B1G week 4 thread

HUNT

HUNT

CTG Partner
Staff member
As you all may have noticed, @B.A.R. is a much better writer than myself. Sorry you're not gonna get the goods from my weeks. Props to him and his analysis it's always much appreciated.

Chattanooga @ Illinois- I don't know shit about Chattanooga except it's a cool city. Illinois seems to have a bizarre schedule this year with B1G games mixed in OOC early. You can go to the game for $5.00. Wow!

Miami OH @ Northwestern-NW is pretty bad and Miami can score a little. Poor Pat. Tix are $7.00 to watch the Motor City Bowl bowl in September.

Indiana @Cincinatti- Indiana lol. Such a sorry ass team and lucky to beat some sorry ass teams. $117.00 to go to Nippy Stadium and watch a banger.

Maryland @ Michigan- Michigan's first "test" I'm a fan of Maryland and think this will be closer than people think. $72.00 to get in the big house.

CMU @PSU-PSU gets a break after going to Auburn. PSU looks pretty damn good I must say. $21.00 to go.

Minnesota @Michigan State-Minnesota's first test. Sparty will look much better than this past week imo. $39.00 to attend.

Iowa @ Rutgers-Should be a physical boring ass game. Have fun if you go. 37 bucks.

Wisconsin @ Ohio State- 7:30 game. Ohio State clicked yesterday. Wisconsin will try to slow the game down per usual. 70 bones gets you in.

FAU @ Purdue- Wild one in Syracuse for the Boilers, got to wonder where their mindset is here. 23 bucks to go see if their minds are right or not.

GL all
 
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HUNT said:
As you all may have noticed, @B.A.R. is a much better writer than myself. Sorry you're not gonna get the goods from my weeks. Props to him and his analysis it's always much appreciated.

Chattanooga @ Illinois- I don't know shit about Chattanooga except it's a cool city. Illinois seems to have a bizarre schedule this year with B1G games mixed in OOC early. You can go to the game for $5.00. Wow!

Miami OH @ Northwestern-NW is pretty bad and Miami can score a little. Poor Pat. Tix are $7.00 to watch the Motor City Bowl bowl in September.

Indiana @Cincinatti- Indiana lol. Such a sorry ass team and lucky to beat some sorry ass teams. $117.00 to go to Nippy Stadium and watch a banger.

Maryland @ Michigan- Michigan's first "test" I'm a fan of Maryland and think this will be closer than people think. $72.00 to get in the big house.

CMU @PSU-PSU gets a break after going to Auburn. PSU looks pretty damn good I must say. $21.00 to go.

Minnesota @Michigan State-Minnesota's first test. Sparty will look much better than this past week imo. $39.00 to attend.

Iowa @ Rutgers-Should be a physical boring ass game. Have fun if you go. 37 bucks.

Wisconsin @ Ohio State- 7:30 game. Ohio State clicked yesterday. Wisconsin will try to slow the game down per usual. 70 bones gets you in.

FAU @ Purdue- Wild one in Syracuse for the Boilers, got to wonder where their mindset is here. 23 bucks to go see if their minds are right or not.

GL all
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I find it interesting when you provide the ticket prices.

I went against the grain last week and bet on O.U.. You know far more than I, but I will probably take Michigan in some way.

Thank you for the Bama 1qtr bet...I straight tailed you. Did not bet 1H
 
That sucks for Minnesota and Autmen-Bell. He has 88 career catches and is certainly their most dependable and looked upon receiver the last two years.

One thing I am always curious about, and in trying to predict outcomes, am never quite sure how a team will play in their first game vs a good/or somewhat good team compared to their weak opening opponents.

There can be some doubt because things that a team was able to do without much effort or difficulty vs their first opponents isn't always the same vs the better team.

