B1G week 11

HUNT

HUNT

CTG Partner
Staff member
Hello.

Minnesota vs psu.
I kind of like Minnesota here.

Purdue vs. Nw.
Will nw score 10+?

Maryland vs bucks
Hello Maryland. Goodbye Maryland.

Illinois vs Michigan state.
One team high. One team low. Like Illinois.

Iowa vs. Wisconsin.
Wisconsin will get back to business this week.

Gl.
 
I feel Minnesota-PSU is a matchup of two teams that haven't impressed me at all outside of record. I played PSU -6 last night as I think they are the less overachieving of the two teams. Also hoping they win convincingly to keep the OSU line in check, as I think the Buckeyes will steamroll them.

Played Illinois +11.5 last night. Sure as hell wasn't expecting to see 14.5 when I checked again today.

Played Purdue -2 as a pure fade of NW, and I expect to be one Wisconsin but waiting to see if the number doesn't creep a bit closer to 7.
 
First glance: Chiefs, PU, Hamlers, Wisky.

Illini up, Sparty down and lost “leader” to roids. Won’t help an overrated defense. Purdue still sans Moore, NW garbage though. PU with some momentum, Brees speech, have to have it to keep season alive. Won’t fade PSU again until maybe OSU or even IU in sandwich spot next week. Don’t think this is the week but I admittedly haven’t seen Gophers at all besides highlights. Run the ball well, have a nice WR. They’ll need to pass to win but their D has me concerned. Supposed to snow, check weather later. Wisky should dominate an average Iowa team at home, you’d think. Two games I care to see this week, Bama LSU and PSU Minny. Got a feeling one is a blowout.
 
Iowa - Wisconsin is B1G West elimination game. Both have 2 league losses and Minnesota still. Hard for me to go against Wisconsin at home with that on the line. I worry about the Iowa O, all facets, having what it takes. It feels like Iowa's only chance is a low scoring game that their defense can win for them. Do like the Iowa D quite a bit.
 
Leans right now are Purdue ML. Can nw get to 10-14? They got to 30 vs unlv. Not over 15 the rest of the way. Purdue is considerably higher in sp+.

Illinois and the pts ad maybe a small ML play. Msu is done. D leader gone. Rumors swirling dantonio is done. Illinois according to lovie is healthy and playing pretty well.
Gotta keep going with Day. 44 is a huge number obviously. And I think the right side might be md. They get to 14-17 vs our backups means we have to hit 60. But you can’t jump off now. Esp after Day just said style points matter. It’s the world we live in so you got to play by those rules.

I want to take minny. Not sure I can. I do think it’s a little overblown that psu is good enough to be a possible 1-loss cfp contender. They just don’t do much for me.
 
A 3-6 Purdue team favored over NW on the road without Neal, Sindelar, Plummer, Moore, Bailey and starting a walk on at QB is not something I had projected for this year.
 
I never did my quick write-up this week...

Obviously last week was a garbage week...

I obviously watched all of Mary-Mich...Locksley really tried to shorten the game. The team played hard after some embarrassing efforts. If they gained yards on first down, they moved the ball (this is basically how you beat Don Brown). The Michigan offense never really got into a rhythm in the first half at all. They didn't have the ball much, and that hurt. A few drops and some conservative play hurt as well. Otherwise, two kick returns were the fun of a pretty boring game.

Illinois and Indiana both impressively took care of business. I am so happy for these schools that will be playing in bowl games (Illy needs one more win).

Nebraska, ouch.

Okay, this week...

Sparty obviously in look-ahead mode but they need a win pretty bad. The first one to get caught, finally, did last week (Joe Bachie). Remember I kinda insinuated that when ESPN came crawling around 4 years ago or so that the juicing stopped quite a bit. You could see it with some of the newer players not being as 'big' as the stretch from 2010-2015 well apparently that has been amped up again the last year+. Now, obviously this happens everywhere in some shape or form but it has always been very rampant up there. The big loss on offense is Daryl Stewart. He is out this week and I heard last week from what seem to be reputable sources that it is season ending. That is a big loss, he is very good and honestly the only game-breaker on offense. I know a lot of people wanted to jump on Illinois with all those points but this game absolutely reeks imo...

