B1G Week #7...

B.A.R.

B.A.R.

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October is in full swing, and things start to get serious now. The next few weeks should tell us who will be in the hunt for a playoff spot and who will not. There is an interesting aspect to watch around the country as teams fall out of the race and players might hang it up for the season. We all might do well to look at some November GOY lines and grab some value there.

Last week thoughts...

Oregon and Michigan State falls into the 'misleading' finals category. Michigan State had 65 yards of offense from their second possession until their final two tries in garbage time. Gabriel tossed two picks as the Ducks were going into score. The reality of this game was more like 42-10 than this final. Chiles continues to regress a bit. Part of that could be his offensive line has regressed to what many thought they would be. On the flip, Dillon needs to clean up the miscues, quickly.
The Ohio State game went like I thought it would with more points in the 2h as the Iowa defense tired a bit. The Buckeyes did a bit better on the ground than expected and fared a bit less than I forecasted through the air. Solid win in a lookahead situation.

UCLA isn't good, but they certainly play hard out there. Credit to Foster. Penn State had a brutal running game. Yes, there is a bigger game coming this week, and that can qualify as a sleepwalk, but they have not been as convincing as they should be for a team of their stature.

Listen I am wrong a lot, but I wasn't wrong on USC. I saw way too many people putting this squad in the playoff after two weeks. Slow the roll. This is still a USC, they have defensive issues and have now lost to multiple bad offenses in conference play. They ran the ball well, as Minnesota tends to allow vs P4/5 teams. But, Moss had probably his worst effort all year. Max game managed well and Minny snags a nice win.

The Hoosiers continue to impress. I mentioned the offense a few weeks ago -- had that in my head Saturday to just play the TT -- never did. The value is sucking away now in those regards. Nearly 550 yards of offense is no fluke. Maybe Nov 23rd will have consequences?? This coming week will be huge.

Wisconsin scored 52 points. That tells you what is happening with Purdue right now. Ouch.

An old-style score between Rutgers and Nebraska. Nice win for the Huskers and probably a good learning experience for Mini-Mahomes vs the best defense they have faced so far.

Washington won the rematch vs Michigan. My fear of the passing game being a problem on both sides was evident early on. Tuttle was expected back after the bye week but they simply had to do something here. I said before the year the QB situation would be an issue and it has certainly been even worse than expected. Tuttle will do a good job, but this season is shot. Too bad, too much talent on defense for this...
 
More on Michigan...

We knew the QB and WR issues heading into the season. There are many layers to this but unfortunately, this is what we have. Hey, winning the title was great last year but the portal setup is brutal for playoff teams. Nonetheless, as good as they coached up guys and as good as they recruited at every other position -- QB and WR had a lull. A big part of that was the offense. The other big part is/was NIL.

The disappointment is the defense. I didn't like the Wink hire at first. I relented a bit during the spring and summer and started to hate it again after the Texas game. Both first halves vs USC and Minnesota were great, then each 2nd half was a near disaster on that end. His system isn't made for college, imo. He is stubborn. This feels like Don Brown all over again.

You have 3 first-round picks and plenty of talented kids back there but past the front 4 many of them look lost and make mistakes.

Back to the QB position -- even Washington said they had to change their gameplan once Tuttle was in. Hopefully for him he can stay healthy. You cannot hate on a long-time college QB that has won some games in the Big 10.

I do fear that this team will start to lose these 1st round picks to sitting out by November. We'll see. These guys turned down more money to stay, they are high character guys. That is a fleeting thought though...
 
Onto this coming week...

Leaning Iowa ML heavily...

Leaning toward Rutgers ML as well, might be even better play than Iowa...

In previous threads, I've mentioned I like PSU to win and the TT was of interest. I will say, this surge in the line is not what I had hoped. Linesmakers starting to truly understand USC finally. Wait and see here...

Purdue TT under is likely a play... only concern is the lookahead...

No opinion out west at UCLA...

Obviously #2 and #3 face off in Eugene. This should be great! We'll cap that one more in the thread! No leans right now. Gun to head, OSU ML as Dillon's turnovers concern me...
 
Good stuff, BAR.

Lean Iowa and under, thinking maybe UW TT under. It'll be north of 17 and I don't think the Huskies will get that against Iowa.

Lean Rutgers and under vs Wisky, thinking maybe 1H under (opened 19' at my outs, unfortunately). One thing worth noting, as bad as Rutgers looked on offense in Lincoln, it wasn't all personnel/scheme. It was actually also weather-related (97 degrees with ridiculous winds). Quote from Schiano: “Iʼve been doing this 37 years. Iʼve not been in conditions like we were today, Usually, if you have a wind like that, itʼs a storm, some kind of hurricane, tropical storm.”

