Apologies on getting this started 24+ hours late...
Busy weekend + procedure yesterday left me a bit groggy...
Alas, let's talk about this shit conference...
After two weeks of play, UM and PSU are playing at levels I expected of them.
Ohio State is about where I thought, stuck with 2 QB's and not having an electric offense for once. With that being said, this team will be a force come the last 4-6 weeks. There is simply too much talent not to be.
Iowa is the same sack of offensive ineptitude that they have been for years. They'll win 9+ games, but it will ugly.
Nebraska has an obvious QB problem.
Wisconsin was not good defensively vs Wazzou. I understand they got down by DD's in the 2nd quarter, but you have some damn good running backs. Use them.
Minnesota is Iowa lite this year.
Michigan State will be that team we talk about in November needing a win to get bowl eligible. I'll have better insight on them in a few weeks. This Washington game won't be a true tale, The Maryland and Iowa games following will be the insight I personally need for the last two months of games.
Northwestern won by 31 on Saturday. That is a very MISLEADING final though.
Rutgers is damn solid. I will say that isn't exactly the most representative box either, but in the end they did mostly what I thought in that game.
Purdue, who knows?
Indiana is who we thought they were.
Maryland rebounded nicely from a bad start on Saturday. I would assume we'll see the usual out of them, fade towards the end, but that matchup of UM-Mary the week before The Game will be highly interesting.
I'm missing one team, but that is my quick takes...
Michigan recap:
I think I was one of only people on here/SM that was on the Under, and that was hardly in doubt. The defense was smothering, despite missing many in the secondary. The passing game was highly efficient. The running game is very bland right now, but that will improve.
I know people think that Michigan should be winning these games 55-7 and whatnot, but you need to rewatch these 1H's to understand why these first two unders were really easy. They are basically getting 4 FULL drives in the 1st halves. With all the extra passing, this may confuse some people...
Here is why:
-New Clock rules definitely have an effect.
-Michigan rarely snaps with double-digit seconds on the clock, unless near the goal-line (which they mess up half the time)
-JJ is passing a lot more, and that is good. The problem is, he is so efficient, that the ball isn't hitting the ground. This is the same as Corum and Edwards hitting for 6-12 yards on the ground vs bad teams last year.
-Even with a hurry-up UNLV team, the clock didn't stop on those sacks at all. UNLV ran enough as well to keep things moving
-No big turnovers as of yet. Those will come, and add some short drives. We'll see value at some point on some overs.
There will be a time and place for UM overs, but no reason to force that right now. They are a legit top 3 team, but that doesn't mean they will win by 40-50 every time with the new changes in CFB. JH and the staff do not care to pull out all the stops in these early games, hence no downfield shots at all. Trust me, this drives the fanbase nuts. I sat and listened to the fans near me on Saturday groaning about no deep balls as JJ was 13 of his first 14 passing. People crack me up.
As far as the running game...
Blake is working his way back confidence-wise. As Mike Hart said, he's trying to break a big one each time, instead of taking what is there. They also have rotated a lot of OL so far. They have a legit 8-10 starters, but they need to find the combo that works the best together. Don has simply had no holes to get through in his opportunities. This will change.
Overall, JJ has been great. I hope he stays healthy because the backups are playing very badly so far. We'll see. The staff is trying to get all 5 time in these first three game to evaluate.
Special Teams need to be shored up as well. That, along with an injury to JJ are what can ruin Jim's best Michigan team.
Okay, Week #3
We get a little Friday night action with Maryland hosting Virginia. The Hoos are not too good, and you would think that the Terps will do well here in a primetime spot. The total is under 50, so we are expecting a pretty low-scoring game overall. I would think the Terps get into the low 30's here. 34-14 enters my head, but I need to look into things a bit more. I was encouraged by the Terps offense looking at the box vs Charlotte.
