B1G Week Zero/One...

B.A.R.

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Welcome back everyone!

First, lets compare our lines from July 15th to August 17th and we'll do the same as we approach gameday...


Nebraska -9 to -7/55.5

Rutgers -13 to 14/51

Ohio State -14 to 13.5/65

Northwestern -6.5 to 3.5/45

Michigan -16.5 to 17/67

Wisconsin -4 to -4.5/51.5

Maryland +4 to +3/55

Purdue -7.5 to -7/65

Iowa -4.5 to -3.5/47.5

Illinois -6 to -6.5/53


Nebraska and Illinois get us started in Week 0... then we get a nice mix of weeknight games into Saturday afternoon to start the season. Yours truly will be in attendance at Michigan-Western Michigan to get this season started...

Few quick hitters...then we'll let the thread evolve from there...

-Michigan State is a bit of a mystery with the most transfer portal players in the country I believe. Last I looked the QB battle between Thorne and Russo(Temple) was neck and neck.

-I believe CJ Stroud is going to be the starter at Ohio State

-Northwestern lost a few guys today, starting RB and an OL.

-The initial line move on MSU and NW was via a RAS release I believe a few weeks ago.

-Michigan starter is almost for sure McNamara. McCarthy has made a huge push in camp though.


As far as bets and whatnot for week one, I have the under (for now) in A2. That is all for the conference... lot of watching for me...Indiana seems like a solid play though...more to come as we get closer in...

Looing forward to Nebraska thoughts @cubsker -- Purdue thoughts @PaintCrew -- Michigan thoughts @HUNT --Penn State and Michigan thoughts @detroit187 --all around thoughts @VirginiaCavs and @s--k and some gophers thoughts @P-Unit

Alright, we are 10 days away from week 0...and just 15 days away from OSU and Minny!

Leggooooo
 
One I'm on a complete loop, gonna guess you know which it is

Possible look ahead and if they win, I don't like the next week nearly as much
 
My first thought was to lay the points with osu. I’m assuming(key word here) OSU d line will be strong which would negate gopher’s strong line and run game. No other real reasoning other than I thought the line might be around 17 without doing a ton of research, intriguing game though
 
survive&advance said:
My first thought was to lay the points with osu. I’m assuming(key word here) OSU d line will be strong which would negate gopher’s strong line and run game. No other real reasoning other than I thought the line might be around 17 without doing a ton of research, intriguing game though
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I don't like the bait they're hanging with 13.5 at all, seems like it should be hammered

Rather the team total
 
Here's what I have on Nebraska. Let's start with what should be the stronger of the two sides, the D.

Strength is the secondary. Cam Taylor is the standout at CB. Two 6th year returning starter seniors at safety should be at least solid, if not great. Newsome, Clark, or the Ohio St transfer Johnson at the other CB spot. Against teams not named Ohio St or Oklahoma, we should have the advantage here.

Three guys for two spots at ILB. I talked to the dad of one of them a couple of weeks ago and he said he couldn't rank them. His son, Heinrich, was the big name recruit who could have gone about anywhere. Reimer was a walk on who can really tackle. Kolarevic is a Northern Iowa transfer who led them in tackles a couple of times. Should be good here, as long as these three stay healthy. Depth behind them is shaky at best and if someone goes down, we're probably going to play the other two about every snap which can be dangerous over 12 games.

OLB - Domann is the standout. Plays some OLB, some nickel. Him and Taylor by far our two best players on D. The other spot has been a black hole for years. Payne is a guy who has made a little noise in practice, but I still see this spot as the weak link. Tanner and Nelson are bodies, but haven't done much on the field. Need to find a consistent pass rusher for this D to go to the next level. I still don't see it.

DL - might be about 8 deep on the DL. They've improved every year against the run under Frost and should be solid here again. If you watch the Iowa game from last year, we generally kicked the shit out of their all American center with Daniels and Thomas. Some big bodies that can hold up in this conference and the depth should be huge here. Would like to see better pass rushing from this crew as well, and that will be the difference between solid and great.

On to offense....

I generally have two concerns right now on this side of the ball. Might as well start with one, which is the elephant in the room named Martinez. He's slimmed down a bunch and should be a much more dangerous threat running the ball. This was apparent in the spring game even with the green jerseys. I was told by my source from above that he was making throws in practice (25 yard out routes) that he had never made previously. However, practice isn't a game and his decision making leaves a lot to be desired. Behind him.....woof. Smothers sounds like McCaffrey. Can run like the wind, but has no arm. Haarberg is a true frosh who played at a small high school in rural Nebraska. Huge arm and I would project him being our next starting QB, but class C-1 to the Big Ten is about as massive a jump as you can make. If Martinez gets hurt, the offense is going to be rough.

