Baseball: Week 8

[mrpickem]

Well I did manage a winning week, only my 2nd of 7 so far, but I do feel a little better although I'm down 20.335 units

Last Week
MON 8-1 +5.937
TUE 5-6 -0.615
WED 5-4 -0.098
THU 7-0 +7.340
FRI 3-6 -3.886
SAT 4-5 -1.281
SUN 2-3 -0.830
WK7 34-25 +6.567

Today I'm on 3 favs. Of todays starters, Quintana has the best record over last 365 days (24-11 +11.65u) and he has been a stellar 14-3 at home. Cubs pen has been overused(over 3.5 inn p/game) so I would expect Jose goes deep. Also rolling with Tribe mostly a Tiger fade, but Carrasco has 2nd best record over last year (24-10 +8.4u)

• 909 Cleveland Indians -216
• 902 Arizona Diamondbacks -143
• 912 Boston Red Sox -149
• 912 Boston Red Sox -1½ +135

BoSox qualify on this May trend I like.
HF and 4.0 < A(runs) < 4.5 and season > 2015 and month = 5 and o:STDSERA < 3.4 and p:W
SU: 72-35 (1.13, 67.3%) avg line: -152.2 / 140.2 on / against: +$2,307 / -$2,702 ROI: +14.2% / -25.2%

RL: 52-55 (-0.37, 48.6%) avg line: 143.8 / -161.6 on / against: +$1,665 / -$2,587 ROI: +15.3% / -14.9%


Quintana last year at home
View attachment 32435

Tribe fav trend
View attachment 32432
Here's another trend fading A's and Brewers that produces 18.5% ROI and cashed 75% of the time!
AD and line > 125 and STDSERA < 2.9 and o:STDSWHIP <= 1.1 and month > 4 and month < 9 and season > 2013
Basically is an away dog over 125 with good starter(under 2.9 era) vs very good starter (under 1.1 whip) over 4+ years
You need to exclude April because early ERA/WHIP numbers are skewed and also omit Sept for obvious reasons
View attachment 32434

 

[mrpickem]

mon 0-4

• 973 New York Yankees/Washington Nationals Over 8½ -115
• 952 San Diego Padres -103
• 956 Atlanta Braves +118
• 967 Houston Astros -177 *3u risk
• 976 Pittsburgh Pirates -140

Braves have best record and they keep hitting. Folty been pretty good so far and Yu sux. Nats angle over 70 degrees. Pads a fade play and line has moved from col -125 to flat. Stros are road warriors, esp as favorite...12-2 at -150 or more this year. ChiSox bad team, bad road team, bad pen, 2-9 in may, 3-13 vs winning teams, etc...

PIT ANGLE / ROX FADE
View attachment 32441

 

[tuck321]

Folty splits seem much better

 

[mrpickem]

Folty splits seem much better

Should have won, but blown in 9th..only loser I had

TUE 5-1 with one rainout (Note: Counted Astros as 3 since I always play 1unit but that was 3 unit..still only + 2.38u on day)

• 917 Houston Astros -129 .
• 923 Toronto Blue Jays -123
• 923 Toronto Blue Jays -1½ +140
• 927 New York Yankees/Washington Nationals Over 7½ +105
• 928 Washington Nationals -164

Still riding Hou road fav trend and happily with Justin on hill. https://goo.gl/p8z4M2
Nats total trend over 70 at home. https://goo.gl/qN2Emo
Max vs CC mismatch... and fits here - > https://goo.gl/eug5ju
Jays figure in several angles I like including this met fade https://goo.gl/odB2Uc

Wanted Nats RL, but hate laying stick at home without potent offense. Considering a couple more. Like PHI but no line yet and maybe under in KC

GL Gents

View attachment 32456

 

[mrpickem]

add

• 919 Philadelphia Phillies -115

 

[scarf31]

add

• 919 Philadelphia Phillies -115

On it, too...BOL today, Mr. P

 

[mrpickem]

• 910 Detroit Tigers +205

a flyer...DET decent at home, good in day and CLE avg road team(6-11), plus tigers are 2-0 this year at +175 or more at home, plus they avg 30% more double plays than league average

 

[mrpickem]

adding...