So Michigan and Minnesota haven't played anyone at all who tested or challenged them in any kind of meaningful way. I believe they should be equipped and suited to handle better challenges, but early on sometimes there can be an adjustment. Where as, Michigan State just got done playing a good team, Maryland just got done playing a good team. To a point, that gives MSU and Maryland some advantage - that advantage may be shortlived or not enough, but it is a check in their preverbial columns. Even Miami, Oh has played Kentucky and Cincinnati...so while they didn't fair especially well in either game in terms of the final outcome, they have been tested vs good teams, players, schemes and coaches. Northwestern on the ohter hand has lost to a first year HC in a previously poor Duke team and a Southern Illinois team that came in struggling.
 
good stuff

i like maryland on only one side of the ball, but get what you're saying.

really wanted minny as a FG dog. can't back them as a FG fav on road. any value there is gone.
 
bones said:
I find it interesting when you provide the ticket prices.

I went against the grain last week and bet on O.U.. You know far more than I, but I will probably take Michigan in some way.

Thank you for the Bama 1qtr bet...I straight tailed you. Did not bet 1H
Click to expand...

You are welcome bones. I enjoy flashing the ticket prices for some reason. Started doing it a few years ago to compare it to the teams in my area (Detroit) and it's interesting on the price differentials.
 
Yanks27Sox9 said:
good stuff

i like maryland on only one side of the ball, but get what you're saying.

really wanted minny as a FG dog. can't back them as a FG fav on road. any value there is gone.
Click to expand...


I agree with Minny, this is the type of shit sparty wins.
 
Good morning all,

Here are my rambling thoughts for the week...

Week 3 Recap:


I'll start with the home team... Michigan did what it should versus patsy opponent #3... a banged up Uconn team...

A few guys with injuries sat out to get ready for Big Ten Season. JJ was very solid again, but also made some mistakes (teachable moments) which will be good in the long run. They played 8 QB's, and 7 of those completed a pass. pretty cool for some walk-ons to get some live action and whatnot. Going into the year, most thought that last year's Joe Moore award-winning OL might be even better. So far, via injuries and missed assignments this has been more of a concern than expected. Hopefully with guys getting healthy and adjustments being made things get shored up.

The defensive line got to the QB a lot versus Colorado State, but the last two games that has fallen off. I noticed that Colly St gave up even more sacks in week 2, so I think we can see what that is more indicative of. All that being said, they are shuffling a lot of guys in and out and I expect that the line improves on the pass rush each week. The run defense is expected to be excellent, and we'll get a true answer there over the next month or so.

Specials teams are OUTSTANDING right now. Nothing more, nothing less.

Michigan State got absolutely pounded out in Seattle. I honestly wasn't sure what to think going into this game. The line screamed to take the Huskies. The Penix factor (always loves playing MSU) was there... I just wasn't sure about the Washington competition leading up to the game. As Tucker said after the game, Washington found a match-up problem and just went after it. The MSU pass defense was atrocious last year and doesn't look like they have improved in that aspect. I do think Sparty is finding some more offensive weapons with Reed out that will help down the line. The schedule is murder till November, if they can go 2-3 in this stretch, they should be very happy.

Nice come from behind win for Maryland.... SMU honestly left around 14-17 points out there. As a live bettor of over 66.5, I am still a bit raw over this. The Terps had really good balance here though, despite being outgained and giving up 30 first downs. The bottom line is, they won the game and made the plays they had to in a big ole lookahead game...

Ohio State did what they do offensively. As a holder of TT's in both half and game I was pretty happy with this. I am assuming that Henderson sitting early after getting hurt was out of caution. The defense here is still a concern, Toledo had 275 yards after their first possession of the 3rd. Now, in blowouts, this happens. All that being said, the Rockets had three healthy TD drives.

Nebraska responded to a new coach for exactly one drive. This team has zero value for now, even when you might think they do.

Penn State is definitely a better team than Auburn and a 3rd quarter of dominance proved that. I don't think the final score is totally indicative of this game but there is no doubt the better team won. What I am looking for this first month or so with the Lions is how they run the ball. They might have their guy in Singleton. They certainly defend the run well. With a gutty, vet QB and a stud waiting in the wings, this season could be pretty nice for PSU.