One BIG thing to factor with MSU/Illinois. BP has completed more than 10 passes ZERO times since Eastern Michigan. The biggest liability on the Sparty defense is the secondary. This is a tough game imo, I literally have no clue what to expect from MSU, especially the week before the Super Bowl.

Minnesota can win if Morgan has no turnovers and is able to keep the defense honest. I have many questions about that, though. No interest in this game.

I honestly lean Wisconsin in this game. It really feels like 24-10 to me. I just do not think Iowa can score that much on the Badgers. Lets not look at the 2nd half vs OSU. They are doing that to any team in the country. This one is all about the Badgers mindset.

Purdue and Northwestern should not be on TV. It is a danger to all of us.

Urban .Meyer Buckeyes win this forthcoming game like 38-14. Ryan Day Buckeyes win this game like 51-7. Yes, it seems like ridiculous amount of points but... Maryland is not good. They have averaged 5.5 on offense the last two weeks against good defenses. Now, they face the best. So, cap this at 7 points for Maryland then think about Ryan Day 'taking the foot off the gas'...he seems to wait till late 3rd quarter then Teague just runs all over ya.

That is about all I got...
 
AliShaheed said:
Fox can really go fuck themselves. Pathetic.
Click to expand...
It sucks.

It really does.

For instance, we haven't had a 330 game all year.

But, they are gonna keep doing that to pump up the pregame show. That is a bigger reason than having an easy time slot to dominate ratings in.
 
B.A.R. said:
It sucks.

It really does.

For instance, we haven't had a 330 game all year.

But, they are gonna keep doing that to pump up the pregame show. That is a bigger reason than having an easy time slot to dominate ratings in.
Click to expand...

I'm curious if it really does help the pregame show. So people tune in for the pregame at 11am but then skip out on the game if it gets played at 330? Doesn't make sense to me.

It looks like Iowa/Wisky will be a 4pm start on Fox. Which kind of sucks because just about everyone will be watching bama/lsu instead. An 8pm start would've been perfect especially this week with a really crap slate of 8pm games.
 
One BIG thing to factor with MSU/Illinois. BP has completed more than 10 passes ZERO times since Eastern Michigan. The biggest liability on the Sparty defense is the secondary. This is a tough game imo, I literally have no clue what to expect from MSU, especially the week before the Super Bowl.
Click to expand...

I was not aware.

So I thought, well, he's completing under 10 passes a game, but they a probably aren't throwing that much.

Most of the time he hasn't thrown that much, but he still has a horrible completion %. 47.66% in Big Ten play...even Vs Rutgers he was only 6-of-11. Purdue, 3-of-6, there was some challenging weather there. Wisconsin 9-of-21, I can understand that maybe. Minnesota 5-of-10, he got knocked out. 9-of-22 vs Nebraska?

I thought he was a capable QB and thought they had some decent receiving targets.

This is more of an issue than I had realized. The efforts vs Rutgers and Nebraska stand out the most because of those team's struggles on D and they were home with good weather.
 
There comes a certain time of the year when the Big Ten doesn't play night games in November. I thought it was a conference commissioner thing. Not sure if we are past whenever that point is or not.
 
AliShaheed said:
I'm curious if it really does help the pregame show. So people tune in for the pregame at 11am but then skip out on the game if it gets played at 330? Doesn't make sense to me.

It looks like Iowa/Wisky will be a 4pm start on Fox. Which kind of sucks because just about everyone will be watching bama/lsu instead. An 8pm start would've been perfect especially this week with a really crap slate of 8pm games.
Click to expand...
It's November. Both schools need to agree for a night game to occur.
 
AliShaheed said:
I'm curious if it really does help the pregame show. So people tune in for the pregame at 11am but then skip out on the game if it gets played at 330? Doesn't make sense to me.

