Join the Dark Side and Bet on Evil Empire to Advance Past Oakland
The Yankees host the A's on Wednesday night on TBS in the Wild Card game. The Bronx Bombers will smash their way to victory and it won’t be close.
Oakland (97-65) at New York Yankees (100-62)
Wednesday, 8 ET (TBS)
MLB Pick: Yankees
I know a number of bettors who rushed to bet on Oakland as soon as they heard that New York’s Luis Severino (19-8, 3.39 ERA) would be his team’s starter in the Wild Card game. History can be a useful capping tool, but those bettors show how history can mislead you into picking the wrong side. The key term is sample size. Severino started the Wild Card game last season and was belted by the Twins, who produced three runs in 0.1 innings. It would be a mistake to read too much into that outing. It was one outing. It was his first playoff experience ever. He was 23 years-old. In sum, he was nervous. And who could blame him? When I was 23, I couldn’t even strike up a conversation with a woman let alone perform on one of baseball’s biggest stages. If Severino had a high ERA after 50 playoff games, then we could find a logical reason for it. But there’s no basis for dismissing a pitcher over one bad outing. Instead, there’s literally a million examples of a pitcher having one bad outing and bouncing back from that experience. After that disastrous playoff debut, Severino bounced back and allowed three runs over seven innings in his next start against Cleveland. Severino has learned from that outing against the Twins and has grown into a more mature pitcher.
But Oakland backers still aren’t done reminding us of their tiny samples sizes. They point out that Severino’s last start in Oakland was also a disaster. If they had done a little bit of reading, they would see that catcher Gary Sanchez had just been activated from the DL. Sanchez was struggling behind the plate and was having communication and catching issues with his respective pitcher. So it’s not like Severino can’t pitch against Oakland—he allowed one run over six innings against them in May. His 1.83 FIP in that outing indicates that he pitched well and didn’t rely on luck. Furthermore, his career ERA is lowest with Sanchez at the plate, 3.00. Sanchez, in that one time frame in early September, was having issues readjusting to post-DL life. Yankee manager Aaron Boone has forgotten that one debacle, just like he forgot Severino’s debacle against Minnesota last year. And so should you.
Severino has conceded only four runs in his last three starts. He’s excelled against quality competition, conceding one run in seven innings against Boston. Severino will also excel against Oakland because he matches up well with them in two crucial aspects. The A’s rank 22nd in slugging in September against Severino’s two favorite pitches—the fastball and slider—from righties. Moreover, Severino’s most prominent feature is his velocity. His fastball averages between 95 and 100 mph. Oakland slugs .292 as a team against the 95-100 mph fastball from righties. .292 makes them second-to-last in the category.
Even if Severino struggles or if the game remains close late, New York boasts the fourth-best bullpen in terms of ERA. Chad Green and closers Zach Britton and Aroldis Chapman have lately been shutting down opponents on a consistent basis. Jonathan Holder has been untouchable at home.
On the offensive side of things, New York batters have accrued success against Oakland’s relief pitcher Liam Hendriks, who will start for Oakland. They’re batting .316 and slugging .526 against him. Against Oakland pitching as a whole, the Yanks have succeeded in New York, producing 18 runs in three games. New York won its home series against Oakland, two games to one. The Yanks have won nine out of its past 13 games largely thanks to its offense. They’ve produced 33 runs in their past four games. Watch for Miguel Andujar, who is slugging .654 in his past seven days. Aaron Judge is slugging .846 against the A’s. Giancarlo Stanton is slugging 1.000 in his past seven days. They’ve achieved all this success recently despite playing mostly on the road. New York is baseball’s second strongest home team after Boston mostly because of its hitting. But when Severino starts, the Yanks also benefit from strong pitching, which is why they’re a sick 13-2 in Severino’s home starts, yielding +7 units.
Although the playoffs haven’t been kind to the Yankees in recent history, they did win their last Wild Card game 8-4 last season against the Twins. This is a storied franchise with at least 16 more World Series wins than anybody else, 27 overall. Expectations are always high and this year’s roster has the power to live up to those expectations.
