B1G week 11

s--k said:
I've occasionally done a 180 on a game right before kickoff, but that is usually based on two things...overwhelming picks on one side (the side I'm usually on) and the line getting to a point where all the value is with the other side. Like Baylor-Ok St earlier this year for example.

Here, the line value has gone with Illinois. I'm a dog bettor and line moves generally help the dogs in terms of waiting and getting more points as the week goes on. So seeing it go from 11 or 12 to over 14 to me is good news, that doesn't make me worried, I like it.

It does however give me pause that everyone talking about this game seems to like Illinois - which should make the line drop. Instead it has gone the other way even though the only people who are picking Michigan St are doing so because they hate the line movement.

So I don't know. I am going to have Illinois. I would rather play the side I like and have it lose than change my mind and bet against the side I thought I liked and lose. That sucks for me. It happened once this week already and I have thought about it every day damn it.

Maybe if you liked the play and then got cold feet take it down from 1u to .5u or whatever your philosophy is?

I do go into that bet knowing that Illinois has succeeded vs some pretty bad teams and haven't exactly won in all that of convincing fashion (see Rutgers game) and have been a little lucky (see Wisconsin and weather aided game at Purdue).

Still Illinois has all the confidence and momentum. Michigan State appears to be in a downward spiral. That is the angle that keeps bringing me back to Illini.
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It’s not so much the line or the move as much as like you said they incredibly popular and for life of me I can’t understand this line. I prefer to think I have a understanding why a line where it is and simply disagree to make a play. These ones where I can’t figure it out and seems everyone else in same boat concerns me much more than the movement. It just feels like a rock fight so catching 15 is a ton.
 
Michigan State scored 31 on Northwestern and 40 on Indiana...so they were able to do some things vs the not-so-good / average B1G teams. What we've all seen is the last 3 games where they couldn't do shit vs the best B1G teams. Illinois falls into the former category. Having said that, I'm still not buying them.
 
s--k said:
Michigan State scored 31 on Northwestern and 40 on Indiana...so they were able to do some things vs the not-so-good / average B1G teams. What we've all seen is the last 3 games where they couldn't do shit vs the best B1G teams. Illinois falls into the former category. Having said that, I'm still not buying them.
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I don’t take much from what anyone does to NW cause their offense so freaking horrible the d just doesn’t stand a fighting chance for 60 min but point taken. Just feel like sparty been grossly overrated all season. They were incredibly popular/line dropped a bunch vs psu also. Obviously not comparing Illini to psu just way the line moved in sparty favor all week despite how bad they been.
 
Couple quick things...

I noted it elsewhere but rumor is that MSU was more preparing for next week than for Illinois this week. None of this should be unexpected, but something to think about.

As @s--k said, wrt to that TT... they have put points up vs bad defenses...But they also had Stewart then and more confidence

OSU game total is too high, imo.
 
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