B1g week 7

HUNT

HUNT

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Let's go.

Buckeyes and Wisconsin far and away best in the big ten this year. By a mile. Gonna be a great game down there this month.

Michigan was a must win yesterday. Might go 8-5 though. That was a brutal game by two very bad offenses.Michigan needs a qb change but will never do it.

Sparty got confused with the plays. Second td was a great play by bucks that shook sparty and were never the same.

Wisconsin did what they had to do. Stay healthy due this week. Get Taylor Heisman exposure.

Penn state silently in the hunt still.

I'll be on sparty 11.5 on a buy of 1.5 points. This is their style, their game. It will be tight. Moneyline in consideration too.

GL.
 
Problem with Wisconsin is that they don't have a QB or WRs that are going to scare anyone. Obviously a salty defense and Taylor is outstanding. But when he's the centerpiece of your offense and you can contain him, which I think Ohio State can do, then you're sort of screwed.

In Columbus I think Ohio State wins this game comfortably.
 
B.A.R. said:
Yeah, Cephus is really good and overall they have some talent there.

I'll let @HUNT speak on Coan... that is his horse.
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He's good if he has time. This is his first true test. Don't let the bucks /msu game fool you. Msu always struggles with zone read tempo teams. Plus bucks can win it all. Justin fields is so good.. minus second half last night. It's very hard to prep for buckeyes and fields.

Msu loves these types of offenses as a d. It challenges their manhood if you try to run on them pro style. They'll be ready and I expect them to stay in it. Wisconsin will probably wear them down late. I'll take msu first half too.
 
Iowa should be favored in Kinnick under the lights. PSU at best 9-3 team, bout to get exposed. Iowa +3 LARGE for me. Major double revenge and off a loss. Nate Stanley be damned, get your head on straight.
 
detroit187 said:
Iowa should be favored in Kinnick under the lights. PSU at best 9-3 team, bout to get exposed. Iowa +3 LARGE for me. Major double revenge and off a loss. Nate Stanley be damned, get your head on straight.
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Woah!

This surprises me.

Now, I understand that PSU has yet to face a good team but man that defense is fast and nasty.

Now, this is huge revenge game. HUGE... two years + running...
 
Had OSU -20 but I was relatively impressed by Sparty as OSU is very much a championship contender. Definitely agree with hunt’s assessment of the Sparty/Wisconsin matchup
 
survive&advance said:
Had OSU -20 but I was relatively impressed by Sparty as OSU is very much a championship contender. Definitely agree with hunt’s assessment of the Sparty/Wisconsin matchup
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Sparty pass attack was as creative as I've seen it in years. Now, is this a trend or abberation? This stretch is huge... Wisky n PSU this month will determine if they stay in race or play in Redbox Bowl again.
 
detroit187 said:
Iowa should be favored in Kinnick under the lights. PSU at best 9-3 team, bout to get exposed. Iowa +3 LARGE for me. Major double revenge and off a loss. Nate Stanley be damned, get your head on straight.
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Their oline is brutal. But, Iowa at kinnick at night is worth 3-4 points. They always seem to get an upset there. Michigan 2016 comes to mind.
 
It just lines up for MSU imo, assuming they aren't thinking about last week.

But there is a big difference between facing a power run team with limited ability in the passing game and facing a team with not just a passing game to account for but a running QB to account for. MSU is best defensively when they know what they are getting and can attack it.... particularly the more one dimensional you are. They don't have to worry about Coan running and they can live with the occasional completion to Cephus or TE Ferguson. They can attack in this situation compared to having to react this past Saturday. Let us not forget that Wisconsin scored 1 offensive TD against NW (having to convert a fourth down that drive to do it) and in this game they will actually have to face a team capable of geting a first down and scoring. Just seems like it should be a game that Michigan State can compete in and it should be a short game with a running clock, though MSU has been playing faster this year. If MSU can avoid the big turnovers, they should be right there in the fourth .. assuming they are not hungover from last week. At the end of the day, it looks to me like Wisconsin is feeding off of bad opponent defenses. Kind of think you get MSU off getting whipped, people remember the rushing yards vs Michigan, but somehow forget the NW game ever happened and then you have this line. I even think Lewerke could get me a backdoor if MSU is struggling most game but Wiscy lets up.
 
I kinda agree Iowa will win this week but in saying that it looked like they had cloned slow jason wittens for every skill position player. I'm not sure how they block that penn state pass rush. Under has to be the best play in this game imo.

sparty very well may be the 2nd best team in the big ten. And that's not good for the conference.
 