RB, no one proven here but there's some solid talent. Right now, I project Sevion Morrison as the starter. All purpose type of back from Oklahoma who put up huge high school numbers. Was out with covid and a couple other minor things last year. Stepp is the xfer from USC. Injury prone, but he can bang when he's in there. Gabe Irvin probably next, true frosh from what's probably the best high school program in Georgia. Was in for the spring and was probably the standout of the spring game.

On to WR, should be our most improved position even with losing Wandale. Toure was an FCS All American at Montana will take Wandales spot in the slot. Much bigger kid than wandale and I expect him to get drafted in April. Omar Manning appears to have his head on straight this year after a completely unproductive 2020 where I think he may have had covid and definitely had some mental health issues. Super talented kid and big. Hands are the issue here. Oliver Martin probably next. Made an impact last year after getting cleared by the NCAA halfway through the season. Flamed out at Michigan and Iowa, but I've heard nothing but positive things about him with us. Three or four others will regularly play, with Alante Brown the one I'm most excited about.

At TE, we have two guys that could play on Sundays. Austin Allen and Travis Vokolek. Both have missed time this fall, with TV's being the more serious injury of the two. He's the best blocking TE we have, so I'd look for our red zone struggles to continue if he's out.

OL, Corcoran slated to start at LT but he's been out most of fall camp with what I heard is a hamstring thing. This is my other major concern. Corcoran is the highest rated kid out of high school we have other than Johnson. If he can't go, Banks plays LT and I would be worried. Looks more like a guard to me. Benhart returns at RT - should be fine there for the most part. Jurgens at center - snapping the ball had been his issue for years now. If that's not fixed, then we're fucked. They say it is. Time will tell. Piper and Sichterman at the guard spots - serviceable. Hopefully, Piper takes the next step. Some solid depth behind these guys with Nouli who started as a true at Colo St before transferring and Hixson who has played a lot.

Special teams - we brought in like 8 different guys to try to find someone who can kick off. Culp was all conference FG kicker, so good there. Punter is a mystery, we return the kid from last year who was terrible and then have an Australian on scholarship who can kick it a mile but is inconsistent.

Frost had been open about why we've sucked the last three years. Beat ourselves with penalties, turnovers, and dogshit special teams. Doing special teams first at practice and really harping all camp on not beating themselves. If they can turn those things around and keep Martinez healthy, this can be an 8 win team. If not, it will be more of the same. Certainly the most depth we've had under Frost, the roster was rebuilt from the ground up from the shit show Riley left us with. I'll say 7-5, but the potential for 9 is there if everything clicks. If they lose the first one, it could go south quick and 4-8 is a possibility.
 
EL CAPO said:
i saw nw is starting hunter johnson at qb who was awful 2 years ago. I mean awful.
Click to expand...

He was really, really bad. Somebody on the husker board told me his mom had gotten cancer at that time, so maybe there's something more in the tank?
 
cubsker said:
He was really, really bad. Somebody on the husker board told me his mom had gotten cancer at that time, so maybe there's something more in the tank?
Click to expand...
2 years in college is a lifetime in the real world

Hard to put much into a couple years ago
 
Buckeye notes: We all know they are going to be really good and the class of the league again.

Offensively:
The OL should be rock solid...sounds like they may move Munford inside to guard and start a raw 6'9 third year guy (Dewuan Jones) at one of the tackles. Overall, I expect no issues out of the group. RB I would expect to see frosh Henderson win the job pretty quickly although I think we see a rotation in week one of Teague/Henderson/Williams. WR are best in the country...Olave/Wilson/Smith-Njigba/Fleming/Harrison/Egbuka probably is the rotation...TE Ruckert is a sleeper and could actually get 30 or 40 balls which is very rare at OSU. He's made some great one-handed catches in the past.
Big question mark is QB obviously. Looks like CJ Stroud is the starter...not sure what we see out of him but I expect him to have time in the pocket and some wide open WRs...Ewers has a long way to go but is the star in waiting and could be someone they throw in the fire for the playoff...depending on how Stroud and the others develop...Probably Kyle McCord is the second string guy at this moment...

