Jimmydafreak
Pretty much a regular
Personnel wise Alabama is better across the board, particularly in terms of depth - a factor very few people ever take into consideration. That said, Alabama had better personnel last season and lost. That is why, as they say, "they play the game."
Moreover, the fact that Alabama has better personnel does not mean that Texas A&M doesn't have good personnel, because clearly they do. They also have fantastic coaching that gets the most out of the talent they have - particularly offensively. Despite Alabama having the best defense in college football, Texas A&M is still going to score points. They're too good offensively for anyone to completely shut them down. Aside from the obvious (Johnny Maziel), one concern for Alabama is the size of Texas A&M receivers - particularly Mike Evans, Edward Pope and Derel Walker. The key to defending Manziel will be to push the pocket while maintaining gap integrity. Alabama has the front 7 to do that effectively, but Texas A&M's strength is their offensive line, so that will be a key match-up in the game.
The huge mismatch in this game occurs on the other of the ball. Alabama's offensive - which I believe will ultimately prove to be the best in school history - versus Texas A&M's defense is a huge mismatch. Alabama is going to score at will in this game, and depending on how effective they are at killing the clock, will push the 50-point mark.
Ultimately this game will boil down to which defense can get the most stops, and there is no doubt in my mind that Alabama's defense will get quite a few more than Texas A&M's defense. Despite all of the media hype to the contrary, this is not going to competitive football game. I think Alabama will score somewhere between 42-52 points depending on how effective they are at chewing up the clock, and that Texas A&M will score somewhere in the 17-27-point range. Suffice to say that Alabama minus anything south of 14 points will be a "Max Bet" for me.
With respect to the total, I said that I thought the total in Week 1 (45-46) was a pretty sharp number, and it was. I feel the same way about the 61-62 number this week. And although I won't be playing it, I definitely lean to the OVER.