BGSU enters the Big House as 40+ pt underdogs. The oddsmakers have correctly adjusted the total a bit here. In capping a total like this, I start with the opposing team and get some parameters for what they could/should score and go from there. We need to look at Michigan's first two 4th quarters and factor that in. The deep backups have given up two lengthy, time-consuming TD drives. That could help an over and potential dog cover. This does feel like a week UM receives a few short fields via the defense as well. I know UM wants to see some backup QB play as well, that could potentially remove JJ earlier. We'll see. I'll be monitoring the status of the secondary guys, and whether they wait one more week to bring them back. Early prediction is 45-10.
Big Noon features the Nittany Lions traveling to Illinois to face Fat Bret and the Illini. Browsing forums and SM today, the love for this 'dominating' PSU squad laying a few tuddies is pretty high. I am not saying I disagree with them, but this is Big Ten play + road game + Allar's first start on the road. Illinois looked pretty blah versus Toledo and just brutal in Lawrence. Last year was a nice season, but I am afraid they have digressed heavily. This is a game I would rather get a look at early on and bet live. So far, Allar has been very solid. PSU looks to be what I thought they would be (future I bet on Championship Monday last January). We'll have a much better read these next few weeks.
Indiana is a DD underdog at home to Louisville. This represents how bad the Hoosiers are, and seemingly how improved Louisville is. You couldn't get me near this game with Hunt's dick.
The Ga Southern and Wisconsin total is 64.5. Fondy must be rolling over right now. I have seen it all. Now, I need to cap this one still, but I'd love to read that Fickell and Co will be running, running and running some more. As they should be. If so, this could be a nice under play. I will say, the Ga Southern and Nebraska game last year creeps into my head (45-42).
The Heels host Row the Boat and company and are laying just over a TD. Talk to me @carolinablue !!
The Academic Bowl is back again, with Duke and Northwestern facing off in Durham. I was hoping that NW scoring 38 last week would move this number to 14 or less, but alas, that is not the case. We all saw Duke in Game 1. They should win this pretty handily. They rolled Lafayette last week, as they should. This is a comfortable Duke win, but how comfortable? Might be worth a look at a NW tt UNDER.
Bronco nation invades Iowa to play the high-scoring Hawkeyes. Again, this is a comfortable win. Is this the game Iowa finally breaks loose on offense? Cade has played WMU before, when they were much better. A mid 30's TT isn't exactly what you look for in any Iowa game, but they should get 30+ here.
Very intriguing game in Columbus. The WKU tempo machine heads into town. This seems to be the type of offense that the Bucks give up points to. I'll let the Ohio State brethren correct me if need be. We should see extra possessions here, and this is a 'get well' game potentially for the Bucks offense. Prior to this year, I am all over overs in this game. Now, I have to think a bit more and maybe get creative. Hilltopper TT at 17.5 has potential. a first half over, in general does as well. I'll get more into this game as the week progresses.
Washington heads to East Landfill for the first game of the Harlon Barnett era. Aside from everything that is happening with Tucker, I said during week one Boise and Washington to take notes for this game. The Huskies could not run vs Boise. So, they gave up early and just threw for days on them. I expect similar here. MSU has a good run defense. But, that secondary has been awful for a few years now. Penix loves playing Sparty. Washington TT (s) are in play here. I do expect a pretty rowdy crowd though. We have a 70 degree late summer 5pm start, on 'The Cock' (Peacock TV). I am sure some emotions will be there for MSU, plus Washington dusted them last year.
Nebraska needs a win. NIU heads to town. I'll let @cubsker and @Colin Wynner chime here.
The Cuse heads to West Lafayette for a rematch of last years thriller in the dome. I remember that game quite well. There was not much scoring, grabbed a live over, and needed every part of that wild 4th quarter to get it(42 points in the 4th). What you think @PaintCrew ? Tough to fully judge the Orange off games versus Western and Colgate.
Alright, chat it up!
Any UM questions, holler them in. I have a long night ahead of me, so ready to talk as much as you would like!