Defensively:
DL should be beastly, Garrett is an All American, Vincent also plays inside and expecting Zach Harrison to blossom into Bosaesque DE this year...true freshman Jack Sawyer will probably be in the rotation...LBs is the big question mark here...I didn't think they got great LB play last year but Pete Warner was decent...probably start Mitchell, Craig Young, Gant or Pope...I think they will get tested in week one by Minny running game...I would run some misdirection, counters to try and fool them. This is probably the team's only true weakness as we are talking about all new starters.
CB were weak last year by OSU standards...looking at Seven Banks and Cam Brown to start outside with maybe Ransom or freshman Martinez as the slot corner. 6'3 late bloomer Ryan Watts could be a sleeper. Josh Proctor at single high safety, he should be much improved. I think the secondary will be better, Seven Banks could step up and be a true lockdown guy. This group is maybe not on par with some of the great secondaries of the recent past but plenty good enough....Australian punter likes to mix it up and two kickers battling for duty including last year's mostly good starter. Only two longsnappers on the roster so an injury here and we're down to a walk-on freshman (yikes)...

I think they roll Minnesota, but I do expect that Oregon's defense will be a true early test. Not sure that the BC transfer at QB for the Duckies can get it done in the Horseshoe though...I expect OSU to be undefeated until the playoff...QB development will be the true measure of how far they go in the postseason.
 
Last edited:
Marsski said:
Buckeye notes: We all know they are going to be really good and the class of the league again.

Offensively:
The OL should be rock solid...sounds like they may move Munford inside to guard and start a raw 6'9 third year guy (Dewuan Jones) at one of the tackles. Overall, I expect no issues out of the group. RB I would expect to see frosh Henderson win the job pretty quickly although I think we see a rotation in week one of Teague/Henderson/Williams. WR are best in the country...Olave/Wilson/Smith-Njigba/Fleming/Harrison/Egbuka probably is the rotation...TE Ruckert is a sleeper and could actually get 30 or 40 balls which is very rare at OSU. He's made some great one-handed catches in the past.
Big question mark is QB obviously. Looks like CJ Stroud is the starter...not sure what we see out of him but I expect him to have time in the pocket and some wide open WRs...Ewers has a long way to go but is the star in waiting and could be someone they throw in the fire for the playoff...depending on how Stroud and the others develop...Probably Kyle McCord is the second string guy at this moment...

Defensively:
DL should be beastly, Garrett is an All American, Vincent also plays inside and expecting Zach Harrison to blossom into Bosaesque DE this year...true freshman Jack Sawyer will probably be in the rotation...LBs is the big question mark here...I didn't think they got great LB play last year but Pete Warner was decent...probably start Mitchell, Craig Young, Gant or Pope...I think they will get tested in week one by Minny running game...I would run some misdirection, counters to try and fool them. This is probably the team's only true weakness.
CB were weak last year by OSU standards...looking at Seven Banks and Cam Brown to start outside with maybe Ransom or freshman Martinez as the slot corner. 6'3 late bloomer Ryan Watts could be a sleeper. Josh Proctor at single high safety, he should be much improved. I think the secondary will be better, Seven Banks could step up and be a true lockdown guy. This group is maybe not on par with some of the great secondaries of the recent past but plenty good enough....Australian punter likes to mix it up and two kickers battling for duty including last year's mostly good starter. Only two longsnappers on the roster so an injury here and we're down to a walk-on freshman (yikes)...

I think they roll Minnesota, but I do expect that Oregon's defense will be a true early test. Not sure that the BC transfer at QB for the Duckies can get it done in the Horseshoe though...I expect OSU to be undefeated until the playoff...QB development will be the true measure of how far they go in the postseason.
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I think Thompson will be the starter for the Ducks sooner than later, Brown doesn't appear to have IT
 
I've been debating OSU -210 to win conference.

They'll be much higher on ML for the championship game, one would think.

Number feels low. The danger game for them is Penix and Indiana, imo.
 
B.A.R. said:
I've been debating OSU -210 to win conference.

They'll be much higher on ML for the championship game, one would think.

Number feels low. The danger game for them is Penix and Indiana, imo.
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I hear you. But Bucks off a bye for that game and traditionally 40-50 percent of the crowd @ Indiana is OSU fans...maybe not this year???
 
Marsski said:
I hear you. But Bucks off a bye for that game and traditionally 40-50 percent of the crowd @ Indiana is OSU fans...maybe not this year???
Click to expand...
Yeah, maybe 30-40% now lol.