It looks like Iowa/Wisky will be a 4pm start on Fox. Which kind of sucks because just about everyone will be watching bama/lsu instead. An 8pm start would've been perfect especially this week with a really crap slate of 8pm games.
Click to expand...
I read an article weeks ago that showed the drastic improvement for the pregame show with better noon telecasts.
 
s--k said:
I was not aware.

So I thought, well, he's completing under 10 passes a game, but they a probably aren't throwing that much.

Most of the time he hasn't thrown that much, but he still has a horrible completion %. 47.66% in Big Ten play...even Vs Rutgers he was only 6-of-11. Purdue, 3-of-6, there was some challenging weather there. Wisconsin 9-of-21, I can understand that maybe. Minnesota 5-of-10, he got knocked out. 9-of-22 vs Nebraska?

I thought he was a capable QB and thought they had some decent receiving targets.

This is more of an issue than I had realized. The efforts vs Rutgers and Nebraska stand out the most because of those team's struggles on D and they were home with good weather.
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I think he is capable. But, they have run the ball well, right? Either way... interesting numbers.
 
B.A.R. said:
It's November. Both schools need to agree for a night game to occur.
Click to expand...
Something Mike Valenti didn’t understand today and ripped Fleck and Minny for not making this a night game. Damn I hate Valenti, I tune in rarely just to argue with him in my car to keep me busy and I last about 3 minutes.
 
I liked penn state last week but I’m not so sure now. Stay away for me, especially since I’ve been garbage at trying to figure out the big ten sans Ohio state
 
survive&advance said:
I liked penn state last week but I’m not so sure now. Stay away for me, especially since I’ve been garbage at trying to figure out the big ten sans Ohio state
Click to expand...
Tough game to figure. Do I think PSU is 4th best team in country, nah. Deserving to date, sure. I just dont know about Minny and hate laying points on the road, especially a td or more. Minny has faced FIVE straight back up qbs and has not beat a team in the top 50 this year. But they're blowing teams out. The bye week for both teams helps or kills momentum? May help PSU more because of the schedule they just went through.

Absolutely uncomfortable betting this game, I'd bet Minny wins SU or PSU wins comfortably. Reading between the line, i think a 7 here suggests PSU comfy win more likely, if seeing 4 or less probably other way. I'll stay away. Its going to be cold and 11am start for PSU.
 
Last edited:
s--k said:
Where is @P-Unit to hype up the Gophers?
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Honestly, this game is massive. All anyone is talking about for the last 2 weeks.

PSU's offense doesn't really make me nervous outside of the TE position which is how I think they'll be most effective due to the matchup. I think Minny D can make enough plays to keep them close. See this one as a pretty low scoring game. We are going to need to win by throwing and I think we have a huge edge at WR over their DB's but getting the ball out clean will be the key. If PSU's front 4 can get pressure it will be a long tough day for my boys.

Trying to stay level headed. Biggest game they've played in my lifetime I'm sure. Have been a pretty die-hard fan since I moved here when I was a kid. Last big game might have been Michigan on a Friday night when I was still in college (late 90's) and seeing us blow a huge 1st half lead with the Michigan QB catching a RB throwback with a cavalry of linemen escorting him down the sidelines still gives me nightmares. My team really knows how to blow it in "important" games and this one is as big as it gets.

Should be nuts down there. Most feel a night game is preferable, but whatever their reasons were it will be a blast at the game. Crowd will be hyped.
 
P-Unit said:
Honestly, this game is massive. All anyone is talking about for the last 2 weeks.

PSU's offense doesn't really make me nervous outside of the TE position which is how I think they'll be most effective due to the matchup. I think Minny D can make enough plays to keep them close. See this one as a pretty low scoring game. We are going to need to win by throwing and I think we have a huge edge at WR over their DB's but getting the ball out clean will be the key. If PSU's front 4 can get pressure it will be a long tough day for my boys.

Trying to stay level headed. Biggest game they've played in my lifetime I'm sure. Have been a pretty die-hard fan since I moved here when I was a kid. Last big game might have been Michigan on a Friday night when I was still in college (late 90's) and seeing us blow a huge 1st half lead with the Michigan QB catching a RB throwback with a cavalry of linemen escorting him down the sidelines still gives me nightmares. My team really knows how to blow it in "important" games and this one is as big as it gets.

