Back-to-Back System - 13-4 record since start of season
- Thread starter mrpickem
- Start date
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Not particularly but in these matchups when you only look at North Division
They have only went over 36% this year (9-16-1) and have cashed under 8 of L9
ondering:
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
| Lets see where this goes today... | |
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mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
I'm open to suggestions...I've looked at divisions, fav vs dog and line level...maybe next game or rest??
Favorites 11.2% ROI
Dogs 3.3% ROI
But if you only take Dogs over 120 you get 17% ROI
Not sure why but if you remove games where the pick gets 1 day rest, the ROI jumps to 31%
So either zero rest of at least 2 days, but I see no logic to this and it's a smallish sample so probably meaningless
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
a little more specific???
team in this situation after going over total last game win near 65% for +16.4% ROI including 4 of L5 (Wings tonight)
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
YESTERDAY [0-2 -10u]
SINCE 1/28 [33-30 -35.83u]
I can ruin a good system that was 69-34 +31.6u +21.4% ROI alltime through Feb 8 but has went 10-22 -17.3u -38.1% ROI since then. That plus that was about the time I increase from 3 to 5u per game. lol
Talk about regression to the mean...
Senators are the play tonight and since I'm off, it's sure to be a winner :rofl:
BOL Players!
:cheers3:
SINCE 1/28 [33-30 -35.83u]
I can ruin a good system that was 69-34 +31.6u +21.4% ROI alltime through Feb 8 but has went 10-22 -17.3u -38.1% ROI since then. That plus that was about the time I increase from 3 to 5u per game. lol
Talk about regression to the mean...
Senators are the play tonight and since I'm off, it's sure to be a winner :rofl:
BOL Players!
:cheers3:
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Tuesday [1-0 +9.75u]
Season [34-32 -26.08u]
I did play Ottawa yesterday at +195 at a much smaller unit size :/ but I will continue tracking these at 5u risk to see where it goes.
I am eliminating the West Division since they are 4-13 in February and the only losing division on the year.
Season [34-32 -26.08u]
62 Toronto Maple Leafs -145 vs Calgary Flames
5/3.45
88 Florida Panthers -125 vs Dallas Stars
5/4
I did play Ottawa yesterday at +195 at a much smaller unit size :/ but I will continue tracking these at 5u risk to see where it goes.
I am eliminating the West Division since they are 4-13 in February and the only losing division on the year.
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
| WEDNESDAY [1-1 -1.55u] SINCE 1/28 [35-33 -27.63u] | |
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Lightning & Panthers pending...no lines yet
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
| SATURDAY [1-1 +0.25u] | |
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Literally every home team qualifies today, so let's see where this goes :cheerclap:
chipnotized
Bigger Slapper Than Al MacInnis
6-team Round Robin x 2's parlay is how I'm going to tackle it.
Thanks Mr.P
Thanks Mr.P
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
| SUNDAY [3-3 -3.28u] SEASON [43-39 -21.03u] | |
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ALL THE FAVS WON AGAIN...THIS YEAR THE FAVS HAVE REALLY TOOK OVER, ESP LAST 7 WEEKS
LAST 7 WEEKS FAVORITES WITH LINE OVER -120 CHALK
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
| Tuesday [1-0 +3.71u] Season [45-41 -20.08u] | |
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Favorites went 7-0 last night and over the last 4 days favs laying over 120 are 24-5 for +34.9% ROI
Favs over 120 chalk are a solid 175-88 66.5% for 8% ROI on the season.
