B1G week 3 thread

HUNT

HUNT

CTG Partner
Staff member
Random thoughts..

Thanks for all the participation from everybody the last few weeks. Love the discussions.

Will start from local perspective..

Watched the full Michigan game, as I do every week. Can't remember a worse 51-14 final than that game yesterday. Michigan looked disinterested after the first quarter and frankly was outplayed imo. The score was misleading. Sfla qb 1 was out from late second quarter for rest of game. Michigan had short fields due to special team blocks of punts and fg.

The run blocking was atrocious, abysmal. Michigan could not run at all. And they tried.. And tried.. That's why they went to the air. They could not control the blitz most of the time either. I was excited about the backs after last week but yesterday kind of tempered my expectations.. Because let's be honest.. The opponent was completely terrible imo.

I expect Colorado qb 1 to give Michigan fits. Lot of big plays given up yesterday by the Michigan d. and Colorado qb has plenty of experience.

Ohio state.. Watched most of that one too. I will note the weather was definitely a factor on both sides. Tremendous wind.

Tulsa, wow, just a terrible team yesterday. A ton of drops, looked very intimidated and their qb was just awful. Forced throws, many fell out of hand. Tulsa was a comedy of errors imo and they let osu do what they wanted. Osu had short fields the whole second half. Osu could have scored 65+ without trying and better weather. Tulsa had plenty of unforced errors and gifted osu most of second half.

Having said that, expect a great game next week. Imo Samuels needs to play every down. That kid is special.

Wisconsin and Iowa just too physical and big for their opponents. I was impressed with both in the time that I watched.

Great games next week. Should be something. Do not count Michigan state out. I've learned from being burned by them enough.

What did you guys think of the week? List your power rankings if you want. Be interesting to see where everyone is by people here.
 
I made a play on Colorado +19.5. I am normally somewhat good at figuring out where the line will move, but I just don't know on that one. If I wake up tomorrow to a 21, I'll be kicking myself, but wanted to get something down on it.

Will be hard to pass on Sparty at the current number of +7.5 at my only book with numbers up.

I've seen posts in here with Wisconsin at -28 and -31, but the first number I've seen is -34. That may still be a play based on what I've seen from both teams, but am a bit hesitant with Michigan State in the Big Ten opener coming the following week.
 
I don't see much of UM. I'll review on Tuesday when I get home. It seemed very underwhelming though.
 
A lot of 8 in the mix from what I read though...that's one thing about Jimmah...he adjusts unlike former coaches here.
 
I had one of those rare moments where I had pretty much planned to bet on one team and then saw the line and played the other. I don't know if I've ever done that before. I was hoping to take 3 scores with North Dakota State at Iowa in what should be a low scoring game. Then I see that Iowa is laying 8.5 so at that price I have to take the Hawks. It's up to 14 now which seems to be more appropriate. I have tons of respect for NDSU and it's a tricky little spot after El Assico but that 8.5 line pretty much says NDSU is a top 40 FBS team.. Nah. Total is 49 I still lean under there as well. NDSU has to run the ball to have success and good luck doing that consistently against Iowa. I saw the Charleston Southern game and I can say that Stick at QB isn't the type of QB that is going to take advantage of King and Co through the air. NDSU actually reminds me a lot of Iowa in terms of how they have consistently had success but the problem is they are just outgunned in a team that does and takes away what they want to do better than they do. NDSU has shown they can play and beat FBS teams but I think this is a different test. That being said, if this thing keeps getting bet up I'll prob be inclined to take NDSU and have a nice middle opp.
 
That is one strange line CK. So ndsu is better than Iowa state?

In other news for you motivation, bulletin board cappers.. Colorado supposedly is wearing 1994 throwback uniforms Saturday.
 
Colorado depth chart for this Saturday




CsPqARwWAAEzJtH.jpg
 
CrimsonK said:
I had one of those rare moments where I had pretty much planned to bet on one team and then saw the line and played the other. I don't know if I've ever done that before. I was hoping to take 3 scores with North Dakota State at Iowa in what should be a low scoring game. Then I see that Iowa is laying 8.5 so at that price I have to take the Hawks. It's up to 14 now which seems to be more appropriate. I have tons of respect for NDSU and it's a tricky little spot after El Assico but that 8.5 line pretty much says NDSU is a top 40 FBS team.. Nah. Total is 49 I still lean under there as well. NDSU has to run the ball to have success and good luck doing that consistently against Iowa. I saw the Charleston Southern game and I can say that Stick at QB isn't the type of QB that is going to take advantage of King and Co through the air. NDSU actually reminds me a lot of Iowa in terms of how they have consistently had success but the problem is they are just outgunned in a team that does and takes away what they want to do better than they do. NDSU has shown they can play and beat FBS teams but I think this is a different test. That being said, if this thing keeps getting bet up I'll prob be inclined to take NDSU and have a nice middle opp.
Click to expand...

