B1G Week Zero/One...

It's odd to me that it has dropped and stayed below 14. Ryan Day's record in Big Ten games is very strong, they have history of reloading and Minny was a mess last year plus best WR (only really known name at WR) got nicked up in camp.
 
Purdue notes.....

I will say I don't have many thoughts yet on the -7/-7.5 against the Beavers as I haven't dug into them at all. If any PAC12 folks out there want to chime him that would be awesome.

2019....true year 1 IMO with Brohm's staff and recruits....ravaged by injuries (QB1, Rondale, Top 2 defensive players out for most of if not entire season). Massive depth issues across nearly all personnel groups.
2020....6 game covid season missing Karlaftis and Rondale for over half the games. Offense was "ok" and production was there enough to be better than 2-4 (Averaged 26.5 pts/game against B1G foes). Defense was a freaking disaster and I'm not sure I'll ever forgive Brohm for the hiring of Diaco and having to watch an undersized and outmanned defense play prevent defense for 60 minutes every week. Thankfully Diaco was fired minutes after the season officially concluded. Brad Lambert arrived from Marshall and promises to at least attempt to put a defense out there that has a fighting chance IMO given the personnel vs the Diaco disaster. While officially Lambert is "CO-Def Coordinator" with Mark Hagen (D'Line) and Ron English (Secondary) he will be the main guy and establishing scheme and making all the calls on gameday.

2021 -

- Rondale and Lorenzo Neal gone....other than that just about every bit of production from both sides of the ball are back (debatable on defense if that even matters or not)

Offense notes -
QBs
- I'm not sure there will ever not be a QB battle at Purdue but there is yet again in 2021. Plummer, AOC, and Burton (UCLA transfer) are all in the mix but I think it's pretty clear at this point that Plummer will get the first nod as he has the best arm of the bunch along with decent mobility which is key in this O. AOC is a gamer with a good arm but is an absolute statue back there. Burton has made big strides from everything I've read vs 2020 and is the best athlete of the 3 but isn't quite there with Plummer yet IMO. Nothing would surprise me though if Plummer starts off slow Brohm won't be shy letting one of the other 2 get a crack at it.

WRs
- Pretty easily the best and deepest position group on the roster even with Rondale gone. David Bell is probably the only notable "name" folks will likely recognize but he will be running with a with a few other talented wideouts (Wright, Rice, & Sheffield) along with Mr. steady Jackson Anthrop who was stuck behind Moore the past couple years along with injuries....the dude i think is in his 6th year but it feels like 16.

TEs
- Love this group. Top 3 are good enough to play in the B1G and given the top 2's talent I expect a good bit of 2 TE looks with Durham and Miller getting a lot of snaps and corresponding targets.

RBs
- Good hell what a disaster of a RB room unless the late transfer from Indiana (James Sampson) gets a miracle and becomes eligible. Horvath is solid and reliable to go with King Doerue but after that.....no depth at all. It will be make shift all year per normal with Brohm/Purdue at this position and lots of misdirection and getting the WRs involved in the running game. Especially if one of the top 2 go down.

O'Line
- Per normal health of this crew will be what makes or breaks the potential of this offense deep into the season. Some strides have been made to beef it up over the past couple years but by my math there are really just 7 linemen that I'd deem experienced and B1G quality. They are 7 the staff seems to really like but the depth here is the obvious big concern. That being said there is a lot of experience with those 7 and "if" healthy you can expect a step up from this crew vs 2020 and a big step up over 2019 when most of this crew were green as can be.

Defense
Secondary
- Some decent pieces here but with obvious depth concerns. It'll be a new much more aggressive scheme overall and at least the 1st team seems physical enough to handle. Clear depth concerns at corner more so than the other spots after Trice and Mackey. Purdue does have a transfer from Kentucky whom should (maybe I should say needs) to help. Good size and athleticism across the board for the 1st team.....lots of unknowns after that.

LBs
- Big blow already losing expected MLB (Fakasiieiki) for the season. A couple decent pieces left but this was already a shallow capable group. Alexander will take on the MLB role and should be capable but I'd feel a whole lot better if he were outside next to Faka. His time to shine though. Jalen Grahm should make a big step up doubling as SAM and nickleback. Another SEC transfer from Auburn (Brothers) has taken over the other starting role and I'm not sure will ever come off the field. He's been praised on the regular. Beyond that....it's not pretty....Big George K's little brother Yanni might have to get playing time as a true frosh likely before he's ready but it is what it is.

