at 28' (an ugly #), but will probably double my bet on this one.

I know this is potentially a sandwich situation, but the reports are for bad weather, and even if we pound the ball, we'll put up 35-42 easily. Plus, there are rumors about Jevan Snead and a possible transfer, so don't expect Mack just to hand it off if we do get a big lead.
 
Who would you care if he transferred? Brantley coming in was the mvp of the elite 11 camp. Good riddance to snead imo. Thats a non factor in the game, but good luck and welcome to the site.
 
Here are some factoids that may help your decision. I'm leaning to laying the points, but the total on this thing might be a bit tricky.

On Baylor:
Defense...
They run a 4-2-5 with an eight man front look, and blitz from a variety of angles. Super Bill Bradley (Baylor DC) tries to disguise his fronts because his front 4 has very little ability to pressure and thus blitzing is a necessary evil. It's paid off to the tune of 12 picks thus far, albeit against horrible passing teams. Again, the front 7 is nothing to write home about, but they have 1 NFL quality corner in CJ Wilson and terrific athlete at the other corner in Anthony Airline. They'll be on islands much of the day, so their play might be the pivot point to the total. Don't be surprised to see McCoy throw a pick or two this game, as he'll be throwing vs. quality athletes while trying to read the most complicated blitz scheme he's faced this year. (tOSU didn't blitz much nor did OU) Running the ball shouldn't be a problem unless Baylor tries to outnumber the run. Even still, yards should come at a pretty good clip.

Offense...
Baylor runs a spread not unlike what Leach runs at Texas Tech. QB Bell chunks it around a good bit, but he's been sacked 15 times this year, playing behind a woeful Oline. To further exemplify their poor play, Baylor is averaging 40 yards a game rushing the ball. Army stuffed them for pete's weiner. Their receivers Zeigler and Shelton are good possession receivers, but woefully slow. Texas DB's should be able to sit on routes, and exploit Bell's weak arm. A pick six or two is not out of the question.

TEXAS:
Defense...
The report from Bellmont is that Akina named his two deep in the secondary and included Tarell Brown. I'm not sure if it is smoke and mirrors, but I'm still trying to get confirmation if Brown is hurt. Chizik is also talking about playing 4 defensive ends Orakpo, Lewis, Crowder, and Robison on obvious passing downs to get more pressure on Bell. Lewis is a hybrid, and Crowder has the size to drop inside, so this might be fun to watch if you're a Texas fan. Without a couple of breakdowns in the secondary, I don't expect Baylor to score more than 10 points.

Offense...
Expect to see a heavy dose of Snead, the backup uber-talented QB, which means Texas will pitch it around more than usual in the second half. This could be good or bad for the side, since he'll be throwing to an experienced secondary. Charles and Young have a chance to run for 100 each against this horrible front 7. Melton should pitch in his cheap 50.

If I had to call it now, I'd say Texas 38 to 10 as they'll ease off the gas in the 4th quarter.
 
abcs, it is a factor because it means Texas will throw the balll when he enters the game in garbage time.

Snead is a bigtime stud he just unfortunatley was a year behind Mccoy. Don't be so sure that Mccoy will be the starter next year because all reports were that Snead was getting more and more comfortable with the offense before Mccoy became a hero after his win vs OU. Snead is faster and has a much, much better arm and NFL potential.

Sound familar lol (Simms & Applewhite)?
 
Well it looks like Tarell Brown is out this weekend. Got this from another board.

Re: Tarell Brown, is he hurt?javascript:window.location.href=('compose.asp?sid=902&fid=500&style=2&rid=80874861&tid=80850486');"Word is broken toe, but that is just a rumor."

This is what I was told by someone on the team. He also said that Beasley would start this week.

Posted on 10/13 9:14 AM | IP: Logged
 
Also know Texas has games at Nebraska, and at Texas Tech next. And yes the weather is suppose to be pretty bad.
 
Exactly texasfight. Guys go read my thread were I initially took Texas then went the other way to Baylor upon hearing this. Still not 100% if its true but regardless he was walking around campus in a boot so he probably won't play much.

