B1G Week 4...

B.A.R.

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Staff member
My Saturday afternoons have been packed lately so my apologies for not the most concise threads to get things started. A lot of my thoughts are generated from reading/scoping boxes and just general communication with other cappers...

I didn't get to see much of IU and UM but, as I said...IU tt and the over. Penix did about what I thought he would do to the secondary. I expected the usual 4th quarter game between these two but that did not materialize. Injuries are mounting for Michigan. As bad as the defense has been, there is simply no help with losing guys like Hutch and Paye early. Hutch is having surgery on his leg fracture. Huge loss.

Here is a snippet from a rivals article...

Three Things That Worked​

1. Milton and the Passing Attack
He finished with 344 yards and three touchdowns on 18-of-34 passing (52.9 percent), with his 344 yards standing as the 15th-most any U-M signal-caller had ever thrown for in a game. Explosive plays were also prevalent through the air, with five different players hauling in at least one reception that went for a minimum of 21 yards.

2. Rush Defense
Michigan's rush defense did its part against the IU rushing attack, limiting the Hoosiers to 118 yards and 3.1 yards per carry. Hoosier junior running back Stevie Scott finished the day with 97 yards and two scores, but it came on a dismal four yards per rush.

3. Punting
Michigan has undoubtedly found its replacement for struggling fifth-year senior Will Hart, with redshirt junior Brad Robbins averaging an impressive 53.6 yards on seven punts. Four of his seven punts went 50 yards or longer, and four also landed inside the Indiana 20-yard line.

Three Things That Didn't Work​

1. The Pass Defense
This was the biggest storyline for a second week in a row, with Michigan's secondary getting shredded for 342 yards and three touchdowns. Redshirt sophomore cornerback Vincent Gray was the primary target once again, as defensive coordinator Don Brown seemingly failed to fix the deficiencies that occurred last week against MSU.

2. Michigan's Rushing Attack
How can U-M's offensive line be this bad? Yes, both starting tackles — redshirt sophomores Jalen Mayfield and Ryan Hayes — were out with injury, but there's still no excuse for the team only being able to muster 19 rushing yards on 0.7 yards per carry. The dismal offensive line play obviously contributed to the nonexistent rushing attack, which put all the offensive pressure on Milton's arm.

3. Discipline and Penalties
U-M's undisciplined play continued again on Saturday, with the team committing eight penalties for 89 yards. The defensive line in particular frequently jumped offsides thanks to Indiana's deceptive cadence, an occurrence that eventually became an embarrassing trend. Do the players jumping offside deserve blame for it? Of course, but the coaches deserve more for not fixing it immediately.

Position-by-Position Battles​

Michigan's offensive line vs. Indiana's front seven
Michigan's front five turned in a putrid performance, failing to create any rushing lanes all game long for the Wolverine running backs. The pass blocking was better but also iffy at times, with the Hoosiers racking up three sacks and five tackles for loss.

Indiana's offensive line vs. Michigan's front seven
Michigan's defensive line played better than it did last week against MSU when it was nonexistent from a pass rushing standpoint, but nevertheless failed to record a sack for a second straight week. It did at least perform well against the run, though junior defensive end Aidan Hutchinson departed the game with injury and never returned. There is no timetable on when he might be back.

Michigan's wide receivers vs. Indiana's secondary
Several U-M wideouts enjoyed huge afternoons, with junior Ronnie Bell leading the way by hauling in six receptions for 149 yards and a score. Freshman wideout Roman Wilson also reeled in his first career score, while sophomore Cornelius Johnson grabbed a touchdown of his own and finishing with a career-best 82 yards. The receivers helped Milton average an impressive 19.1 yards per completion.

Indiana's wide receivers vs. Michigan's secondary
This was a major mismatch, with senior wideout Ty Fryfogle hauling in seven grabs for 142 yards and senior receiver Whop Philyor bringing in 11 receptions for 79 yards. Gray and redshirt sophomore cornerback Gemon Green were once again picked on all game long, and didn't have many answers for what Indiana was doing through the air.

Quarterbacks
Both quarterbacks posted stellar statistics, but Indiana redshirt sophomore Michael Penix gets a slight edge here due to the fact he never turned the ball over. He finished with 342 yards, three scores and a 60 completion percentage, while Milton threw for 344 yards and three touchdowns as well. Milton's 52.9 completion percentage was underwhelming, and his two picks occurred in the fourth quarter when Michigan was attempting to mount its comeback.