HUNT said:
Their oline is brutal. But, Iowa at kinnick at night is worth 3-4 points. They always seem to get an upset there. Michigan 2016 comes to mind.
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Penn State won there on its final play of the game.
Ohio State also got crushed there.
 
RetroVK said:
It just lines up for MSU imo, assuming they aren't thinking about last week.

But there is a big difference between facing a power run team with limited ability in the passing game and facing a team with not just a passing game to account for but a running QB to account for. MSU is best defensively when they know what they are getting and can attack it.... particularly the more one dimensional you are. They don't have to worry about Coan running and they can live with the occasional completion to Cephus or TE Ferguson. They can attack in this situation compared to having to react this past Saturday. Let us not forget that Wisconsin scored 1 offensive TD against NW (having to convert a fourth down that drive to do it) and in this game they will actually have to face a team capable of geting a first down and scoring. Just seems like it should be a game that Michigan State can compete in and it should be a short game with a running clock, though MSU has been playing faster this year. If MSU can avoid the big turnovers, they should be right there in the fourth .. assuming they are not hungover from last week. At the end of the day, it looks to me like Wisconsin is feeding off of bad opponent defenses. Kind of think you get MSU off getting whipped, people remember the rushing yards vs Michigan, but somehow forget the NW game ever happened and then you have this line. I even think Lewerke could get me a backdoor if MSU is struggling most game but Wiscy lets up.
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One other thing I want to point out right now is that Wisconsin is not as one dimensional as it seems. They're averaging 254 per game on ground and 202 in the air (with a 76% completion rate).
 
Michigan State is not going to be able to move the ball. Wisconsin will get good field position. They will pick up 1st down through the air.
 
Sparty‘s pass D has been a major weakness since its season opener. Its nice timing to coincide with Wisconsin‘s strongest pass attack in years
Yea and limiting JT isn‘t exactly a guarantee, even with that elite rush D
 
Bar: you still eyeing up that over in Michigan/Illinois? Last week was an ugly one but then again, slightly different caliber of defense this week.
 
Ya maybe rutgers tt over to limit my exposure. Rutgers trying to woo Saban away from Bama...
 
EFC1878 said:
Bar: you still eyeing up that over in Michigan/Illinois? Last week was an ugly one but then again, slightly different caliber of defense this week.
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Yes. Two things for now. 1.) Weather...front to go through Friday as of now..so windy Sat...lotta time though 2.) I'll be around all day tomorrow.. will get into this more.... The um defense was much better Saturday... so I also have um TT in mind as maybe the option. I know...it sounds ridiculous but hear me out tomorrow.
 
I cannot do it .. .but I know it is the right thing to do. The team is just in too much of a shambles... redshirting key players for next year, coaching transition, pretty awful to begin with, no QB play right now, no impetus to score from the coach last week .... but I still think that team total will win.
 
Illinois redshirt junior QB Brandon Peters is questionable for Saturday's game vs. Michigan due to an upper body injury.
Peters (6'5/220) suffered the injury late in the second quarter of this past weekend's loss to Minnesota, and it is unknown if he'll be healthy enough to play against his former school on Saturday. And with freshman Isaiah Williams not traveling to Minnesota due to injury, the Fighting Illini could be down two options at the quarterback position come Saturday. "They're getting better. We're hopeful," Lovie Smith said on Monday. "We'll need everyone to be able to beat a team like Michigan." Redshirt freshman Matt Robinson replaced Peters in the Minnesota loss, and he would be next in line if the redshirt junior is unable to play.
 
The thing about Penn State's O is they really aren't that hard to defend, you just have to avoid the big plays and get guys on the ground. That O is all feast or famine on big plays. Force them to drive the field without big plays.
 
s--k said:
The thing about Penn State's O is they really aren't that hard to defend, you just have to avoid the big plays and get guys on the ground. That O is all feast or famine on big plays. Force them to drive the field without big plays.
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Good point.
 
I may have mentioned it before here, but I have an old friend that is a meteorologist and also a huge Wisconsin fan. I checked in with him this morning about how he saw the weather situation for the BT games at kickoff. Obviously plenty can change with the weather this far out, but this is what he gave me:

Michigan: a few showers but won’t be heavy. Temps in the 50s, I’d say breezy maybe 15-25 mph winds

Wisconsin-MSU: heavy wind, 30 mph at least
 
It is a pretty cool setting.

usa_today_10301876.0.jpg
 
EFC1878 said:
I may have mentioned it before here, but I have an old friend that is a meteorologist and also a huge Wisconsin fan. I checked in with him this morning about how he saw the weather situation for the BT games at kickoff. Obviously plenty can change with the weather this far out, but this is what he gave me:

Michigan: a few showers but won’t be heavy. Temps in the 50s, I’d say breezy maybe 15-25 mph winds

Wisconsin-MSU: heavy wind, 30 mph at least
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Terrific. Thank you. This and the Illinois QB situation is keeping me from any plays early. We'll see how the total moves too. Today is moving day for totals it seems.
 