Busy weekend + procedure yesterday left me a bit groggy...
Alas, let's talk about this shit conference...
After two weeks of play, UM and PSU are playing at levels I expected of them.
Ohio State is about where I thought, stuck with 2 QB's and not having an electric offense for once. With that being said, this team will be a force come the last 4-6 weeks. There is simply too much talent not to be.
Iowa is the same sack of offensive ineptitude that they have been for years. They'll win 9+ games, but it will ugly.
Nebraska has an obvious QB problem.
Wisconsin was not good defensively vs Wazzou. I understand they got down by DD's in the 2nd quarter, but you have some damn good running backs. Use them.
Minnesota is Iowa lite this year.
Michigan State will be that team we talk about in November needing a win to get bowl eligible. I'll have better insight on them in a few weeks. This Washington game won't be a true tale, The Maryland and Iowa games following will be the insight I personally need for the last two months of games.
Northwestern won by 31 on Saturday. That is a very MISLEADING final though.
Rutgers is damn solid. I will say that isn't exactly the most representative box either, but in the end they did mostly what I thought in that game.
Purdue, who knows?
Indiana is who we thought they were.
Maryland rebounded nicely from a bad start on Saturday. I would assume we'll see the usual out of them, fade towards the end, but that matchup of UM-Mary the week before The Game will be highly interesting.
I'm missing one team, but that is my quick takes...
Michigan recap:
I think I was one of only people on here/SM that was on the Under, and that was hardly in doubt. The defense was smothering, despite missing many in the secondary. The passing game was highly efficient. The running game is very bland right now, but that will improve.
I know people think that Michigan should be winning these games 55-7 and whatnot, but you need to rewatch these 1H's to understand why these first two unders were really easy. They are basically getting 4 FULL drives in the 1st halves. With all the extra passing, this may confuse some people...
Here is why:
-New Clock rules definitely have an effect.
-Michigan rarely snaps with double-digit seconds on the clock, unless near the goal-line (which they mess up half the time)
-JJ is passing a lot more, and that is good. The problem is, he is so efficient, that the ball isn't hitting the ground. This is the same as Corum and Edwards hitting for 6-12 yards on the ground vs bad teams last year.
-Even with a hurry-up UNLV team, the clock didn't stop on those sacks at all. UNLV ran enough as well to keep things moving
-No big turnovers as of yet. Those will come, and add some short drives. We'll see value at some point on some overs.
There will be a time and place for UM overs, but no reason to force that right now. They are a legit top 3 team, but that doesn't mean they will win by 40-50 every time with the new changes in CFB. JH and the staff do not care to pull out all the stops in these early games, hence no downfield shots at all. Trust me, this drives the fanbase nuts. I sat and listened to the fans near me on Saturday groaning about no deep balls as JJ was 13 of his first 14 passing. People crack me up.
As far as the running game...
Blake is working his way back confidence-wise. As Mike Hart said, he's trying to break a big one each time, instead of taking what is there. They also have rotated a lot of OL so far. They have a legit 8-10 starters, but they need to find the combo that works the best together. Don has simply had no holes to get through in his opportunities. This will change.
Overall, JJ has been great. I hope he stays healthy because the backups are playing very badly so far. We'll see. The staff is trying to get all 5 time in these first three game to evaluate.
Special Teams need to be shored up as well. That, along with an injury to JJ are what can ruin Jim's best Michigan team.
Okay, Week #3
We get a little Friday night action with Maryland hosting Virginia. The Hoos are not too good, and you would think that the Terps will do well here in a primetime spot. The total is under 50, so we are expecting a pretty low-scoring game overall. I would think the Terps get into the low 30's here. 34-14 enters my head, but I need to look into things a bit more. I was encouraged by the Terps offense looking at the box vs Charlotte.
