B1G 2016 week 13 thread

HUNT

HUNT

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Staff member
Been awesome conversing with a lot of you over the course of the season. Will definitely like to do this again next year.

1st playoff game Saturday. Doesn't get much better than that on Turkey weekend. Fan of either team or not.

Lean under.

Fire away
 
Reviewing last week...

I watched most of the Sparty-OSU game at noon. This was the 2nd 'bowl' game for Sparty and they played hard. Obviously the weather was not great. I was suprised how much pressure they got without McDowell though. LJ gashed them on the 'apparent' game tying drive but otherwise I think OSU was just there to get the win and get out. It almost bit them in ass. With that being said, even if they were down 18-17 they would have scored in that last 4+ minutes, imo.

Looked like a pretty big crowd down in West Layfayette, haha.

It looks like Pedo State was going through the motions early. I saw a few drives, that is about it.

Big Red with a solid year. I'll defer to Cub on what's up at QB.

Illinois is awful. That drive chart is hilarious. Even if Iowa had a hangover it did not matter.

I saw nothing from NW/Minny.

Michigan-IU...

First, bad weather which got progressively worse.

O'Korn didn't look good. With that being said, the O-Line pass protection has been crap since Iowa game. This is totally opposite of last year. Last year, Jake got great protection and run blocking sucked. This year, the run blocking is 'solid'.

Jimmy said they would 'run their offense'. That was a total lie. Even at Iowa, they have turned ultra conservative.

The defense was very solid, as usual. The thing I think a lot of us noticed was there was no emotion for most of first half. That came back to fruition in the 2nd half. We haven't seen that in awhile.

Feed the pig: Deveon is maybe the most hated/loved back ever at UM. With that being said, give him the ball every first down run. He gets positive yardage, whether it be 2 or 6 yards. That is critical for the next 2nd down.

Great senior day for Deveon. MUCH DESERVED.

Thoughts on 'The Game' to come...
 
Both East and West divisions will be decided Saturday.

Maryland, Indiana, Northwestern need a win for bowl eligibility.

Badgers vs Gophers - 12 straight Paul Bunyan Axe wins for Bucky.

Usually what happens is that Min's D plays good enough, but they don't get enough support from the O.

Record shown is entering this game, yards shown are (UW-UM)
2015 8-3 UW -2' at 5-6 UM 31-21 (336-276)(was tied 14-14, but UW pulled away - Min lost 5 TOs)
2014 9-2 UW -14 vs 8-3 UM 34-24 (448-272) (Min led 14-3, but UW scored next 24)
2013 8-2 UW -16' at 8-2 UM 20-7 (324-185) (Min's TD was on D)
2012 5-2 UW -16' vs 4-2 UM 38-13 (443-245) (UW 14-6 HT, Min -2 TOs)

Figures to be similar this year. Minnesota D has shown to be tough and they figure to limit Badgers some (as they have before - last 3 years Gopher D held UW below their yardage avg, even that 2014 year, and typically right around their scoring avg). So far through 11 games, allowing just 116 rush ypg, this UM run D is 50 ypg better than 2015 and is statistically the best since atleast 2003, I didn't care to look back any further. Scoring D is a FG better than '15, you can beat them through the air though - Gophers do get 3 sacks per game.

So even if the D is a notch better than before, the O is going to remain a question and this Badger D is on par with prior editions.

Interesting to note these statistical rankings Big Ten play only (8 games):

Scoring O: UW #4 28.5, UM #5 27.3
Rushing O: UW #4 199 ypg, UM #6 178 ypg
Passing O: UW #11 161.6 ypg (58%), UM #10 170.6 ypg (55%)
Total O: UW #9 360 ypg, UM #10 348 ypg
Scoring D: UW #2 13.3, UM #5 21.1
Rushing D: UW #2 104.3 ypg, UM #3 115.9 ypg
Passing yardage D: UW #6 200 ypg, UM #13 237.5
Pass efficiency D: UW #3, UM #4

I'm not sure these two have been so close on paper in quite a while. UW did have to play both Michigan and Ohio St, Minn did not. Baring turnovers that UW benefited from the last two weeks vs ILL and Pur (+6), I think we see a game more like what UW and UM both played vs NW and Neb..low scoring...and perhaps a one possession game.
 