Was planning to pass on Boilers/Illini but Purdue TT under is a good idea, one I hadn't considered.

Lean USC but passing even if it gets to +6. Can understand the interest in PSU TT and at the same time I'd expected to be much more sold on their offense now than I am. I'm sure Franklin and Kotelnicki have been holding some things back for the more challenging games on the schedule, but still surprised at non-covers vs Illinois and UCLA, and those weren't the fault of the defense.

Would be interested in UCLA if I could get +6. Minny in a major letdown spot off upset of USC and not sure they are a team I could be confident winning by a TD on the road even against a bad UCLA team (which, you correctly noted, at least hasn't quit).

Actually like under in OSU/Oregon but will pass and just play that on the emotional ML.
 
I'm headed to Eugene tomorrow. I make it -2 so hard to bite on the Bucks although starting to see flat 3s so myabe a 2.5 shows up?
I just think it comes down to which QB makes fewer mistakes and can Oregon stop OSU's run? Boise ran all over them and OSU has a superb duo and good run blocking. I was worried about OSU's OL a little but they looked steady vs Iowa...lean to Over as well as this could easily be a shootout or OT scenario IMO
 
Marsski said:
I'm headed to Eugene tomorrow. I make it -2 so hard to bite on the Bucks although starting to see flat 3s so myabe a 2.5 shows up?
I just think it comes down to which QB makes fewer mistakes and can Oregon stop OSU's run? Boise ran all over them and OSU has a superb duo and good run blocking. I was worried about OSU's OL a little but they looked steady vs Iowa...lean to Over as well as this could easily be a shootout or OT scenario IMO
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Any MAC stuff from you this week?
 
Lot of good situations in the big ten

Washington and Minny are traveling and both have huge letdown potential

USC plays better at home- at 6 or more, it might be a play. Still don’t trust Franklin

Wisky/rutgers is sneaky good as well
 
Rusty Trombone said:
Any MAC stuff from you this week?
Click to expand...
Gonna have time in transit tomorrow to drill down but nothing really stood out off the bat MAC-wise.
I know Bert Emanuel is back for the chips and they are at home so that game is a pass for me since I’m a homer Bobcats fan. Would take an Emanuel rush prop bet over though.
Mizzou laying the lumber at UMass could be a play.
Miami Oh unders are 4-1 so could only have under 46.5 or EMU ml at home there.
I have a MAC Champs Future position on N Illinois at +800 so need a win at BG. But BG has been playing good so may just let the ticket ride.
Yeah, not too much really….but I may find a few bets.
 
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Marsski said:
Gonna have time in transit tomorrow to drill down but nothing really stood out off the bat MAC-wise.
I know Bert Emanuel is back for the chips and they are at home so that game is a pass for me since I’m a homer Bobcats fan. Would take an Emanuel rush prop bet over though.
Mizzou laying the lumber at UMass could be a play.
Miami Oh unders are 4-1 so could only have under 46.5 or EMU ml at home there.
I have a MAC Future position on N Illinois at +800 so need a win at BG. But BG has been playing good so may just let the ticket ride.
Yeah, not too much really….but I may find a few bets.
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If Missouri cares at all, that’s a 49-0 game to get right if I’ve ever seen one
 
B.A.R. said:
Onto this coming week...

Leaning Iowa ML heavily...

Leaning toward Rutgers ML as well, might be even better play than Iowa...

In previous threads, I've mentioned I like PSU to win and the TT was of interest. I will say, this surge in the line is not what I had hoped. Linesmakers starting to truly understand USC finally. Wait and see here...

Purdue TT under is likely a play... only concern is the lookahead...

No opinion out west at UCLA...

Obviously #2 and #3 face off in Eugene. This should be great! We'll cap that one more in the thread! No leans right now. Gun to head, OSU ML as Dillon's turnovers concern me...
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You got me into PSU team totals for this week.

I will admit I thought USC would not lose any more than 1 game maybe after Michigan. Was off on them as they could potentially lose 4-5 games this year.
 
HUNT said:
You got me into PSU team totals for this week.

I will admit I thought USC would not lose any more than 1 game maybe after Michigan. Was off on them as they could potentially lose 4-5 games this year.
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I know a few of you guys were high on USC. I couldn't buy in.

Rewatch the opener in Vegas -- misleading as far as points given up.

