B1G WEEK 12

HUNT

HUNT

CTG Partner
Staff member
Week 12?? Holy shit time flies.

Michigan vs. Wisconsin

Wisky has a turnover problem..but they still pull away late 28-17...just fade whatever fondy takes.

Minnesota vs Northwestern

Who the fuck knows?

Rutgers vs. Indiana

Who the fuck cares?

Illinois vs Ohio State

Name the score Tosu-14

Purdue vs. Iowa

Who the...nevermind

Maryland vs Michigan State

Michigan State 31-10

Nebraska vs Penn State

It was nice knowin ya this year PSU
 
I am starting to warm to Iowa quite a bit this week. The "team they truly are" isn't the team that curb-stomped Ohio State, but it also isn't the team that got smashed last week, either. The Big Ten West race was already over (heading into last week they had to win out and need Wisconsin to lose out) so I don't see there being much of a let down like there would be in a situation where they blew their "big chance". Now they get to head back home to play a Purdue team that has dropped four of five - and the one win was against Illinois at home, so I'm not even sure that counts - without its starting QB. This feels like a spot they can get feeling better about themselves.

I don't know what to make of the big one this week. I was very high (higher than most) on Wisconsin heading into the year and have watched pretty much all of its games. But as Hunt pointed out up top, this team is having some pretty significant turnover issues, and they pretty much all come via the team's two most important offensive players in QB Hornibrook and RB Taylor. Part of the reason I was so high on the Badgers entering the season was an expectation that Hornibrook would take a significant leap forward having a year and spring/fall camp in the system fully entrenched as the starter. But I really haven't seen it. He has limited arm strength and makes some really boneheaded decisions. Then there's Taylor. An elite talent for sure, but jesus fuck does he struggle to hold onto the ball.

At the end of the day, my opinion is that a clean game by both teams results in a comfortable, 10-17 point win for Wisconsin. But if Taylor puts a couple more on the ground and they bounce Michigan's way, or if Hornibrook keeps playing catch with opposing defensive backs, then Michigan could win outright. The line feels a tick or two low from what I was expecting, but this is a major stay-away for me.

Can't really find much value other than Iowa in this league this week. I have a rooting interest in PSU outright due to holding an over 9.5 RSW ticket, and could be tempted into laying the points with Ohio State, but that's an awfully big number.
 
Good post.

I'll chime in hopefully tomorrow with a few thoughts.

I said it before last week and will re-evaluate but I do think Michigan covers the last 3 games of the season (key word, cover. Not calling for wins)
 
Tend to agree on Iowa, although not sure I play it unless it were to drop below a TD. I normally come into a game thinking if the dog can cover first and I do think it will be hard for Purdue. They really need to run the ball to have success on O which should be hard vs Iowa and then it is all on Sindelar to do it, which should also be even harder. On the other hand I do think Purdue's D can play solid and except for one game this year, or vs the worst of Ds, Iowa's O isn't very threatening. Purdue D isn't awful. I thought about Under but saw it was 41! Wow that is low, not sure I can play that. But this could be a customary Iowa 23-10 type game.
 
I read that on two of zone reads Croft pulled out of the RB to run with Fleck yelled "fumble" into his headset. Even Fleck couldn't believe what he was seeing, they weren't fumbles just timing and execution not seen before.
 
s--k said:
Tend to agree on Iowa, although not sure I play it unless it were to drop below a TD. I normally come into a game thinking if the dog can cover first and I do think it will be hard for Purdue. They really need to run the ball to have success on O which should be hard vs Iowa and then it is all on Sindelar to do it, which should also be even harder. On the other hand I do think Purdue's D can play solid and except for one game this year, or vs the worst of Ds, Iowa's O isn't very threatening. Purdue D isn't awful. I thought about Under but saw it was 41! Wow that is low, not sure I can play that. But this could be a customary Iowa 23-10 type game.
Click to expand...
Total is spot on I think for a 24-13 type game. 27...14 perhaps...31-10...

or even as low as you said.
 
I also didn't think Iowa would score more than about 17-20 vs Ohio State.

But outside of that vs teams that atleast play some D... 17 vs Min, 10 vs NW, 10 vs Mich St, 19 vs Penn St. Their 45 vs ILL is misleading, the O was pretty good because ILL has horrible D, but Iowa also scored on D. And then the 14 vs Wisconsin was all D we know.

I always hate to totally doubt the underdog, just my nature. But knowing what we know about Iowa front 7 and then how their secondary has evolved this season, it is hard to forecast much success for Boilers on O.