Running backs
Indiana easily gets the nod here, though Scott only averaged four yards per carry. Michigan's rushers were nonexistent, however, thanks in large part to the play of the offensive line. Redshirt sophomore Hassan Haskins led the way with 19 yards on six carries, while fifth-year senior Chris Evans was the next leading rusher with just five yards. Explosive plays were nowhere to be found either, with an 11-yard run by Haskins standing as the only rush that went longer than four yards from the running backs.

Special teams
Robbins was a special teams bright spot for U-M on Saturday, averaging a booming 53.6 yards per punt. IU punter Haydon Whitehead had a solid afternoon of his own, tallying 46.2 yards on five punts. Fifth-year senior Quinn Nordin never attempted a field goal, while Indiana's Charles Campbell nailed his only try — a 52-yarder. It was also a quiet day in the return categories for both sides.







Okay, now to the other team in-state... MSU. They reverted to what we thought they were. Man, that was extremely underwhelming. Yes, that is a letdown spot but they also are not very good at all. That was more reaffirming for me than anything I saw this weekend. I simply didn't have a great grasp on Iowa to make a play here but I believe line sunk to 5.5 just before kick? If so, that is wild. Jailen Nalor is very good, fwiw and was their offense on Saturday. This was a trenches game, and Iowa played Iowa football in that regard.

Ohio State took care of business in the first half. I'll let you guys explain that 4th quarter to me. Well, it was basically the 4 min mark on of the 3rd they had 2 TD drives, a return and then a 21 play drive that ended in a fumble. I do not think it is all that concerning but like a few years ago...opens up some nice over opportunities in OSU games/2nd halves perhaps.

Illinois is awful. Any team that struggles to break 20 vs Minnesota has issues. They ran the ball okay, that is the one positive. What a difference this year for Lovie and company.

Looks like a an ugly game in Evanston... I'll let @cubsker break down anything pertinent.

Well, I am happy that my Penn State future got voided back in August lmao. Wow, and wow...all I can say.

Lets sum up a few things we know in conference right now...


Minnesota has a terrible defense, regardless of missing games.

Michigan has terrible corners and their DC scheme is awful for the collection of players he has currently.

Northwestern is BACK!

No, seriously, the Cats are playing very good defense.

Indiana is a solid team. The PSU win is looking less impressive now (and I know their offense was iffy that game)

Taulia looks the part, no doubt, the last two games.



I do not know how you even tier this conference out right now.


Ohio State

Northwestern
Indiana
Wisconsin(?)

Purdue
Iowa

Maryland
Michigan
Minnesota
Penn State
Nebraska

Rutgers
Michigan State
Illinois


My quick takes on this weeks lines...

Iowa, seems like a good play. This is the first good offense they have played though so judging them so far is tough.

Who is the Wisconsin QB? Mertz cannot practice this week, right? The UM defense loses a big piece and has to have no confidence. This number moved 3.5 points pretty quick.

I think this will be the IU letdown game. I'll keep an eye out for a good live number for them up in East Lansing.

Rutgers is 6.5 point chalk. Yes, in a conference game they are almost laying a TD. That is the essence of 2020...

Penn State and Nebraska both looking to break the seal. I don't even know what to think here.

Ohio State and Maryland presents some fun totals options that I'll definitely look into...

Battle for the West at Purdue. This should be a very good game overall...no lean at all. I like both teams.


Back late night tomorrow...still watching some highlights etc to catch up.

GL to all.
 
Played NW and Iowa close to open at slightly better than available. Like both a lot, although the potential return of Moore for Purdue does give me pause from thinking laying anything at 3 or less is a gift. NW has impressed me quite a bit. Iowa is more of a play-against Minnesota than a play on Iowa, but do feel the Hawkeyes will have tremendous success moving the ball.

BAR: I'd mostly agree with your tiers although I would, at least for now, move Rutgers up a tier. I haven't seen anything that would make me take the other side if they were pk on a neutral against either Minnesota or Nebraska. I think I'm actually going to lay the -6.5 over Lovie and the boys on Saturday. Fuck it... gonna hit it right now.

