Time flies when you are having fun, amirite? We are now firmly into the Big Ten conference season, and we will start at least having a few intriguing matchups sooner than later. I am all for it. We are less than two weeks away from the first of the Big 3 matchups, and we really need that as fans of the conference. Until then, we power on...
Let us peek back at last week. Overall, pretty happy with how the conference treated myself on a few live bets. The late pre-game add of Over in OSU was a bad cap, simple as that. We almost front-doored that one late though. Michigan TT's live half and game were very satisfying. The Illinois 3rd quarter under was definitely a sweat with turnovers, but overall, the correct call. That was all for myself, in the land of 16/18 teams.
Friday night, the Huskers handled Illinois on the scoreboard. Now, the yards were nearly even -- but 140 of those 310 Illini yards came via their FIRST and LAST drives. Each of those resulted in zero points. Nebraska ran the ball very well in this game. Both teams had turnover issues.
I did not see much of the Rutgers and Wisconsin game. In fact, the last I saw was 3-0 in the 2nd and suddenly there was two late tuddy's to make the 1st half margin nearly insurmountable. So, how did this game change?
Wisconsin led 3-0 for well over a quarter. Then, they had a very impressive drive that ended with a fumble inside the 5. Undeterred, they made the stop and got the ball back on their own 39 and drove down for the score. The next possession Rutgers finally for their offense going and drove down inside the Wisconsin 10. Gavin tossed a 95-yard interception return though with less than 10 seconds left in the half. So, we went from possibly 10-7/1--3 at halftime to 17-0 Badgers.
As for the rest of the game, Wisconsin had what looks to be a vintage Badger 5+ min drive beginning before and ending after 'jump around. This led to 24-6 and a cover looked to be coming. Not so fast. Rutgers once again got to near the Wisconsin 10 with 5 minutes left but were SOD's. That was 0-2 at this point inside the RZ with a pick 6 involved. Well, Wisconsin promptly fumbled a few plays later. Rutgers finally punched one in to get the cover. Wisconsin used 7 plays to run the clock out from the 4 min mark on.
I had no money here. We discussed how something weird would happen to determine this cover. I think the few of us decided that would be in Wisconsin's favor, but alas, Rutgers received the money. Wisconsin 46-213 on the ground was the biggest factor here.
I am just now seeing this Northwestern and Howard box. The cats had a little scare late, with 14 late Howard points. Howard actually had 19 more yards in this game. There isn't much to gleam from this one.
Iowa with another home win, this one 20-14 over the Boilermakers. The Iowa QB, in place of Cade, was 6-21 for 110 yards. Good gracious. Purdue had more yards and many more 1st downs. They lost the turnover battle though. Let us look at a few drives...
Iowa 1st touchdown was 2 plays, the score being on a 67-yard run.
The next 10 drives went like this...
Punt
Interception
Missed FG
Punt
Interception
FG (drive was 4 plays, -4 yards)
Punt
Punt Punt
Missed FG
Purdue then had a solid drive near the end of the half to make the score 10-7 at halftime.
Iowa was in form control in the 4th. Thy missed a FG at the 20-7 score with 4:53 left. Purdue grabbed a late score and even got the ball back -- but they went 4 and out to finish their chances.
Ohio State struggled for more than half the game before finding a lot of MHJ and shutting down the terps after they led 17-10. At the end of the thread, you'll see how this game changed in the 2h. Take note of 2h yards and yards per play. The wrong team covered, but at least Maryland was trying till the end (creating those opportunities for OSU to score 3 more times)
Michigan absolutely demolished Minnesota. I will say, the quotes from PJ after the game were something else. He was highly impressed and think this is the best he has faced in 11 years of coaching. His praise was several paragraphs worth. He credited his own team for playing hard etc, but simply noted there was nothing they could do.
For the 2nd straight game, every Michigan player but the 2nd team LS played in a road game (less travel on the road),
These last two road games have been pretty darn CLEAN for Michigan. Last week, zero penalties. This week, one in the 4th (plus a kick out of bounds). They are just very sound fundamentally. Minny QB was 5-15 overall. I will say, frosh Taylor at RB impressed myself for Minnesota. Michigan only had 191 on ground, but it was an efficient effort. JJ was once again terrific, including some TD runs. He needs to stay careful running, but if he needed to take over a game with his legs -- he certainly could.
Bottom line -- workmanlike effort.