Utah State, who cares?

The line flip was out of hand in A2.

Wisconsin is bad enough that we had a great 2h spot there for the Trojans.

I wasn't expecting outright loss past game but shouldn't be a surprise. I wish they had won though for this week.

I do think we see a crisp PSU performance this week -- they need some competition I think.

SC was a popular RSW under before the season. I don't think many saw them past 7-8 wins. That first game vs LSU skewed a lot of thoughts.

Anyways, I respect Miller. Good QB. The coach is highly overrated and while the Lynn hire was an upgrade nothing happens overnight.

This is also the most physical stretch SC has undergone in years. That's an adjustment.
 
B.A.R. said:
I know a few of you guys were high on USC. I couldn't buy in.

Rewatch the opener in Vegas -- misleading as far as points given up.

Utah State, who cares?

The line flip was out of hand in A2.

Wisconsin is bad enough that we had a great 2h spot there for the Trojans.

I wasn't expecting outright loss past game but shouldn't be a surprise. I wish they had won though for this week.

I do think we see a crisp PSU performance this week -- they need some competition I think.

SC was a popular RSW under before the season. I don't think many saw them past 7-8 wins. That first game vs LSU skewed a lot of thoughts.

Anyways, I respect Miller. Good QB. The coach is highly overrated and while the Lynn hire was an upgrade nothing happens overnight.

This is also the most physical stretch SC has undergone in years. That's an adjustment.
Click to expand...

Spot on. Agree with all of this.
 
If Oregon doesn't turn the ball over in the red zone they are winning the previous last few weeks in the 50-10 range. Boise has probably the best running back in the country. I think this game is closer than people think and can see a tight game go either way. Both defenses are solid imo. Oregon turns the ball over too much for me to back them though... Ohio State hasn't faced a good offense yet. We'll see.

Honestly, think Iowa is a little over hyped. McNamara looked awful and was replaced last week. Johnson can run on anyone but Washington is pretty solid against the run. Jedd Fisch is a great coach. They might be hung over for a minute but Will Rogers is a solid vet QB. Probably a stay away game for me at least.
 
B.A.R. said:
More on Michigan...

We knew the QB and WR issues heading into the season. There are many layers to this but unfortunately, this is what we have. Hey, winning the title was great last year but the portal setup is brutal for playoff teams. Nonetheless, as good as they coached up guys and as good as they recruited at every other position -- QB and WR had a lull. A big part of that was the offense. The other big part is/was NIL.

The disappointment is the defense. I didn't like the Wink hire at first. I relented a bit during the spring and summer and started to hate it again after the Texas game. Both first halves vs USC and Minnesota were great, then each 2nd half was a near disaster on that end. His system isn't made for college, imo. He is stubborn. This feels like Don Brown all over again.

You have 3 first-round picks and plenty of talented kids back there but past the front 4 many of them look lost and make mistakes.

Back to the QB position -- even Washington said they had to change their gameplan once Tuttle was in. Hopefully for him he can stay healthy. You cannot hate on a long-time college QB that has won some games in the Big 10.

I do fear that this team will start to lose these 1st round picks to sitting out by November. We'll see. These guys turned down more money to stay, they are high character guys. That is a fleeting thought though...
Click to expand...

I have the same fears you do and honestly it's okay with me. Need a fresh start. Been too much drama the last 8 months. Alex Orji might be the worst Michigan QB I've ever seen in my life and that includes Threet and Sheridan. He is awful.

Wink blitzes and is reckless way too much. Teams are exposing it more and more each week. Kirk Campbell has been a huge disappointment as well. Not impressed at all by the staff and the way the guys play. They just don't look very in sync out there.
 
B.A.R. said:
I know a few of you guys were high on USC. I couldn't buy in.

Rewatch the opener in Vegas -- misleading as far as points given up.

Utah State, who cares?

The line flip was out of hand in A2.

Wisconsin is bad enough that we had a great 2h spot there for the Trojans.

I wasn't expecting outright loss past game but shouldn't be a surprise. I wish they had won though for this week.

I do think we see a crisp PSU performance this week -- they need some competition I think.

SC was a popular RSW under before the season. I don't think many saw them past 7-8 wins. That first game vs LSU skewed a lot of thoughts.

Anyways, I respect Miller. Good QB. The coach is highly overrated and while the Lynn hire was an upgrade nothing happens overnight.