I've got OSU capped at - 5' . With O Korn under center , I'm OK at - 7 . Gonna be a great game.
 
Last edited:
First play of week for me...

Penn State -12.5 -110


I am grabbing this now and very well may add to it. I usually do not play this early in the week but I wanted to get this number as it opened at 13.5. I can see this at 14 or a bit more at gametime. Weather looks to be very good...

Michigan St is getting lauded for 'fighting hard' last week after finally getting a win versus Rutgers the week before. The fact is, this team is still a dumpster fire...

They played a good half at ND. They had a good opening drive then some garbage time scores against Michigan. The OSU game was their best the defense of the year but look at conditions and it seemed the Bucks were content to get out of there with a win(almost bit them in the but).

All the marbles are on the line for PSU. Who would have thunk this weeks ago after the Pitt loss and 49-10 thumping in Ann Arbor?

I think that MSU 'shot their wad' last week. They are not going bowling and this week will be the funeral basically.

PSU 31-10

------------------------

Footnote, if you flip the spread to this game being in East Landfill you are looking at a line of around PSU -5 or so...

Now compare that to the UM and OSU lines up at Sparty Land...

Interesting...
 
I'm not smart enough to know if the math works out but I took Penn State +320 to win B1G today. Simplest breakdown of my thoughts - Ohio State beats Michigan and Penn State beats Sparty. I have Penn State +320 against Wisconsin in the ship when they will be a 3 pt dog or less and I like the matchup.
 
CrimsonK said:
I'm not smart enough to know if the math works out but I took Penn State +320 to win B1G today. Simplest breakdown of my thoughts - Ohio State beats Michigan and Penn State beats Sparty. I have Penn State +320 against Wisconsin in the ship when they will be a 3 pt dog or less and I like the matchup.
Click to expand...
Pretty fair price as it's basically parlaying OSU/Penn St on the ML this week which is -140 with Penn St on the ML vs. Wisc (which if you assume is Wisc -3 would be about +140 on ML) so parlay -140 +140 and you get about +311 so basically the price is correct based on lines we know plus anticipated value on Penn St. ML vs. Wisc (+140).
 
Timh said:
Pretty fair price as it's basically parlaying OSU/Penn St on the ML this week which is -140 with Penn St on the ML vs. Wisc (which if you assume is Wisc -3 would be about +140 on ML) so parlay -140 +140 and you get about +311 so basically the price is correct based on lines we know plus anticipated value on Penn St. ML vs. Wisc (+140).
Click to expand...

My man! #math #science #PreferLiterature
 
B.A.R. said:
Penn State -12.5 -110


I am grabbing this now and very well may add to it. I usually do not play this early in the week but I wanted to get this number as it opened at 13.5. I can see this at 14 or a bit more at gametime. Weather looks to be very good...

Michigan St is getting lauded for 'fighting hard' last week after finally getting a win versus Rutgers the week before. The fact is, this team is still a dumpster fire...

They played a good half at ND. They had a good opening drive then some garbage time scores against Michigan. The OSU game was their best the defense of the year but look at conditions and it seemed the Bucks were content to get out of there with a win(almost bit them in the but).

All the marbles are on the line for PSU. Who would have thunk this weeks ago after the Pitt loss and 49-10 thumping in Ann Arbor?

I think that MSU 'shot their wad' last week. They are not going bowling and this week will be the funeral basically.

PSU 31-10

------------------------

Footnote, if you flip the spread to this game being in East Landfill you are looking at a line of around PSU -5 or so...

Now compare that to the UM and OSU lines up at Sparty Land...

