B1G Week 6

[B.A.R.]

Michigan will need to score to win this game. I expect the defense to give up some big plays as well. This has the feeling of a 27-23/27-24/31-21 kinda game. I wouldn't look at 2016 as an example at all. Their are unknowns here, as I will explain in more detail after dinner.

 

[Fondybadger]

Michigan will need to score to win this game. I expect the defense to give up some big plays as well. This has the feeling of a 27-23/27-24/31-21 kinda game. I wouldn't look at 2016 as an example at all. Their are unknowns here, as I will explain in more detail after dinner.

Enjoy the jello

 

[B.A.R.]

Michigan will need to score to win this game. I expect the defense to give up some big plays as well. This has the feeling of a 27-23/27-24/31-21 kinda game. I wouldn't look at 2016 as an example at all. Their are unknowns here, as I will explain in more detail after dinner.

Warning up a bit to over Mich TT options. Now... The underneath should be there... will Shea be patient? We'll see. More in the morning ...

 

[B.A.R.]

Warning up a bit to over Mich TT options. Now... The underneath should be there... will Shea be patient? We'll see. More in the morning ...

Michigan TT o25.5 -115 1.5 units

 

[B.A.R.]

As for rest of the conference... I'll track the Primetime game obviously. The more I think about it the more I see a blowout. This isn't CUM vs MSU where other than two of the years he's went very conservative vs them. Day simply is pedal to the floor at all times. The MSU pass defense can be had as IU showed. Pass to set up some runs. That should be the gameplan...nothing else interests me. Obv PSU should roll... The dogs in state of Illinois only way I play those games. Maryland TT if gun to head in the B10 Expansion Bowl...

 

[B.A.R.]

And yes, I do recommend the over in um-iowa. My final prediction is 30-21. Initially I liked Iowa at +7 but the more I dug into this game..the more questions I had about Iowa... They went from Wisconsin-lite to something a bit less in my mind. Now...I could be way off. We'll see. Iowa's season is determined these next two weeks...

 

[mutosufan]

Good luck BAR. But I’m on Iowa. Small play because I’m not confident in Iowa as a road team. Glad it’s at noon.

If you list what you are pretty confident in for each team, what would they be?

Iowa:

OL will be strong
DL will be strong
Iowa will run somewhat effectively
Iowa will stop mich from running

Mich:

Nothing

Mich doesn’t do anything that makes me confident that they will do it well.

Games are won by the lines and Iowa has much better lines on both sides and it’s not close imo.

I had this initially at mich -1. So any pts are gift to me. Why I’m on Iowa.

Larger size bet on osu -20.

Regular bet on psu. Franklin has always liked style points, this year is no different as they are trying to keep up with osu and wisky. And their D is legit. Purdue can’t run the ball at all. Highest ave this year has been 3.3 ypc. Best psu has allowed, 3.2 ypc.

Good luck fellas.

 

[s--k]

Just glancing over some stats, here is an odd one:

Iowa has just 11 TFL this year, some teams get 11 in one game. 2 each vs MiaOh, ISU, Rutgers and 5 vs MTSU. That is good enough for 130th in the country 2.75 per game, just behind UTEP.

Doesn't necessarily mean much, Georgia was in the bottom 20% of the nation in TFL with just 4.6 pg '18. And Michigan '19 (as expected) is not good at getting tkls for loss (4 per game).

Just kinda jumped out to me to see Iowa last.

Other stats of note:
3 best TFL teams in the nation are from the B1G - ILL 11.5, OSU 10.4, PSU 9.75
4 best Scoring Ds in the nation are from the B1G - Wisconsin 7.3, PSU 7.5, Iowa 8..5, OSU 8.6

 

[s--k]

What y’all think of Ferentz

Could Ferentz do the SEC? Guy seems to really have em up every year......every year

Excellent traditional coach and developer of LOS talent.

His teams are tough, but not consistently great. A couple of DD win seasons sprinkled in among a bunch of 7 and 8 win seasons, an occastional losing season. Avg 4.8 losses per year last 10.

 

[AliShaheed]

The Iowa/mich debate has been a fun one to follow all week on the internets.

Apparently Iowa is the "square play" because mich was a 2 td favorite at the beginning of the year so now mich is this huge value play.

But how is relying on preseason opinion-based power ratings a logical strategy at week 6 of the season? That doesn't seem very sharp to me at all. What these teams have done on the field should take precedence over whatever highly inaccurate numbers were made back in May IMO.