D'Line
- Karlaftis is a legit 1st round NFL talent beast and will anchor a much more aggressive front under Lambert and Hagen. LEO Mitchell will set the edge opposite #5 and is an athletic freak as well. It's been a while since Purdue's had 2 on the edge like these 2 and I'm generally optimistic about the type of havoc they can cause now with Lamberts aggressive schemes. There is size and experience on the inside as well with Deen and the NT Johnson but definitely not the top end talents that are on the outside. A couple other power 5 transfers are in the mix to hopefully provide a bit of depth but there's a clear gap between the top 4 here and the 2nd/3rd teams

Range of where I think the season could go here in a bit
 
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Purdue expectations

Current O/U is 5 and juiced to the over

Schedule I've got lumped into a few categories

The should wins - Oregon St, @UCONN, Illinois, Michigan St (although Purdue has been known to drop these types so 3-1 isn't out of the question)
The coin flips - Minny, @Neb, Indy

The hopefully surprise and maybe steal one but unlikely - @ND, @Iowa, Wisky, @NW

The no chance - @OSU

I see a lot of variance based on health per normal with a good deal of upside with a bit of luck. The biggest reason for optimism is clearly the new defensive approach along with a good bit of influx of transfer talent from the SEC on the defensive side of the ball to give at least some semblance of depth compared to years past.

Even if 2019 and 2020 are write-offs for many reasons this is a bit of a put up or shut up type of year for Brohm and company.

The O/U of 5 I think is spot on as I think they land 5-7 more often than any other number. Floor to me is 4-8 and Brohm gets put on the hot seat. A couple breaks and a top end of 7-5 is reasonable IMO but gun to my head I think Purdue sits 5-6 going into the bucket game with Indiana playing for a bowl game at the end of the year.

Definite reason for some optimism and some possibilities for a surprise or two but I'd take 6-6 and a bowl game in detroit or something awful and run with it. The special season in WL will be on the hardwood.
 
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My O/U's I've played (maybe off topic here but why not put all my thoughts preseason in one place)

biggest of the bunch is UCLA O7
Also have these
Oregon U9.5 (i'd still play it at the current number but for less.....this number is obv stale now)
G'Tech O4.5
Purdue O4.5 (Again just a number I grabbed at the time. I wouldn't play it at 5)
Troy O6.5
Indy U7.5 (I missed 8 but still grabbed a little here....schedule is brutal. 7-5 would still be a hell of a season)
 
I think I mentioned in my write up the mental health issues Omar Manning had last year. Sounds like he's having more issues. Not sure he's ever going to get it together enough to play a big role. This will hurt, because he is huge and has all of the talent in the world. WR now becomes another position of concern.
 
emg2525 said:
Nebraska -7 seems like one of those “just trust Vegas” lines, and you play the Huskers.
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I see 60% on Illini, opened at 9 and down to 7, not sure you have to trust anyone really, seems a common move. If you're really line reading, they should have left the hook on there, drop to 7 and not 7.5 seems like the "Vegas" factor doesn't play here.
 
KJ said:
I see 60% on Illini, opened at 9 and down to 7, not sure you have to trust anyone really, seems a common move. If you're really line reading, they should have left the hook on there, drop to 7 and not 7.5 seems like the "Vegas" factor doesn't play here.
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absolutely. I wasn’t getting overly analytical with my original statement, just seems like a lot of points (7, 9, etc) on the road with two poor teams involved.
 
emg2525 said:
absolutely. I wasn’t getting overly analytical with my original statement, just seems like a lot of points (7, 9, etc) on the road with two poor teams involved.
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I think for the most part it is saying these teams are the same as last year. Neb-16 home last year. Neb lost 5 turnovers and Illinois did outplay them. This line I think largely discredits the result from last year. Neb was DD fav at home last year vs ILL and would be again this year.
 
It's hot down there on the field. If rotation and depth becomes an issue, Nebraska should be in better position to handle that.
 
KJ said:
Has anyone at least checked in on Cub since yesterday? Even my mom is concerned.
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Meh, was at least a 30 or 40 percent chance that nothing has changed. Frost will either have to rebound to make a bowl or I think he'll be gone. New AD ain't going to tolerate much more of this shit.