This is also the most physical stretch SC has undergone in years. That's an adjustment.
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Yeah i tailed someone i played them under 7.5. In retrospect dumb. 8.5 should be # going 7 5 pretty bad. After lsu and in 4q at A2 thought was for sure loser. But a little hope now that Rutgers or Maryland can get em too. Still think they go 8 4.
 
I haven’t been able to confirm it but plenty of noise that Hudson Card is out for Purdue. At a minimum even without the noise Walters on his radio show where he got abused said “you will see Browne a lot”. Ryan Browne is much more of a running QB without much of an arm and has seen little action.

Feels like the line moved somewhat appropriately from 19 to now 22 or so but I’ve heard enough this week from Walters…he has lost this bunch and is spiraling.

If it drops back to 21 or below lay it but if not…lay it anyway.
 
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PaintCrew said:
I haven’t been able to confirm it but plenty of noise that Hudson Card is out for Purdue. At a minimum even without the noise Walters on his radio show where he got abused said “you will see Browne a lot”. Ryan Browne is much more of a running QB without much of an arm and has seen little action.

Feels like the line moved somewhat appropriately from 19 to now 22 or so but I’ve heard enough this week from Walters…he has lost this bunch and is spiraling.

If it drops back to 21 or below lay it but if not…lay it anyway.
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Thinking about the under 48 here. Illinois has Michigan on deck so probably has one eye on that. No way for market to account for change in Boiler pace due to OC change and now QB? And Illinois already plays slow. Purdue O isn't expected to get much at all and 30-10 seems like a reasonable result. Unlike last week, which was a get right spot for Wisky, Illinois doesn't have to get right.
 
I just see USC as a 7-5 B1G team with Riley. As constructed I don't see them being anything better than a middle of the pack program.

I think he wanted no part of the SEC when he was at OU and left. I think he wants no part of the B1G. That's my hot take.
 
BiffTFinancial said:
Thinking about the under 48 here. Illinois has Michigan on deck so probably has one eye on that. No way for market to account for change in Boiler pace due to OC change and now QB? And Illinois already plays slow. Purdue O isn't expected to get much at all and 30-10 seems like a reasonable result. Unlike last week, which was a get right spot for Wisky, Illinois doesn't have to get right.
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Right idea here imo.
 
BiffTFinancial said:
Thinking about the under 48 here. Illinois has Michigan on deck so probably has one eye on that. No way for market to account for change in Boiler pace due to OC change and now QB? And Illinois already plays slow. Purdue O isn't expected to get much at all and 30-10 seems like a reasonable result. Unlike last week, which was a get right spot for Wisky, Illinois doesn't have to get right.
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Illinois off a bye and off of a loss to Penn st against his former defensive coordinator who raided his coaching staff and also put one on Bert to the tune of 44-19 last year.

Walters also snagged a few transfers as well and even came and picked up Hudson Card from the Illini football facility 2 years ago during his recruitment right out from under Bert and drove him in his personal car from there to west Lafayette to close that deal.

I think Illini have all the motivation in the world to make this as ugly as possible
 
PaintCrew said:
Illinois off a bye and off of a loss to Penn st against his former defensive coordinator who raided his coaching staff and also put one on Bert to the tune of 44-19 last year.

Walters also snagged a few transfers as well and even came and picked up Hudson Card from the Illini football facility 2 years ago during his recruitment right out from under Bert and drove him in his personal car from there to west Lafayette to close that deal.

I think Illini have all the motivation in the world to make this as ugly as possible
Click to expand...
Great stuff, thanks for the thoughts. Purdue TT under or nothing, I’ll stay far away from having to root against Illini O.
 
CPA-hole said:
I just see USC as a 7-5 B1G team with Riley. As constructed I don't see them being anything better than a middle of the pack program.

I think he wanted no part of the SEC when he was at OU and left. I think he wants no part of the B1G. That's my hot take.
Click to expand...
SC down to +3.5 is a bit surprising here
 
PaintCrew said:
I haven’t been able to confirm it but plenty of noise that Hudson Card is out for Purdue. At a minimum even without the noise Walters on his radio show where he got abused said “you will see Browne a lot”. Ryan Browne is much more of a running QB without much of an arm and has seen little action.

Feels like the line moved somewhat appropriately from 19 to now 22 or so but I’ve heard enough this week from Walters…he has lost this bunch and is spiraling.

If it drops back to 21 or below lay it but if not…lay it anyway.
Click to expand...
Is Walters getting an unfair shake ? He lost all his good talent via nil. They just aren't talented.

He did well last year for his talent level I thought.

Purdue just looks like a bad job right now.

