Took notes on couple Sparty/IU podcasts and beefed it with some of my research:
Sparty O very deliberate, will huddle. Want to slow game down. Establish the run. Keep game low-scoring.
Offensive line play a disaster: four returning starters, but LT Chewins missed two games so far (he's still listed as questionable) and center been rotation, both centers been getting blasted. Lack of confidence--youth: experienced guys (Chewins and Beedle) with injury issues. Missing center Brian Allen. Lacking leadership at o-line. Need to get protection. Key to find balance on offense. Sparty hasn't been able to run the ball, can't find time for QB to throw. USU (Sparty right tackle got killed) and ASU got some decent pressure. Offense majorly on Lewerke's shoulders. IU: three sacks vs Ball State, last year three sacks vs Wiscy, Sparty, Maryland. IU D been very effective when at least getting a lot of hurries.
Sparty strength: Lewerke and receivers (but also protection issue). IU D ranked 8th nationally against the pass (soft schedule: FIU, UVa with dual-threat, Ball State) Senior leader Crawford at safety who leads team with 15 tackles, also has 2 TFL, one sack, one pick six. Two experienced corners in Riggins and Brown
MSU weakness (run game) = IU weakness. Young defense allowing 4.8 YPC. FIU ran pretty well, UVA had dual-threat quarterback, Ball State, though, had 200 yards rushing and gashed Indiana with explosive run plays (13, 14, 15, 25 yard runs) which is supposed to be a key trait of IU coach Tom Allen to stop. But Sparty couldn‘t even run vs ASU who let SD State run for 311 yards and who has new DC and lost major pieces to d-line. LJ Scott hamstring probably ok
Defense: Top d-back Josiah Scott still missing, hurting pass defense. Layne holding his own against the best of the best (ie Harry). The problem is really the linebackers in pass coverage.
Run D looking great statistically but hasn't faced even the tiniest semblance of a formidable rush attack--opponents attacking through the pass. For example: Utah State's leading rusher 25 yards, 25 carries but QB Jordan Love moved ball downfield at will. ASU leading carrier 4.3 YPC.But interestingly, run is IU's focus. Will be hard to run against Sparty. Sparty: returning basically almost everyone on front 7. Stevie Scott power back for IU great start to the season, great for possession-oriented team, been huge component after injury to starting back Gest and suspension of rb Ellison, but also weak schedule so far, too much on freshman's shoulders against Sparty? But will be helped by veteran o-line returning everyone from a year ago. Great rotation of 8 or 9 guys. Unlike last year, staying healthy
IU needs to succeed in passing game (like USU, ASU)
IU loves up tempo (rare for Big 10 schools) and tempo has made Sparty's defense struggle in both games so far. Should exploit Sparty with quick passes out to flats. Deep group of receivers led by Hale and Westbrook (6-3 and 6-4), Sparty struggling to get pressure on quarterback. Put in bold because I feel like this is the key for IU here. Ramsey doesn't throw downfield but he doesn't need to. He can build rhythm with underneath throws against Sparty linebackers who since last year (see dink and dunk disaster vs NW) have proven to be weak in pass coverage. Much like USU and ASU.
IU plays Sparty very tough historically
Special teams: Punter out, quarterback will punt. IU has dangerous punt returner.
Up in the air: Sparty typically lays an egg in opener and then had to deal with Desert. Are the for real? How good is Stevie Scott really? Paltry Sparty rush attack vs young and struggling IU run defense.
A game worth watching to find things out about Sparty rush attack and IU run defense.
2016 again for Sparty?
Sparty off bye week means nothing based on recent history.
Broader scope:
Point total when LJ Scott averages fewer than 4 YPC. since 2017: 35 against Bowling Green, 17 vs Iowa, 17 vs Indiana, 17 vs Northwestern (thru 4Q) 27 vs Penn State, 3 vs Ohio State, 40 vs Rutgers, 38 vs Utah State, 13 vs Arizona State.
Penn State is the one conference exception here. PSU was deflated after the huge loss against Ohio State, had to hold a players-only meeting, totally lacked motivation. Lewerke threw for 400 yards there. Then Rutgers and Bowling Green
But otherwise we see no more than 17 points against a Power 5 school (not including Rutgers) when Scott can't run.
Let's see the defenses (in terms of 2017 opposing YPC) Sparty rush attack was dealing with: Bowling Green 128th, Iowa 49th, Indiana 38th, Northwestern 9th, Penn State 15th, Ohio State 3rd, Utah State was 79th last year (got gashed by Wiscy and Wake, but returned significant experience in front 7) Arizona State was 99th last year (5 YPC both home in desert and away) and lost significant pieces in front 7
Success running against: Minnesota 92nd, Western Michigan 69th, Maryland 89th (still only 17 points, game in snow so it was basically run only)
I think Sparty has its best game on the ground against retooling Indy d-line. So closer to 4 ypc. Between pass protection and Indy secondary Lewerke wont have too good of a day despite awesome receivers. I think maybe 23 points? Indy I think has the key on O with passing underneath. Sparty linebackers will have to respect the flats which can create more room up the middle for Stevie Scott, easily Sparty‘s most formidable opposing rush attack. I‘ll say 21-24 points for Indy.
Play: IU +5.5 (will spread keep climbing)