There really is a sick pattern of a penalty being called against us any time we make a big play. INT, giving us a good chance to go up 10 or 14 in the second quarter, weak roughing the passer call. Long pass complete down two scores, offensive PI vs a defender nowhere near the WR. Long run by Martinez, holding on the center when he was completely in front of his man the entire play. Long pass to Illinois WR, appears to bobble it while still in play, reviewed, pass complete. Our punt returner tackled before he could insanely try to throw the ball, reviewed, safety confirmed somehow. And this happens basically every conference game to us for a decade now. We do a lot to beat ourselves but it's just hard to fathom the one sided calls (and especially when they are called) every single week.
 
Sparty isn't naming their QB yet, although the team knows (from what I can gather).

Most assume Russo, lotta their fans hope it is Thorne it seems...
 
Only shot Gophers will have is to run run run. They have the OL to do it - hell, this OL might be better than the Vikings OL but that's not saying much haha. Ibrahim is the best back in the conference IMO and likely in the top 3-5 in the country in terms of ability. QB regressed last year and WR group is not what it was 2 years ago. Autman-Bell still iffy and will be hobbled at best from what I'm hearing. They do have some young talent at that spot, but no real experience at this level so hard to say how they'll do.

Defense was absolutely dogshit last year and should improve through experience, but still not as deep or as stout as they need to be in the trenches. I've been toying with coming out of CFB wagering retirement to lay the wood with tOSU. I am concerned about it being week 1 and the potential trap when looking ahead to the Oregon game. Day said the other day they are not concerned with style points. I don't know, but on paper these are two very different teams but MN has played them tough on occasion. Heavy lean to laying the points here, especially under 2 TD's.
 
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Just sharing.....a local Purdue dude does a good job putting out a tale of the tape of sorts simply on size of personnel groups of each rosters along with a recruiting ranking based look position by position. Always interesting if you care about things like the other 5 of us about a OSU/Purdue night game in WL ;)

Taking a look at the size and experience of the Oregon State Lines and LBs and seeing how they match up against Purdue's equivalents. (Note: Purdue has not released a 2-deep for this week’s game so I’m making some educated guesses about personnel.) (Note#2 – A number of teams on this season’s schedule have already factored in the player’s extra year of eligibility. Where possible, I’ve not done so in order to try and get a truer picture of each team’s experience. Thus, my numbers may not always jibe with other sites however a Senior, 5th year and 6th year player all count the same) (Note #3 – As not every team has released a 2-deep, I have not done the normal comparisons to other B10 teams this week. Following everyone’s first game, that information should be available and comparisons will return at that time)

- Starting small. This week Purdue’s defense will face a Oregon State O-line which will the smallest line from a G5 team since Purdue faced MSU in 2018 coming in at 298.6 lbs. They return all 5 starter from last season, however as a group, they are still on the young size with an average of 2.8 years of experience. Collectively, they have a very good 82 career starts with the center accounting for 33 of those (some from his time in Arizona). Last season Iowa was the smallest, but OSU's is actually smaller.

- This week’s Purdue’s projected D-Line (Kalaftkis, Johnson, Dean, Mitchell) averages about 281.3 lbs, down 5.0lbs from last year’s 288.3 lbs due to missing Neal’s mass. They will be outweighed by the Oregon State line by about 17.3 lbs per man on average. Purdue’s average experience is 3.25 years, up a a half year to last year’s line. As a unit they have 35 collective starts.

- Purdue’s projected LBs (Graham, Alexander, Brothers) come in at 226.7 lbs, up slightly from last year and are at 3.00 years of experience, the same as last season even with the loss of Barnes. They have a collective 25 starts between them.

- Purdue’s projected O-line (Long, Holstege, Hartwig, Witt, Miller) will average 306.0 lbs per man, up by 5 lbs from last year’s 301.0 lbs. They average 3.00 years of experience, up nearly a half-year from last season’s 2.6 years. Collectively, they have a decent number of starts, in 69. Starting out last season, this group had a mere 36 starts 51 starts so Purdue should be in much better shape this season.

- Oregon State features a 3 man front so we’ve added in their largest OLB for comparison sake. At 293.0 lbs, they will be one of the larger groups Purdue will face this season and have an anchor in the middle who’s listed at 347lbs. However, they are relatively young with a 2.50 year average. They have three new starters this year. They’ll be outweighed by Purdue’s O-line by 13.0 lbs per man. As mentioned, they’re largely all new starters so they’ll have just 11 starts between them (one of the DE's, Sandberg, has 10 of those).

