B1G WEEK 8

HUNT

HUNT

CTG Partner
Staff member
Maryland/Wisconsin

Not a fan of Horny toad, this team will lose one they shouldn't.

Iowa/NW

I'd rather watch paint dry

Purdue/Rutgers

I'd rather watch paint dry

Illinois/Minnesota

I'd rather watch paint dry

Indiana/MSU

MSU will win, that's all I know.

Michigan/Penn State

Funeral in Happy Valley. PSU by 20+
 
I'll start getting into the game on Wednesday morning but to get some juices flowing...

UM 13-7 all-time (first game was '93 -- PSU first year in conference)

49-10 last year

Michigan won 2 years ago in Happy Valley against statue Hackenburg.



The first meeting... 1993...Michigan won 21-13 and this was the big moment



In the 1997 National Championship season this game here was what really got everyone believing. No one saw this blowout coming and also one of the hardest hits you will ever see...



The 2005 game, which made up for a bad year for Michigan...Mario!



1994 game #3 vs #5... best PSU team of my era...

 
HUNT said:
Maryland/Wisconsin

Not a fan of Horny toad, this team will lose one they shouldn't.

Iowa/NW

I'd rather watch paint dry

Purdue/Rutgers

I'd rather watch paint dry

Illinois/Minnesota

I'd rather watch paint dry

Indiana/MSU

MSU will win, that's all I know.

Michigan/Penn State

Funeral in Happy Valley. PSU by 20+
Click to expand...


Michigan Defense is that bad?

312 yards against Pitt, 370 against Indiana, 381 against NW. Why are they getting 450-500 on Michigan?
 
Definitely get in here in 10-12 hours...

But, UM-PSU total went from 43 to 40.5 now to 45

PSU down to 9.5 as well.

I feel like the total is some posturing...pure speculation obviously...

Keep the numbers around there though and I will be pretty happy.
 
This seems like one of those situations where if you like mich you have to pair it with the under...

The intangibles and emotional edges all scream PSU to me. And I have this as the biggest HFA for any game played this year. PSU whiteout's are no joke. Throwing o'korn into this situation would scare the absolute shit outta me if I were a UM backer.

Get down a score or two early and the crowd gets rolling then things could really snowball from there...

VK, I know you like mich here...would love to see your thought process either here or in your own thread. Thx.
 
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.my like for michigan is pretty straightforward. Gave up under 200 to psu last year and don't see much of a scheme change or change to psu talent to make me think that psu can succeed. Mich DL should blow up psu OL. I think mich has lost once by dd since start of the 2015 season. Mich D adjustments are arguably best in nation too. I think the 10 4th qtr pts by indiana last week were the first 4th qtr pts they had given up this year. So evwn of down dd 4th, and psu trying to secure the win with conservative ca)ls, i think I would get multiple opps at a backdoor cover with mich bad offense. Would think okorn gets mildly better in the offense each week and think they found a rb to ride last week.
 
What does last year's performance matter when mich has so many changes on defense?

Also not sure i trust o'korn achieving a backdoor cover.

Penn state's run D much more physical than indiana's i don't think you can make that comparison
 
They are #1 in total defense halfway through the year, though Cavs. Psu has failed to reach 400 yards in half of their games so far. So I wouldn't expect 400 here and the line of people who make a bunch of money laying dd on teams who don't rate to hit 400 on offense has to be pretty short
 
I don't trust mich offense or okorn for backdooor cover either ...i am just saying it is likely open in the scenario where psu is up 11-17 with 10 minutes to go. People cannot score on mich in the 4th even when they are trying to.
 
Another intangible I forgot to mention is that mich hasn't been a good road team. They left their state for 3 games last year and went 1-2 with their only win vs rutgers.

Agree with cavs that last year's defense doesn't really play into my consideration. PSU didn't get rolling until later in the year anyway.