Interesting...
Click to expand...

At this point disagree on our scum of michigan, sparty. I think most of this bet depends on if i bet Sparty or nothing on #70 status for PSU, Brendan Mahon. Often graded as top OL in nation by PFF or damn close, he has been out last 2 or 3 weeks since IU game. Unsure if he returns, if he does PSU o line gels better and overcomes losses to the other two tackles. Mahon was in hospital at last check and Franklin would not update his status this week but he did not travel with team last week. PSU should get RG McGovern back after resting last week. PSU offense has not been the same since losing those guys. Biggest concern is Sparty QB play. I think they can have success running with LJ quite a bit, PSU not very physical and miss a lot of tackles.

I will update on O line later in week but I think that is pivotal point in Sparty pulling upset or hanging tight. Think they can bang with PSU. Unless they just flat out give up but hard to believe with Dantonio and some senior leaders. Could be completely wrong, I hate them with so much passion I hope its 49-10 but we shall see.
 
Probably will money line both Michigan teams, think one shocks the world. Things in November can't go as planned, just impossible for the sport. Wazzu gets my look too.
 
Rutgers has to be bottom 5 team in college football now right? Only 13.5 at struggling Maryland? Twerps playing for bowl bid? Tim, any chance Hills plays? Does it matter?
 
CrimsonK said:
I'm not smart enough to know if the math works out but I took Penn State +320 to win B1G today. Simplest breakdown of my thoughts - Ohio State beats Michigan and Penn State beats Sparty. I have Penn State +320 against Wisconsin in the ship when they will be a 3 pt dog or less and I like the matchup.
Click to expand...
I made a 2u bet today on PSU to win the NC at 50 to 1. I believe OSU and PSU will both win this weekend. Then it's PSU and Wisc, where I'll start to hedge. The question on this game is if PSU beats Wisc and wins the Big 10 and has beaten OSU but has 2 losses - would they get in if Clem and Wash win out? (I do think both Wash and Clem could still lose a game). Wash now #5. Probably not but worth 2u risk to me - again plan is to hedge out if they make playoff though I know they'll be a big dog.
 
lvmike32 said:
I made a 2u bet today on PSU to win the NC at 50 to 1. I believe OSU and PSU will both win this weekend. Then it's PSU and Wisc, where I'll start to hedge. The question on this game is if PSU beats Wisc and wins the Big 10 and has beaten OSU but has 2 losses - would they get in if Clem and Wash win out? (I do think both Wash and Clem could still lose a game). Wash now #5. Probably not but worth 2u risk to me - again plan is to hedge out if they make playoff though I know they'll be a big dog.
Click to expand...

Think its a good bet worth a shot. Can easily win next two games if o line healthy. Probably get murdered vs Bama though. Ohio State or Clemson have proven anyone can take them out on the right day and there have been a few of those. Just doubt a 2 loss Wiscy/PSU gets in over 1 loss Wash if comes down to those two.
 
detroit187 said:
Rutgers has to be bottom 5 team in college football now right? Only 13.5 at struggling Maryland? Twerps playing for bowl bid? Tim, any chance Hills plays? Does it matter?
Click to expand...
Terps took redshirt of Bortenschlager last week and he played ok given first start on road. Obviously we would prefer to have Hills going this week, but it is questionable whether he will play with injuries to both shoulders. I think they are hopeful he can play, so the team can get a win vs. Rutgers, get a minor bowl bid and benefit from the extra practices for the kids coming back next year. Injuries have decimated MD again this year and they are very short of depth particular on DL. If Hills can't go, Bortenschlager would start and Pigrome would be used in some wildcat zone read type sets.
 
armstrong should start. who knows how long he will go. fyfe, the backup, broke a bone in his non throwing wrist or hand. had surgery, but is already practicing. 3rd stringer moved to wr this season and has never taken a snap in a real game. he is the holder on fgs tho and was a top recruit who urban wanted. had concussion problems in high school which really stunted his development.