BGSU enters the Big House as 40+ pt underdogs. The oddsmakers have correctly adjusted the total a bit here. In capping a total like this, I start with the opposing team and get some parameters for what they could/should score and go from there. We need to look at Michigan's first two 4th quarters and factor that in. The deep backups have given up two lengthy, time-consuming TD drives. That could help an over and potential dog cover. This does feel like a week UM receives a few short fields via the defense as well. I know UM wants to see some backup QB play as well, that could potentially remove JJ earlier. We'll see. I'll be monitoring the status of the secondary guys, and whether they wait one more week to bring them back. Early prediction is 45-10.
Big Noon features the Nittany Lions traveling to Illinois to face Fat Bret and the Illini. Browsing forums and SM today, the love for this 'dominating' PSU squad laying a few tuddies is pretty high. I am not saying I disagree with them, but this is Big Ten play + road game + Allar's first start on the road. Illinois looked pretty blah versus Toledo and just brutal in Lawrence. Last year was a nice season, but I am afraid they have digressed heavily. This is a game I would rather get a look at early on and bet live. So far, Allar has been very solid. PSU looks to be what I thought they would be (future I bet on Championship Monday last January). We'll have a much better read these next few weeks.
Indiana is a DD underdog at home to Louisville. This represents how bad the Hoosiers are, and seemingly how improved Louisville is. You couldn't get me near this game with Hunt's dick.
The Ga Southern and Wisconsin total is 64.5. Fondy must be rolling over right now. I have seen it all. Now, I need to cap this one still, but I'd love to read that Fickell and Co will be running, running and running some more. As they should be. If so, this could be a nice under play. I will say, the Ga Southern and Nebraska game last year creeps into my head (45-42).
The Heels host Row the Boat and company and are laying just over a TD. Talk to me @carolinablue !!
The Academic Bowl is back again, with Duke and Northwestern facing off in Durham. I was hoping that NW scoring 38 last week would move this number to 14 or less, but alas, that is not the case. We all saw Duke in Game 1. They should win this pretty handily. They rolled Lafayette last week, as they should. This is a comfortable Duke win, but how comfortable? Might be worth a look at a NW tt UNDER.
Bronco nation invades Iowa to play the high-scoring Hawkeyes. Again, this is a comfortable win. Is this the game Iowa finally breaks loose on offense? Cade has played WMU before, when they were much better. A mid 30's TT isn't exactly what you look for in any Iowa game, but they should get 30+ here.
Very intriguing game in Columbus. The WKU tempo machine heads into town. This seems to be the type of offense that the Bucks give up points to. I'll let the Ohio State brethren correct me if need be. We should see extra possessions here, and this is a 'get well' game potentially for the Bucks offense. Prior to this year, I am all over overs in this game. Now, I have to think a bit more and maybe get creative. Hilltopper TT at 17.5 has potential. a first half over, in general does as well. I'll get more into this game as the week progresses.
Washington heads to East Landfill for the first game of the Harlon Barnett era. Aside from everything that is happening with Tucker, I said during week one Boise and Washington to take notes for this game. The Huskies could not run vs Boise. So, they gave up early and just threw for days on them. I expect similar here. MSU has a good run defense. But, that secondary has been awful for a few years now. Penix loves playing Sparty. Washington TT (s) are in play here. I do expect a pretty rowdy crowd though. We have a 70 degree late summer 5pm start, on 'The Cock' (Peacock TV). I am sure some emotions will be there for MSU, plus Washington dusted them last year.
Nebraska needs a win. NIU heads to town. I'll let @cubsker and @Colin Wynner chime here.
The Cuse heads to West Lafayette for a rematch of last years thriller in the dome. I remember that game quite well. There was not much scoring, grabbed a live over, and needed every part of that wild 4th quarter to get it(42 points in the 4th). What you think @PaintCrew ? Tough to fully judge the Orange off games versus Western and Colgate.
Alright, chat it up!
Any UM questions, holler them in. I have a long night ahead of me, so ready to talk as much as you would like!