This is huge news as you saw what OSU did with Brown out. Texas has no depth behind Ross & Brown at corner.
 
what type of bad weather are we talking about here?? how do u texas boys feel about the over, thats the play im really looking at
 
Adam,

For me it is a no-play. Before the Brown news, I feel like it was a Texas pick (1H and game) all the way. Now, if anything, the side would be a no-play. Can't bet on Baylor in this situation.

As far as the total, I certainly think we have the ability to go over. If I was going to play it, that would be the side I would be on. Hope this helps some.
 
I'm playing the over. We'll score in the low 40's. Baylor will get a garbage score plus something during the meaningful time of the game. 42-17.
 
SHSUHorn said:
abcs, it is a factor because it means Texas will throw the balll when he enters the game in garbage time.

Snead is a bigtime stud he just unfortunatley was a year behind Mccoy. Don't be so sure that Mccoy will be the starter next year because all reports were that Snead was getting more and more comfortable with the offense before Mccoy became a hero after his win vs OU. Snead is faster and has a much, much better arm and NFL potential.

Sound familar lol (Simms & Applewhite)?

Its been all good this year Horn, but I wont sit back on this. Other than VY, UT has never had a remotely good QB. Applewhite was decent, but thats it. Simms was trash, McCoy is wood, and Snead will be no better. Snead has more NFL potential? If you mean slim to McCoys none, then Ill agree with you. VY got you guys what youve desired for so long, but it aint happening again for a long, long time. Your coaching staff and playcalling have always been dreadful, but VY finally made them look good by executing the same 2 plays to perfection in the National Title. Only 2 plays cause hes so f#$kin stupid, he couldnt retain more than 2. Back to the point, not bashing you, but please man, your team is right back where they started before VY. Great talent, good team, poor coaching. Texas will make it to a BCS game, due to them being better than the rest of the horrid Big 12 this year. But if they play any other team rather than Notre Dame, they will most certainly lose. Depeding on who they play, perhaps in brutal fashion...

violin
 
I dont think Simms was trash. The kid was talented yes he did struggle but he holds a ton of texas records. I still would take simms over vincent" i cant hit an open wr to save my life" young in the nfl. Texas fans seem to forget vincents first 2 years where they had a great ass team with an amazing line, amazing defense and cedric benson + roy williams came back and basically got 2 passes a game. Anyways, simms basically took on the face of mack brown and his career.. 10 - 2 . It took Vince a year or 2 to beat OU. I still dont want to put Mack Brown on the same page as Pete Caroll just yet. I admit they are heading in the right direction. They have everything a university could want in a sports program but ive never been that impressed with the qb play.

Texas fans do seem to forget vinces 65 - 13 game http://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/ncf/results/2003-2004/recap16571.html

And his 12 - 0 game http://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/ncf/results/2004-2005/recap17630.html Yes that says 8 - 23 passing.

Vince had an amazing Junior year, but as far as having a stellar career thats wrong!
 
Jester im talkin about for the NFL..

When vince gets his first 16 starts.. let me know if he has 8 wins like Chris did, he also led the team to the playoffs. People tend to forget how young of qb is, guys like carr and other young qbs seem to get a pass, i was pretty impressed with chris especially since gruden doesnt utilize him correctly. BTW lets see how many games gradkowski wins.
 
Simms is trash in the NFL. Plays on a running team built around defense and field position. Similar to Big Ben. VY is gonna have to win games himself, which puts him in an unenviable position...

xXx
 
Jesus this thread took a turn for the worse in a hurry.