Those 5dimes lines on the FCS games are meaningless. They take so little money that $96 can move the line 6pts. When BOL puts them up on game day what 5dimes is sitting at is completely ignored.
 
I dunno if it will have any affect anyways. Most of these kids weren't even alive then.

Tosu rented the sooner basketball arena for pep rally. Must be a big contingent going.
 
Thanks wise. You can mention them if you want lol. Get it off your chest.

Has anyone watched Northwestern? Are they that bad? Looking over these stats and I almost feel sorry for them.
 
Michigan's perceived struggles against UCF vastly exaggerated imo. 5 blocking 8 is reason enough to not run the ball down UCF's throat, everybody on the line graded out ok. Passing game looked fantastic which is a much better sign in proportion to what some thought of the running game.

Defense gave up one big play on a busted coverage and a few QB scrambles, literally nothing else all day. That plus a few drops on offense are nice nits for them to continue picking.

Hate to be redundant here but there's really no need to overcomplicate this, continue backing Michigan until they burn you in consecutive games. And be thankful for Colorado's schedule which gives us a number below 21 Saturday.
 
I respectfully disagree. I know pff graded then high, but this is ucf. What happens when they play Wisconsin? Msu? Won't work. Need to be more creative in the run game and blocking schemes if you want to beat those teams. Maybe Harbaugh was vanilla with the run game, I don't know.
 
So what do we have with Ohio State two games in? Hard to say, I know Malik Hooker is the best player in the secondary and I feel OK about the front 7 even though Tulsa got a few yards on them early in the run game. They had a walk-on in @ LB (Joe Burger) so that worries me a little but I think one of the starters was hurt.
JT and the offense really sputtered last week in the first half and really only got it together after the hour rain delay. JT is solid as they come and if you can go into East Lansing and hang 50 on Sparty I'm not worried about how he'll be in Norman. Agree that Samuels has looked extra special, he just has a great gear in the open field/swing passes. If I was Ohio State I would be concerned about the OL vs. Sooners D. I feel like the QB and skill positions are adequate, but how is the line going to do? If we get into a VA Tech scenario where they can't block Oklahoma, JT probably won't be able to do it singlehandedly....hes not elusive enough (like Pryor).

So how will OSU's offense look? I feel pretty good about the defense and the secondary is actually looking better than I thought they would. Hooker has been a ballhawk.
Out of sheer homerism, I will probably be on the Buckeyes. Much prefer Urban to Big Game Bob as well.
 
HUNT said:
That is one strange line CK. So ndsu is better than Iowa state?

In other news for you motivation, bulletin board cappers.. Colorado supposedly is wearing 1994 throwback uniforms Saturday.
Click to expand...

ndsu is def better than iowa st.
 
mostly same old nebraska at this point. defense is def better than last year, but still not at a top 20 level. pass rush is lacking, LB play is much improved, run defense is solid, CB play has been real good, pass coverage from Safeties is questionable esp against elite talent. Have done a good job of forcing some turnovers though more from bad QB play than anything.

offense is still a little up in the air. Wyoming stacked the box and blitzed a ton, so it sounds pretty similar to what Michigan saw. Led to a big game for Armstrong through the air. He still threw his trademark godawful red zone INT and then shortly after threw what should have been an easy pick 6 except the Wyoming guy dropped it. Other than that, he was pretty good. Screen game was the best it's been since Callahan was here. WR are still banged up. Westerkamp doesn't look quite right and Reilly injured his hamstring in the 3rd qtr and is questionable this week. Moore has taken on a bigger role and has looked good doing it. Pierson El still being eased back in. Morgan should be used more. Carter is open a lot but unused - been that way his entire career. Big test this week. If Neb cleans up all the stupid penalties and plays their B game, they should win it.
 
Good shit fellas. Thanks so much.

Have you guys seen Oregon? Really thinking about taking Nebraska here.
 
HUNT said:
Good shit fellas. Thanks so much.

Have you guys seen Oregon? Really thinking about taking Nebraska here.
Click to expand...

Seeing Oregon a 24 pt. Favorite over UVA seemed normal to me. Seeing Cornhole a favorite over Oregon seems really odd, given history of programs the last several years. Given the line and current ticket counts heavily favoring Oregon as a public dog, I'll likely throw a small wager on Braska
 
EFC1878 said:
And not by a very small margin, in my opinion.
Click to expand...