View attachment 32484

 

[mrpickem]

• 903 Cincinnati Reds +140

 

[mrpickem]

adding

• 917 Houston Astros -1½ +140

many reason I'm on stros...but this one pushed me to RL as well

 

[mrpickem]

wed 7-2 +3.7u

Rangers as a favorite, hmmm. Dont happen often but Chisox are terrible and Cole can still bring it. CHi opps avg over 5.4 rpg

• 963 Texas Rangers -125

 

[mrpickem]

thur 0-0 as tex scratch cause cole didnt go

Fri

• 918 Boston Red Sox -164
• 918 Boston Red Sox -1½ +120
• 902 Washington Nationals -208
• 911 Philadelphia Phillies +111
• 901 Los Angeles Dodgers/Washington Nationals Under 7 -101
• 909 Miami Marlins +1½ -120

Normally I wont lay stick at home but with Sox offense I'll make exception as current sox since '17 have covered stick over 75% of home wins https://goo.gl/vqGAn5 ...also the O's 0-19 on road vs a starter over 3.85 era and I don't put great stock in that, but they are also only 23-46 with their own starter era over 3.85 on road last 2+ year https://goo.gl/S31FQi
PHI qualifies for my poor hitting team on road with starter with low HR rate https://goo.gl/KDRXcZ

Dodgers and Fish both qualify for this fade away dog over 150 with poor avg <250 vs good starter (under 2.65 era) over 5 year+

AD and line >= 150 and tA(hits) / tA(at bats) <= .25 and league = NL and o:STDSERA <= 2.65 and season > 2013
SU: 35-111 (-1.45, 24.0%) avg line: 194.2 / -214.8 on / against: -$4,714 / +$4,119 ROI: -32.3% / +13.1%
RL: 77-69 (0.05, 52.7%) avg line: -119.9 / 114.3 on / against: -$538 / -$251 ROI: -3.0% / -1.6%


View attachment 32496

 

[bee172]

BOL

Leaning on the Red Sox, O’s offense were shut the F down by Price last night minus one bad pitch that Machado hit over the Green Monster

 

[mrpickem]

• 903 San Diego Padres +110
• 924 Kansas City Royals +165
• 969 Baltimore Orioles +165
• 903 San Diego Padres +1½ -200
• 924 Kansas City Royals +1½ +100

Bailing on Sox...too much weirdness. Still on BOS RL but have ML both ways with a small profit built in. Here's a nice angle for dogs. Friday night is usually dog night out.

 

[mrpickem]

late adds...

• 914 San Francisco Giants* -114
• 926 Los Angeles Angels* -142
• 927 Detroit Tigers* +162
• 914 San Francisco Giants* -1½ +170

 

[mrpickem]

FRI 5-7 with 3 scratches, hit mostly dogs so only -.9u
Nats haven't played since Sunday....should be well rested

• 973 New York Yankees -1½ -145
• 973 New York Yankees -234

NYY when Severino starts are 26-10 last 365 days, most wins started by any pitcher is that time frame. Also Luis has 3rd highest plus unit on the ML ane the highest return on the RL! Both over 14 units to the good!
Also NYY has only lost once with Severino over a 180 favorite 18-1 as well as 17-2 RL
View attachment 32514

 

[mrpickem]

Nats well rested, as long as they haven't lost their sharpness, LAD just lost period, with bad starter, lesser of the bullpens, 4th day on the east coast after losing 6 of last 8 at home. I really think this could be a sweep since Dodgers will have to fave Max later.

• 984 Washington Nationals -½ +105 1st 5 Innings
• 984 Washington Nationals -1½ +170

View attachment 32518

 

[tuck321]

Boston may be a blast off. Bundy on 5 9.15 ERA on a large sample Boston a good Saturday team Baltimore I believe 1-7

 

[bee172]

Nats well rested, as long as they haven't lost their sharpness, LAD just lost period, with bad starter, lesser of the bullpens, 4th day on the east coast after losing 6 of last 8 at home. I really think this could be a sweep since Dodgers will have to fave Max later.

• 984 Washington Nationals -½ +105 1st 5 Innings
• 984 Washington Nationals -1½ +170

View attachment 32518

Echo your sentiments, need a rally here for F5 as well

 

[mrpickem]

Echo your sentiments, need a rally here for F5 as well

Yeah Nats shit the bed...time off cooled the bats

Boston may be a blast off. Bundy on 5 9.15 ERA on a large sample Boston a good Saturday team Baltimore I believe 1-7

Yeah I thought about Sox but was out most of the day and wasnt able to get plays I wanted, GL

 

[mrpickem]

sat 2-2

• 904 Cincinnati Reds +1½ -125 https://goo.gl/ZpK3eX
• 904 Cincinnati Reds +136
• 907 San Diego Padres +115 https://goo.gl/KDRXcZ
• 909 Los Angeles Dodgers/Washington Nationals Over 7½ -101 https://goo.gl/qN2Emo
• 911 Philadelphia Phillies -113 https://goo.gl/xFXL4Z
• 917 Oakland Athletics -104 https://goo.gl/xFXL4Z
• 928 Houston Astros -128 https://goo.gl/WZKqvz
• 928 Houston Astros -1½ +165

GL Gents
View attachment 32527

 

[B.A.R.]

Get after it today..no idea who ya picked (something else had my attention) but good luck