I like neb to win if armstrong can play most of the game, esp if the weather is good. nothing locked in yet.
 
[FONT=&quot]11/23 10:36 AM PST[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]College Football[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]GAME #149-150[/FONT]

Maryland - QB Perry Hills (Shoulder) is upgraded to probable Saturday vs. Rutgers
 
Penn state is good. Iowa turned out to be good. Penn state dominated Iowa in every phase of the game, including manhood. Iowa dominated Michigan at point of attack. tOSU loss to Penn state not so bad actually..Huge QB edge for tOSU, at home? line dropping.. hmm
 
Can't take penn st yet until we know outcome of osu/mich. but I'm watching closely and will fire if osu looks like they're going to win.
 
total noshow from the corn....that was surprising. armstrong looked like he wanted to be anywhere but in iowa city and the defense....woof.
 
Gorgolon Lives said:
Can't take penn st yet until we know outcome of osu/mich. but I'm watching closely and will fire if osu looks like they're going to win.
Click to expand...

They were stupidly cheap halftime...-5.5 trailing 10-12. You had to know they were going to come out on fire knowing they controlled their destiny for Indy. -5.5 2nd half was a joke! Not sure I've seen such an easy number before.
 
Want to see good camera angle of the 4th down JT Barrett run play. Some news outlet has to have a good shot of it. Looked to me like JT was short. His arm with the ball hit OSU TE's butt, which I thought may have kept it short of line to gain. Really want a good look at that. TV camera shots were not definitive.
 
s--k said:
Want to see good camera angle of the 4th down JT Barrett run play. Some news outlet has to have a good shot of it. Looked to me like JT was short. His arm with the ball hit OSU TE's butt, which I thought may have kept it short of line to gain. Really want a good look at that. TV camera shots were not definitive.
Click to expand...

MY question to the NCAA and NFL is this, you want to implement replay but somehow not have the proper angles on critical 3rd and 4th down plays? How about goal line plays? Why are we getting angles from the 5 yard line or angles that would never overrule a reviewable call? Are we still this ignorant with replay or is there an ulterior motivate? I'm with Harbaugh. I thought Barrett was stopped short but there was no angle to change it. How's this possible?
 
Doesn't matter about spot, still had chances to win game numerous times. Too many mistakes by Speight. Same old same old. Had em on the ropes and kept letting them back in game. We got dominated in 2nd half. Pathetic.

Glad Maryland covered, lost on Sparty, go figure, lambs in second half. PSU is legit, just a great 2nd half team. Would love to see them getting points next week if Barkley is back. Sparty just a shit show. Good call BAR. Thanks for heads up Tim on Hills, won me some $$, good to see Terps bowling.
 
Thanks for the image. It is however, just the same view previously available, blown up. Can't see the ball, and we are looking at it at an angle from behind the play. Looks like the ball got right to the line and then a measurement would've been in order. May never get definitive view.

As mentioned that play didn't win the game, but it could've ended it.

I almost wonder someday if we aren't going to have a gps chip in the tips of the ball and some sort of software will have a grid of the field on a computer and the exact spot of the ball will be tracked electronically. It's not too far off of being possible, probably actually is possible, but then you have potential for malfunction of chips. Maybe that's not where we want things to go.

Funny thing about replay, you know people say, "of course you want replay to get the call right". How many times does an announcer, or even better, one of these "rules experts" the networks use disagree with the replay outcomes when they are looking at the exact same footage? Or how many times do you and your buddy disagree on a call. Sometimes it is cut and dry and sometimes it is subjective like so many other things we like to complain about.
 
the zebras won that game for OS JIM H is the man he told that press con a thing or 2 he knows WTF the zebras was thinking U of M is the most hated team is sports by far not even close MF crooks
 
Certainly can't reverse a call on field because we "can't get a good angle". Correct call (on field) was made. Try not fumbling on the 1 or throwing two timely INTs.

But obv refs blew it.
 
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