I took Baylor plus 29 earlier in the week. Made the game 20 - surprised that Baylor just can't get any respect at all. Not like they are just that bad like they used to be.
 
jester2trife said:
Its been all good this year Horn, but I wont sit back on this. Other than VY, UT has never had a remotely good QB. Applewhite was decent, but thats it. Simms was trash, McCoy is wood, and Snead will be no better. Snead has more NFL potential? If you mean slim to McCoys none, then Ill agree with you. VY got you guys what youve desired for so long, but it aint happening again for a long, long time. Your coaching staff and playcalling have always been dreadful, but VY finally made them look good by executing the same 2 plays to perfection in the National Title. Only 2 plays cause hes so f#$kin stupid, he couldnt retain more than 2. Back to the point, not bashing you, but please man, your team is right back where they started before VY. Great talent, good team, poor coaching. Texas will make it to a BCS game, due to them being better than the rest of the horrid Big 12 this year. But if they play any other team rather than Notre Dame, they will most certainly lose. Depeding on who they play, perhaps in brutal fashion...

violin

Wow. And just think, Texas has the best winning percentage this century. How do you feel about the other 110+ Division 1 programs?

By the way. Texas is going to horsefuck whoever they play in their bowl game.
 
Texas just curious if they play USC or Michigan or Florida you seriously think they will blow them out. I mean they lost at home by 17 to Ohio ST. Yea they beat OU but losing by 17 at home TO ANYONE makes texas maybe 5 or 6 right now in the country imho.
 
I think Texas rolls SC if they played at the end of the year. SC's been looking for an asswhooping two weeks in a row. I suspect they'll get it in the next 3 weeks or so.

Michigan, I'm not sold on them yet. They were impressive against UND, a paper tiger, but so was MSU. They'll also struggle with Manningham out. They might lose this weekend. I'd have Texas as a 3 point fave on a neutral field.

Florida and tOSU are the two best teams in the country right now so my comment didn't pertain to them. They'll play for all the marbles.

Right now I'm guessing Texas gets Boise State or WVA in the fiesta, where they'll roll.
 
texasfight said:
I think Texas rolls SC if they played at the end of the year. SC's been looking for an asswhooping two weeks in a row. I suspect they'll get it in the next 3 weeks or so.

You do realize Jarret and smith have been hurt. When the bcs rankings come out sc will be 1 or 2, even if they lose to nd at the end of the year i think they still will be ranked higher than texas. Im pretty sure if u take out sneed and one of your backs your team would be limited as well. By the way the overrated USC team has beat arkansas and nebraska,washington and wash st ( all of whom are in the top 30 in sargins ratings) and the trojans have played the second hardest schedule so far this year, texas is 43rd. USC still plays Oregon, Cal and ND, who does texas have left in that brutal big 12? Lets not overrate this texas team becuz they beat up ona mediocre schedule ( i mean honestly wvu and Louisville might have more impressive wins by the end of the year ) Im just saying lets look at the glass from both sides. :drink:
 
BTW in a bowl game one difference between texas and the other teams will be the qb play. If talent is even which for texas and usc its pretty close
JDB is a first round prospect.. Mccoy isnt.. Leak is a future nfl qb.. Mccoy might be .. Troy smith is the possible heisman.. We saw what happened when they played texas.. Lets not underrate the most important position on the field. And if you guys do go 12 - 1 and 'roll boise' then congrats.. But i think teams like USC and Florida have bigger fish to fry this year. ( not putting texas down, it is still impressive to lose ur starting qb and play a freshman and have that record)
 
I had posted something on this game earlier this morning in this thread and my internet service went down before it got posted.

So, Terrell Brown is such a good and vital player on the Texas defense that Texas will not give a repeat ass-whipping of "little brother" again this year and at Austin no less? I'M NOT BUYING IT!! Two reasons:

1.) The strength of the Texas defense this season has not been their secondary anyway, it has been the defensive line. Surely they can get enough pressure on Bell to cause some mistakes.

2.) I haven't seen anything in this thread mentioned about one of the most motivating factors in college football -- bulletin board material!! One of the Baylor CBs has been mouthing off all week about how they are going to beat Texas and the rest of the Big 12 will be scared. Then he has been singling players out and talking trash about them! My inside sources say that the players have definitely noticed and are pissed! (I have a source that talks to Limas Sweed and some of the other players weekly.)