Oh Northwestern, how the mighty have fallen. Pretty even box here, but the turnovers absolutely killed the Cats.

I had Indiana in a ML parlay. Each end of this parlay was a come from behind win. The Hoosier end was the most unlikely. I cannot explain this game to be honest, with over 100 yards offense they ONLY had 60 points in regulation.

Minnesota rolled as they should have versus a bad Colorado team. I started to submit their TT and never finished it off. Doh! Oh well. Fleck has them playing tough football. Now, they step into B10 season with a lot of momentum and confidence. The loss of the WR hurts, no doubt.

Rutgers pulled a Rutgers, another ugly win. I saw nothing here, but the score was very Rutgers-ish. The 59 yards passing is scary though. A pick 6 was huge in this game and Temple's 2nd score was on a huge play. That is all I have gathered from this game.

Wisconsin destroyed NMSU. We all know how bad that school is at football, so no surprise here.

Now, to the longest game of the week...Iowa and Nevada!! I layed the 23.5 and have no regrets. I was close to buying out after the 17th delay, but the gambling gods struck for us here in a well-deserved cover. This was a situation for Iowa to get 'healthy' and get a few offensive scores. The bottom line here, Iowa WILL win a game this year in conference they should not due to that defense. All in all, though, that offense is ugly.


Back later with thoughts on this weeks games...
 
HUNT said:
As a michigan fan, I'm terrified of October 15. More so than Iowa.
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Absolutely.

This one is getting more and more imposing.

Per On3 reports, looks like that one is all but set in stone as a Big Noon kick-off.

Iowa luckily is a noon kick as well.

Iowa scares me as far as the turnover aspect.
 
I totally forgot, Cade out awhile. Jim said at least a few weeks. Gathering different statements, I'd guess more like a month.

Luckily all 7 backups have gotten work lololol.
 
Also I'm not a recruiting follower, so I'm guessing it was expecting, but Singleton the RB for PS is a stud.
 
CPA-hole said:
Also I'm not a recruiting follower, so I'm guessing it was expecting, but Singleton the RB for PS is a stud.
Click to expand...
Recruiting is always interesting.

I follow closely.

You never know what you'll get. Michigan recruits like Ronnie Bell and Hassan Haskins (Tennessee Titans now) were lambasted when offered and signed.

Just for instance ...

Now, Singleton was a 5 star I believe...

The big thing now is NIL and has made recruiting wild.

To note as well, the Irish commits are looking around. They have a no visit policy but guys aren't following that. A few made quiet visits to UM last weekend.
 
Leaning towards Maryland plus the points. I’d be surprised if Michigan’s defense approached last years bunch and I think the Terps can score some here. Feels like 34-24 type game to me
 
Marsski said:
Leaning towards Maryland plus the points. I’d be surprised if Michigan’s defense approached last years bunch and I think the Terps can score some here. Feels like 34-24 type game to me
Click to expand...
Same, I took under 65, just like under better than side but think Terps are the side at that number. Thinking Harbaugh does the Jimbo Fisheresque/NFLish thing where he tries to slow the game down and hold the ball as much as possible against an opponent with a legit offense so as to keep it away from them (which it's worth noting is not the ideal strategy when you have the clear all-around talent advantage that UM has here - when you have more talent, you should want as many plays run as possible so as to reduce variance). Difficult to run away and hide when you're taking the air out of the ball.
 
I had a huge write-up on the Illinois and Chattanooga game... but... ;)

Purdue hosts FAU this week off another heartbreaker... the first cap angle here is motivation... Can Purdue get up for this game coming off that Cuse debacle? They have a big game up in Minneapolis next week, so I am sure the focus won't be fully on the Owls. FAU has given up 41 and 40 in their losses. This is a get healthy game for the Purdue offense. Do they want to? Only way here for me is finding value at halftime maybe (sluggish start).