Ya, sagarin has a 9 pt disparity between NDSU down to Iowa State and 15 pt (18 with HFA) from Iowa down to NDSU. Not that I consider his numbers to be the most accurate but it's a tool I use
 
I prob missed both numbers on Wisconsin and over. But that being said, can anybody make a case for Ga St and/or under? -34 and O/U 49
 
HUNT said:
That is one strange line CK. So ndsu is better than Iowa state?

In other news for you motivation, bulletin board cappers.. Colorado supposedly is wearing 1994 throwback uniforms Saturday.
Click to expand...

From a Cyclone fan...NDSU would and should be favored by about 7 points over Iowa State on a neutral field right now. I think this is an absolutely terrible spot for Iowa. Crushed the rival school and looked great on offense. NDSU's Super Bowl this week after Iowa put a lot of interest the week before on beating Iowa State. Anything over 14 points will be a max play for me on North Dakota State. There will be at least 20-25k Bison fans at that game in Iowa City for the early kickoff.
 
I don't think ndsu can do much on iowas defense. King Frazier was 5th string at neb for a reason.
 
raems said:
Michigan's perceived struggles against UCF vastly exaggerated imo. 5 blocking 8 is reason enough to not run the ball down UCF's throat, everybody on the line graded out ok. Passing game looked fantastic which is a much better sign in proportion to what some thought of the running game.

Defense gave up one big play on a busted coverage and a few QB scrambles, literally nothing else all day. That plus a few drops on offense are nice nits for them to continue picking.

Hate to be redundant here but there's really no need to overcomplicate this, continue backing Michigan until they burn you in consecutive games. And be thankful for Colorado's schedule which gives us a number below 21 Saturday.
Click to expand...

Technically it isn't just 5 OL blocking 8 defenders...because you have a TE or two TE at times, maybe a FB in there. UCF was run blitzing and they were going to load up against the run. It isn't the first or last time Michigan will face that kind of D and I think in light of some running issues in a few games last year, you'd like Michigan to execute against what the D is presenting better vs a team like UCF since when they play Mich St, Iowa, OSU the running game needs to get theirs.

Not sure I'm betting the CU-Mich game, but I am most interested to evaluate it from a Buffalo standpoint. Levitt believes they finally have a quality D and looking forward to seeing how the new tempo CU has on O works against Mich D.
 
Reading this thread every week as I need all the help I can get, especially in the B1G.
Lost week 1 on the Minnesota and Indiana games. Lost week 2 in the Maryland game.
Then last week I broke the spell with a push on Penn State.Followed with 2 wins in games I watched simultaneously. Iowa and Illinois.

This week I'll listen to thoughts on the following leans, and I appreciate those already expressed , like Oregon and NDSU.
Temple, Oregon, Michigan, Maryland, tOSU, Sparty, and Duke, or the under or both.

Great group of football minds in this forum.
bull
 
Hopefully someone can help out bull. I've pretty much stuck to local, osu, bucky, Iowa these first few weeks.

Gl bro
 
Thanks bro. I got carried away. Really dumb. Was talking to scarf about this. One game sure can make you question shit. Wow. Live betting is a roller coaster man. Sorry to derail the thread.
 
agree with comments on NDSU up in the thread. I think last few years they would be top 3 or 4 in MAC and probably compete for title a couple of those years. However, watched their first game in its entirety and what stuck out to me compared especially to last years team-- they are not nearly as talented up front both sides of the ball. I think Iowa will push them around esp in 2H for a low DD win.. Not even close to a play for me.
 
Colorado @ Michigan

Weather Concerns:

Most of the rain should be gone by kickoff. Low 70's with not too much wind


Current Line:

17.5-55.5


Okay, through two games Michigan has looked 'okay' imo. They haven't really shown much on both sides and obviously have not needed to against crap and crap. The competition steps up slightly today but the line suggests that it really steps up. Lets go in-between here, imo.

For the first time in forever, Michigan has depth at QB. That is huge and it is nice when looking at betting opportunities to know that things will stay consistent if there is an injury. They also have depth at RB. Last week, UCF sold out so UM just passed all over them. They have one of the best groups of WRs/TEs in the country so that helps the QB's as well.

Defensively, the team is starting to create turnovers for the first time since maybe 2011. It feels like a lifetime ago. There are many injuries, so I expect Colorado to score at times. I am interested to see if UM shows a bit more on defense. This will be a good learning game from that standpoint.

The ST's have been very good so far. Jabrill is SOOO due to break one, it is coming, and very soon.

I am not putting too much into all the trash Colorado has been talking, it is what it is. With that being said, I do not expect the gas to come off the pedal and I think Michigan wears them down in 2nd half.

Michigan TT o36.5 -110 2 units

*additional line movement may warrant another unit
 
Thanks bar and everyone again this week. We will keep it rolling next week.

Gl all.

Again. Feel free to post plays in here.
 
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