There's a little voice in my head telling me I'll be kicking myself for not taking Indiana over Sparty, but the road game + letdown potential + the hook on the 7 is keeping me off. If Indiana's heads are in the game, they could blow Sparty's doors off.

I read on twitter earlier that Mertz for Wisconsin has been able to resume workouts and can return to practice on Thursday. Not sure if two days will be enough for him to play but my gut tells me yes. Can't play anything in that one as I simply don't know what Wisconsin is right now. One convincing win nearly three weeks ago against a crap opponent, and no idea who will be out/limited with the virus.

Over 72.5 is really, really tempting in OSU/Maryland. Terps need to be able to get the ground game going for their offense to work well. So my only question is what are the chances OSU really bottles them up at the LOS. And if so, what the the chances Maryland can run up some points against the 2s in the second half a la Rutgers - although that was a 64 so this is a bit of a jump. Going to have to stew on this one for a while.

The only two I have no feel for at all are Penn State/Nebraska and Michigan/Wisconsin. But only plays so far are Northwestern, Iowa and Rutgers.
 
Played NW and Iowa close to open at slightly better than available. Like both a lot, although the potential return of Moore for Purdue does give me pause from thinking laying anything at 3 or less is a gift. NW has impressed me quite a bit. Iowa is more of a play-against Minnesota than a play on Iowa, but do feel the Hawkeyes will have tremendous success moving the ball.

BAR: I'd mostly agree with your tiers although I would, at least for now, move Rutgers up a tier. I haven't seen anything that would make me take the other side if they were pk on a neutral against either Minnesota or Nebraska. I think I'm actually going to lay the -6.5 over Lovie and the boys on Saturday. Fuck it... gonna hit it right now.

There's a little voice in my head telling me I'll be kicking myself for not taking Indiana over Sparty, but the road game + letdown potential + the hook on the 7 is keeping me off. If Indiana's heads are in the game, they could blow Sparty's doors off.

I read on twitter earlier that Mertz for Wisconsin has been able to resume workouts and can return to practice on Thursday. Not sure if two days will be enough for him to play but my gut tells me yes. Can't play anything in that one as I simply don't know what Wisconsin is right now. One convincing win nearly three weeks ago against a crap opponent, and no idea who will be out/limited with the virus.

Over 72.5 is really, really tempting in OSU/Maryland. Terps need to be able to get the ground game going for their offense to work well. So my only question is what are the chances OSU really bottles them up at the LOS. And if so, what the the chances Maryland can run up some points against the 2s in the second half a la Rutgers - although that was a 64 so this is a bit of a jump. Going to have to stew on this one for a while.

The only two I have no feel for at all are Penn State/Nebraska and Michigan/Wisconsin. But only plays so far are Northwestern, Iowa and Rutgers.
Terrific thoughts... thanks.

I guess my understanding on Mertz is that he tested positive/symptoms on a Saturday. The 21 days would end on Friday. I am sure he can work out on the side obviously but I guess I'll dig more in the morning for clarity.

I'd like to get @HUNT in here with his impressions of the Illinois-Wisconsin opener as I know he has some different takes there.

Good point about run to get offense going re: Maryland... I mentioned options and live betting will be in play for me there, no doubt.
 
Nebraska continued their tradition of putting up a ton of yards with no points. 400 plus yds basically generated 6 points, as our TD came after an INT return to the 3 yard line. Believe we had 9 drives in NW territory. Just ridiculous. QB play was pretty bad again. I would think they just go to McCaffrey and become primarily a zone read, spread option team with some play action passes thrown in, but who knows. Defense played better in the first half minus the two starters who were suspended for the first half. One of the replacements had 2 INTs. Our front 7 has played well both games. I can't pick us to win this game, we just find the most excruciating ways to fuck games up.
 
Big Ten policy requires Mertz any player who tests positive for COVID-19 to miss at least 21 days and undergo cardiac screening before being cleared to return. Using that time frame, Mertz could resume team activities Friday. UW has not confirmed the timeline.

My understanding was that they are removed from any team activities for 14 of the 21 days and then the remaining 7 of the 21 days is a re-acclimation period for conditioning and practice. So I thought he could return to "team activities" before Friday.