I'm just saying for capping purposes and a possible bet to win conference... That's the one that would concern myself. Last thing you want is a freaking tiebreaker.
 
B.A.R. said:
I've been debating OSU -210 to win conference.

They'll be much higher on ML for the championship game, one would think.

Number feels low. The danger game for them is Penix and Indiana, imo.
Click to expand...
OSU schedule is cake, the tough games are all at home other than IU and UM, seems manageable
 
KJ said:
OSU schedule is cake, the tough games are all at home other than IU and UM, seems manageable
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Any conference bet I take I'm basically wanting to get to championship game and go from there.

That's how I cap it.

Two years ago, that Clemson bet was free money. They've adjusted prices on them.

Now, we see a pretty low one here (albeit in a stronger conference).
 
@Nebraska seems like the classic letdown spot on the schedule but not sure Corn can compete even with OSU sleepwalking
 
B.A.R. said:
Any conference bet I take I'm basically wanting to get to championship game and go from there.

That's how I cap it.

Two years ago, that Clemson bet was free money. They've adjusted prices on them.

Now, we see a pretty low one here (albeit in a stronger conference).
Click to expand...
I simply can't look at futures much right now, too many ifs
 
KJ said:
Do 'ships still play if there's a forfeit?
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Yeah. Forfeit is a loss.

I don't forsee an OSU team with plenty of depth having to forfeit, but more importantly even with a mass outbreak their depth guys are still better than most of the conference.
 
B.A.R. said:
Yeah. Forfeit is a loss.

I don't forsee an OSU team with plenty of depth having to forfeit, but more importantly even with a mass outbreak their depth guys are still better than most of the conference.
Click to expand...
Not concerned about them, it's the others. If it counts as a win with the books, all good.
 
KJ said:
Not concerned about them, it's the others. If it counts as a win with the books, all good.
Click to expand...
Wouldn't a win via forfeit void a futures division, conference or win total bet?
 
s--k said:
Wouldn't a win via forfeit void a futures division, conference or win total bet?
Click to expand...
Yeah I'm on the same boat you are

Way too many ifs and discretion, wouldn't bet a future in CFB with my ex's money
 
s--k said:
Wouldn't a win via forfeit void a futures division, conference or win total bet?
Click to expand...
Do not believe so.

A win is a win in the standings.

I saw this written out a few weeks ago.

Last year, we had missed games.... there will be no missed games this year, only forfeits.
 
The line move in Northwestern-Michigan State seems appropriate from where it was (with or without recent NW injury news).

If the additions to the roster produce and the praise of some of the rFr guys come through then MSU winning that game wouldn't be any kind of surprise. NW still looks stronger in both trenches, but otherwise, I think MSU might be superior or even in other positions/categories. QBs question for both teams. I have to believe that a QB as talented as Johnson was in his 3rd year with a team has to be somewhat better now, right? Too bad for him the receiver and TE groups are pretty inexperienced and unknown. Would be nice for him if stronger receiving options were known. QB for MSU pretty big question as well, however, WR and TE for MSU should be pretty strong. I was definitely interested on the MSU ML when the odds were higher.
 
B.A.R. said:
Do not believe so.

A win is a win in the standings.

I saw this written out a few weeks ago.

Last year, we had missed games.... there will be no missed games this year, only forfeits.
Click to expand...

Might not void division or conference bets though, but all regular season win total bets say that all 12 games must be played?
 
s--k said:
Might not void division or conference bets though, but all regular season win total bets say that all 12 games must be played?
Click to expand...
Yes, that is always a part of it.

I'll find it, but many books already put their caveats out on that(I am almost sure they count it as w/l).

As far as the NCAA goes, a forfeit is a W/L.
 
The issue last year was tying money up knowing most likely a team wouldn't play all games.

That shouldn't be the issue this year.
 
B.A.R. said:
The issue last year was tying money up knowing most likely a team wouldn't play all games.

That shouldn't be the issue this year.
Click to expand...
But there will be forfeits thus games not played

Not sure that's debatable
 
I am aware of that.

As I said, I gotta find the articles on this. I know some Vegas books are doing it as no action on season win totals. I am not sure about some offshores etc.
 
Can't find confirmation, saw Illinois NG Roderick Perry and DE Jamal Woods as questionable for 8/28. Those are likely two of their three starting DL players. All B1G 2020 DE Owen Carney is now listed as OLB.
 
B.A.R. said:
I've been debating OSU -210 to win conference.

They'll be much higher on ML for the championship game, one would think.