 

[B.A.R.]

The Iowa/mich debate has been a fun one to follow all week on the internets.

Apparently Iowa is the "square play" because mich was a 2 td favorite at the beginning of the year so now mich is this huge value play.

But how is relying on preseason opinion-based power ratings a logical strategy at week 6 of the season? That doesn't seem very sharp to me at all. What these teams have done on the field should take precedence over whatever highly inaccurate numbers were made back in May IMO.

I really had to dig into Iowa this week. I was more and more unimpressed which means they will look like world beaters today lol. This game is huge on both ends but moreso UM. As far as the spread... The only bet at 3/3.5 is Michigan... Iowa backers had 7 for a brief time and 5.5 was WA for awhile... Regardless of who covers... That's this week's learning point.

 

[B.A.R.]

Also, go back in the thread and remember that the biggest skeptical Michigan fan took them on the ML. It shocked me too until I really digged in.

 

[s--k]

I'm having a hard time getting past that Illinois +14 number.

This is a better ILL team, still has plenty of issues, but improved all together. And this is a pretty tight Minny team that plays well in the clutch, but also has some flaws of it's own.

14?

Min's average margin of victory this year is just 5 ppg. Guess the odds makers expect a breakout today.

This was the game last year that ILL ran for 430 and Minny fired the DC. So that and losing by 24 I'm sure will have their full focus. All it means is we should see their best, which I'm pretty sure we have seen at some point weeks 1-4 already. Minn is pretty good, I like their team, but can't avoid taking these seemingly generous points with ILL.

 

[AliShaheed]

I really had to dig into Iowa this week. I was more and more unimpressed which means they will look like world beaters today lol. This game is huge on both ends but moreso UM. As far as the spread... The only bet at 3/3.5 is Michigan... Iowa backers had 7 for a brief time and 5.5 was WA for awhile... Regardless of who covers... That's this week's learning point.

I really have no problem with anyone playing mich this week. I just don't want to hear about preseason lines at this point in the season.

Did anyone really get Iowa +7? Leading up to the week of the mich/rutgers game it was Iowa +4. I was on the BOL openers and the first number I saw was Iowa +5.5. It's possible I blinked and missed the +7 but it couldn't have been up there for more than a minute.

 

[AliShaheed]

OSU team total over 34 seems like the play. They'll probably need 34 to cover the spread anyway.

 

[B.A.R.]

I really have no problem with anyone playing mich this week. I just don't want to hear about preseason lines at this point in the season.

Did anyone really get Iowa +7? Leading up to the week of the mich/rutgers game it was Iowa +4. I was on the BOL openers and the first number I saw was Iowa +5.5. It's possible I blinked and missed the +7 but it couldn't have been up there for more than a minute.

That's why I said for a brief moment. I'm sure it was a very small number that got it. For this exercise.. let's say 5.5... that's when you play Iowa... Not at s reduced number. That's all...

 

[B.A.R.]

Now, anything can happen. Earlyish in week I had this valued at around 3. Fwiw. I had to look further and would make this game 4.5 or so now. Obviously I'm not touching the side. We'll learn a lot today. It's a fascinating game.

 

[B.A.R.]

OSU team total over 34 seems like the play. They'll probably need 34 to cover the spread anyway.

Yeah I'm just gonna play it now instead of waiting and getting a 35.5 later...

 

[B.A.R.]

Good luck everyone on either side of UM/Iowa... My discussion the last several posts is moreso for us all to learn about value etc. It's always a continuous process... Now let's go points.

 

[B.A.R.]

Yeah I'm just gonna play it now instead of waiting and getting a 35.5 later...

OSU TT o 34.5 2.5 units

 

[tuck321]

Have you looked at Northern Illinios minus 4?

 

[B.A.R.]

Have you looked at Northern Illinios minus 4?

no

I know many like dog though

 

[mutosufan]

Congrats to everyone who cashed in this week.

Went 1-1-1. Won osu. Lost Iowa. Pushed psu.

Iowa tried not to cover. And they succeeded. Lol. Thx fellas!

Psu tried too but got the push.

Osu cashed. But it came with some effort.

Listened to Sirius this morning talking about the games yesterday. Iowa v mich came up. One guy described Ferentz as a guy that’s never gotten a speeding ticket. Drives in the right lane, hands at 10 and 2 going 50 in a 55 just grinning.

Cracked me up because that is 100% true.