There will certainly be urgency out of the Purdue camp to try and make 6 wins, and maybe Iowa is like WTF after last week. Just trying to find a way for the Purdue angle. Personnel wise, Iowa D should make life hard on them.
 
s--k said:
I read that on two of zone reads Croft pulled out of the RB to run with Fleck yelled "fumble" into his headset. Even Fleck couldn't believe what he was seeing, they weren't fumbles just timing and execution not seen before.
Click to expand...
Croft is a great athlete but still very raw. Reminds me of a thinner version Marquis Gray (who is now a TE for the Dolphins). I hadn't heard that but certainly wouldn't be surprised.
 
Found it, was an AP recap

AP Nov 11, 2017 at 5:59p ET
MINNEAPOLIS (AP) Minnesota coach P.J. Fleck said he watched quarterback Demry Croft run read-option plays with running back Rodney Smith on Saturday and twice yelled ”fumble” into his headset.

Croft had the Gophers’ first-year coach as confused as Nebraska.
Click to expand...
 
VirginiaCavs said:
I think there's a strong ats trend against opponents of wisconsin the following week. Wiscy hits hard
Click to expand...

Looking at this just because I don't think trends like that hold up. First of all we aren't talking about good teams that cover often. So the fact they didn't cover after playing Wisconsin isn't a surprise, they don't cover after playing many teams.

Working it recent-to-oldest of 2017 UW opponents:

Indiana covered or pushed depending on your line vs ILL -9.5 24-14 (IU has only covered 1-2 B1G games all year)
Illinois didn't cover at Purdue +14 10-29 (ILL has only covered 2 B1G games all year)
Maryland covered +5.5 42-39 (Mary covered 2 B1G games all year)
Purdue -9.5 lost straight up 12-14 at Rutgers (Pur 3-3 ATS in B1G games)
Nebraska +24.5 lost 14-56 (probably would've been same result with a bye before OSU)
Northwestern +14 lost 7-31 (played good first half on D, no signs of being beat up)
BYU had bye next week, failed to cover the week after vs Utah St, but was also in middle of 0-8 ATS run
FAU -20 vs Beth-Cookman won 45-0
Utah State -30 vs Idaho 51-13

I'm sure that teams are physically more tired and sore after playing Wisconsin, but I find any relation to the following week to be minimal if not overblown.
 
Is ESPN turning on their favorite RB showing an illustration like this at halftime last week?

DOXxUuEXkAAY9fv.jpg
 
Literally nothing to get excited about in the B1G this week other than the nooner in Madison...


Here is the thing...we know Wisconsin is good but we haven't seen them play anyone as of yet...

Guess what, flip these two teams in the divisions and Michigan is sitting at 10-0 right now while Wisky has a loss or two...

It is what it is. I do believe Wisconsin is good though but again, they have not been tested...

Lets look through real quick at their schedule so far...


Utah State at home was close for a few minutes but as we look back on USU now..man are they awful...

FAU at home...same type of story. Now, FAU has gotten better as the season has went on and showed some of that big play ability but they were not good at all in Week 2...

BYU on the road. We know what type of steaming pile of trash they have been this year. It was still a solid win but when it is all said and done it is not a resume builder...

Northwestern at home was not as close as the final indicated. Perhaps, this is a closer game if played today but Wisky controlled most of the game...

Nebraska in Lincoln...yeah...about that...nuff said...

Purdue at home was actually a struggle for Wisconsin. They were never really in danger of losing but it was an ugly win for sure...

Maryland at home...not much to be said here...this was the infamous lets cover and get the game over for the boosters game...

Illinois on the road was another one of those games that they did what they had to do to win by just enough...

Indiana on the road was actually one heck of a game early. I feared that IU was in letdown mode after a rough 3-4 weeks and eventually Wisconsin got rolling and made it look easy.

Iowa at home will be looked at as their signature win. This would be NOTHING if not for a perfect storm the week before at Kinnick. It looks as though they beat a top-25 team but in reality Iowa is not one of the top 25 teams in America. I think 30-35 is about right.

So, not they face their stiffest game yet...at home...with Gameday there against a young, still new QB...

Lots of intrigue. I'll get into this more later tonight...

What I wanted to surmise here is we really have no idea how truly good the Badgers are. That is part of the unbalanced divisions and part that their OOC schedule is never the greatest. Oh, and their cross-over games have sucked so far.
 
B.A.R. said:
Prolly some weather concerns around the conference as well.
Click to expand...

Yep. Posted this last night but turns out I posted in the wrong thread:

A buddy of mine is a meteorologist in Georgia but is a Wisconsin grad. He just emailed me and said weather could definitely an issue in Madison. Expects windy conditions and cold temps, with possible snow. Says "close call if the snow showers will be gone by game time". Obviously still Tuesday but figured it warranted mentioning.
 