Number feels low. The danger game for them is Penix and Indiana, imo.
Click to expand...
That’s a good number I think

Might join
 
I’m jumping ahead a bit but does Oregon have a shot vs Ohio St? They have been recruiting pretty well, not sure if they are there yet. QB still undecided?
 
twinkie13 said:
I’m jumping ahead a bit but does Oregon have a shot vs Ohio St? They have been recruiting pretty well, not sure if they are there yet. QB still undecided?
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Their QB will most likely be Brown. Later in the season it could be Thompson, but I can't see it being him here in week 2.

Oregon has the following questions I feel: is Brown good enough? Is Oregon interior DL good enough? What are the status of suspended DBs?

I do feel Ohio St D could be vulnerable and it's going to take new faces or new philosophy on their pass D to improve. I'm just not sure Brown has the skills to exploit it.

KJ warming up to Minny...I could see myself on the points with Gophers. But that is going to require some Fleck magic and a good game plan (Sanford Jr as OC does worry) plus proper execution. In summary, I think Minny might be better suited to challenge OSU's potential weaknesses on D even though Ducks are more talented at skill, I think Min might be able to actually do it better (Morgan>Brown). The Gopher D is going to be up against it, that's the biggest problem betting Minnesota.
 
Thompson should start the season as QB1 but he likely won't.

He's miles better than Brown...and Slough, gotta suck being QB in the Fiesta Bowl one year then third string next season
 
I know everyone is on pins and needles (lol) for Michigan thoughts...

I'll be completely honest and say this is going to be a wildcard to for me.

Once again, bad apples are seemingly gone. I've heard that before, and then we seen some more 'ripen' so-to-speak.

The biggest thing that happened was getting Don Brown out of town. I like Don, and he did some good stuff here but he is also stubborn as can be about the type of players he recruits and about not changing his system.

I love the Mike Hart hire. He is everything you would want in a coach and has been moving up the ranks the last few years. The mending of their relationship needed to happen and I am glad it did because this is a future HC and I would not be unhappy if UM was the one writing his checks at that time. With that being said, baby steps and see what happens.

John recommended McDonald to Jim. We'll see... I love how much more modern he is right off the bat. The Clinkscale hire feels like it has been a few years in the making. The guy has been taking Detroit kids for years, so that is even better to have him on the staff. Damn good coach.

Sticking with coaches, the key here is a cohesive bunch. Jim can hire good ones but there is always a few that just do not fit. He has hired too many guys who don't care to recruit and seem to rub guys wrong after a period of time.

As far as everyone's favorite, JH... everything points to him being rejuvenated. Rumors are his health is much better than it has been the last few years, especially the course of treatments and whatnot. He took the paycut and obviously the next two year really determines a lot. We're all just here for the ride.

Last year does nothing for me in capping this years team. They had multiple draft picks sit out or get hurt and were playing some interesting combos on defense along with a stubborn coordinator. Everything about that, was bad.

The UM summer / fall camps always are selling a lot of kool-aid so take anything with a grain of salt...

Few quick notes..


LB's look dayum good, much better than expected.

Hawkins, in his 9th year and Daxton might be the best safety combo in the league (granted if Dax doesn't have to shift to corner)

RB will be a position of strength. Hassaan is in great shape right now and runs hard. Corum should really have a nice 2nd season... Edwards,. a 5 star should get touches as well. He is the future, no doubt.

WR has talent, nothing groundbreaking but they have players. Bell is the leader. Johnson is the guy with star potential in my mind... Daylen Baldwin, the transfer, has been the best according to observers.

The corners scare me, but after last year and the Don Brown system, I have some bad memories.

The OL is adjusting to a new coach. I do not thing it will be bad, but more of an unknown at this point. This is more about the mix of guys...some very promising talent though...

DL is not very deep and is inconsistent. The recruiting here caught up to them. Hinton, Smith and Jeter are all very talented...but they need to be consistent.

TE is a position of strength.

We'll talk QB play next week...

7-5/9-3 is the range, IMO.
 
To add a few more thoughts..

I honestly do not know what the tempo will be like for Michigan. I feel they will run the ball more, especially in September as they get the young QB's comfortable. I think Hunt will pull his hair out at the non-modern offense by halftime vs WMU, hehe.

As far as the future.... the NIL is something this school should be able to elevate themselves with. The 'money cannon' is there and the boosters are able and willing... but the school itself is very leery and had very little planned for it's inception and are still moving at a snails pace with regards to NIL.

Good times...
 
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