- The three remaining Oregon State LBs are a larger group at 237.33 lbs. They also have decent experience with 3.0 years at the position and the collective starts are at 52. It’s not quite like the 89 that Northwestern’s LBs had last season, but it’s very good. This group is very similar in terms of size and experience to Iowa’s group that Purdue opened up with last year.


Vegas predicts Purdue by 7.0 points (Opened up as Purdue by 5.5 points)

MasseyRatings predicts a 34-28 Purdue win

Sagarin predicts a 0.07 point Oregon State win (Don’t think I’ve ever seen this slim of a margin)

CollegeFootballPoll predicts a 3.29 Purdue win.

Compughter Ratings doesn’t have Purdue on their free site (and I'm too cheap to pay), but does have Oregon State and Nebraska. The site ranks Purdue at #72 while Nebraska is farther behind at #81. The outcome of that simulation is 36-29 Nebraska. Just sayin’.



For those of you who care about recruiting ratings, here are the starter’s Rivals ratings:

Purdue...........................Oregon State

QB Plummer 3*..............Noyer 3* (Colorado)

RB Horvath NR..............Baylor 2*

WR Wright 4*..................Flemings 3*

WR Bell 4*.........…...……..Bradford 3*

WR Sheffield 3*.............. Lindsey 4* (Nebraska)

TE Durham 3*.................Musgrave 3*

LT Long 2*...................….J Gray 3*

LG Witt 2*...................... Levengood 3*

C Hartwig 4*...................Eldrige 2* (Arizona)

RG Holstege 2*............. Keobounnam 2* (DT)

RT Miller 3*..................... Kipper 2* (Hawaii)


DE Mitchell 3*..................Anderson NR

DT Johnson 3*……..…..….Sio 2*

DT Dean 3*…...................Sandberg 3*

DE/LB Karlaftis 4*..........Gumbs 4* (Oklahoma)

LB Alexander 3*....…...... Roberts 4* (Nebraska)

LB Brothers 3* ……………Speights 3*

LB Graham 3*...…………..Hughes-Murray 3*

CB Trice 3*.........……........Austin 3*

CB Mackey 3*..................Wright 2*

FS Allen 3*......……….........Oladapo NR

SS Grant 4*.................…. Julian 3*
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I'd think Oregon St's biggest challenge will be in their secondary. Recruiting rankings show in Paintcrews copy of the analysis indicates such, although underrated guys can often play above that (just as highly rated guys can under perform).

Oregon St ILBs Speights and Roberts are thought highly of with in the conference.
 
These teams generally play in a lot of close games. Last year Purdue played 6 and Oregon St played 7. 10 of those combined 13 games were decided by 1 score.
 
cubsker said:
Meh, was at least a 30 or 40 percent chance that nothing has changed. Frost will either have to rebound to make a bowl or I think he'll be gone. New AD ain't going to tolerate much more of this shit.

There really is a sick pattern of a penalty being called against us any time we make a big play. INT, giving us a good chance to go up 10 or 14 in the second quarter, weak roughing the passer call. Long pass complete down two scores, offensive PI vs a defender nowhere near the WR. Long run by Martinez, holding on the center when he was completely in front of his man the entire play. Long pass to Illinois WR, appears to bobble it while still in play, reviewed, pass complete. Our punt returner tackled before he could insanely try to throw the ball, reviewed, safety confirmed somehow. And this happens basically every conference game to us for a decade now. We do a lot to beat ourselves but it's just hard to fathom the one sided calls (and especially when they are called) every single week.
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Thank you. I need this.
 
What's this I hear about Ohio State returning some of their unsold tickets? Odd.
 
s--k said:
What's this I hear about Ohio State returning some of their unsold tickets? Odd.
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Yeah, something around 850 tickets is what I recall hearing. Still some left as of tonight.

Might be some rain tomorrow night during the game. Not expecting a washout though and likely to be spotty if it does rain.
 
P-Unit said:
Yeah, something around 850 tickets is what I recall hearing. Still some left as of tonight.

Might be some rain tomorrow night during the game. Not expecting a washout though and likely to be spotty if it does rain.
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You goin?
 
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