No PAC 12 tread and no discussion for Utah - Washington...why is that total only 46.5? Utes don't have the D they used to.
 
EFC1878 said:
Yep. Posted this last night but turns out I posted in the wrong thread:

A buddy of mine is a meteorologist in Georgia but is a Wisconsin grad. He just emailed me and said weather could definitely an issue in Madison. Expects windy conditions and cold temps, with possible snow. Says "close call if the snow showers will be gone by game time". Obviously still Tuesday but figured it warranted mentioning.
Click to expand...

Joe Bren Weather Scouts!!
 
B.A.R. said:
Which TTs you looking for?
Click to expand...

Utah and Washington. I use scoresandodds and they don't have Saturday totals up yet.

Utah can get to 20 here can't they? So then either dog covers or it goes over.
 
s--k said:
Utah and Washington. I use scoresandodds and they don't have Saturday totals up yet.

Utah can get to 20 here can't they? So then either dog covers or it goes over.
Click to expand...
Team totals do not come up till the day of...

With that being said...the current TT's would be pretty close to...

Washington 31.5
Utah 14.5
 
B.A.R. said:
Team totals do not come up till the day of...

With that being said...the current TT's would be pretty close to...

Washington 31.5
Utah 14.5
Click to expand...
Both would be juiced to the over but I really am not sure Utah gets to 20 though, think they're more likely to get 10 than 20
 
Hm. Is that based on your appreciation of Washington D or lack of respect for Ute D. Let me guess, combo of both?
 
Both, think as BAR mentioned UW tries to shorten the game, their defense shouldn't have much issue remaining fairly fresh and limiting the Utes...just kinda how I see it. Shouldn't be one of those games where the UW defense is on the field a ton, see it more like the ASU game...I won't play under I don't think but I'd certainly refrain from over.
 
B.A.R. said:
Some ugly games. Some ugly weather. The clocks should be running pretty well.
Click to expand...
I like Ugly Games. . Just so long as I can pick a winner.

I checked my records and I am 15-11-1 betting on B1G teams this season. That's improvement over prior years. This thread has helped. This week I will probably play Purdue, Michigan, and - having read a previous post re Minny - take Northwestern.
I have made no bets this year on Illinois, Nebraska, Ohio State, and Wisky. Northwestern and Sparty have been the kindest to me. Maryland is my nemesis.
 
Any questions with regards to UM-Wisky ... fire em away I'll answer in an hour and have a quick write-up too...
 
B.A.R. said:
Any questions with regards to UM-Wisky ... fire em away I'll answer in an hour and have a quick write-up too...
Click to expand...

OK, let's say UW is bottling up the running game. What, or where, is the key matchup that Peters needs to be connecting with to move chains? Is there a vulnerability or matchup advantage for UM to be had?
 
s--k said:
OK, let's say UW is bottling up the running game. What, or where, is the key matchup that Peters needs to be connecting with to move chains? Is there a vulnerability or matchup advantage for UM to be had?
Click to expand...

I haven't watched Wisky as much lately but they showed me they would give up big plays downfield, moreso the middle earlier in the year (at times).

They need to trust him to go over the middle and use the TE's.

The biggest thing here...would be a solid game from Grant Perry. He has been kinda 'blah' lately since the injury.

TE's middle and seems.
 
Going back to that...I'd love to see them use a quick fullback dive or two...

This was used a lot two years ago with Houma and was a GREAT play. It is not something many teams run nowadays and if you get a quick burst you can get through the line pretty quickly.
 
I wanna look at some quick numbers for fun...

These are two of the top T.O.P. teams in the country.

Wisconsin is #2 (~35 min)
Michigan is #18 (~32 min)

Michigan is 39th in the country in the Red zone as far as percentage goes...

They have 33 attempts:

Out of those, they have 14 rush TD's, 4 pass TD's and 8 FG's (87.9% score percentage)

Now, if you take away those first three games where they attempted 8 FG's in the RZ...

They have 25 attempts:

Out of those, they have 14 rush TD's, 4 pass TD's and 3 FG's
 
Conversely, the Wisconsin Red Zone defense...

27 attempts:

There have been 3 rushing, 5 passing and 13 FG's (70.4%)
 
On the other end...Michigan Red Zone defense...

23 Attempts:

There have been 9 rushing, 5 passing and 5 FG's (82.6%)
 
Non-option FB dives never seem to work for the teams I have. No head of steam and always gets stuffed right when I need a yard.
 
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