I like mich's defense, I really do...but not fully sold yet based on their competition. The best offense they've played thus far is...florida? Indiana? now PSU hasn't tore it up on offense either this year but they have a balanced attack which could exploit an aggressive mich defense in ways which other teams haven't had the personnel to do yet thus far.

On a neutral field I think mich would maybe be able to turn this into a street brawl and keep it close with a smallish chance to win...but the game being played in HV changes things for me a lot.
 
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They certainly have not been great on the road.

I mean, they won at Michigan State last year in the MSU Super Bowl so that is another road win and obviously had the game to win at OSU. The game at Iowa was awful though.

The year before, a struggle at IU and Utah was the first game so who knows how to really look at that to be honest.

With any defense, it is tough to tell because the schedules are made so far in advance. You really cannot control what the teams in your conference do either. Michigan State is a Top-10 ranked defense right now but no one can believe that with a straight face. They are much improved but have yet to face an attack that can get to their weaknesses.

Happy Valley at night is no joke at all, obviously. The motivation needs to be squarely with the Nittany Lions. They got abused last year at UM and the year before UM controlled the game in Happy Valley. Barkley has looked horrid against Michigan in both games.

One thing I wait for, is the UM defense to break down in a game just due to the offense putting so much pressure on them. It will happen somewhere, sometime.

One blowout in the Harbaugh era was the first year vs OSU otherwise every loss has been by one score or less.

Michigan cannot fumble or throw picks. That will put them behind the 8 ball way too much to win this game. They will have to hit a few deep balls to keep PSU honest.

PSU can be run on. I am not saying 'run over' but you can move the ball on their defense via the ground.

Michigan obviously cannot have 16 penalties again. I still trying to figure out why the IU coach is complaining about officiating in a game his team had 11 less penalties in (scratches head).

From a Michigan POV...

My biggest fear is Barkley 'in space'. He doesn't concern me whatsoever in the tradtional running game. If they get creative with him that will be the biggest part of PSU O vs UM D.

My 1-A biggest fear is short fields due to turnovers. It simply cannot happen.

Back to the UM defense argument. There is no doubt that this defense is the best they have had in 11 years. Last year it was dayum good but this team has more speed and another year in Browns system. His halftime adjustments are outstanding. Now, I'd rather not get beat by something stupid a few times early on before they adjust though.

Sorry for rambling, shorter on time than anticipated today...

My quick thinking as of now for this game...not much different than what I thought months ago...this is a GREAT spot for PSU...and they have double-revenge. Even without the UM offensive clusterfuck that has surfaced I think this was going to be a tough one to win...

I'll go with something like 13-6 at halftime...and 23-16 final...maybe 24-14.

Like VK said, kinda dumb here to lay double-digits in a game where plays/yardage/points should be at a premium. Both teams expected totals could go higher with turnovers, obviously.

Two good defenses, a good ole B1G football matchup.
 
The Saquon argument gets brought up a lot. He is a wonderful player in space who is an average runner in the traditonal aspect. Obviously the narrative for his Heisman campaign was set early by ESPN etc. That is just how things work. As Kyle said, when you start seeing them talk return yards etc they are trying to push something...

Much like a Barry many moons ago in the pros he is one that will do nothing all game then bust a big run to help the team and make his numbers look 'normal'.

The Iowa game he carried them to a win...

The other games:

Akron 14-172 with an 80 yard run (13-92 otherwise)

Pittsburgh 14-88

Georgia State 10-47 with a 33 yard run (so 9-14 otherwise)

Indiana 20-56 (longest run all game was 8, odd)

N'Western 16-75 with a 53 yard run (so 15-22 otherwise).


Big plays, pedestrian otherwise in the running game...

If you take away the Iowa amazing game and his 3 huge runs...you get 71 carries for 272 yards (3.83 ypc).

He obviously does really good things out of the backfield and in return game.
 
So, basically, keep him away from big plays...and keep ball out of his hands in return game...

