B1G Week 6

B.A.R.

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Afternoon all, crazy we are into week 6 already.

Still having trouble typing out large posts so I am gonna just do some quick takes...


Last week:

-Maryland is officially back to reality. Now, they are not that bad, but they are definitely not as good as they got hyped up after two weeks of action. Penn St defense is straight nasty.

-Indiana is the first team to realize fully how to attack Michigan State defense. You can pass on them all day..dink and dunk...then hit some long ones. The Spartans got a bit lucky that Penix missed a wide-open guy for a 94 yard TD in 4th qtr to go up 31-21 but Lewerke was very solid and good to see the kicker make one at the end.

-Michigan played hungry guys and younger guys. Yes, it was Rutgers but you still have to perform. The move of Gattis to the sidelines was huge. They need to shore up some things on defense still...big-time...the crossing routes with picks and rubs still kill them going back to IU/OSU last year.

-Ohio State rolled in Lincoln. No big surprise as the Huskers defense just isn't ready for a good offense. I know they haven't been tested yet but this OSU team is a top 3 team right now. They are very complete. Obviously the season hinges on the health of Fields. Hopefully for them no cheap-shots from their buddies in EL this weekend.

-Purdue injuries...Minnesota I can't even get a feel for...

-Iowa solid as always...but as Hunt will point out...haven't played much yet so far...

-Wisconsin hangover and they got conservative as can be after a very aggressive game the week before. NW played very well on defense.


This week:

-Iowa at Michigan is a battle of two teams that have yet to post a big win...ISU is okay and Army is top 30 but we need to see one of these two step up. This is a good chance for both. This will be an interesting game. More on this later...

-Kent State and Wisconsin. Whoop-de-doo.

-Purdue goes to Happy Valley...we need an injury reNport here but no reason to not think that PSU wins easily.

-Maryland and Rutgers...new coach in Jersey but this is a get well game for the Terps who need a win badly.

-Illinois and Minny... interesting game...I actually will be watching(on dvr) to see exactly what these teams are...

-Northwestern and Nebraska. Both teams have to be down after last week. The Huskers need a win. I think NW doesn't have the offense to test that defense to much. Tough game...

-Prime time kick at the Shoe... If OSU goes pass to set up run...they will win easily. MSU offense will have a tough time here as well. I don't think OSU goes for their ppg average but 35-14 or so sounds right.


Lookaheads:

-Illinois has Michigan next week. Apparently this is a rivalry game for them as they have hyped it for weeks. VERY... odd...

-Wisconsin has MSU in Madison next week...first tough defense they have faced...JT vs that run defense...

-Iowa has lots of revenge vs PSU to unleash at home.
 
Penn state defense entered the season as a borderline top five unit imo, finally saw that last week. We’ll see if it’s here to stay

I don’t see how MSU covers the number vs OSU. Would like to hear any contrary thoughts here as @B.A.R. already touched on what I’m thinking. Bucks have the athleticism, talent and vertical offensive style to have success offensively. On the other side, this bucks defense has looked downright nasty...MSU o line is going to struggle to protect lewerke imo...we already know this offense is beyond antiquated with minimal talent
 
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I'll comment more in a bit but I might be being too nice with that prediction...back in a bit.
 
ND +1 is ridiculous too. Yes, a UTL game but after a tough PSU game...I dunno. But... we'll know more in next few weeks.
 
You said it already with Purdue. Comes down to injuries and probably the most underrated one is LB Bailey being out for the year and what it's done for that defense. His backup (Barnes) got caught in no mans land on nearly every RPO that Minnesota ran essentially making Purdue play without a middle linebacker every time they did it (and I think that was nearly all of their pass attempts. I would like to think after a week of film that gets at least partially corrected but at this point this defense minus Bailey but just be what it is...not good.

Sindelar, Moore, and Neal aren't on the depth chart this week at all.
 
PaintCrew said:
You said it already with Purdue. Comes down to injuries and probably the most underrated one is LB Bailey being out for the year and what it's done for that defense. His backup (Barnes) got caught in no mans land on nearly every RPO that Minnesota ran essentially making Purdue play without a middle linebacker every time they did it (and I think that was nearly all of their pass attempts. I would like to think after a week of film that gets at least partially corrected but at this point this defense minus Bailey but just be what it is...not good.

Sindelar, Moore, and Neal aren't on the depth chart this week at all.
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Thx for the updates. Wow at that LB.
 