Pitiful Northwestern tries to get back up off the mat versus Miami-Oh. They could use a win here, as Happy Valley awaits next weekend. Miami owns a victory over Bobby Morris coupled with losing by 20+ to Kentucky and Cincy. Maybe @Marsski can chime in on our friends from the MAC.

Iowa visits Rutgers, and the total is around 34. Let the excitement begin! The Scarlet Knights win ugly games. That is simply having a good coach who can dig in. This one will come down to turnovers I would assume. No clue how Rutgers moves the ball here at all. My angle here would be looking at maybe a live TT or something to do with quarters. Iowa has a B10 Championship Game rematch next week. Meanwhile, Rutgers will head to the shoe for their mauling.

Indiana, off their comeback win, head to Cincinnati to conclude the home and home series. The Hoosiers have managed to come in undefeated (remember their RSW was 4/4.5). The Bearcats have two blowouts versus patsies and the opening loss to Arkansas. They started slow last week, then turned it on a bit. Tough game here, I honestly do not know. I am still trying to figure this Hoosiers team out in full. I expected much worse from them. Thoughts here are much appreciated.

Penn State hosts the Chips at home off the huge win at Aubbie. Next week brings Northwestern to town, so the Lions have a few exhibitions before getting to the meat of the Big Ten schedule. We can ignore the CMU win versus Bucknell. They have given up 38 and 58 in losses to USA and Okie Lite. Now, we'll see a TT around 46 or so. The question is how much PSU wants to 'push' on offense. Tough call to be honest. I would say the 1st half number, but off the huge win they could be a bit flat. The Chips have scored pretty well with big deficits in the 2nd half of both losses.

Alright, now to the three big ones in the conference....

Ohio State host Wisconsin. The Badgers have hammered two patsies and lost a weird one to Wazzou. Can they be aggressive enough on offense to keep this close? We know OSU can be scored on. The problem is, their offense simply overwhelms you. The Badgers will have to control clock and score TD's to keep in this one...(also, punch them in the mouth, they don't like that).

Minnesota heads to Michigan State without their top receiver. This is such an interesting game. We haven't seen Minnesota versus even an average team yet. This makes them somewhat of a mystery. We know they can run and pound the ball. The defense seems to be pretty good. On the other hand, we saw a P5 team expose the MSU secondary last week. They got picked on and didn't adjust well. This seems much like last year. My observation early in the season was they were successfully doing their bend-don't-break defense. Hey, give up some yards and hope to limit to FG's. That is their best strategy moving forward. The matchup here will be MSU front vs Ibrahim. If he can get yards early, that opens up so much. First cap of this game is that, imo. Sparty seems to have developed some more weapons on offense. One thing I will be looking at here is how they run. The transfers looked really solid the first couple of weeks. Last week was a whole different story. Thorne needs that balance.
 
Last, but not least, the Big Noon game in Ann Arbor...

This is a big game for Locksley...

-His teams have started hot and swooned all too many times
-They have a veteran QB and several good recruits that have been in the system for a bit now
-He needs a signature win vs one of these top B10 East programs

What do we know so far?

-Reports I have read from the Maryland side are they are not totally happy with the WR play so far
-They are pretty happy with the RBs
-The defense was not good versus SMU. Way too many yards and first downs
-Granted, SMU scored 27, but they could have had 40 or so.
-Charlotte gained almost 400 in the blowout the week prior

How has this series went recently (Harbaugh era)?

2021 College Park 59-18
2019 College Park 38-7
2018 Ann Arbor 42-21
2017 College Park 35-10
2016 Ann Arbor 59-3
2015 College Park 28-0

Frankly, none of this has been close. The 2018 game had some intrigue early, but that was about it.

This will be the 1st start for JJ against a conference opponent. The game will speed up a bit for him and he will have to make good decisions. So far, he is much better at checking down and throwing a softer ball in those shorter routes. I don' think you'll see as many designed run plays for him the next few weeks due to the McNamara injury. I wouldn't be surprised if they sat Donovan Edwards once again. His injury is not severe, just needs some rest. Remember, last year he was 'let loose' in this game via the pass. Corum obviously wants to show out versus his hometown team, and Stokes will show us if he is ready to play real teams....