Two more like that, and then a bye week to gear up for the last 4 games which will be the ultimate test in order to win a 3rd straight championship.
Onto Week #7
Penn State vs Umass
The Lions will prepare for their biggest game of the year to date with a visit from the Minutemen. This is lined at 43-58. That sets up a team total of 50.5 or so. Wow. I would think they are in total exhibition mode here, but you never know with ole Jimmy Franklin! The game that pops in my head here, and really has no relevance but I'll reminisce anyways -- Nova @ PSU back in late September of 2021. The Lions led 31-3 entering the 4th only to give up 14 late points to screw me on some type of bet. THAT is why I remember! Anyways, I actually would lean over here, as I think Umass gets a few points. Or perhaps their TT is a good bet. We'll likely see a 7.5, so something to chew on.
Rutgers vs Michigan State
Once again, one of the greatest rivalries in sports renews. This is a huge "trophy" game. The battle for the "SITUATION" trophy has most definitely produced some classics over the years. Will Mike do the coinflip on Saturday?? We can only hope!
Anyways, big game here for Rutgers. In making the next step, these are games you must win, at home versus lesser teams. Please do not take that offensively Spartan fans, that is simply the state of the team right now. Between Mike Dantonio's lackluster recruiting his last few years + Mel's reluctance to recruit much more than portal players -- the depth and talent is simply lacking right now. Houser should get the start. I hope for Barnett and company that the week off let them concentrate on getting their minds on football in totality, and away from Tugger-Gate. Line is 5.5 and 41 currently. I do think Rutgers wins, but something tells me this will be a hard fought one. No bets, as of now.
Maryland vs Illinois
The Terps acquitted themselves pretty nicely through 35-40 minutes inside the shoe last week. Then, the MHJ show started and Maryland gave away several short fields. The final score was misleading, but the bottom line is they came up short again versus one of the Big 3. The come home to face an Illinois team that to be honest, isn't improving as we go at all. This is a win, but they better not slumber around early on. The 14.5/52 seems about right, as the Illini defense won't just lie down. Win this, and then another winnable game before the next big one -- in Happy Valley. They'll roll into November likely 7-1 and have two more spoiler chances. As of now, no thoughts on bets. I would want to watch and see how they come out.
Wisconsin vs Iowa
A rivalry renewed. Wisconsin has to be watching film and salivating at facing this QB with accuracy issues. The Badgers are favored by 9.5 in another low total Iowa game, 37. If they can keep a clean sheet, Wisconsin should win this by 10-17 points. That is a big 'if' versus a good defense. I do think we'll see Wisconsin put together some really good efforts coming in. That is generally how things go with a new, good coach. Still pondering this one.
Ohio State vs Purdue
Listen, this isn't your older cousins Buckeye's. They are not going to consistently light up the scoreboard like they did for the better part of 10 years. This isn't the QB, and this certainly is not the OL to sustain great offense. They are always a talented team, and have two future stud NFL wide-outs out there. They are a top 10 team, but they can be had. Notre Dame had them, and they are showing to be a pretty average team (to my surprise). All that being said, I expect they will improve each week this season. That has been their general trajectory the few times they have looked 'off' in the first half of the season. Next week is PSU. This is a stay healthy and take care of business week. Similar spread to last week, but the total is only at 51.5. That might be something I look at to be honest. More on that later in the week.
Michigan vs Indiana
So, we have finally gotten a few TT's and game overs in for Michigan as they hit the road-- plus easy covers. I'm glad that is paying off and they are showing 'some' prowess on the scoreboard. They return home for an absolute garbage game vs the Hoosiers. This is definitely a hefty tariff of 34.5 and a total in the high 40.s Last week was the most points UM has given up, which was 10. So, these game totals have been mostly dependent on the Wolverine offense. The home games have produced unders, and the opposite on the road. Some of that is timing in the schedule though. Cap this total with IU in mind, Michigan should get within 3-4 of their TT either way. Sparty on deck, then a bye week. This is a stay healthy and spread the wealth game. Be mindful... but this is one of the deepest teams in America. Tuttle has settled in at QB. That helps if you need a late score.
Alright, enough babbling by myself.
Underneath, a few screenshots from last week I took of the Mary-OSU box at halftime and with 2 mins left (so any potential garbage score by Maryland didn't skew the numbers).