“He’s starting the process of coming back,” Chryst said. “His tests are all done. I think he’ll be able to have some practice. We’ll see if it’s enough practice time. You don’t know that. Each guy is different. How do they handle all of that? We’ll see on him.”

That was from the Monday article. I take it to mean he will be practicing this week, if not today then Wed/Thurs....teams traveling for a road game don't practice on Friday do they?
 
Really like Nebraska +3 this week. Will also be on them 1H. @tOSU and @NW is a tough way to start the season. Although the final scores were not that close, thought Neb competed well in the 1H of both games. Now, they get a disinterested PSU team with an early start. Sign me up.
 
Really like Nebraska +3 this week. Will also be on them 1H. @tOSU and @NW is a tough way to start the season. Although the final scores were not that close, thought Neb competed well in the 1H of both games. Now, they get a disinterested PSU team with an early start. Sign me up.
Yeah,. it has been a tough start for them... missing a game and obviously playing the best team and a top 4 team or so.
 
I didn't mention it, or not enough... but Indiana has Ohio State next week. I keep seeing more and more talk about that game.

This could be a funky start...hence why I like to bet this one Live if possible.
 
Michigan will make some changes in secondary is my guess this week from reading the tea leaves...

It will have to be young guys, who are highly rated...but again...young. We'll see.

By the way, may guy Milton hasn't been too bad so far. He finally threw some picks in 4th Saturday but that is gonna happen when you are pressing down double digits. I think for a guy in just 3 career starts, he has been 'solid' with room for improvement. One thing here, a few receivers have come out and said they have run wrong routes (wtf). That isn't helping whatsoever.

Fwiw, the avatar is staying till my betting heater starts to subside... (yup, superstitious -- and as I type this...the song popped on my spotify feed).
 
Wisconsin starting quarterback Graham Mertz remains "in the protocol" as he recovers from COVID-19, but could return for Saturday's game against Michigan.

Badgers offensive coordinator Joe Rudolph said Wednesday that Mertz's status depends on his preparation time this week and if he gets clearance from the team's sports medicine staff. Mertz had a record-setting performance Oct. 23 in a season-opening win against Illinois but tested positive for COVID-19 the following day, sources said. Big Ten rules state that any player who tests positive must self-isolate for 10 days and cannot return to competition for 21 days.

Backup quarterback Chase Wolf also tested positive, as No. 13 Wisconsin endured a COVID-19 outbreak that forced the cancellations of games with Nebraska (Oct. 31) and Purdue (Nov. 7). Rudolph did not confirm which quarterbacks are practicing this week.

"The big question mark is going to be if we can get Graham to the point where he's practicing, will he have enough in that you feel confident with him? That's still in the air," Rudolph said. "I wish I could be more definitive for you guys. ... We've just got to keep working through the week and see where we're at, listen to our training staff."

 
Not 100% certain on this yet because he and those around him are so secretive but there's enough credible smoke to indicate that Rondale Moore is suiting up saturday night. Won't really know officially until Friday or even gameday though so tough to do anything with that info.
 
This conference BLOWS!! A lot of these teams needed the exhibition games in early Sept. The big name schools with shitty coaches who get out coached weekly (khaki, peanut) are getting EXPOSED! They’ll blame COVID and big name losses (carries some merit) but holy shit I think no fans in stands and getting right into it exposes just how bad they are as coaches.

The B1G completely f’d this season up anyway. No chance to reschedule games, OSU/Maryland had he potential to be the conference GOY, certainly entertaining and now we won’t see it.

Sorry, but this is brutal. I’d rather there had been no season at this point. Wisky already out two games, what a joke.
 
On the let's see who's playing trend....

Quote from Brohm yesterday:
'The virus is still out there, potentially gaining momentum.'

'We've had some things happen, just not to that level (of Wisconsin or Maryland).'

No word on who but i'd assume a couple starters are out with a comment like that. Likely won't know until Saturday.
 
Imo everything about the Whisky v. Illinois game/boxscore was a mirage. Feeling nothing more than knowing that and the fact they quit playing cuz they had no qbs and that at least Michigan has been playing and trying to figure it out is good. I dont understand why their dbs use their hands so dumbly, I played Michigan. That league is as dirty as any now, so I hope some cheating ref doesnt make a cheating call to mess with the win prob
 
it sure seems like it to me.....which makes me think i gotta be wrong

lmao. Na, I still think perception on minny is at least as good as on iowa. I saw about 55/45 split betting minny. I love wvu in morning so gonna go put in a big 2 teamer with iowa/wvu!!
 