I know some guys mentioned a 'run run run' type game here from Jim and Company...I don't see it, until they have a comfortable lead. I am predicating this somewhat on Edwards sitting this one out. I think we'll see a solid amount of the air attack and I am sure they have 1-2 wrinkles they have been saving for this week and Iowa...

The fascinating part will be on defense. They want to get to Taulia with 4 but might need Minter's blitz packages. Taulia is known to get a bit anxious, so that will be a huge key here. That is the fun part to watch and will help with future capping...


Total went 62 to 65 pretty quickly this week. I saw a few write-ups from Maryland writers, and they do not have much confidence. That surprised me a bit. The longer this stays close, the more confidence the Terps can get. That is another reason I think JH and company will be aggressive early.

Betting-wise, nothing as of yet...true prediction tomorrow...
 
One other UM note -- one of their projected biggest stars on offense MAY be shutting it down for the season via surgery. Shall see. Big loss but lost of depth luckily.
 
B.A.R. said:
Last, but not least, the Big Noon game in Ann Arbor...

This is a big game for Locksley...

-His teams have started hot and swooned all too many times
-They have a veteran QB and several good recruits that have been in the system for a bit now
-He needs a signature win vs one of these top B10 East programs

What do we know so far?

-Reports I have read from the Maryland side are they are not totally happy with the WR play so far
-They are pretty happy with the RBs
-The defense was not good versus SMU. Way too many yards and first downs
-Granted, SMU scored 27, but they could have had 40 or so.
-Charlotte gained almost 400 in the blowout the week prior

How has this series went recently (Harbaugh era)?

2021 College Park 59-18
2019 College Park 38-7
2018 Ann Arbor 42-21
2017 College Park 35-10
2016 Ann Arbor 59-3
2015 College Park 28-0

Frankly, none of this has been close. The 2018 game had some intrigue early, but that was about it.

This will be the 1st start for JJ against a conference opponent. The game will speed up a bit for him and he will have to make good decisions. So far, he is much better at checking down and throwing a softer ball in those shorter routes. I don' think you'll see as many designed run plays for him the next few weeks due to the McNamara injury. I wouldn't be surprised if they sat Donovan Edwards once again. His injury is not severe, just needs some rest. Remember, last year he was 'let loose' in this game via the pass. Corum obviously wants to show out versus his hometown team, and Stokes will show us if he is ready to play real teams....

I know some guys mentioned a 'run run run' type game here from Jim and Company...I don't see it, until they have a comfortable lead. I am predicating this somewhat on Edwards sitting this one out. I think we'll see a solid amount of the air attack and I am sure they have 1-2 wrinkles they have been saving for this week and Iowa...

The fascinating part will be on defense. They want to get to Taulia with 4 but might need Minter's blitz packages. Taulia is known to get a bit anxious, so that will be a huge key here. That is the fun part to watch and will help with future capping...


Total went 62 to 65 pretty quickly this week. I saw a few write-ups from Maryland writers, and they do not have much confidence. That surprised me a bit. The longer this stays close, the more confidence the Terps can get. That is another reason I think JH and company will be aggressive early.

Betting-wise, nothing as of yet...true prediction tomorrow...
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Circa actually opened total at 59.5 on Sunday - I thought it seemed very low so I put 4u on it with plans to come back the other way with 2/3u. BOL opened 62.5 and Circa finally followed. Then got bet up to 65.5. I bet 2u on the U64.5 - was hoping it'd move up closer to 70 but didn't happen. Slowly coming down now. So have net 2u on Over 59.5. they way SMU moved on Maryland last week not too worried about Michigan unless they kick FG - just hoping Maryland can put some points on the board.
 