Sweet spot may be favs of 160 or more: 88-35 71.5% for 8.5% ROI this season. (Last 7 days: 17-3 85% +32.2% ROI
Back to our system...teams playing 2nd straight at home vs same team by division
| games | SU W - L (marg, %win) | Avg Line | o:Avg Line | $ On | ROI | OU W - L- P (marg, %over) | Avg Total | SDQL | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | 14-13 (0.41, 51.9%) | 101.1 | -116.9 | +$100 | +3.3% | 9-18-0 (-0.74, 33.3%) | 5.8 | division = East | ||
| 35 | 16-19 (0.00, 45.7%) | -129.2 | 109.2 | -$858 | -16.9% | 20-14-1 (0.11, 58.8%) | 5.5 | division = West | ||
| 36 | 22-14 (0.58, 61.1%) | -123.9 | 105.0 | +$776 | +15.8% | 14-20-2 (-0.43, 41.2%) | 6.2 | division = North | ||
| 39 | 27-12 (0.67, 69.2%) | -121.7 | 103.8 | +$1,670 | +31.6% | 18-20-1 (-0.05, 47.4%) | 5.6 | division = Central |
The west is the only shitbird while the Central is the cash cow! At least so far.
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
| Friday [2-0 +9.8u] Season [47-43 -20.28u] | |
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mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
| Saturday [5-2 +10.56u] Season [52-45 -9.72u] | |
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"Murphy Law" as soon as I drop to 4u per game it's gone 7-2 last 2 days...but can't complain about winning :shake:
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
| Yesterday [1-1 -2u] Season [55-47 -10.81u] | |
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mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
| Yesterday [3-2 +2.33u] Season [58-49 -8.48u] | |
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Decent day yesterday, but the problem is I strayed from unit wagered. Should have had 4u on Wings to return 12.4 but alas...it's hard to conform to systematic play(s) at times. True way I calculate this system is everything based on same amount risk, whereas killersports (SDQL) calculates using risk on dog and to win amount for favorites being the same.
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
| Yesterday [1-0 +2u] Season [59-49 -6.48u] | |
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After a miserable run in February the system has heated up a bit...going 26-19 +29.35u since Feb 23 to get back close to even since the beginning. Unfortunately I lowered units and slightly wandered off flat bet style, else I would have been positive by now,
Oh well, everything has a pain threshold and I was near mine on Feb 23rd :rofl:
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
| Tuesday [1-1 +3.95u] Season [62-57 -22.79u] | |
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Last 14 days...these spots are over the total 72.4% but showed no profit on ML action. Not sure if there's any meaning here as all games in last 14 days are still 61.6% to over. Since I'm not very up on puck I can only guess the heavy schedule has led to more time for 2ns rate goalies?
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
| WEDNESDAY [2-2 +0.68u] SEASON [64-59 -24.29u] | |
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Huge day today as most every game qualifies.
One thing I have noticed is when the line is low, from +135 to -130 the homies are only 4-13 -40.43 units in MAR :shocked:
Same thing in FEB but a little better at 14-17 -22.23 units
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
| Yesterday [1-1 +1.1u] Season [71-64 -22.45u] | |
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Last edited:
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
| Yesterday [4-1 +6.14u] Season [75-65 -16.31u] | |
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Since FEB 1 closely lined games when home is from -130 to +140 results are crap. I normalized units to risk 1 per game although my units have bounced around from 2 to 5 risk...so this is more representative.
I'm down around 60 units on these particular games and up almost 30 on the rest.