James Foug- UM

Google him, he is unreal with hang-time on kickoffs which is a huge asset against great returners and starting field position for the other team.
 
Big questions for UM this week..?

-Will they 'feed the pig'? I mean that by staying with one guy at RB for the majority of the carries instead of once one gets rolling going with another.

-Do they panic down 10-14 points and get away from gameplan? I am not a huge fan of this style of team not playing with lead or close to it.

-Playcalling is always odd with this bunch.

-Use your Tight Ends and use the middle of the field!

-JOK turnovers

-Penalties

-Night game/white out enviroment



They will need to play a damn good game to win. All facets. I do not personally see it but funnier things have happened. I need an ugly ass 13-9 type of game here lol.
 
B.A.R. said:
-Penalties
Click to expand...
B.A.R. said:
Michigan obviously cannot have 16 penalties again. I still trying to figure out why the IU coach is complaining about officiating in a game his team had 11 less penalties in (scratches head).
Click to expand...

What was the nature of the penalties last week? Michigan had 11 penalties in the first half vs Indiana last week. They had 35 in the previous 5 games combined. Ended the game with 16 for 141 yards! What was up with that?
 
The more I thought Michigan could win this game the more I think we are headed for a beat down like Iowa received last year there. We come in reeling on offense and this ennvironment is going to be abslolutely insane with revenge on the minds of every Nittany freak there.

PSU has put out the press clippings about the 49-10 beatdown and how Michigan just ran the same plays over and over and over laughing. If PSU o line does just a decent job Barkley romps and this could be 49-10 the other way before we know it. BUT...Michigan defense is good enough to keep us in any game and PSU has some holes in the armor that have not been exposed yet, namely their O line. PSU got a bye at the perfect time for not only this game but the rest of the season being right in the middle of their schedule. They knew they would coast through the first half of the season and know the next 3 games get them to where they want to be. If they are smart they use Barkley in space throwing him the ball cuz i doubt the o line can protect him otherwise.

I'll take the points of course but i have got a funny feeling about the public dog getting smacked down here for as Hunt described their funeral. We will have to be flawless basically to win and it only happens winning turnover battle and getting great field position.

PSU has not allowed a single point in the first OR third quarter of a game this year I saw. Insane.
 
LJ Scott got arrested for his 7th driving on a suspended license on Wednesday.

7th.

21 years old.
 
C-MAN said:
PSU only 2-4 SU L6 whiteout games. Both wins were by a fg
Click to expand...


How often do they do it, or what games are in this last 6?
PFF_College
 
Once a year since 2004...6-7 all time

Beaver Stadium • University Park, PA ABC L 11–27 107,846
October 27, 2012 8:00 PM #9 Ohio State Buckeyes

Beaver Stadium • University Park, PA ABC L 23–35 107,818
October 13, 2013 5:00 PM #18 Michigan Wolvereines

Beaver Stadium • University Park, PA ESPN W 43–40 (4 OT) 107,884
October 25, 2014 8:00 PM #13 Ohio State Buckeyes

Beaver Stadium • University Park, PA ABC L 24–31 (2 OT) 107,895
November 21, 2015 12:00 PM #14 Michigan Wolvereines

Beaver Stadium • University Park, PA ABC L 16–28 107,418
October 22, 2016 8:00 PM #2 Ohio State Buckeyes

Beaver Stadium • University Park, PA ABC W 24–21 107,280
October 21, 2017 7:30 PM #19 Michigan Wolverines
 
Pro Football Focus says that Saquon Barkley has forced 30 missed tackles this year (2nd in B1G, not sure who is #1). Last season Barkley forced just 1 missed tkl vs Michigan.
 
That is interesting about the whiteout record. All the media people make is sound like Penn St is invincible or something when they do that.
 
s--k said:
Pro Football Focus says that Saquon Barkley has forced 30 missed tackles this year (2nd in B1G, not sure who is #1). Last season Barkley forced just 1 missed tkl vs Michigan.
Click to expand...