B.A.R. said:
I had a huge write-up on the Illinois and Chattanooga game... but... ;)

Purdue hosts FAU this week off another heartbreaker... the first cap angle here is motivation... Can Purdue get up for this game coming off that Cuse debacle? They have a big game up in Minneapolis next week, so I am sure the focus won't be fully on the Owls. FAU has given up 41 and 40 in their losses. This is a get healthy game for the Purdue offense. Do they want to? Only way here for me is finding value at halftime maybe (sluggish start).

Pitiful Northwestern tries to get back up off the mat versus Miami-Oh. They could use a win here, as Happy Valley awaits next weekend. Miami owns a victory over Bobby Morris coupled with losing by 20+ to Kentucky and Cincy. Maybe @Marsski can chime in on our friends from the MAC.

Iowa visits Rutgers, and the total is around 34. Let the excitement begin! The Scarlet Knights win ugly games. That is simply having a good coach who can dig in. This one will come down to turnovers I would assume. No clue how Rutgers moves the ball here at all. My angle here would be looking at maybe a live TT or something to do with quarters. Iowa has a B10 Championship Game rematch next week. Meanwhile, Rutgers will head to the shoe for their mauling.

Indiana, off their comeback win, head to Cincinnati to conclude the home and home series. The Hoosiers have managed to come in undefeated (remember their RSW was 4/4.5). The Bearcats have two blowouts versus patsies and the opening loss to Arkansas. They started slow last week, then turned it on a bit. Tough game here, I honestly do not know. I am still trying to figure this Hoosiers team out in full. I expected much worse from them. Thoughts here are much appreciated.

Penn State hosts the Chips at home off the huge win at Aubbie. Next week brings Northwestern to town, so the Lions have a few exhibitions before getting to the meat of the Big Ten schedule. We can ignore the CMU win versus Bucknell. They have given up 38 and 58 in losses to USA and Okie Lite. Now, we'll see a TT around 46 or so. The question is how much PSU wants to 'push' on offense. Tough call to be honest. I would say the 1st half number, but off the huge win they could be a bit flat. The Chips have scored pretty well with big deficits in the 2nd half of both losses.

Alright, now to the three big ones in the conference....

Ohio State host Wisconsin. The Badgers have hammered two patsies and lost a weird one to Wazzou. Can they be aggressive enough on offense to keep this close? We know OSU can be scored on. The problem is, their offense simply overwhelms you. The Badgers will have to control clock and score TD's to keep in this one...(also, punch them in the mouth, they don't like that).

Minnesota heads to Michigan State without their top receiver. This is such an interesting game. We haven't seen Minnesota versus even an average team yet. This makes them somewhat of a mystery. We know they can run and pound the ball. The defense seems to be pretty good. On the other hand, we saw a P5 team expose the MSU secondary last week. They got picked on and didn't adjust well. This seems much like last year. My observation early in the season was they were successfully doing their bend-don't-break defense. Hey, give up some yards and hope to limit to FG's. That is their best strategy moving forward. The matchup here will be MSU front vs Ibrahim. If he can get yards early, that opens up so much. First cap of this game is that, imo. Sparty seems to have developed some more weapons on offense. One thing I will be looking at here is how they run. The transfers looked really solid the first couple of weeks. Last week was a whole different story. Thorne needs that balance.
Click to expand...
I like Miami O. +7.5…sprinkle on the ML. They were up early on Cincy 17-7 and gave them problems defensively with three turnovers and three sacks. Cincy scored 31 unanswered but the Redskins got stopped on the goal line and could have cut the score to 31-24….a little misleading final IMO.

Serious class relief here facing the Wildcats who basically run #26 Hull all game and have zero other playmakers. Miami's QB Gabbert got hurt in the first game but the backup has some seasoning now and should have more time to throw than he did vs Cincy.
I think you got a live dog and it seems to be asking a lot to cover more than 7 with an offensively inept team…
 
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Many of the UM questionable guys are out.

No pregame bets....

I'll say pretty tight into the 3rd...

Mich 41-27
 
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