B.A.R. said:
Yup. I would have been on that but the concern will always be if JF can make it that far unscathed.
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Most teams are not going to survive if their starting qb goes down. Especially now as we move into the transfer portal era.

I don't often play preseason lines for that very reason (so many things can happen between may and november) but there were a few this year that were just too good to pass up. ND +8 at mich was another one I had to grab.
 
AliShaheed said:
Most teams are not going to survive if their starting qb goes down. Especially now as we move into the transfer portal era.

I don't often play preseason lines for that very reason (so many things can happen between may and november) but there were a few this year that were just too good to pass up. ND +8 at mich was another one I had to grab.
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Yeah, I agree. It's funny because Mich is so deep at QB lol but not at RB or DL. Uggh.
 
AliShaheed said:
what's next week?
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Okay...

So I wasn't too vocal about this on here this summer but one thing I was looking at was Michigan overs...

I had a bad feeling about this defense...

I know eventually the offense is going to be real solid... it is just taking a bit more time to gel...

With that being said...3-1 to the over so far and the numbers are still in the moderate range imo...

I am unsure about this week to be honest...even with another reasonable number but Iowa is still a mystery to me...

Next week, at Illinois I think we get a soft number. I expect the game to get into the 60's and the number will be lower than that. A team total may be in order but that will be looked at more after this week.
 
Week 1, Michigan left some points off the board.

Week 3, They left 10-14 points off the board as well.

Week 4, Rutgers left 3-7 points off the board.

So, even though two of those didn't fly over...they could have by a larger margin.
 
DPJ being back helps field position SO much as well.

Also, the defense is not great but they are do for some turnovers....they are very close...in that regard...
 
Ohio State has the most consecutive 40+ point wins (four) by any team since 1998

Minnesota is the 5th team in history to win it's first 4 games by 7 points or less

- Saw it on Inside College Football show
 
-Northwestern and Nebraska. Both teams have to be down after last week. The Huskers need a win. I think NW doesn't have the offense to test that defense to much. Tough game...
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I haven't read anything following the game, but I might think that Northwestern is encouraged by the effort vs Wisconsin rather than being down. They played really good defense, even if Wisconsin was being ultra conservative, NW deserves credit for their play on D and I think they can take that away as a positive. They held UW to half their scoring average and almost 260 yards below their yardage average. No doubt they are still struggling on O and they can't be happy there, but in coach speak "battling" and "fighting" and "not quitting" - I don't see them hanging their heads much.

Now Nebraska on the other hand, that is a tough one to get off the mat from.
 
Tanner Morgan 21-22-396-4-0 QBR 306.66

Purdue’s defense came into the game with the 101st ranked pass defense, one of the worst in the country. Morgan made them look like exactly that. Morgan entered the game with a 66.7% completion percentage which since only increased. In the first half, Morgan had 16 completions on 17 attempts for 298 yards and three touchdowns. Morgan didn’t throw his first incomplete pass until 1:32 remaining in the second quarter on the last drive before the end of the first half. He finished the game with 21 completions on 22 attempts, completing 95.5% of his passes. That's the best single game completion percentage ever in the Big Ten.
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Iowa has averaged 515.67 yards per game and 38.67 ppg vs Mia(Oh), Rutgers and MTSU (6.86 yards per play)

Vs ISU, Iowa gained 313 and scored 18 points (4.35 yards per play)
 
Scott Frost is very protective and supportive of Martinez when he talks to the media. I'm not sure if he is mindful of his QB's psyche and wanting to stay positive to keep Adrian's confidence or if he just sees things through the eyes of a former QB that knows alot of things around Martinez aren't going right that effects his play.
 
s--k said:
I haven't read anything following the game, but I might think that Northwestern is encouraged by the effort vs Wisconsin rather than being down. They played really good defense, even if Wisconsin was being ultra conservative, NW deserves credit for their play on D and I think they can take that away as a positive. They held UW to half their scoring average and almost 260 yards below their yardage average. No doubt they are still struggling on O and they can't be happy there, but in coach speak "battling" and "fighting" and "not quitting" - I don't see them hanging their heads much.