Mich Illinois total has now dropped below 50 ... So opened 55 and is 49.5 currently.
 
Side is -22 now. The obvious reasons for the moves are QB issues at Illinois and the potential weather (wind) for Saturday.
 
Hate to see you guys on Iowa. I’m on the other side. I can’t see Iowa scoring much.

Psu is pretty much ranked higher in all statistical categories on D, albeit by very little, but still higher.

Psu is higher is pretty much every O category too.

I’m leaning towards this being a larger play on psu after looking at it a little closer.

I think psu D is much more athletic than mich’s D and iowa couldn’t do anything vs mich.

Iowa’s D is a bend, don’t break D. Shea Patterson isn’t picking his nose apart let alone a power 5 D. I think psu can get some big plays vs the Iowa D. I will say Clifford is a wild card. Iowa city is a bit different than college park. So how does he react in that environment?

Additionally, Iowa historically is better (yeah, I have zero stats for this comment, but I believe it lol) playing as a team that not may expect much from. Plus, psu has franklin manning the sidelines. However, I think franklin is worse vs elite coaches and talent than good coaches and ok talent.

I think a couple things for those on either side might be in play: guys on Iowa remember the beating osu took at night there. So it’s a bludgeoning waiting to happen. Guys on psu are looking at the ineptitude of Iowa’s O vs mich last week.

As of now, I have psu minus the points for a regular play. But I may add more.
 
s--k said:
The thing about Penn State's O is they really aren't that hard to defend, you just have to avoid the big plays and get guys on the ground. That O is all feast or famine on big plays. Force them to drive the field without big plays.
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Bingo. They have a very good freshman RB #21 who can alleviate this issue. Problem is, they use 3-4 backs and rotate constantly from the 2 games I’ve seen. Franklin did the same with some Saquon kid before big 10 play and it cost him. This #21 is by no means no Barkley but he’s a grinder and the best back.

Also, what’s the wind like there Sat? Would help Iowa
 
mutosufan said:
Hate to see you guys on Iowa. I’m on the other side. I can’t see Iowa scoring much.

Psu is pretty much ranked higher in all statistical categories on D, albeit by very little, but still higher.

Psu is higher is pretty much every O category too.

I’m leaning towards this being a larger play on psu after looking at it a little closer.

I think psu D is much more athletic than mich’s D and iowa couldn’t do anything vs mich.

Iowa’s D is a bend, don’t break D. Shea Patterson isn’t picking his nose apart let alone a power 5 D. I think psu can get some big plays vs the Iowa D. I will say Clifford is a wild card. Iowa city is a bit different than college park. So how does he react in that environment?

Additionally, Iowa historically is better (yeah, I have zero stats for this comment, but I believe it lol) playing as a team that not may expect much from. Plus, psu has franklin manning the sidelines. However, I think franklin is worse vs elite coaches and talent than good coaches and ok talent.

I think a couple things for those on either side might be in play: guys on Iowa remember the beating osu took at night there. So it’s a bludgeoning waiting to happen. Guys on psu are looking at the ineptitude of Iowa’s O vs mich last week.

As of now, I have psu minus the points for a regular play. But I may add more.
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I expect Iowa to follow the Pitt blue print vs PSU. That game and first half vs Buffalo showed me a lot. I take nothing from Purdue game for PSU as PU was without basically anybody with talent outside of the DE and frosh WR. Maryland was a complete disaster from the start, PSU always dominates them, half stadium was PSU fans, Maryland not a physical football team. Add in the haunted house of horrors in Kinnick at night, triple revenge, usually tight games, waving at kids, recipe is there. If PSU wins they’ll probably win by 7+ and I’ll be completely wrong about Iowa and take my beating.

Who gives PSU the biggest trouble the last few years? Physical football teams. MSU, Iowa, Michigan, Kentucky in Bowl game. Teams that commit to running the ball, play action and solid defense. They’ve played OSU so well because they match up well with them the last 3 years with their style. Ironically, it’s the way PSU used to play in Paterno days that can get to them.
Two years ago in Kinnick PSU completely dominated most of the game, Iowa O couldn’t move the ball at all. Lost on last second throw as Barkley bailed them out on final drive, repeatedly.
Just my observation.
 
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