Also, a picture of The Situation Trophy up for grabs in Piscataway
Lastly, Harbaugh was roped into being part of the turnover celebration after Will J's pick 6. Many hate him, but he is simply a players coach that loves his kids. Bottom line.
Let us peek back at last week. Overall, pretty happy with how the conference treated myself on a few live bets. The late pre-game add of Over in OSU was a bad cap, simple as that. We almost front-doored that one late though. Michigan TT's live half and game were very satisfying. The Illinois 3rd quarter under was definitely a sweat with turnovers, but overall, the correct call. That was all for myself, in the land of 16/18 teams.
Friday night, the Huskers handled Illinois on the scoreboard. Now, the yards were nearly even -- but 140 of those 310 Illini yards came via their FIRST and LAST drives. Each of those resulted in zero points. Nebraska ran the ball very well in this game. Both teams had turnover issues.
I did not see much of the Rutgers and Wisconsin game. In fact, the last I saw was 3-0 in the 2nd and suddenly there was two late tuddy's to make the 1st half margin nearly insurmountable. So, how did this game change?
Wisconsin led 3-0 for well over a quarter. Then, they had a very impressive drive that ended with a fumble inside the 5. Undeterred, they made the stop and got the ball back on their own 39 and drove down for the score. The next possession Rutgers finally for their offense going and drove down inside the Wisconsin 10. Gavin tossed a 95-yard interception return though with less than 10 seconds left in the half. So, we went from possibly 10-7/1--3 at halftime to 17-0 Badgers.
As for the rest of the game, Wisconsin had what looks to be a vintage Badger 5+ min drive beginning before and ending after 'jump around. This led to 24-6 and a cover looked to be coming. Not so fast. Rutgers once again got to near the Wisconsin 10 with 5 minutes left but were SOD's. That was 0-2 at this point inside the RZ with a pick 6 involved. Well, Wisconsin promptly fumbled a few plays later. Rutgers finally punched one in to get the cover. Wisconsin used 7 plays to run the clock out from the 4 min mark on.
I had no money here. We discussed how something weird would happen to determine this cover. I think the few of us decided that would be in Wisconsin's favor, but alas, Rutgers received the money. Wisconsin 46-213 on the ground was the biggest factor here.
I am just now seeing this Northwestern and Howard box. The cats had a little scare late, with 14 late Howard points. Howard actually had 19 more yards in this game. There isn't much to gleam from this one.
Iowa with another home win, this one 20-14 over the Boilermakers. The Iowa QB, in place of Cade, was 6-21 for 110 yards. Good gracious. Purdue had more yards and many more 1st downs. They lost the turnover battle though. Let us look at a few drives...
Iowa 1st touchdown was 2 plays, the score being on a 67-yard run.
The next 10 drives went like this...
Punt
Interception
Missed FG
Punt
Interception
FG (drive was 4 plays, -4 yards)
Punt
Punt Punt
Missed FG
Purdue then had a solid drive near the end of the half to make the score 10-7 at halftime.
Iowa was in form control in the 4th. Thy missed a FG at the 20-7 score with 4:53 left. Purdue grabbed a late score and even got the ball back -- but they went 4 and out to finish their chances.
Ohio State struggled for more than half the game before finding a lot of MHJ and shutting down the terps after they led 17-10. At the end of the thread, you'll see how this game changed in the 2h. Take note of 2h yards and yards per play. The wrong team covered, but at least Maryland was trying till the end (creating those opportunities for OSU to score 3 more times)
Michigan absolutely demolished Minnesota. I will say, the quotes from PJ after the game were something else. He was highly impressed and think this is the best he has faced in 11 years of coaching. His praise was several paragraphs worth. He credited his own team for playing hard etc, but simply noted there was nothing they could do.
For the 2nd straight game, every Michigan player but the 2nd team LS played in a road game (less travel on the road),
These last two road games have been pretty darn CLEAN for Michigan. Last week, zero penalties. This week, one in the 4th (plus a kick out of bounds). They are just very sound fundamentally. Minny QB was 5-15 overall. I will say, frosh Taylor at RB impressed myself for Minnesota. Michigan only had 191 on ground, but it was an efficient effort. JJ was once again terrific, including some TD runs. He needs to stay careful running, but if he needed to take over a game with his legs -- he certainly could.
Bottom line -- workmanlike effort.
Two more like that, and then a bye week to gear up for the last 4 games which will be the ultimate test in order to win a 3rd straight championship.