Listen guys, Mr. Mouth from Baylor has just took Texas attention on Nebraska off and put it smack dab on them! Look for Texas to give them their annual ass-whipping again tomorrow.

cleverman.gif
 
texasfight said:
I think Texas rolls SC if they played at the end of the year. SC's been looking for an asswhooping two weeks in a row. I suspect they'll get it in the next 3 weeks or so.

Michigan, I'm not sold on them yet. They were impressive against UND, a paper tiger, but so was MSU. They'll also struggle with Manningham out. They might lose this weekend. I'd have Texas as a 3 point fave on a neutral field.

Florida and tOSU are the two best teams in the country right now so my comment didn't pertain to them. They'll play for all the marbles.

Right now I'm guessing Texas gets Boise State or WVA in the fiesta, where they'll roll.

UT gets beat by Michigan, WVU, LSU, or the Gators if they were to play. I dont even need to comment about tOSU...
 
Texas Ex here and I love the 1H play. I am like another poster that I don't usually play Texas except on certain games. I think the Total Over could be covered, but I feel like the 1H Over is a better play.

Texas kicks major ass at home and they have owned Baylor the last 4 meetings, with 3 shutouts in that span. The total score is something like 210-14 or something like that. I am not sure on the ATS play for the 1H however, as Baylor can put up some points. That would only help the Over play.

Anyway, I will probably wait to play the 1H line until close to game time. I need to see how I do earlier in the day to gage what I can lay on this game.
 
jester, Dude put your UT hatred aside. Also please refrain from making any opinions about QBs. Do you remember what you said last year on Covers to me before the season started?

Reggie Mcneil was way better then VY and will be a better NFL QB.

Do I really need to say anything else?

Please explain how that opinion is working out for you right now?

What's next Stephen Mcgee will win the Heisman next year and Franchione will be behind him on the podium squeezing his nuts with him?

Cmon buddy.
 
So. RG Cedric Dockery (right knee) out; Jr. S Marcus Griffin (left ankle), questionable; Sr. CB Tarell Brown (right toe), questionable; Jr. DT Frank Okam (left knee), questionable; Sr. P/PK Greg Johnson (mild strain left left), probable.

That's some bigtime talent on that list.
 
Jester, now that I've had more time reading your post. You've got to be kidding me. How can you as an Aggie fan even talk any kinda trash? Shouldn't you guys be more concerned with Baylor and TT since that's the level the Aggie program has become?

Simms is trash? He owned Aggie when he played them and it wasn't even close. The guy is a starting QB in the NFL and holds a shitload of UT passing records. And don't be like every other Aggie fan and say OU because last I checked neither school is affliated.

Snead has no NFL potential? Explain to me how you know this when you don't even follow recruiting or even seen the guy play before since you live in California. Now your just throwing shit out.

Mack Brown is dreadful? Let's see when Fran gets fired from A&M that will be the second coach from that school he's run off. Who just beat Bob Stoops without VY again? IF VY was all world what is going on with him in the NFL right now? Also now your calling him all world but before the season you said he'd be drafted as a WR and was worse then Brad Smith and Reggie Mcneil. Which is it?

Only 2 plays cause hes so f#$kin stupid, he couldnt retain more than 2.

So Texas only ran two plays in the NC? Jesus dude I don't know what's stupider that comment or the fact that if that statement was true Pete Carroll is one stupid fucker.

Dude put the bong down because your smarter then this. Not sure why the sudden brainfart but if it was because you rewatched the Army/Aggie game then I understand. Were still cool.
 
This brings back some memories from covers bigtime lol. adam you wanna go at it for old times sake so we can get some Pac 10 bashing going. j/k

BTW: adam, what did I tell you about Moody? Kids a stud.
 
abcs, the closet Trojan fan. Are you a Georgia fan or USC? I could never tell at covers when I embarrased you before the title game last year. Do you remember that debate or should we let everyone on here know?

Haven't had to smack you around yet this year but your getting close.

Love how we have a Texas "Let's squeeze our nuts and still lose once again to Texas Tech" Aggie and a Georgia "Did we just get 51 points scored on us at home?" Bulldog fan are talking smack about Texas.

Love it. Keep bringing the smack its been awhile.
 