Should be nuts down there. Most feel a night game is preferable, but whatever their reasons were it will be a blast at the game. Crowd will be hyped.
Click to expand...


28-7 Minnesota going into the 4th that game. Had Maroney and Barber in the backfield. Navarre and Braylon Edwards for Michigan in the dome. Friday nighter.
 
That was 2003 @P-Unit

Michigan has played two Friday night games, both at Minnesota and both due to a Twins playoff game.

1991 and 2003.

I'll never forget that comeback.
 
Scrolling social media and rumor is Franklin signed an extension. Makes sense before USC announces CUM next month.
 
HUNT said:
28-7 Minnesota going into the 4th that game. Had Maroney and Barber in the backfield. Navarre and Braylon Edwards for Michigan in the dome. Friday nighter.
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fuck. John Navarre. That was it. my god that was awful.
 
HUNT said:
28-7 Minnesota going into the 4th that game. Had Maroney and Barber in the backfield. Navarre and Braylon Edwards for Michigan in the dome. Friday nighter.
Click to expand...
And our QB, Assad Abdul Kaliq ran a QB sneak on 4th down from the 50 for a TD. Just when everything was going our way and then we shit the bed.
 
Man, you brought it up.

All these Michigan fans loving the memories at your expense!

While we are at it, my favorite Michigan comeback will always be the Alabama Orange Bowl.
 
s--k said:
I was not aware.

So I thought, well, he's completing under 10 passes a game, but they a probably aren't throwing that much.

Most of the time he hasn't thrown that much, but he still has a horrible completion %. 47.66% in Big Ten play...even Vs Rutgers he was only 6-of-11. Purdue, 3-of-6, there was some challenging weather there. Wisconsin 9-of-21, I can understand that maybe. Minnesota 5-of-10, he got knocked out. 9-of-22 vs Nebraska?

I thought he was a capable QB and thought they had some decent receiving targets.

This is more of an issue than I had realized. The efforts vs Rutgers and Nebraska stand out the most because of those team's struggles on D and they were home with good weather.
Click to expand...

He was freaking terrible vs corn. They ran it well that game and corn turned it over a ton, he makes a few throws and corn woulda succeeded in handing them that game but he just could’nt do it. He let pocket collapse on him, ran into pressure, and missed wrs by a mile on 3rd down if I recall correctly (I was pretty interested cause had illi ats and ml that game, was cussing him a bunch! Lol).,

This game stinks so so bad but I’m still having a hard time avoiding taking Illini catching 2+ freaking tds. I mean do they have to score more than 14 to cover this number? Supposed to be moderately windy, Illini seems to like these games both teams just run at each other! Under maybe?
 
I've occasionally done a 180 on a game right before kickoff, but that is usually based on two things...overwhelming picks on one side (the side I'm usually on) and the line getting to a point where all the value is with the other side. Like Baylor-Ok St earlier this year for example.

Here, the line value has gone with Illinois. I'm a dog bettor and line moves generally help the dogs in terms of waiting and getting more points as the week goes on. So seeing it go from 11 or 12 to over 14 to me is good news, that doesn't make me worried, I like it.

It does however give me pause that everyone talking about this game seems to like Illinois - which should make the line drop. Instead it has gone the other way even though the only people who are picking Michigan St are doing so because they hate the line movement.

So I don't know. I am going to have Illinois. I would rather play the side I like and have it lose than change my mind and bet against the side I thought I liked and lose. That sucks for me. It happened once this week already and I have thought about it every day damn it.

Maybe if you liked the play and then got cold feet take it down from 1u to .5u or whatever your philosophy is?

I do go into that bet knowing that Illinois has succeeded vs some pretty bad teams and haven't exactly won in all that of convincing fashion (see Rutgers game) and have been a little lucky (see Wisconsin and weather aided game at Purdue).

Still Illinois has all the confidence and momentum. Michigan State appears to be in a downward spiral. That is the angle that keeps bringing me back to Illini.
 
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