The Yankees host the A's on Wednesday night on TBS in the Wild Card game. The Bronx Bombers will smash their way to victory and it won’t be close.
Oakland (97-65) at New York Yankees (100-62)
Wednesday, 8 ET (TBS)
MLB Pick: Yankees
I know a number of bettors who rushed to bet on Oakland as soon as they heard that New York’s Luis Severino (19-8, 3.39 ERA) would be his team’s starter in the Wild Card game. History can be a useful capping tool, but those bettors show how history can mislead you into picking the wrong side. The key term is sample size. Severino started the Wild Card game last season and was belted by the Twins, who produced three runs in 0.1 innings. It would be a mistake to read too much into that outing. It was one outing. It was his first playoff experience ever. He was 23 years-old. In sum, he was nervous. And who could blame him? When I was 23, I couldn’t even strike up a conversation with a woman let alone perform on one of baseball’s biggest stages. If Severino had a high ERA after 50 playoff games, then we could find a logical reason for it. But there’s no basis for dismissing a pitcher over one bad outing. Instead, there’s literally a million examples of a pitcher having one bad outing and bouncing back from that experience. After that disastrous playoff debut, Severino bounced back and allowed three runs over seven innings in his next start against Cleveland. Severino has learned from that outing against the Twins and has grown into a more mature pitcher.
But Oakland backers still aren’t done reminding us of their tiny samples sizes. They point out that Severino’s last start in Oakland was also a disaster. If they had done a little bit of reading, they would see that catcher Gary Sanchez had just been activated from the DL. Sanchez was struggling behind the plate and was having communication and catching issues with his respective pitcher. So it’s not like Severino can’t pitch against Oakland—he allowed one run over six innings against them in May. His 1.83 FIP in that outing indicates that he pitched well and didn’t rely on luck. Furthermore, his career ERA is lowest with Sanchez at the plate, 3.00. Sanchez, in that one time frame in early September, was having issues readjusting to post-DL life. Yankee manager Aaron Boone has forgotten that one debacle, just like he forgot Severino’s debacle against Minnesota last year. And so should you.
Severino has conceded only four runs in his last three starts. He’s excelled against quality competition, conceding one run in seven innings against Boston. Severino will also excel against Oakland because he matches up well with them in two crucial aspects. The A’s rank 22nd in slugging in September against Severino’s two favorite pitches—the fastball and slider—from righties. Moreover, Severino’s most prominent feature is his velocity. His fastball averages between 95 and 100 mph. Oakland slugs .292 as a team against the 95-100 mph fastball from righties. .292 makes them second-to-last in the category.
Even if Severino struggles or if the game remains close late, New York boasts the fourth-best bullpen in terms of ERA. Chad Green and closers Zach Britton and Aroldis Chapman have lately been shutting down opponents on a consistent basis. Jonathan Holder has been untouchable at home.
On the offensive side of things, New York batters have accrued success against Oakland’s relief pitcher Liam Hendriks, who will start for Oakland. They’re batting .316 and slugging .526 against him. Against Oakland pitching as a whole, the Yanks have succeeded in New York, producing 18 runs in three games. New York won its home series against Oakland, two games to one. The Yanks have won nine out of its past 13 games largely thanks to its offense. They’ve produced 33 runs in their past four games. Watch for Miguel Andujar, who is slugging .654 in his past seven days. Aaron Judge is slugging .846 against the A’s. Giancarlo Stanton is slugging 1.000 in his past seven days. They’ve achieved all this success recently despite playing mostly on the road. New York is baseball’s second strongest home team after Boston mostly because of its hitting. But when Severino starts, the Yanks also benefit from strong pitching, which is why they’re a sick 13-2 in Severino’s home starts, yielding +7 units.
Although the playoffs haven’t been kind to the Yankees in recent history, they did win their last Wild Card game 8-4 last season against the Twins. This is a storied franchise with at least 16 more World Series wins than anybody else, 27 overall. Expectations are always high and this year’s roster has the power to live up to those expectations.