Gotta be Taylor or Dobbins...

In other news I heard on TV today that Barkley has already wrapped up the Heisman.

Congrats.
 
C-MAN said:
Once a year since 2004...6-7 all time

Beaver Stadium • University Park, PA ABC L 11–27 107,846
October 27, 2012 8:00 PM #9 Ohio State Buckeyes

Beaver Stadium • University Park, PA ABC L 23–35 107,818
October 13, 2013 5:00 PM #18 Michigan Wolvereines

Beaver Stadium • University Park, PA ESPN W 43–40 (4 OT) 107,884 THIS GAME WAS AGAINST MICHIGAN
October 25, 2014 8:00 PM #13 Ohio State Buckeyes

Beaver Stadium • University Park, PA ABC L 24–31 (2 OT) 107,895 THIS GAME WAS AGAINST OHIO ST
November 21, 2015 12:00 PM #14 Michigan Wolvereines

Beaver Stadium • University Park, PA ABC L 16–28 107,418 PSU WON THIS GAME DIDNT THEY?
October 22, 2016 8:00 PM #2 Ohio State Buckeyes

Beaver Stadium • University Park, PA ABC W 24–21 107,280 THIS GAME HASNT BEEN PLAYED YET
October 21, 2017 7:30 PM #19 Michigan Wolverines
Click to expand...
 
Hard to compare sanction years PSU 2012-2015 with 40 scholarship players to this squad. They white out every night game so besides OSU last year could add Iowa beat down. They also did a white out for Georgia St this year as it was at night. I don't know who or what qualifies as an official white out there.
 
detroit187 said:
Hard to compare sanction years PSU 2012-2015 with 40 scholarship players to this squad. They white out every night game so besides OSU last year could add Iowa beat down. They also did a white out for Georgia St this year as it was at night. I don't know who or what qualifies as an official white out there.
Click to expand...

"It was a night game, a ‘White Out’ and it’s cold. They tabbed it ‘Judgment Day.’" — Chris Howard




1997
 
That list has 2014 OSU as a "W" which it wasn't haha. I'm too lazy to fact check the rest.

PSU has had some lean years since sandusky/paterno so I dunno how much of a trend we can establish off this.

It's merely a raucous HFA...not a magic bullet or a guaranteed spread cover, of course.
 
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AliShaheed said:
That list has 2014 OSU as a "W" which it wasn't haha. I'm too lazy to fact check the rest.

PSU has had some lean years since sandusky/paterno so I dunno how much of a trend we can establish off this.

It's a raucous HFA...not a magic bullet or a guaranteed spread cover, of course.
Click to expand...

It threw me off too, took me a while to see, the spacing is off, but the result is under the date (separated by a space). So the 2014 game does show a correct 24-31 loss.
 
they beat the shit out of us at night in like 02 or 03 - loudest i ever remember hearing a game on tv though that's probably more of a production issue than anything.
 
VK, PSU will operate on short fields all night. JOK is THAT bad.

Plus, PSU secondary is one of the best at getting turnovers.

GL.
 
I am not saying PSU might not hammer them. They could. I am just saying that you cannot find it in the numbers, you have to find it with the circumstances. The ytd statistics make this line seem almost ridiculous, if we didn't know better.

In any event, I at least think it will be a good game to watch if you like football
 
They aren't in the numbers..most of PSU's games this year aren't "in the numbers" yet they are undefeated and have put up some points in a few games.

The better qb and offense wins..that simple..defense about even..just because Michigan's will be on the field all night, and on the road.

No qb, no cover, no win. JOK will have a minimum of 3 turnovers but will score a perfect 10 in dance moves.
 
Is speight injured or is o'korn the preferred qb right now?

also, is don brown a HC candidate after this season? he's certainly proven his worth as DC but I don't know of his HC aspirations. not sure of his age but he looks kinda old...maybe too old for a program to invest in him as a HC?
 
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