Imo everything about the Whisky v. Illinois game/boxscore was a mirage. Feeling nothing more than knowing that and the fact they quit playing cuz they had no qbs and that at least Michigan has been playing and trying to figure it out is good. I dont understand why their dbs use their hands so dumbly, I played Michigan. That league is as dirty as any now, so I hope some cheating ref doesnt make a cheating call to mess with the win prob
I agree with Michigan here. Earlier in week at pk was pass for me, but with Mertz uncertainty (at very least limited practice) and Wisconsin only playing Illinois, good buy low/sell high (an inflated high IMO). I can’t help but think value is with UM.
 
Oh wow, I didn’t even realize they got over the tt. Once it was 20-0 I felt good enough to turn off. I was incredibly confident they got anywhere close to that total they were covering easy. Good call
 
Oh wow, I didn’t even realize they got over the tt. Once it was 20-0 I felt good enough to turn off. I was incredibly confident they got anywhere close to that total they were covering easy. Good call
I saw 14-0 with half of 2nd left... felt GREAT...saw 14-0 late third...said screw this and turned off.
 
I agree with Michigan here. Earlier in week at pk was pass for me, but with Mertz uncertainty (at very least limited practice) and Wisconsin only playing Illinois, good buy low/sell high (an inflated high IMO). I can’t help but think value is with UM.
Fwiw, I took the +4.5 just to have the number. I'm hoping for a buyback position perhaps. I'm not endorsing a play at all but did take it late Thursday.
 
I just kind of assumed he was and it was baked into the 4/4.5...so Wisconsin was a 4/4.5 pt favorite with some QB nobody knows the name of? That is fucked up.
 
I just kind of assumed he was and it was baked into the 4/4.5...so Wisconsin was a 4/4.5 pt favorite with some QB nobody knows the name of? That is fucked up.

Yeah, that was my read as well.

Obviously, we don't know who all the missing players will be tonight... That's really the hard part here... because with protocol it HAS to be double digits players.
 
Well, the fact that Groshek had 14 carries week 1...he had 42 all of last year. He's not a bad player, just not what you expect at the top of Wisconsin's RB rotation. Also think these receivers are the weakest that Michigan will have faced this year, biggest question for me is does Michigan have somebody who can effectively cover a TE?
 
Well, the fact that Groshek had 14 carries week 1...he had 42 all of last year. He's not a bad player, just not what you expect at the top of Wisconsin's RB rotation. Also think these receivers are the weakest that Michigan will have faced this year, biggest question for me is does Michigan have somebody who can effectively cover a TE?
We'll see. They are shuffling and playing some other guys this week. I think they'll have a bit of a spark but make mistakes obviously. No Hutch is big too on the line.
 
Still mixed messages on Rondale suiting hope. Literally have no clue either way at this point...

positive side for Purdue seems to be that the majority of covid positives were not from football so expect a relatively full roster outside of potentially Karlaftis and whatever happens with Moore
 
Still mixed messages on Rondale suiting hope. Literally have no clue either way at this point...

positive side for Purdue seems to be that the majority of covid positives were not from football so expect a relatively full roster outside of potentially Karlaftis and whatever happens with Moore
Showing Moore is out.
 
Two OL and two DL out tonight .

Paye is projected top 5 draft and Hutch will leave early likely. On other side Mayfield is also a 1st rounder.

So, line makes sense to keep moving with Mertz playing.

Go points.
 
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Nebraska continued their tradition of putting up a ton of yards with no points. 400 plus yds basically generated 6 points, as our TD came after an INT return to the 3 yard line. Believe we had 9 drives in NW territory. Just ridiculous. QB play was pretty bad again. I would think they just go to McCaffrey and become primarily a zone read, spread option team with some play action passes thrown in, but who knows. Defense played better in the first half minus the two starters who were suspended for the first half. One of the replacements had 2 INTs. Our front 7 has played well both games. I can't pick us to win this game, we just find the most excruciating ways to fuck games up.





 
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