Now Nebraska on the other hand, that is a tough one to get off the mat from.
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Fair enough...
 
s--k said:
Iowa has averaged 515.67 yards per game and 38.67 ppg vs Mia(Oh), Rutgers and MTSU (6.86 yards per play)

Vs ISU, Iowa gained 313 and scored 18 points (4.35 yards per play)
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Great stat

Could Ferentz do the SEC? Guy seems to really have em up every year......every year
 
Only teams that have impressed me in this conference is OSU Wisky and PSU. OSU Wisky will be fun, maybe, in Indy. Indoor track always favors speed tho. Michigan MSU, seen this act time and time again, meh. I’m over it, let’s get giddy over beating the snot out of nobodies at home. Maybe we win a slug fest this week because, it’s vanilla ass Iowa and they aren’t at home at night in Kinnick. Or maybe M just loses, nothing surprising anymore, I’ve lost faith.

PSU will run it up on Purdue like Peanut likes to do and then I’ll smash Iowa anything under 3 at home under lights. Iowa losing to Michigan will only help this bet and line. PSU fast as I’ve ever seen them but won’t havd Barkley 300 yards to bail them out. Franklin due to get outcoached three times still this year, I’ll go OSU Iowa MSU for his 3 Ls. Their QB is fine, just young. Team is all soph frosh, next year they’ll win big 10 if OSU doesn’t, take that to bank.

Amazing how much hot garbage is in this conference. Losing Rondale Moore is criminal from a fan perspective, he arouses me. Hamler (OLSM) for PSU does too. WTF Corn, I expected more.

Turtles, never seen a team so unprepared, undisciplined and just pathetic at home on prime time against a self proclaimed rival. You can buy Locksley, I’ll see you all you want, dude is a fraud.

13-12 Michigan or Iowa, hope my eyes don’t bleed.

Best
 
I can’t see msu covering this line. I saw it opening at 20 and popping up to 21 maybe 21.5. Of course I didn’t get the opening 17.

In the last 5 games vs osu, msu hasn’t scored more than 17 Pts.

Sticking with 17 pts for msu then osu obviously has to get to 37/38 to get the cover.

I don’t see msu getting to 17. I see osu getting to 37+.

Msu O:

In 5 games they’ve only ave more than 4 ypc twice. One of those times was a whopping 4.2 ypc. And tbh they haven’t played stout D’s to date. But anything under 5 ypc in college is brutal.

Supposedly msu is down 3 OL. Two starters and one fill in starter for the starter that got hurt.

Msu isn’t capable of running the ball vs osu. There’s zero chance. That turns Dantonio into a coach that has to call 35+ pass plays.

Msu D:

It’s good. Real good. But they have limited sub packages and ask their starters to go most of the game. That’s nice when you cause 5-6-7 3 and outs/game. But turns bad in the 3rd and 4th q when they’ve played 20-25 extra snaps.

This game comes down to the msu front 7. They have to make fields throw the ball every down, take Dobbins out of it. My guess is msu’s D gets at least 2 flags for hits on Fields. They’ll want to hit him every chance they get.

If msu can get osu to pass every down then osu doesn’t cover.

My Take:

Osu’s D wins this game. They’ll cause more msu 3 and outs then they’ve had to date (and osu is one of the least 3and our teams in cfb). This will create short fields and a lot of plays for the msu D to be on the field.

There’s zero chance msu runs on them (for one they don’t have a rb) and with the way the osu DBs are playing, msu doesn’t have the athletes or the playbook to cause mismatches in the passing game. I can’t see an avenue how msu scores.

Osu will run on msu some early, but not until later in the game will they get going. Once that starts the scoring opens up. Once dobbins starts gaining chunks then Fields opens up down field. I don’t see an avenue how msu can keep osu’s O from scoring when their O continuously puts the D in bad situations.

Msu doesn’t have the depth to keep the osu O from scoring. Msu doesn’t have the athletes to keep pace.

Plus, keep going with the Ryan day Saturday meat train. He’s trying to make a statement.

Guessing osu gets to low 40’s
Msu gets to low teens at most
 
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I'm warming to the idea of playing over 47.5 in Michigan/Iowa. I like BAR's thoughts on next week but that is a pretty low number if Michigan's offense can move the ball through the air (and I think they can).
 
EFC1878 said:
I'm warming to the idea of playing over 47.5 in Michigan/Iowa. I like BAR's thoughts on next week but that is a pretty low number if Michigan's offense can move the ball through the air (and I think they can).
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I'll have some thoughts that might interest you once I fully wake up.
 
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