Just my hatred for UT getting you guys riled up. I never said VY was legit, legit athlete...Ill give you that. Dont give me the OU game from last week, their talent level isnt anywhere close to you. Please dont give me and Chrissy Simms comments. The only thing he ever did was throw an INT on the frickin 2 yard line thatll never leave anyones brain. I do hate you fuckers more than anything, but youre not a bad team. Youre FAR from a great team. ATM hasnt played Army this year. I dont know what youre talking about....:)
 
where are all the covers emoticons. i wana post the rolling laughing head.

the only thing i will say in defense of usc's loss in the rose bowl is that they went in to that game iwth about the 40th best D in the country. Texas D was top 10 and top 5 in every category. if SC had their D from 03 or 04 usc wins that game.

unfortunately they didnt, and the defense was horrible. that dumbass asian cb ting shoulda opened his eyes and intercepted VY's pass on the 2nd to last drive of the game rather than batting it down.
 
jester, lol. Your boys need to go hire Butch Davis then things will get interesting.

adam, I like Cal as well but I'm also on the USC train that if they go undefeated despite the close losses they should be in the title game. Nebraska, at Arkansas, ND, Cal, Oregon. Noway they should be left out of the NC title game.

Question is if OSU, Florida, and USC gets in who gets left out? Hate to say it but OSU played the easier schedule of the three even with dominating my Horns in Austin. Michigan needs to win out as does Texas or OSU could be the next Auburn.
 
jester, lol. Your boys need to go hire Butch Davis then things will get interesting.

Youve known me for years, you know how long Ive been dreaming of that day. But I get this feeling he'll be roaming the sidelines in near South Beach next year....
 
horn, i agree 100%. if SC wins out, they deserve to play in the NC game, and im bout 90 percent sure that they will, as i think half the computer rankings have SC #1. with 3 games against top 15 teams coming up, no way SC drops below #2 if they win out.

but unless SC improves on both sides of the ball, cal beats them. it could be a shootout like in 03
 
texasfight said:
Florida and tOSU are the two best teams in the country right now so my comment didn't pertain to them. They'll play for all the marbles.

quote]

this is waaaay off the subject but I just have to say it.

putting that "t" in front of OSU is the most retarded thing when it comes from a NON FAN. almost like it is an as kissing thing here. do not be that guy.

there. i have it off my chest. been wanting to say it for a long time. :smiley_acbe:
 
I do it because I'm a big twelve guy and OSU usually means Oklahoma State when I'm in discussion. The t allows me to differentiate between the two schools. I really don't give a shit if it bothers anyone.
 
abcs--SMODOD said:
Jester im talkin about for the NFL..

When vince gets his first 16 starts.. let me know if he has 8 wins like Chris did, he also led the team to the playoffs. People tend to forget how young of qb is, guys like carr and other young qbs seem to get a pass, i was pretty impressed with chris especially since gruden doesnt utilize him correctly. BTW lets see how many games gradkowski wins.

really has to be one of tha dumbest quotes ive seen here at CTG. how can u compare young an simms on wins in tha NFL? u put simms on tha titans this year an he wouldnt be doin any better, u put young on tha bucs las year team an he would do jus as good if not better. 2 totally different teams, ur compairin apples an oranges, come back wit somethin better than this shit abcsmodod
 
SHSUHorn said:
abcs, the closet Trojan fan. Are you a Georgia fan or USC? I could never tell at covers when I embarrased you before the title game last year. Do you remember that debate or should we let everyone on here know?

Haven't had to smack you around yet this year but your getting close.

Love how we have a Texas "Let's squeeze our nuts and still lose once again to Texas Tech" Aggie and a Georgia "Did we just get 51 points scored on us at home?" Bulldog fan are talking smack about Texas.

Love it. Keep bringing the smack its been awhile.

LMAO .. smack me around :spank:
Im not an sec homer.. a uga lover or anything like that. Ill admit the years we won the sec, the conf was down. Ill admit our d is overrated it always is. All sec defenses are, mainly becuz there is no offenses in the conf
 
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