| W | L | Units | |||||
| 20 | 32 | -14.75 | |||||
| DATE | LEAGUE | PLAY | TYPE | LINE | WAGER | TO WIN | RES |
| 2/1 | NHL | 44 Washington Capitals +130* vs Boston Bruins | ML | 130 | $100.00 | $130.00 | L |
| 2/1 | NHL | 48 New York Rangers -105* vs Pittsburgh Penguins | ML | -105 | $100.00 | $95.24 | W |
| 2/4 | NHL | 14 Columbus Blue Jackets +105* vs Dallas Stars | ML | 105 | $100.00 | $105.00 | W |
| 2/4 | NHL | 16 Winnipeg Jets +110* vs Calgary Flames | ML | 110 | $100.00 | $110.00 | W |
| 2/6 | NHL | 48 Anaheim Ducks -110* vs San Jose Sharks | ML | -110 | $100.00 | $90.91 | W |
| 2/8 | NHL | 66 Columbus Blue Jackets +130* vs Carolina Hurricanes | ML | 130 | $100.00 | $130.00 | W |
| 2/9 | NHL | 6 Washington Capitals +108* vs Philadelphia Flyers | ML | 108 | $100.00 | $108.00 | P |
| 2/11 | NHL | 50 Los Angeles Kings +103* vs San Jose Sharks | ML | 103 | $100.00 | $103.00 | W |
| 2/13 | NHL | 64 Arizona Coyotes +115* vs St. Louis Blues | ML | 115 | $100.00 | $115.00 | L |
| 2/13 | NHL | 68 Florida Panthers +130* vs Tampa Bay Lightning | ML | 130 | $100.00 | $130.00 | L |
| 2/13 | NHL | 4 Dallas Stars +108* vs Carolina Hurricanes | ML | 108 | $100.00 | $108.00 | L |
| 2/13 | NHL | 76 Chicago Blackhawks -105* vs Columbus Blue Jackets | ML | -105 | $100.00 | $95.24 | W |
| 2/13 | NHL | 78 Vancouver Canucks +120* vs Calgary Flames | ML | 120 | $100.00 | $120.00 | W |
| 2/16 | NHL | 24 Buffalo Sabres +110* vs New York Islanders | ML | 110 | $100.00 | $110.00 | L |
| 2/16 | NHL | 30 Pittsburgh Penguins -117* vs Washington Capitals | ML | -117 | $100.00 | $85.47 | L |
| 2/16 | NHL | 38 Vegas Golden Knights -106* vs Colorado Avalanche | ML | -106 | $100.00 | $94.34 | L |
| 2/17 | NHL | 42 Detroit Red Wings +118 | ML | 118 | $100.00 | $118.00 | L |
| 2/20 | NHL | 6 Pittsburgh Penguins -120* vs New York Islanders | ML | -120 | $100.00 | $83.33 | W |
| 2/20 | NHL | 12 Columbus Blue Jackets -125* vs Nashville Predators | ML | -125 | $100.00 | $80.00 | L |
| 2/20 | NHL | 22 Anaheim Ducks +120* vs Minnesota Wild | ML | 120 | $100.00 | $120.00 | L |
| 2/21 | NHL | 34 Vancouver Canucks -105* vs Winnipeg Jets | ML | -105 | $100.00 | $95.24 | L |
| 2/22 | NHL | 44 Colorado Avalanche -130* vs Vegas Golden Knights | ML | -130 | $100.00 | $76.92 | L |
| 2/22 | NHL | 80 Carolina Hurricanes +110* vs Tampa Bay Lightning | ML | 110 | $100.00 | $110.00 | L |
| 2/24 | NHL | 88 Florida Panthers -125* vs Dallas Stars | ML | -125 | $100.00 | $80.00 | L |
| 2/25 | NHL | 4 Florida Panthers -125* vs Dallas Stars | ML | -125 | $100.00 | $80.00 | W |
| 2/25 | NHL | 2 Columbus Blue Jackets -115* vs Chicago Blackhawks | ML | -115 | $100.00 | $86.96 | L |
| 2/25 | NHL | 8 Washington Capitals -106* vs Pittsburgh Penguins | ML | -106 | $100.00 | $94.34 | W |
| 2/25 | NHL | 20 Vancouver Canucks +126* vs Edmonton Oilers | ML | 126 | $100.00 | $126.00 | L |
| 2/27 | NHL | 54 Winnipeg Jets +105* vs Montreal Canadiens | ML | 105 | $100.00 | $105.00 | W |
| 2/28 | NHL | 60 Nashville Predators -121* vs Columbus Blue Jackets | ML | -121 | $100.00 | $82.64 | W |
| 2/28 | NHL | 64 New York Islanders -115* vs Pittsburgh Penguins | ML | -115 | $100.00 | $86.96 | W |