To me this signals Purdue is going to try to run it bleed clock and lessen the embarrassment. Card is a good football player imo.
 
EL CAPO said:
Is Walters getting an unfair shake ? He lost all his good talent via nil. They just aren't talented.

He did well last year for his talent level I thought.

Purdue just looks like a bad job right now.

To me this signals Purdue is going to try to run it bleed clock and lessen the embarrassment. Card is a good football player imo.
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Definitely not unfair at all IMO. Recruiting and transfer talent to me has been above previous levels when looking at previous years.

Brohm obviously did no favors and left cupboard completely bare for Walters and it was a tough go to start.

It’s obviously talent but this is a coaching deal where this staff was just in way over its head. There is no reason to get absolutely worked by a depleted and overhauled Oregon st team with less talent. Also 2 of the most lopsided losses in history to go with that…

all of the top end of the 2025 recruiting class already decommitted…its over or it is about to go back to Hazell years quickly
 
PaintCrew said:
Definitely not unfair at all IMO. Recruiting and transfer talent to me has been above previous levels when looking at previous years.

Brohm obviously did no favors and left cupboard completely bare for Walters and it was a tough go to start.

It’s obviously talent but this is a coaching deal where this staff was just in way over its head. There is no reason to get absolutely worked by a depleted and overhauled Oregon st team with less talent. Also 2 of the most lopsided losses in history to go with that…

all of the top end of the 2025 recruiting class already decommitted…its over or it is about to go back to Hazell years quickly
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FYI doesn’t matter for this game as it’s obvious but I think Purdue makes a move after the Oregon game assuming the next 2 go the way one would all expect and is first to the market looking for a coach. Walters is well aware his time is near.
 
PaintCrew said:
Illinois off a bye and off of a loss to Penn st against his former defensive coordinator who raided his coaching staff and also put one on Bert to the tune of 44-19 last year.

Walters also snagged a few transfers as well and even came and picked up Hudson Card from the Illini football facility 2 years ago during his recruitment right out from under Bert and drove him in his personal car from there to west Lafayette to close that deal.

I think Illini have all the motivation in the world to make this as ugly as possible
Click to expand...
Motivation yes, but ability to do it might be another thing. I guess it depends on what ugly is. If it's similar to what happened in Madison, I don't know that I see that happening. Illinois has never done that under Bielema and they aren't wired to explode on people. They are much better as a dog than as a favorite. If we're talking 34-10 or something I can see that but I don't think we'll see the brutal beatdown a lot of other programs would administer to Purdue this week. No Card though? Yikes. Purdue is the ultimately DO NOT PLAY ON team for me.
 
I'm kind of torn on Iowa/Washington. I cap it as a major edge for Washington on the field, but the spot is monumentally bad for the Huskies. Even if Iowa gets every break(which they will) and Washington shoots itself in the foot, turns it over, misses 4 field goals, etc, I still don't think I'd lay 3.5 with Iowa if it gets there.
 
Illinois 50-49

Wisconsin by 35

I have no clue about this conference lol.

Honestly, all summer, I liked Oregon to win against OSU. That happens, and frankly, with better coaching, it probably happens a bit easier. With that being said, I was surprised today. Excellent effort and a well-deserved win.
 
B.A.R. said:
Illinois 50-49

Wisconsin by 35

I have no clue about this conference lol.

Honestly, all summer, I liked Oregon to win against OSU. That happens, and frankly, with better coaching, it probably happens a bit easier. With that being said, I was surprised today. Excellent effort and a well-deserved win.
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It's a clusterfuck. Both coaches were terrible in Eugene. The Oregon kid spitting on the OSU kid was awful and thats coaching. OSU kids had no awareness of situations a few times, and that's on Day. Just of note, Oregon's best defensive player was OUT for this game.
 
PaintCrew said:
Definitely not unfair at all IMO. Recruiting and transfer talent to me has been above previous levels when looking at previous years.

Brohm obviously did no favors and left cupboard completely bare for Walters and it was a tough go to start.

It’s obviously talent but this is a coaching deal where this staff was just in way over its head. There is no reason to get absolutely worked by a depleted and overhauled Oregon st team with less talent. Also 2 of the most lopsided losses in history to go with that…

all of the top end of the 2025 recruiting class already decommitted…its over or it is about to go back to Hazell years quickly
Click to expand...
I definitely didn’t have a Ryan Browne led offense dropping 40 points in a half. Interesting wrinkle with Walters stepping in and calling offensive plays.

A lot to unpack but it’s still basketball season
 
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