Onto Week #7
Penn State vs Umass
The Lions will prepare for their biggest game of the year to date with a visit from the Minutemen. This is lined at 43-58. That sets up a team total of 50.5 or so. Wow. I would think they are in total exhibition mode here, but you never know with ole Jimmy Franklin! The game that pops in my head here, and really has no relevance but I'll reminisce anyways -- Nova @ PSU back in late September of 2021. The Lions led 31-3 entering the 4th only to give up 14 late points to screw me on some type of bet. THAT is why I remember! Anyways, I actually would lean over here, as I think Umass gets a few points. Or perhaps their TT is a good bet. We'll likely see a 7.5, so something to chew on.
Rutgers vs Michigan State
Once again, one of the greatest rivalries in sports renews. This is a huge "trophy" game. The battle for the "SITUATION" trophy has most definitely produced some classics over the years. Will Mike do the coinflip on Saturday?? We can only hope!
Anyways, big game here for Rutgers. In making the next step, these are games you must win, at home versus lesser teams. Please do not take that offensively Spartan fans, that is simply the state of the team right now. Between Mike Dantonio's lackluster recruiting his last few years + Mel's reluctance to recruit much more than portal players -- the depth and talent is simply lacking right now. Houser should get the start. I hope for Barnett and company that the week off let them concentrate on getting their minds on football in totality, and away from Tugger-Gate. Line is 5.5 and 41 currently. I do think Rutgers wins, but something tells me this will be a hard fought one. No bets, as of now.
Maryland vs Illinois
The Terps acquitted themselves pretty nicely through 35-40 minutes inside the shoe last week. Then, the MHJ show started and Maryland gave away several short fields. The final score was misleading, but the bottom line is they came up short again versus one of the Big 3. The come home to face an Illinois team that to be honest, isn't improving as we go at all. This is a win, but they better not slumber around early on. The 14.5/52 seems about right, as the Illini defense won't just lie down. Win this, and then another winnable game before the next big one -- in Happy Valley. They'll roll into November likely 7-1 and have two more spoiler chances. As of now, no thoughts on bets. I would want to watch and see how they come out.
Wisconsin vs Iowa
A rivalry renewed. Wisconsin has to be watching film and salivating at facing this QB with accuracy issues. The Badgers are favored by 9.5 in another low total Iowa game, 37. If they can keep a clean sheet, Wisconsin should win this by 10-17 points. That is a big 'if' versus a good defense. I do think we'll see Wisconsin put together some really good efforts coming in. That is generally how things go with a new, good coach. Still pondering this one.
Ohio State vs Purdue
Listen, this isn't your older cousins Buckeye's. They are not going to consistently light up the scoreboard like they did for the better part of 10 years. This isn't the QB, and this certainly is not the OL to sustain great offense. They are always a talented team, and have two future stud NFL wide-outs out there. They are a top 10 team, but they can be had. Notre Dame had them, and they are showing to be a pretty average team (to my surprise). All that being said, I expect they will improve each week this season. That has been their general trajectory the few times they have looked 'off' in the first half of the season. Next week is PSU. This is a stay healthy and take care of business week. Similar spread to last week, but the total is only at 51.5. That might be something I look at to be honest. More on that later in the week.
Michigan vs Indiana
So, we have finally gotten a few TT's and game overs in for Michigan as they hit the road-- plus easy covers. I'm glad that is paying off and they are showing 'some' prowess on the scoreboard. They return home for an absolute garbage game vs the Hoosiers. This is definitely a hefty tariff of 34.5 and a total in the high 40.s Last week was the most points UM has given up, which was 10. So, these game totals have been mostly dependent on the Wolverine offense. The home games have produced unders, and the opposite on the road. Some of that is timing in the schedule though. Cap this total with IU in mind, Michigan should get within 3-4 of their TT either way. Sparty on deck, then a bye week. This is a stay healthy and spread the wealth game. Be mindful... but this is one of the deepest teams in America. Tuttle has settled in at QB. That helps if you need a late score.
Alright, enough babbling by myself.
Underneath, a few screenshots from last week I took of the Mary-OSU box at halftime and with 2 mins left (so any potential garbage score by Maryland didn't skew the numbers).
Also, a picture of The Situation Trophy up for grabs in Piscataway
Lastly, Harbaugh was roped into being part of the turnover celebration after Will J's pick 6. Many hate him, but he is simply a players coach that loves his kids. Bottom line.
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