| 2/28 | NHL | 88 New Jersey Devils +121* vs Washington Capitals | ML | 121 | $100.00 | $121.00 | L |
| 3/1 | NHL | 80 Edmonton Oilers -105* vs Toronto Maple Leafs | ML | -105 | $100.00 | $95.24 | L |
| 3/1 | NHL | 72 Florida Panthers +105* vs Carolina Hurricanes | ML | 105 | $100.00 | $105.00 | L |
| 3/3 | NHL | 14 Edmonton Oilers -105* vs Toronto Maple Leafs | ML | -105 | $100.00 | $95.24 | L |
| 3/4 | NHL | 22 Pittsburgh Penguins +113* vs Philadelphia Flyers | ML | 113 | $100.00 | $113.00 | L |
| 3/6 | NHL | 4 New Jersey Devils +110* vs New York Rangers | ML | 110 | $100.00 | $110.00 | L |
| 3/6 | NHL | 6 Pittsburgh Penguins -105* vs Philadelphia Flyers | ML | -105 | $100.00 | $95.24 | W |
| 3/6 | NHL | 8 Nashville Predators +130* vs Florida Panthers | ML | 130 | $100.00 | $130.00 | L |
| 3/10 | NHL | 78 Vancouver Canucks +135* vs Montreal Canadiens | ML | 135 | $100.00 | $135.00 | L |
| 3/11 | NHL | 4 Columbus Blue Jackets +117* vs Florida Panthers | ML | 117 | $100.00 | $117.00 | L |
| 3/13 | NHL | 44 Calgary Flames -102* vs Montreal Canadiens | ML | -102 | $100.00 | $98.04 | W |
| 3/13 | NHL | 48 Philadelphia Flyers -113* vs Washington Capitals | ML | -113 | $100.00 | $88.50 | L |
| 3/14 | NHL | 62 Columbus Blue Jackets +110* vs Dallas Stars | ML | 110 | $100.00 | $110.00 | L |
| 3/16 | NHL | 22 Pittsburgh Penguins -106* vs Boston Bruins | ML | -106 | $100.00 | $94.34 | L |
| 3/17 | NHL | 36 Ottawa Senators +131* vs Vancouver Canucks | ML | 131 | $100.00 | $131.00 | L |
| 3/17 | NHL | 38 New York Rangers +115* vs Philadelphia Flyers | ML | 115 | $100.00 | $115.00 | W |
| 3/17 | NHL | 40 Winnipeg Jets +102* vs Montreal Canadiens | ML | 102 | $100.00 | $102.00 | W |
| 3/17 | NHL | 46 Calgary Flames -111* vs Edmonton Oilers | ML | -111 | $100.00 | $90.09 | L |
| 3/20 | NHL | 4 New Jersey Devils +138* vs Pittsburgh Penguins | ML | 138 | $100.00 | $138.00 | L |
| 3/20 | NHL | 28 Edmonton Oilers -130* vs Winnipeg Jets | ML | -130 | $100.00 | $76.92 | W |
| 3/24 | NHL | 80 Vancouver Canucks +120* vs Winnipeg Jets | ML | 120 | $100.00 | $120.00 | L |
| 3/25 | NHL | 16 Chicago Blackhawks +115* vs Florida Panthers | ML | 115 | $100.00 | $115.00 | W |
chipnotized
Bigger Slapper Than Al MacInnis
Just big faves and big dogs churning a profit?
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Over the last 55 days that’s the case. January was very good for tight lines, like 8-3 if memory serves me. So it’s up and down I guess.
chipnotized
Bigger Slapper Than Al MacInnis
Like a newlywed's nightie
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
| Yesterday [1-0 +1.58u] Season [76-65 -14.73u] | |
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Last 10 days this system has been excellent at 20-10 / +25.5% ROI, just figures that was about the time I reduced my unit per :shocked:
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
| SATURDAY [3-1 +4.95u] | |
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Been hot over last 2 weeks, even with my inconsistent unit allotment I'm 18-10 +19.14u over 2 weeks
Here's my plays over 2 weeks
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